Zira vs Sumqayıt Result & Analysis

Date: 17/05/2026

Time: 14:00

Final 2-1

Zira

46%

30%

24%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Sumqayıt

Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa

Referee: -

Match preview & prediction

Zira is expected to emerge victorious at home against Sumqayit, with the home win percentage standing at 46%. This outcome is also the model's selection, citing it as the most likely result. The match is expected to be a low-scoring affair, with an average of 2.3 goals expected. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a probability of 14%.

Zira has a strong home record, scoring an average of 2 goals and conceding just 0.67 per match against weaker opponents. In contrast, Sumqayit has struggled on the road, scoring 1 goal and conceding 1.4 per match against stronger opponents.

The model suggests selecting Under 3.5 goals, which it believes will hit with an 80.3% probability, offering a slight edge. The draw percentage stands at 30%, while the away win percentage is 24%. Other suggested picks include the home win at 46%, and the under 3.5 goals, both considered high-probability selections.

Results analysis

The win extends Zira's recent run, but it was their opponents Sumqayıt who were coming off two straight defeats. The final score was 2-1, confirming the home win result. The model correctly predicted the favourite, Zira to win, with a pre-match probability of 46%. The model's call was correct, as the actual result was indeed a home win. The model's selection, Zira to win, was the favourite. The model's selection of Under 3.5 hit, with a probability of 80.3%, while the most likely total goals was 2, with a probability of 28%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Zira win✓ Hit

46.2%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

Draw✗ Miss

30.1%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

Sumqayıt win✗ Miss

23.7%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Zira

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.1

Avg scored

1.1

Avg conceded

1.0

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.27	1.03	1.33	0.93	1.20	1.13
vs Stronger (3)	1.00	1.67	1.00	2.00	1.00	1.00
vs Similar (10)	0.80	1.40	1.00	1.50	0.67	1.33
vs Weaker (17)	1.59	0.71	1.56	0.44	1.62	1.00
Clean sheet %	40% (+9pp vs league)

This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Sumqayıt

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.6

Avg scored

1.0

Avg conceded

1.6

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.27	1.43	1.40	1.60	1.13	1.27
vs Stronger (16)	1.12	2.06	1.38	2.62	0.88	1.50
vs Similar (11)	1.45	0.45	1.17	0.50	1.80	0.40
vs Weaker (3)	1.33	1.67	3.00	0.00	0.50	2.50
Clean sheet %	27% (-4pp vs league)

This opponent (Zira) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

67.7%

Under 1.5

32.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

39.9%

Under 2.5

60.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under

Over 3.5

19.7%

Under 3.5

80.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Both teams to scoreActual: Yes

Yes

45.9%

54.1%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1

14.0%

1-0

12.7%

0-0

11.5%

2-0

9.6%

2-1 ✓

8.7%

0-1

8.0%

1-2

5.8%

3-0

4.4%

Zira goals ↓

	Sumqayıt goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	12%	8.0%	4.2%	1.3%	0.3%
1	13%	14%	5.8%	1.8%	0.4%
2	9.6%	8.7%	4.0%	1.2%	0.3%
3	4.4%	4.0%	1.8%	0.6%	0.1%
4	1.5%	1.4%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zira goals (down), columns = Sumqayıt goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Sabah FA

2.36

Qarabag

2.09

Neftchi Baku

1.79

Turan

1.79

Zira

1.61

Araz

1.39

Sumqayıt

1.19

Şamaxı FK

1.15

Imisli FK

1.06

Qabala

0.88

Kapaz

0.82

Karvan

0.45

Mingəçevir

0.00

Zira is 0.42 points better than Sumqayıt in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 1.19).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Sabah FA

2.27

Qarabag

2.15

Neftchi Baku

1.73

Araz

1.33

Turan

1.33

Sumqayıt

1.31

Zira

1.30

Qabala

1.00

Şamaxı FK

0.94

Kapaz

0.76

Imisli FK

0.72

Karvan

0.70

Mingəçevir

0.00

Zira is 0.01 goals worse than Sumqayıt in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.31).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Sabah FA

0.76

Turan

0.82

Qarabag

0.82

Neftchi Baku

0.97

Zira

1.09

Şamaxı FK

1.21

Imisli FK

1.25

Qabala

1.44

Sumqayıt

1.53

Araz

1.76

Kapaz

1.85

Mingəçevir

2.00

Karvan

2.00

Zira is 0.44 goals better than Sumqayıt in terms of goals conceded per game (1.09 vs 1.53).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Under 3.5	80.3%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

QAR (25)

€25m

SF (24)

€17m

ZIR (23)

€12m

ARA (19)

€6m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

QAR (9)

€8m

ZIR (10)

€6m

SF (7)

€5m

ARA (7)

€3m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SF (7)

€5m

QAR (3)

€3m

ARA (5)

€2m

ZIR (3)

€1m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

QAR (13)

€14m

SF (10)

€7m

ZIR (10)

€6m

ARA (7)

€2m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Zira vs Sumqayıt · H/A from ZIR

Date	H/A	Game	Score
08/02/26	A	Sumqayıt Vs ZIR	2-3
25/10/25	H	ZIR Vs Sumqayıt	1-0
20/04/25	H	ZIR Vs Sumqayıt	3-1
15/02/25	A	Sumqayıt Vs ZIR	0-3
30/11/24	H	ZIR Vs Sumqayıt	4-1
22/09/24	A	Sumqayıt Vs ZIR	0-2
12/04/24	A	Sumqayıt Vs ZIR	0-0
13/02/24	H	ZIR Vs Sumqayıt	0-0

Zira

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
08/05/26	A	Imisli FK Vs ZIR	0-0
03/05/26	H	ZIR Vs Qabala	1-0
27/04/26	A	Turan Vs ZIR	1-1
17/04/26	H	ZIR Vs Neftchi Baku	1-1
11/04/26	A	Sabah FA Vs ZIR	2-2
07/04/26	H	ZIR Vs Şamaxı FK	1-1
19/03/26	A	Karvan Vs ZIR	0-1
14/03/26	H	ZIR Vs Qarabag	1-3
09/03/26	H	ZIR Vs Kapaz	2-2
27/02/26	A	Araz Vs ZIR	0-1

Sumqayıt

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
09/05/26	H	SUM Vs Araz	2-1
02/05/26	A	Kapaz Vs SUM	2-1
25/04/26	A	Imisli FK Vs SUM	0-2
19/04/26	H	SUM Vs Qabala	1-0
12/04/26	A	Turan Vs SUM	2-1
05/04/26	H	SUM Vs Neftchi Baku	1-3
19/03/26	A	Sabah FA Vs SUM	3-1
13/03/26	H	SUM Vs Şamaxı FK	0-1
07/03/26	A	Karvan Vs SUM	1-1
27/02/26	A	Kapaz Vs SUM	3-0

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Zira

Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa

Recent: 3 Wins / 6 Draws / 1 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	DDDWD	1.84
Home	DLDDW	1.84
Away	WWDDD	1.84

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	50%	48%	52%
AVG goals	2.34	2.36	2.32
Over 1.5 %	68%	68%	68%
Over 2.5 %	40%	40%	40%
Over 3.5 %	22%	28%	16%
Scored	1.42	1.48	1.36
Conceded	0.92	0.88	0.96
BTTS	52%	56%	48%
Clean Sheet	42%	44%	40%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

Sumqayıt

Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa

Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LWWLW	1.04
Home	DLLWW	1.08
Away	DLLWL	1.00

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	28%	29%	27%
AVG goals	2.58	2.88	2.31
Over 1.5 %	72%	75%	69%
Over 2.5 %	50%	58%	42%
Over 3.5 %	26%	33%	19%
Scored	1.08	1.25	0.92
Conceded	1.50	1.62	1.38
BTTS	44%	46%	42%
Clean Sheet	24%	25%	23%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 13. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Sabah FA	33	78	73%	2.4	75	25	+50	3.0	76%	61%	39%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	17	5	5	7	2.3	0.8	-
2	Qarabag	33	69	64%	2.1	71	27	+44	3.0	76%	48%	27%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	25	8	3	14	2.2	0.8	-
3	Neftchi Baku	33	59	48%	1.8	57	32	+25	2.7	73%	55%	36%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.7	1.0	-
4	Turan	33	59	52%	1.8	44	27	+17	2.2	67%	45%	9%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.3	0.8	-
5	Zira	33	53	39%	1.6	43	36	+7	2.4	70%	42%	27%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	12	6	1	6	1.3	1.1	-
6	Araz	33	46	39%	1.4	44	58	-14	3.1	88%	58%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	6	3	2	2	1.3	1.8	-
7	Sumqayıt	32	38	34%	1.2	42	49	-7	2.8	78%	56%	28%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.3	1.5	-
8	Şamaxı FK	33	38	27%	1.2	31	40	-9	2.2	67%	45%	15%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.9	1.2	-
9	Imisli FK	32	34	22%	1.1	23	40	-17	2.0	53%	31%	19%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.7	1.2	-
10	Qabala	34	30	24%	0.9	34	49	-15	2.4	68%	41%	21%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	1.4	-
11	Kapaz	33	27	24%	0.8	25	61	-36	2.6	76%	45%	24%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.8	1.8	-
12	Karvan	33	15	9%	0.5	23	66	-43	2.7	82%	48%	18%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.7	2.0	-
13	Mingəçevir	1	0	0%	0.0	0	2	-2	2.0	100%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.0	2.0	-

Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

← all matches

Zira vs Sumqayıt Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Zira

Sumqayıt

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Zira

Sumqayıt

📊 12. Overall Statistics

🏆 13. League Table

A Pro feature