Zira are tipped to edge Sumqayit in a 52% favourite home win, the model seeing a 28% chance of a draw and a 20% chance for the visitors. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly open game, with the most likely total of two goals carrying a 27% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.3% chance. Zira, playing at home against a weaker side, have been scoring an average of 1.5 goals and conceding only 0.62, while Sumqayit, on the road to a stronger opponent, average 0.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.9%), Under 5.5 (96.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (94.5%), Home +2 handicap (93.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.1%) and Under 4.5 (90.7%). These picks reflect the low-scoring nature of the fixture and the home side’s advantage.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zira win
54.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt win
18.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zira
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.90
1.19
0.81
1.14
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.00
1.00
0.83
0.67
1.12
1.25
vs Weaker (14)
1.36
0.64
1.50
0.62
1.17
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sumqayıt
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.57
1.21
1.79
1.38
1.38
vs Stronger (12)
1.17
2.50
1.25
2.62
1.00
2.25
vs Similar (17)
1.29
1.00
1.17
0.67
1.36
1.18
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
70.3%
Under 1.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
43.0%
Under 2.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
22.1%
Under 3.5
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
45.6%
No
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.2%
1-1
12.9%
2-0
11.3%
0-0
10.3%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
6.3%
3-0
6.0%
3-1
4.9%
Zira goals ↓
Sumqayıt goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
6.3%
3.1%
0.8%
0.2%
1
13%
13%
4.8%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
9.3%
3.8%
1.0%
0.2%
3
6.0%
4.9%
2.0%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.4%
1.9%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zira goals (down), columns = Sumqayıt goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Safa Baku
1.09
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Zira is 0.42 points better than Sumqayıt in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 1.19).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Safa Baku
1.02
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Zira is 0.01 goals worse than Sumqayıt in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Qarabag
0.82
Turan
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Safa Baku
1.57
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Zira is 0.44 goals better than Sumqayıt in terms of goals conceded per game (1.09 vs 1.53).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zira or Draw
81.7%
Avg Implied -
54%
28%
18%
covers Zira + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zira or Sumqayıt
72.4%
Avg Implied -
54%
28%
18%
covers Zira + Sumqayıt
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sumqayıt
45.9%
Avg Implied -
54%
28%
18%
covers Draw + Sumqayıt
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zira over/under 0.5
Over
79.4%
Under
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5
Over
46.8%
Under
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5
Over
21.1%
Under
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 3.5
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5
Over
56.0%
Under
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5
Over
19.8%
Under
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 3.5
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zira, so a minus line means Zira give that many goals of a start and Sumqayıt receive them. At -1, Zira must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zira win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zira)
Zira -2
12.4%
Draw -2
17.1%
Sumqayıt +2
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Zira)
Zira -1
29.5%
Draw -1
24.7%
Sumqayıt +1
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Zira)
Zira +1
81.7%
Draw +1
12.3%
Sumqayıt -1
6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Zira)
Zira +2
94.0%
Draw +2
4.6%
Sumqayıt -2
1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zira
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.47
0.50
0.44
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.64
0.33
0.50
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (14)
0.57
0.21
0.62
0.25
0.50
0.17
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sumqayıt
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.73
0.36
0.86
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.25
0.25
1.38
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.41
0.50
0.17
0.36
0.55
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zira over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zira
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.69
0.38
0.71
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.36
0.50
0.17
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
0.79
0.43
0.88
0.38
0.67
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sumqayıt
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.83
0.86
0.93
0.94
0.75
vs Stronger (12)
0.92
1.25
1.00
1.25
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (17)
0.88
0.59
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zira over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
Zira's squad is €3m more valuable than Sumqayıt's (€12m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
Zira's attack is €2m more valuable than Sumqayıt's (€6m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
Zira and Sumqayıt have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
Zira's defence is €2m more valuable than Sumqayıt's (€6m vs €4m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Neftchi Baku
Qarabag
Sabah FA
Turan
Imisli FK
Kapaz
Safa Baku
Şamaxı FK
Qabala
Araz