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Zlin vs Varnsdorf Result & Analysis

Date: 02/05/2025
Time: 15:30
Final 2-0
Zlin
Zlin
Vs
50%
28%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Varnsdorf
Varnsdorf
Czech-Republic: FNL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Zlin win✓ Hit
49.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Varnsdorf win✗ Miss
21.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ZlinZlin

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D30W21W31W21W10W11D11D11D01LA·PLZ27/02H·PRO03/03A·SIG09/03A·VIK16/03H·VLA28/03A·SLA06/04H·ZBR11/04A·VYS16/04H·BAN20/04A·SPA27/04
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.600.571.670.421.560.67
vs Stronger (3)1.330.672.001.001.000.50
vs Similar (27)1.630.561.640.361.620.69
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Varnsdorf) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VarnsdorfVarnsdorf

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W03L21W12L21W22D12L30W10WH·BAN10/11A·OPA01/03H·ZBR09/03H·SPA16/03A·CHR29/03H·ART06/04A·VYŠ12/04H·TÁB16/04A·SIG20/04H·PRO27/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.431.071.601.601.27
vs Stronger (1)1.003.001.003.00--
vs Similar (29)1.341.381.071.501.601.27
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Zlin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.2%
Under 1.5
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.0%
Under 2.5
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.9%
Under 3.5
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.3%
No
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0
12.0%
2-0 ✓
10.0%
0-0
10.0%
2-1
9.2%
0-1
6.9%
1-2
5.7%
3-0
5.0%
Zlin goals ↓
Varnsdorf goals →
01234
010.0%6.9%3.8%1.2%0.3%
112%13%5.7%1.8%0.4%
210.0%9.2%4.3%1.3%0.3%
35.0%4.7%2.2%0.7%0.2%
41.9%1.8%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zlin goals (down), columns = Varnsdorf goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Zlin
2.37
Chrudim
1.77
Vyškov
1.53
Táborsko
1.37
Vlašim
1.33
Sparta Praha II
1.33
Zbrojovka Brno
1.30
Artis
1.30
Viktoria Žižkov
1.30
Vysočina Jihlava
1.23
Slavia Praha II
1.23
Prostějov
1.23
Opava
1.20
Baník Ostrava II
1.13
Varnsdorf
1.07
Sigma Olomouc II
0.80
Zlin is 1.30 points better than Varnsdorf in terms of average points per game (2.37 vs 1.07).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Viktoria Žižkov
1.70
Chrudim
1.57
Zlin
1.50
Vlašim
1.43
Slavia Praha II
1.37
Sparta Praha II
1.37
Zbrojovka Brno
1.30
Varnsdorf
1.30
Baník Ostrava II
1.17
Vysočina Jihlava
1.17
Táborsko
1.13
Vyškov
1.10
Sigma Olomouc II
1.03
Artis
1.03
Prostějov
1.03
Opava
0.97
Zlin is 0.20 goals better than Varnsdorf in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.30).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zlin
0.47
Vyškov
0.80
Chrudim
1.00
Táborsko
1.00
Artis
1.17
Slavia Praha II
1.23
Opava
1.30
Vysočina Jihlava
1.30
Vlašim
1.30
Sparta Praha II
1.30
Zbrojovka Brno
1.37
Prostějov
1.40
Baník Ostrava II
1.53
Varnsdorf
1.57
Viktoria Žižkov
1.63
Sigma Olomouc II
1.80
Zlin is 1.10 goals better than Varnsdorf in terms of goals conceded per game (0.47 vs 1.57).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ZlinZlin

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-111D10W11D00D11D00D10W10W10W00DA·PLZ27/02H·PRO03/03A·SIG09/03A·VIK16/03H·VLA28/03A·SLA06/04H·ZBR11/04A·VYS16/04H·BAN20/04A·SPA27/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.230.920.080.500.33
vs Stronger (3)0.670.331.000.000.500.50
vs Similar (27)0.670.220.910.090.500.31
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %77% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Varnsdorf) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VarnsdorfVarnsdorf

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W01L11D01L21W12L01L00D00DH·BAN10/11A·OPA01/03H·ZBR09/03H·SPA16/03A·CHR29/03H·ART06/04A·VYŠ12/04H·TÁB16/04A·SIG20/04H·PRO27/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.570.530.670.600.47
vs Stronger (1)0.001.000.001.00--
vs Similar (29)0.590.550.570.640.600.47
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Zlin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zlin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zlin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zlin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Varnsdorf over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Varnsdorf over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Varnsdorf over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ZlinZlin

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D20W10W31W10W10W01L01L01L01LA·PLZ27/02H·PRO03/03A·SIG09/03A·VIK16/03H·VLA28/03A·SLA06/04H·ZBR11/04A·VYS16/04H·BAN20/04A·SPA27/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.330.750.331.060.33
vs Stronger (3)0.670.331.001.000.500.00
vs Similar (27)0.960.330.730.271.120.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Varnsdorf) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VarnsdorfVarnsdorf

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D02L10W11D00D10W11D30W10WH·BAN10/11A·OPA01/03H·ZBR09/03H·SPA16/03A·CHR29/03H·ART06/04A·VYŠ12/04H·TÁB16/04A·SIG20/04H·PRO27/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.870.530.931.000.80
vs Stronger (1)1.002.001.002.00--
vs Similar (29)0.760.830.500.861.000.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Zlin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zlin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zlin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zlin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Varnsdorf over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Varnsdorf over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Varnsdorf over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.577.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.571.2%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Zlin · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Michal Fukala25%
Jakub Černín20%
Daniel Šmiga20%
Marián Pišoja0%
Stanislav Dostal0%
Lukas Bartosak0%
Tomáš Poznar0%
Miloš Kopečný0%
Jakub Kolar0%
Michal Cupak0%
Stanley Kanu0%
Cletus Nombil0%
Frank Appiah 0%
Tom Ulbrich0%
Stanislav Petruta0%
Tomas Hellebrand0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Miloš Kopečný60%
Lukas Bartosak50%
Marián Pišoja40%
Tom Ulbrich25%
Stanislav Petruta25%
Tomáš Poznar20%
Jakub Černín20%
Frank Appiah 20%
Daniel Šmiga20%
Tomas Hellebrand20%
Michal Fukala0%
Stanislav Dostal0%
Jakub Kolar0%
Michal Cupak0%
Stanley Kanu0%
Cletus Nombil0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marián Pišoja20%
Michal Fukala0%
Stanislav Dostal0%
Lukas Bartosak0%
Tomáš Poznar0%
Miloš Kopečný0%
Jakub Černín0%
Jakub Kolar0%
Michal Cupak0%
Stanley Kanu0%
Cletus Nombil0%
Frank Appiah 0%
Daniel Šmiga0%
Tom Ulbrich0%
Stanislav Petruta0%
Tomas Hellebrand0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tom Ulbrich25%
Marián Pišoja0%
Michal Fukala0%
Stanislav Dostal0%
Lukas Bartosak0%
Tomáš Poznar0%
Miloš Kopečný0%
Jakub Černín0%
Jakub Kolar0%
Michal Cupak0%
Stanley Kanu0%
Cletus Nombil0%
Frank Appiah 0%
Daniel Šmiga0%
Stanislav Petruta0%
Tomas Hellebrand0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (26)
€11m
ZB (31)
€10m
ART (30)
€9m
ZLI (27)
€7m
VLA (22)
€4m
BOI (17)
€3m
TÁB (23)
€3m
PRO (25)
€3m
VJ (18)
€3m
VŽ (22)
€3m
OPA (21)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZB (10)
€3m
SPI (8)
€3m
ART (9)
€2m
ZLI (8)
€2m
VLA (8)
€2m
BOI (6)
€1m
OPA (7)
€1m
TÁB (7)
€1m
VJ (4)
€1m
PRO (7)
€1m
VŽ (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZLI (6)
€2m
ZB (8)
€2m
SPI (5)
€2m
ART (8)
€2m
VŽ (9)
€1m
VJ (6)
€1m
VLA (5)
€1m
PRO (7)
€1m
TÁB (6)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
BOI (3)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (13)
€6m
ART (13)
€5m
ZB (13)
€5m
ZLI (13)
€2m
BOI (8)
€2m
TÁB (10)
€1m
VLA (9)
€1m
PRO (11)
€1m
VJ (8)
€1m
VŽ (8)
€1m
OPA (9)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
ZLI wins
0
Draws
0
VAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Zlin vs Varnsdorf · H/A from ZLI
DateH/AGameScore
06/10/24AVarnsdorf Vs ZLI0-2

ZlinZlin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/04/25ASparta Praha II Vs ZLI1-0
20/04/25HZLI Vs Baník Ostrava II1-1
16/04/25AVysočina Jihlava Vs ZLI1-1
11/04/25HZLI Vs Zbrojovka Brno1-1
06/04/25ASlavia Praha II Vs ZLI0-1
28/03/25HZLI Vs Vlašim2-1
16/03/25AViktoria Žižkov Vs ZLI1-3
09/03/25ASigma Olomouc II Vs ZLI1-2
03/03/25HZLI Vs Prostějov3-0
27/02/25APlzen Vs ZLI1-1

VarnsdorfVarnsdorf

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/04/25HVAR Vs Prostějov1-0
20/04/25ASigma Olomouc II Vs VAR0-3
16/04/25HVAR Vs Táborsko1-2
12/04/25AVyškov Vs VAR2-2
06/04/25HVAR Vs Artis2-1
29/03/25AChrudim Vs VAR2-1
16/03/25HVAR Vs Sparta Praha II2-1
09/03/25HVAR Vs Zbrojovka Brno0-3
01/03/25AOpava Vs VAR0-1
10/11/24HVAR Vs Baník Ostrava II0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Zlin
Zlin
Czech-Republic: FNL
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDDL1.70
HomeWWWDD1.91
AwayWWWDL1.52
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%52%41%
AVG goals2.502.352.63
Over 1.5 %76%78%74%
Over 2.5 %44%39%48%
Over 3.5 %20%13%26%
Scored1.481.571.41
Conceded1.020.781.22
BTTS56%57%56%
Clean Sheet30%35%26%
Corners9.309.609.00
Cards4.194.913.40
Varnsdorf
Varnsdorf
Czech-Republic: FNL
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWW1.32
HomeLWWLW1.44
AwayLWLDW1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%40%28%
AVG goals3.083.282.88
Over 1.5 %84%84%84%
Over 2.5 %62%68%56%
Over 3.5 %30%36%24%
Scored1.581.681.48
Conceded1.501.601.40
BTTS70%72%68%
Clean Sheet14%12%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ZlinZlin3071
70%
2.4
4514+31
2.0
67%
33%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2221.50.5
-
2ChrudimChrudim3053
50%
1.8
4730+17
2.6
77%
50%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
3VyškovVyškov3046
40%
1.5
3324+9
1.9
60%
33%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.8
-
4TáborskoTáborsko3041
37%
1.4
3430+4
2.1
60%
40%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.0
-
5VlašimVlašim3040
30%
1.3
4339+4
2.7
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.41.3
-
6Sparta Praha IISparta Praha II3040
33%
1.3
4139+2
2.7
70%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.3
-
7Viktoria ŽižkovViktoria Žižkov3039
37%
1.3
5149+2
3.3
80%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.71.6
-
8Zbrojovka BrnoZbrojovka Brno3039
30%
1.3
3941-2
2.7
77%
43%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.31.4
-
9ArtisArtis3039
30%
1.3
3135-4
2.2
70%
33%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
2251.01.2
-
10Slavia Praha IISlavia Praha II3037
30%
1.2
4137+4
2.6
73%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
3261.41.2
-
11Vysočina JihlavaVysočina Jihlava3037
27%
1.2
3539-4
2.5
87%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.3
-
12ProstějovProstějov3037
30%
1.2
3142-11
2.4
73%
47%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.4
-
13OpavaOpava3036
30%
1.2
2939-10
2.3
63%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.3
-
14Baník Ostrava IIBaník Ostrava II3034
30%
1.1
3546-11
2.7
67%
57%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.21.5
-
15VarnsdorfVarnsdorf3032
27%
1.1
3947-8
2.9
87%
57%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
16Sigma Olomouc IISigma Olomouc II3024
20%
0.8
3154-23
2.8
77%
67%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
Czech-Republic: FNL 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Czech-Republic: FNL stats & trends →

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