The 2. Bundesliga clash on 29 August pits 1. FC Nürnberg at home against Arminia Bielefeld, with the model favouring a home win. Nürnberg’s recent five-match run of WWDWD, highlighted by a 4-2 victory over SpVgg Greuther Fürth, underpins a 61% chance of triumph, while a 22% draw and 17% away win are the remaining outcomes. The expected total of 3.2 goals points to a 3-goal match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 10.3% probability.
Home form shows Nürnberg scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.75 against weaker opposition, whereas Bielefeld, playing away against stronger teams, averages 0.5 scored and 2.5 conceded. The model’s edge is most pronounced in the “Away under 3.5 goals” pick, with a 98.8% chance and a 7% edge, followed by “Away under 2.5 HT goals” at 98.8% with a 4% edge. Other selections include “Under 7.5” at 98.7%, “Away under 2.5 2H goals” 97.7% with a 6% edge, “Home under 2.5 HT goals” 96.6% with a 4% edge, “Under 6.5” 96.3% with a 1% edge, “Home +2 handicap” 95.9% with a 14% edge, and “Away under 2.5 goals” 94.3% with an 11% edge.
Results analysis
The 1. FC Nürnberg win extends their three-game winning run, with a 4-1 triumph over Arminia Bielefeld. The model’s favourite, Home win, was correct, echoing the 61% probability it had assigned. The match also matched the most likely 3-goal total, though the final tally was higher. Every suggested pick was settled: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.8%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.7%, Under 7.5 hit at 98.7%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.8%, Home under 2.5 HT goals missed at 96.7%, Under 6.5 hit at 96.3%, Home +2 handicap hit at 95.9%, and Away under 2.5 goals hit at 94.3%. The model’s selections performed largely as predicted.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg win✓ Hit
60.9%
Avg Implied 42.2% · @ 2.22
Edge
+18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.32
Dafabet
2.28
Betano
2.27
William Hil
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
Draw✗ Miss
22.1%
Avg Implied 26.0% · @ 3.59
Edge
-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.79
Betano
3.75
Dafabet
3.65
Unibet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
Arminia Bielefeld win✗ Miss
17.0%
Avg Implied 31.8% · @ 2.94
Edge
-14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
3.10
Unibet
3.05
Betfair
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.33
1.87
1.00
1.47
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.71
1.46
2.00
1.09
1.46
1.77
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
0.83
1.50
0.75
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Arminia Bielefeld) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arminia Bielefeld
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.53
2.00
1.07
1.06
1.94
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.50
1.50
0.50
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (26)
1.58
1.54
2.08
1.17
1.14
1.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Nürnberg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.5%
@ 1.19+4.9%
Under 1.5
16.5%
@ 4.37-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.72
Superbet
4.60
BetVictor
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.5%
@ 1.65+4.2%
Under 2.5
38.5%
@ 2.20-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
Superbet
1.66
Unibet
1.66
Betfair
1.65
Under
Pinnacle
2.29
Bet365
2.25
Superbet
2.25
Betano
2.25
Marathonbet
2.21
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.2%
@ 2.57+2.8%
Under 3.5
60.8%
@ 1.47-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.65
10Bet
2.65
Betano
2.65
Unibet
2.63
Betfair
2.63
Under
Superbet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.51
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.2%
@ 1.53-2.2%
No
41.8%
@ 2.35+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.57
Betano
1.55
Unibet
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
No
Betfair
2.45
BetVictor
2.40
Bet365
2.38
1xBet
2.37
Superbet
2.37
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%@ 6.71+3.6%
2-1
9.9%@ 8.38+4.5%
2-0
9.4%@ 11.66+5.5%
1-0
7.9%@ 9.08+3.0%
3-1
7.0%@ 14.59+3.9%
3-0
6.7%@ 20.11+4.4%
2-2
5.2%@ 11.10+1.2%
0-0
5.1%@ 12.92+1.6%
1. FC Nürnberg goals ↓
Arminia Bielefeld goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
3.5%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
1
7.9%
10%
4.9%
1.7%
0.5%
2
9.4%
9.9%
5.2%
1.8%
0.5%
3
6.7%
7.0%
3.7%
1.3%
0.3%
4
3.5%
3.7%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = 1. FC Nürnberg goals (down), columns = Arminia Bielefeld goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
VfL Wolfsburg
2.14
Hannover 96
1.76
1. FC Heidenheim
1.64
FC St. Pauli
1.58
SV Darmstadt 98
1.53
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.53
Hertha BSC
1.50
1. FC Nürnberg
1.35
VfL Bochum
1.29
Karlsruher SC
1.29
Holstein Kiel
1.21
Dynamo Dresden
1.21
Arminia Bielefeld
1.15
1. FC Magdeburg
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.11
Energie Cottbus
1.09
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.09
VfL Osnabrück
1.07
1. FC Nürnberg is 0.21 points better than Arminia Bielefeld in terms of average points per game (1.35 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
VfL Wolfsburg
2.18
Hannover 96
1.76
SV Darmstadt 98
1.68
1. FC Heidenheim
1.67
FC St. Pauli
1.62
Dynamo Dresden
1.59
Arminia Bielefeld
1.56
Karlsruher SC
1.56
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.53
1. FC Magdeburg
1.53
VfL Bochum
1.44
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.42
Hertha BSC
1.38
1. FC Nürnberg
1.38
Holstein Kiel
1.29
Energie Cottbus
1.12
VfL Osnabrück
1.09
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.06
1. FC Nürnberg is 0.18 goals worse than Arminia Bielefeld in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
VfL Wolfsburg
0.93
1. FC Heidenheim
1.21
FC St. Pauli
1.26
Hannover 96
1.29
Hertha BSC
1.29
SV Darmstadt 98
1.32
1. FC Nürnberg
1.32
VfL Bochum
1.38
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.38
Holstein Kiel
1.41
Arminia Bielefeld
1.50
Dynamo Dresden
1.56
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.59
1. FC Magdeburg
1.71
Energie Cottbus
1.82
VfL Osnabrück
1.87
Karlsruher SC
1.88
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.92
1. FC Nürnberg is 0.18 goals better than Arminia Bielefeld in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hannover 96
56%
1. FC Magdeburg
54%
Arminia Bielefeld
52%
Holstein Kiel
52%
SV Darmstadt 98
51%
Dynamo Dresden
50%
1. FC Nürnberg
49%
Hertha BSC
49%
Karlsruher SC
48%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
48%
1. FC Kaiserslautern
48%
VfL Bochum
46%
Eintracht Braunschweig
44%
1. FC Nürnberg is 2.5 percentage points worse than Arminia Bielefeld in terms of average possession (49% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg
For 5.0 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 10.8 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arminia Bielefeld
For 6.1 · Against 5.0 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 13.6 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
1. FC Nürnberg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.0
9.4
5.0
5.0
5.0
24.9
23.8
26.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (39)
9.6
9.3
9.8
4.9
5.2
4.7
24.4
24.4
24.3
vs Weaker (11)
10.1
12.6
8.0
5.3
4.6
5.8
26.8
21.2
31.5
% over line
46%
52%
40%
82%
88%
76%
72%
72%
72%
% under line
54%
48%
60%
18%
12%
24%
28%
28%
28%
This opponent (Arminia Bielefeld) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arminia Bielefeld
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.3
10.9
3.3
3.4
3.2
26.5
26.6
26.5
vs Stronger (6)
10.5
6.5
14.5
2.3
2.3
2.3
22.0
25.0
19.0
vs Similar (44)
10.6
10.8
10.4
3.4
3.5
3.3
27.1
26.8
27.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
61%
61%
61%
44%
44%
44%
83%
83%
83%
% under line
39%
39%
39%
56%
56%
56%
17%
17%
17%
This opponent (1. FC Nürnberg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Energie Cottbus
12.5
VfL Wolfsburg
11.5
VfL Osnabrück
10.9
Dynamo Dresden
10.7
VfL Bochum
10.5
SV Darmstadt 98
10.5
Hannover 96
10.5
Hertha BSC
10.4
1. FC Kaiserslautern
10.3
Eintracht Braunschweig
10.2
Holstein Kiel
10.1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
10.1
1. FC Magdeburg
10.0
Arminia Bielefeld
9.9
1. FC Nürnberg
9.7
FC St. Pauli
9.6
Karlsruher SC
9.2
1. FC Heidenheim
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Holstein Kiel
5.3
Eintracht Braunschweig
5.1
1. FC Kaiserslautern
5.0
VfL Bochum
4.9
1. FC Nürnberg
4.9
Hannover 96
4.8
Hertha BSC
4.8
Karlsruher SC
4.7
1. FC Magdeburg
4.7
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
4.6
VfL Osnabrück
4.6
Dynamo Dresden
4.2
Arminia Bielefeld
4.2
SV Darmstadt 98
4.1
VfL Wolfsburg
3.7
1. FC Heidenheim
3.7
FC St. Pauli
3.7
Energie Cottbus
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Holstein Kiel
26.4
Hannover 96
26.3
Energie Cottbus
26.0
Arminia Bielefeld
25.6
1. FC Kaiserslautern
25.5
VfL Osnabrück
25.2
1. FC Nürnberg
24.9
Eintracht Braunschweig
24.4
Hertha BSC
24.1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
24.1
SV Darmstadt 98
23.8
1. FC Magdeburg
23.7
Karlsruher SC
23.3
Dynamo Dresden
23.2
VfL Bochum
23.0
1. FC Heidenheim
20.8
VfL Wolfsburg
20.7
FC St. Pauli
19.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
59.1%
@ 1.63+2.4%
Under 9.5
40.9%
@ 2.14-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.62
Unibet
1.61
Under
Betano
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
Marathonbet
2.15
Unibet
2.14
1xBet
2.12
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
62.0%
@ 1.30-6.6%
Under 3.5
38.0%
@ 2.85+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.30
Under
Superbet
2.85
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
69.0%
Under 21.5
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
1. FC Nürnberg or Draw✓ Hit
87.5%
Avg Implied 68.5% · @ 1.36
Edge
+19.0%
61%
22%
17%
covers 1. FC Nürnberg + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.44
William Hil
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
1. FC Nürnberg or Arminia Bielefeld✓ Hit
79.5%
Avg Implied 74.4% · @ 1.26
Edge
+5.1%
61%
22%
17%
covers 1. FC Nürnberg + Arminia Bielefeld
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Draw or Arminia Bielefeld✗ Miss
32.9%
Avg Implied 57.0% · @ 1.64
Edge
-24.1%
61%
22%
17%
covers Draw + Arminia Bielefeld
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Superbet
1.66
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
89.0%
@ 1.18+10.2%
Under
11.0%
@ 4.38-10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Under
Pinnacle
4.82
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.45
BetVictor
4.40
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
64.7%
@ 1.93+16.3%
Under
35.3%
@ 1.81-16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.99
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Betano
1.93
BetVictor
1.93
Under
Pinnacle
1.86
Marathonbet
1.83
Superbet
1.83
1xBet
1.82
10Bet
1.80
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
37.9%
@ 3.95+14.3%
Under
62.1%
@ 1.22-14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.23
BetVictor
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.94
Under
Superbet
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
18.2%
@ 8.90+7.7%
Under
81.8%
@ 1.04-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
1xBet
9.00
Marathonbet
8.90
Superbet
8.40
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
57.8%
@ 1.26-15.7%
Under
42.2%
@ 3.50+15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Under
Pinnacle
3.91
BetVictor
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
Betfair
3.50
Superbet
3.50
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
21.4%
@ 2.29-19.3%
Under
78.6%
@ 1.57+19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.38
Pinnacle
2.34
Marathonbet
2.31
Superbet
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Under
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
BetVictor
1.57
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.7%
@ 5.21-12.2%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.13+12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Pinnacle
5.47
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.17
Pinnacle
1.16
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 12.33-6.5%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.03+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to 1. FC Nürnberg, so a minus line means 1. FC Nürnberg give that many goals of a start and Arminia Bielefeld receive them. At -1, 1. FC Nürnberg must win by two or more to land; a one-goal 1. FC Nürnberg win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (1. FC Nürnberg)Actual: 1. FC Nürnberg
1. FC Nürnberg -2
23.9%
@ 8.38+13.2%
Draw -2
20.4%
@ 6.15+5.9%
Arminia Bielefeld +2
55.7%
@ 1.20-19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.20
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
8.00
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.40
10Bet
6.00
Superbet
5.90
Away
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
Handicap -1 (1. FC Nürnberg)Actual: 1. FC Nürnberg
1. FC Nürnberg -1
44.3%
@ 3.89+21.3%
Draw -1
22.8%
@ 4.00+0.4%
Arminia Bielefeld +1
32.9%
@ 1.64-21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.95
10Bet
3.90
Superbet
3.80
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.05
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Away
Unibet
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Superbet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.63
Bet365
1.62
Handicap +1 (1. FC Nürnberg)Actual: 1. FC Nürnberg
1. FC Nürnberg +1
87.5%
@ 1.36+21.6%
Draw +1
8.4%
@ 4.75-10.5%
Arminia Bielefeld -1
4.1%
@ 5.92-11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.70
10Bet
4.50
Away
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Marathonbet
5.65
Handicap +2 (1. FC Nürnberg)Actual: 1. FC Nürnberg
1. FC Nürnberg +2
95.9%
@ 1.10+13.3%
Draw +2
3.1%
@ 8.33-7.8%
Arminia Bielefeld -2
1.0%
@ 14.00-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
Draw
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
8.50
Unibet
7.50
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
15.00
Unibet
12.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
1. FC Nürnberg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
0.87
0.33
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.67
1.00
0.45
0.77
0.85
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.17
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Arminia Bielefeld) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arminia Bielefeld
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
0.71
0.71
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.77
0.67
0.75
0.71
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Nürnberg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.9%
@ 1.29-2.2%
Under 0.5
30.1%
@ 3.33+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Under
William Hil
3.50
Superbet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
1xBet
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
34.5%
@ 2.39-4.5%
Under 1.5
65.5%
@ 1.53+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.52
Pinnacle
2.49
Superbet
2.40
Betfair
2.40
Unibet
2.40
Under
Superbet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.56
10Bet
1.55
William Hil
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
11.3%
@ 5.48-5.7%
Under 2.5
88.7%
@ 1.12+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Betano
5.50
Superbet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.45
Under
William Hil
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
52.3%
@ 1.82+1.1%
Under
47.7%
@ 1.90-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.80
Unibet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.98
Superbet
1.92
10Bet
1.91
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
15.0%
@ 5.08-3.2%
Under
85.0%
@ 1.13+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.30
1xBet
5.30
Betano
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Superbet
4.80
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
3.3%
@ 13.67-3.6%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.02+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
10Bet
15.00
Betano
11.00
Under
10Bet
1.02
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
36.3%
@ 2.02-9.6%
Under
63.7%
@ 1.72+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.10
Unibet
2.06
Betano
2.05
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
1.99
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
10Bet
1.75
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.5%
@ 6.19-6.4%
Under
91.5%
@ 1.09+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.55
1xBet
6.50
Superbet
6.10
10Bet
6.00
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 17.92-4.1%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
1. FC Nürnberg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.77
1.00
0.67
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.79
1.00
0.64
0.69
0.92
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Arminia Bielefeld) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arminia Bielefeld
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.80
1.29
0.36
0.44
1.19
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.88
0.77
1.42
0.42
0.43
1.07
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Nürnberg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.4%
@ 1.17-0.2%
Under 0.5
20.6%
@ 4.54+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.14
Under
Superbet
4.65
Betano
4.60
1xBet
4.55
Marathonbet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
52.2%
@ 1.85+2.0%
Under 1.5
47.8%
@ 1.87-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.87
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.86
William Hil
1.85
Under
Betano
1.93
Superbet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
1xBet
1.87
William Hil
1.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.8%
@ 3.63-6.8%
Under 2.5
81.2%
@ 1.25+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
William Hil
3.70
Superbet
3.70
1xBet
3.58
Marathonbet
3.58
Under
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
60.7%
@ 1.57+1.6%
Under
39.3%
@ 2.27-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.59
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Under
Betano
2.32
10Bet
2.30
Superbet
2.27
1xBet
2.20
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
24.0%
@ 3.68-1.2%
Under
76.0%
@ 1.24+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.74
10Bet
3.65
Superbet
3.65
Betano
3.55
Under
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.0%
@ 9.16-4.1%
Under
94.0%
@ 1.03+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
9.80
10Bet
9.50
1xBet
9.10
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
43.6%
@ 1.73-9.9%
Under
56.4%
@ 1.99+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Superbet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.71
Under
Betano
2.05
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
1xBet
1.96
10Bet
1.95
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.3%
@ 4.57-7.0%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.16+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.65
Superbet
4.55
Betano
4.20
Under
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 12.17-5.6%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.02+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.7%
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.6%
✗ Miss
Under 6.5
96.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
95.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
-
-
+13.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
94.3%
1.13
Betano
1.17
Pinnacle
1.16
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
+12.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.0%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.5%
1.09
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
90.9%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
BetVictor
1.03
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
89.0%
1.18
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
+10.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.7%
1.12
William Hil
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
+5.7%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
87.5%
1.36
Betano
1.44
William Hil
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
+19.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.7%
1.16
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.0%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
+3.2%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
83.5%
1.19
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.20
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
81.8%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
-7.7%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.2%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
80.4%
1.17
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
+0.4%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
79.5%
1.26
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.4%
1.17
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.14
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
78.6%
1.57
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
BetVictor
1.57
+19.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
76.0%
1.24
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
73.9%
1.50
Superbet
1.50
-
-
-
-
+13.4%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
71.0%
1.37
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.38
Unibet
1.36
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.32
+3.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
1. FC Nürnberg
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mohamed Ali Zoma50%
Piet Scobel50%
Julian Justvan25%
Tim Janisch25%
Adam Markhiev25%
Rayan Ghrieb0%
Finn Ole Becker0%
Jan Reichert0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Giannis Masouras0%
Fynn Otto0%
Alexios Kalogeropoulos0%
Rafael Lubach0%
Eric Porstner0%
Javier Fernandez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Javier Fernandez50%
Rayan Ghrieb33%
Julian Justvan25%
Mohamed Ali Zoma25%
Adam Markhiev25%
Eric Porstner25%
Finn Ole Becker0%
Jan Reichert0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Giannis Masouras0%
Fynn Otto0%
Alexios Kalogeropoulos0%
Rafael Lubach0%
Tim Janisch0%
Piet Scobel0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Finn Ole Becker67%
Fynn Otto33%
Julian Justvan25%
Adam Markhiev25%
Eric Porstner25%
Piet Scobel25%
Rayan Ghrieb0%
Jan Reichert0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Giannis Masouras0%
Alexios Kalogeropoulos0%
Mohamed Ali Zoma0%
Rafael Lubach0%
Tim Janisch0%
Javier Fernandez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Piet Scobel50%
Julian Justvan25%
Mohamed Ali Zoma25%
Rayan Ghrieb0%
Finn Ole Becker0%
Jan Reichert0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Giannis Masouras0%
Fynn Otto0%
Alexios Kalogeropoulos0%
Rafael Lubach0%
Tim Janisch0%
Adam Markhiev0%
Eric Porstner0%
Javier Fernandez0%
Arminia Bielefeld
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joel Grodowski50%
Marvin Mehlem25%
Stefano Russo25%
Marius Wörl25%
Sam Schreck0%
Arne Sicker0%
Maximilian Bauer0%
Tim Handwerker0%
Roberts Uldriķis0%
Isaiah Young0%
Jonas Thomas Kersken0%
Jannik Rochelt0%
Monju Momuluh0%
Maximilian Großer0%
Henri Koudossou0%
Benjamin Boakye0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Arne Sicker33%
Sam Schreck25%
Tim Handwerker25%
Joel Grodowski25%
Benjamin Boakye25%
Marvin Mehlem0%
Maximilian Bauer0%
Roberts Uldriķis0%
Stefano Russo0%
Isaiah Young0%
Jonas Thomas Kersken0%
Jannik Rochelt0%
Monju Momuluh0%
Maximilian Großer0%
Henri Koudossou0%
Marius Wörl0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Maximilian Bauer25%
Isaiah Young25%
Henri Koudossou25%
Sam Schreck0%
Arne Sicker0%
Marvin Mehlem0%
Tim Handwerker0%
Roberts Uldriķis0%
Stefano Russo0%
Joel Grodowski0%
Jonas Thomas Kersken0%
Jannik Rochelt0%
Monju Momuluh0%
Maximilian Großer0%
Benjamin Boakye0%
Marius Wörl0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joel Grodowski50%
Sam Schreck0%
Arne Sicker0%
Marvin Mehlem0%
Maximilian Bauer0%
Tim Handwerker0%
Roberts Uldriķis0%
Stefano Russo0%
Isaiah Young0%
Jonas Thomas Kersken0%
Jannik Rochelt0%
Monju Momuluh0%
Maximilian Großer0%
Henri Koudossou0%
Benjamin Boakye0%
Marius Wörl0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (33)
€154m
FSP (27)
€46m
1FN (28)
€40m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
H9 (26)
€33m
KS (25)
€31m
1FK (26)
€28m
HB (24)
€25m
SD9 (28)
€24m
1FM (26)
€21m
EB (27)
€21m
VB (24)
€19m
DD (26)
€19m
SGF (24)
€19m
AB (23)
€18m
EC (26)
€11m
VO (25)
€10m
1. FC Nürnberg's squad is €22m more valuable than Arminia Bielefeld's (€40m vs €18m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (10)
€56m
KS (7)
€16m
1FH (11)
€15m
1FN (9)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
1FK (9)
€12m
1FM (9)
€10m
FSP (7)
€10m
H9 (9)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
HB (8)
€8m
EB (8)
€7m
AB (8)
€7m
DD (8)
€6m
VB (9)
€6m
VO (9)
€5m
EC (10)
€4m
SGF (6)
€4m
1. FC Nürnberg's attack is €8m more valuable than Arminia Bielefeld's (€14m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (8)
€32m
FSP (8)
€15m
1FN (6)
€13m
H9 (8)
€11m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
SGF (8)
€5m
VB (4)
€5m
1FK (6)
€5m
EB (7)
€5m
DD (4)
€4m
KS (6)
€4m
1FM (4)
€4m
AB (5)
€4m
HB (6)
€3m
VO (7)
€3m
EC (4)
€2m
1. FC Nürnberg's midfield is €10m more valuable than Arminia Bielefeld's (€13m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (15)
€66m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
HB (10)
€13m
1FN (13)
€12m
1FH (11)
€12m
H9 (9)
€12m
KS (12)
€12m
1FK (11)
€11m
SGF (10)
€9m
EB (12)
€9m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
VB (11)
€8m
AB (10)
€7m
1FM (13)
€7m
EC (12)
€5m
VO (9)
€3m
1. FC Nürnberg's defence is €5m more valuable than Arminia Bielefeld's (€12m vs €7m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Hertha BSC
VfL Wolfsburg
1. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Magdeburg
1. FC Kaiserslautern
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Karlsruher SC
Eintracht Braunschweig
VfL Bochum
Energie Cottbus
Hannover 96
VfL Osnabrück
Dynamo Dresden
FC St. Pauli
Holstein Kiel
SV Darmstadt 98