This opponent (FC Midtjylland) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Midtjylland
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.40
2.27
1.40
1.73
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.64
1.57
2.00
1.57
1.29
1.57
vs Weaker (16)
2.31
1.25
2.50
1.25
2.12
1.25
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.7%
Under 1.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.4%
Under 2.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.0%
Under 3.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.5%
No
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.8%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
7.6%
0-1
7.5%
2-1
6.7%
2-2
6.0%
0-0
5.9%
1-3
5.7%
Aarhus goals ↓
FC Midtjylland goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
7.5%
7.6%
4.5%
2.0%
1
5.0%
12%
9.6%
5.7%
2.5%
2
3.8%
6.7%
6.0%
3.6%
1.6%
3
1.6%
2.8%
2.5%
1.5%
0.7%
4
0.5%
0.9%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aarhus goals (down), columns = FC Midtjylland goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Copenhagen
1.97
FC Midtjylland
1.94
Brondby
1.59
Silkeborg
1.58
Viborg
1.47
Randers FC
1.45
FC Nordsjaelland
1.44
Aarhus
1.25
Sonderjyske
1.16
Vejle
0.88
Lyngby
0.84
Aalborg
0.75
Aarhus is 0.69 points worse than FC Midtjylland in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 1.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Midtjylland
2.00
FC Copenhagen
1.88
Brondby
1.81
Silkeborg
1.79
Viborg
1.78
Randers FC
1.76
Aarhus
1.66
FC Nordsjaelland
1.66
Sonderjyske
1.47
Vejle
1.16
Aalborg
1.06
Lyngby
0.81
Aarhus is 0.34 goals worse than FC Midtjylland in terms of goals scored per game (1.66 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Copenhagen
1.03
Silkeborg
1.27
FC Midtjylland
1.31
Lyngby
1.34
Aarhus
1.44
Brondby
1.44
Viborg
1.56
Randers FC
1.61
FC Nordsjaelland
1.75
Sonderjyske
2.00
Vejle
2.00
Aalborg
2.09
Aarhus is 0.12 goals worse than FC Midtjylland in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.31).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Nordsjaelland
61%
Brondby
54%
Silkeborg
54%
FC Copenhagen
53%
Aarhus
52%
Viborg
49%
FC Midtjylland
48%
Aalborg
47%
Sonderjyske
47%
Lyngby
47%
Randers FC
46%
Vejle
42%
Aarhus is 3.8 percentage points better than FC Midtjylland in terms of average possession (52% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aarhus
For 4.7 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 10.5 · Total 21.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Midtjylland
For 5.6 · Against 4.4 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 8.6 · Total 18.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aarhus
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.7
8.4
4.3
4.5
4.0
23.6
24.3
22.9
vs Stronger (13)
8.3
9.3
7.3
4.5
4.6
4.5
22.6
24.0
21.2
vs Similar (32)
9.2
9.5
8.9
4.2
4.5
3.9
23.3
23.6
23.0
vs Weaker (5)
9.8
11.7
7.0
4.4
4.7
4.0
28.0
28.7
27.0
% over line
39%
44%
33%
64%
69%
58%
59%
68%
50%
% under line
61%
56%
67%
36%
31%
42%
41%
32%
50%
This opponent (FC Midtjylland) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Midtjylland
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
9.2
8.2
4.4
4.0
4.7
21.3
20.8
21.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
9.0
9.7
8.3
4.5
4.1
4.9
19.2
20.9
17.6
vs Weaker (36)
8.6
9.1
8.2
4.3
3.9
4.6
22.1
20.8
23.2
% over line
34%
42%
27%
64%
54%
73%
43%
43%
42%
% under line
66%
58%
73%
36%
46%
27%
57%
57%
58%
This opponent (Aarhus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FC Copenhagen
10.7
Lyngby
10.6
Vejle
10.3
Randers FC
10.2
FC Nordsjaelland
10.2
Brondby
10.0
Viborg
10.0
Aalborg
9.8
Silkeborg
9.3
Aarhus
9.0
FC Midtjylland
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Midtjylland
4.4
Aarhus
4.4
Vejle
4.1
Brondby
4.1
FC Nordsjaelland
4.0
Lyngby
3.9
Viborg
3.9
FC Copenhagen
3.8
Randers FC
3.7
Aalborg
3.6
Silkeborg
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Lyngby
24.3
Randers FC
23.6
Aarhus
23.5
Vejle
23.2
Viborg
22.1
Aalborg
21.3
FC Midtjylland
21.3
Brondby
20.6
FC Nordsjaelland
20.6
FC Copenhagen
20.0
Silkeborg
17.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
43.7%
Under 9.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
62.3%
Under 3.5
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
54.2%
Under 21.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aarhus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.57
0.64
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
0.75
1.00
0.75
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.83
0.38
0.75
0.50
0.90
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Midtjylland) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Midtjylland
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.80
0.87
0.73
0.80
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.86
1.00
0.71
0.57
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.88
0.75
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aarhus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Midtjylland over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Midtjylland over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Midtjylland over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aarhus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
0.71
0.79
0.75
0.69
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.78
0.88
0.88
0.70
0.70
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Midtjylland) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Midtjylland
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.60
1.40
0.67
0.93
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.71
1.00
0.86
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (16)
1.44
0.50
1.75
0.50
1.12
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aarhus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Midtjylland over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Midtjylland over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Midtjylland over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Aarhus
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Patrick Mortensen47%
Tobias Bech27%
Mikael Anderson20%
Mads Emil Madsen16%
Gift Links8%
Frederik Tingager7%
Youssouph Badji7%
Felix Beijmo6%
Tobias Mølgaard6%
Kristian Arnstad4%
Henrik Dalsgaard4%
Nicolai Poulsen4%
Mikkel Duelund0%
Jesper Hansen0%
Frederik Brandhof0%
Max Power0%
Michael Akoto0%
Leopold Wahlstedt0%
Eric Kahl0%
Jonas Jensen-Abbew0%
Jacob Andersen0%
Tobias Bach0%
Richmond Gyamfi0%
Luka Callø0%
Frederik Emmery0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kristian Arnstad25%
Nicolai Poulsen21%
Jacob Andersen19%
Tobias Bech17%
Mikael Anderson17%
Eric Kahl16%
Mads Emil Madsen13%
Tobias Mølgaard12%
Felix Beijmo10%
Frederik Brandhof9%
Gift Links8%
Henrik Dalsgaard8%
Max Power7%
Patrick Mortensen6%
Tobias Bach6%
Mikkel Duelund0%
Frederik Tingager0%
Jesper Hansen0%
Michael Akoto0%
Leopold Wahlstedt0%
Youssouph Badji0%
Jonas Jensen-Abbew0%
Richmond Gyamfi0%
Luka Callø0%
Frederik Emmery0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mikael Anderson20%
Youssouph Badji13%
Mads Emil Madsen10%
Felix Beijmo10%
Gift Links8%
Eric Kahl8%
Nicolai Poulsen7%
Tobias Bech7%
Jacob Andersen6%
Tobias Bach6%
Kristian Arnstad4%
Mikkel Duelund0%
Henrik Dalsgaard0%
Frederik Tingager0%
Patrick Mortensen0%
Tobias Mølgaard0%
Jesper Hansen0%
Frederik Brandhof0%
Max Power0%
Michael Akoto0%
Leopold Wahlstedt0%
Jonas Jensen-Abbew0%
Richmond Gyamfi0%
Luka Callø0%
Frederik Emmery0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mikael Anderson33%
Patrick Mortensen31%
Tobias Bech20%
Gift Links8%
Frederik Tingager3%
Mads Emil Madsen3%
Mikkel Duelund0%
Henrik Dalsgaard0%
Tobias Mølgaard0%
Nicolai Poulsen0%
Jesper Hansen0%
Frederik Brandhof0%
Max Power0%
Felix Beijmo0%
Michael Akoto0%
Leopold Wahlstedt0%
Kristian Arnstad0%
Eric Kahl0%
Youssouph Badji0%
Jonas Jensen-Abbew0%
Jacob Andersen0%
Tobias Bach0%
Richmond Gyamfi0%
Luka Callø0%
Frederik Emmery0%
FC Midtjylland
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Adam Buksa37%
Franculino Djú32%
Victor Lind25%
Oliver Sørensen20%
Darío Osorio18%
Ola Brynhildsen18%
Ousmane Diao18%
Aral Şimşir14%
Edward Chilufya14%
Valdemar Byskov12%
Mikel Gogorza10%
Jan Kuchta7%
Kevin Mbabu7%
Juninho7%
Dani Silva7%
Adam Gabriel5%
Victor Bak Jensen3%
Pedro Bravo3%
Joel Andersson2%
Mads Bech Sørensen2%
Jonas Lössl0%
Paulinho0%
André Rømer0%
Alhaji Kamara0%
Christian Sørensen0%
Kristoffer Askildsen0%
Elías Ólafsson0%
Emiliano Martínez0%
Han-Beom Lee0%
Denil Castillo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kevin Mbabu27%
Adam Buksa24%
Darío Osorio18%
Ousmane Diao18%
Emiliano Martínez15%
Denil Castillo14%
Dani Silva13%
Pedro Bravo12%
Paulinho11%
Kristoffer Askildsen10%
Joel Andersson8%
Franculino Djú8%
Edward Chilufya7%
Mikel Gogorza7%
Juninho7%
Adam Gabriel5%
Mads Bech Sørensen4%
Victor Bak Jensen3%
Aral Şimşir3%
Oliver Sørensen2%
Jonas Lössl0%
André Rømer0%
Alhaji Kamara0%
Christian Sørensen0%
Ola Brynhildsen0%
Jan Kuchta0%
Elías Ólafsson0%
Victor Lind0%
Han-Beom Lee0%
Valdemar Byskov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Aral Şimşir25%
Edward Chilufya21%
Christian Sørensen17%
Franculino Djú15%
Oliver Sørensen12%
Victor Bak Jensen12%
Mikel Gogorza10%
Joel Andersson10%
Adam Gabriel10%
Pedro Bravo9%
Han-Beom Lee8%
Jan Kuchta7%
Juninho7%
Mads Bech Sørensen6%
Valdemar Byskov6%
Adam Buksa5%
Darío Osorio5%
Kristoffer Askildsen5%
Emiliano Martínez4%
Kevin Mbabu3%
Ousmane Diao2%
Jonas Lössl0%
Paulinho0%
André Rømer0%
Alhaji Kamara0%
Ola Brynhildsen0%
Dani Silva0%
Elías Ólafsson0%
Victor Lind0%
Denil Castillo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Adam Buksa32%
Franculino Djú30%
Darío Osorio21%
Aral Şimşir14%
Oliver Sørensen12%
Ola Brynhildsen9%
Edward Chilufya7%
Juninho7%
Valdemar Byskov6%
Adam Gabriel5%
Mads Bech Sørensen2%
Kevin Mbabu0%
Jonas Lössl0%
Paulinho0%
André Rømer0%
Alhaji Kamara0%
Joel Andersson0%
Christian Sørensen0%
Kristoffer Askildsen0%
Dani Silva0%
Jan Kuchta0%
Elías Ólafsson0%
Emiliano Martínez0%
Victor Lind0%
Victor Bak Jensen0%
Han-Beom Lee0%
Pedro Bravo0%
Denil Castillo0%
Ousmane Diao0%
Mikel Gogorza0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (26)
€108m
FC (26)
€73m
BRO (29)
€48m
FN (25)
€37m
AAR (28)
€36m
SIL (23)
€19m
VIB (22)
€19m
RF (24)
€14m
SON (26)
€13m
LYN (22)
€13m
AAL (24)
€10m
VEJ (22)
€9m
Aarhus's squad is €72m less valuable than FC Midtjylland's (€36m vs €108m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (8)
€47m
FN (8)
€18m
FC (7)
€17m
BRO (9)
€15m
AAR (10)
€14m
SIL (6)
€6m
VIB (8)
€6m
RF (9)
€5m
VEJ (7)
€3m
SON (6)
€3m
LYN (5)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
Aarhus's attack is €33m less valuable than FC Midtjylland's (€14m vs €47m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (8)
€24m
FC (7)
€17m
AAR (10)
€14m
BRO (5)
€11m
FN (5)
€7m
SIL (6)
€5m
LYN (8)
€5m
SON (7)
€3m
RF (5)
€3m
VIB (4)
€2m
VEJ (6)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
Aarhus's midfield is €10m less valuable than FC Midtjylland's (€14m vs €24m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FC (12)
€39m
FM (10)
€37m
BRO (15)
€22m
FN (12)
€12m
VIB (10)
€11m
AAR (8)
€8m
SIL (11)
€8m
SON (13)
€6m
RF (10)
€6m
AAL (12)
€6m
LYN (9)
€5m
VEJ (9)
€4m
Aarhus's defence is €29m less valuable than FC Midtjylland's (€8m vs €37m).
Denmark: Superliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: Superliga stats & trends →
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FC Copenhagen
Silkeborg
Brondby
Randers FC
Viborg
FC Nordsjaelland
Sonderjyske
Vejle
Lyngby
Aalborg