This opponent (Cheltenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cheltenham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.60
1.53
1.20
1.40
2.00
vs Stronger (14)
0.93
1.86
0.86
1.14
1.00
2.57
vs Similar (15)
1.87
1.40
2.12
1.25
1.57
1.57
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
86.1%
Under 1.5
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
65.8%
@ 1.83+14.2%
Under 2.5
34.2%
@ 1.95-14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.9%
Under 3.5
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.5%
No
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%
2-1
9.2%
1-2
6.9%
2-2
6.7%
2-0
6.3%
3-1
5.9%
1-0 ✓
5.6%
0-0
4.3%
Accrington goals ↓
Cheltenham goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
4.0%
3.6%
1.7%
0.6%
1
5.6%
10%
6.9%
3.3%
1.2%
2
6.3%
9.2%
6.7%
3.2%
1.2%
3
4.1%
5.9%
4.3%
2.1%
0.8%
4
2.0%
2.9%
2.1%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Accrington goals (down), columns = Cheltenham goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Plymouth
2.20
Ipswich
2.13
Sheffield Weds
2.09
Barnsley
1.87
Bolton
1.76
Peterboro
1.67
Derby
1.65
Portsmouth
1.52
Wycombe
1.50
Lincoln
1.35
Charlton
1.35
Shrewsbury
1.28
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Exeter
1.22
Burton
1.22
Cheltenham
1.17
Bristol Rvs
1.15
Port Vale
1.07
Oxford
1.02
Cambridge
1.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.98
Accrington
0.96
Morecambe
0.96
Forest Green
0.59
Accrington is 0.22 points worse than Cheltenham in terms of average points per game (0.96 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ipswich
2.20
Plymouth
1.78
Sheffield Weds
1.76
Barnsley
1.74
Peterboro
1.63
Charlton
1.52
Derby
1.46
Exeter
1.39
Bolton
1.35
Portsmouth
1.33
Wycombe
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.26
Burton
1.24
Fleetwood Town
1.15
Shrewsbury
1.13
Oxford
1.07
Port Vale
1.04
Lincoln
1.02
Morecambe
1.02
Cheltenham
0.98
Milton Keynes Dons
0.96
Cambridge
0.89
Accrington
0.87
Forest Green
0.67
Accrington is 0.11 goals worse than Cheltenham in terms of goals scored per game (0.87 vs 0.98).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ipswich
0.76
Bolton
0.78
Sheffield Weds
0.80
Derby
1.00
Lincoln
1.02
Barnsley
1.02
Plymouth
1.02
Portsmouth
1.09
Fleetwood Town
1.11
Wycombe
1.11
Peterboro
1.17
Oxford
1.22
Shrewsbury
1.33
Cheltenham
1.33
Charlton
1.43
Milton Keynes Dons
1.43
Cambridge
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Port Vale
1.54
Bristol Rvs
1.59
Accrington
1.67
Morecambe
1.70
Burton
1.72
Forest Green
1.93
Accrington is 0.35 goals worse than Cheltenham in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ipswich
59%
Bolton
57%
Portsmouth
55%
Derby
55%
Plymouth
54%
Peterboro
54%
Charlton
54%
Oxford
53%
Sheffield Weds
53%
Milton Keynes Dons
53%
Port Vale
52%
Exeter
52%
Barnsley
49%
Fleetwood Town
49%
Accrington
47%
Forest Green
47%
Wycombe
46%
Cambridge
46%
Burton
45%
Cheltenham
43%
Lincoln
43%
Shrewsbury
42%
Morecambe
42%
Accrington is 4.2 percentage points better than Cheltenham in terms of average possession (47% vs 43%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Accrington
For 5.9 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 12.1 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cheltenham
For 3.3 · Against 6.2 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 10.5 · Total 20.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Accrington
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.4
10.6
3.9
3.6
4.2
24.6
24.3
24.8
vs Stronger (27)
10.5
10.9
10.1
4.5
4.0
5.1
24.2
23.4
25.0
vs Similar (23)
10.5
9.9
11.1
3.2
3.0
3.3
25.0
25.5
24.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
52%
52%
50%
48%
52%
70%
72%
68%
% under line
48%
48%
48%
50%
52%
48%
30%
28%
32%
This opponent (Cheltenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cheltenham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.4
9.1
3.5
3.6
3.5
20.9
22.0
19.8
vs Stronger (25)
9.6
10.7
8.6
3.6
3.9
3.4
22.2
23.6
20.8
vs Similar (23)
9.9
10.2
9.5
3.6
3.3
3.9
20.3
21.1
19.5
vs Weaker (2)
10.5
9.0
12.0
1.5
2.0
1.0
12.0
15.0
9.0
% over line
42%
48%
36%
48%
44%
52%
44%
48%
40%
% under line
58%
52%
64%
52%
56%
48%
56%
52%
60%
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Burton
11.9
Exeter
11.1
Bristol Rvs
10.8
Sheffield Weds
10.7
Lincoln
10.6
Accrington
10.5
Morecambe
10.4
Forest Green
10.4
Ipswich
10.3
Shrewsbury
10.3
Portsmouth
10.3
Oxford
10.2
Wycombe
10.2
Peterboro
10.1
Plymouth
10.1
Charlton
10.1
Cambridge
10.0
Bolton
10.0
Fleetwood Town
10.0
Barnsley
9.9
Cheltenham
9.8
Derby
9.7
Port Vale
9.4
Milton Keynes Dons
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.9
Charlton
4.0
Oxford
4.0
Derby
3.9
Accrington
3.9
Forest Green
3.8
Lincoln
3.7
Ipswich
3.7
Fleetwood Town
3.7
Portsmouth
3.6
Wycombe
3.6
Cheltenham
3.5
Cambridge
3.5
Peterboro
3.5
Bolton
3.4
Milton Keynes Dons
3.4
Sheffield Weds
3.3
Port Vale
3.3
Shrewsbury
3.3
Plymouth
3.3
Barnsley
3.2
Burton
3.2
Exeter
2.7
Morecambe
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bristol Rvs
24.6
Accrington
24.6
Portsmouth
24.2
Forest Green
23.7
Charlton
23.4
Peterboro
22.6
Lincoln
22.6
Fleetwood Town
22.6
Milton Keynes Dons
22.0
Oxford
22.0
Bolton
22.0
Wycombe
22.0
Port Vale
21.8
Barnsley
21.2
Sheffield Weds
21.0
Ipswich
21.0
Cheltenham
20.9
Plymouth
20.8
Derby
20.8
Shrewsbury
20.7
Burton
20.6
Cambridge
20.1
Morecambe
19.5
Exeter
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
73.1%
Under 9.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
65.3%
Under 3.5
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
55.5%
Under 21.5
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Accrington
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.73
0.67
0.27
0.80
vs Stronger (16)
0.44
0.94
0.75
0.62
0.12
1.25
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.50
0.71
0.71
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Cheltenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cheltenham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.53
1.20
vs Stronger (14)
0.21
0.93
0.14
0.29
0.29
1.57
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.73
1.00
0.50
0.71
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Accrington over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cheltenham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cheltenham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cheltenham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Accrington
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.03
1.13
0.87
0.53
1.20
vs Stronger (16)
0.62
0.88
0.88
0.62
0.38
1.12
vs Similar (14)
1.07
1.21
1.43
1.14
0.71
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Cheltenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cheltenham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.80
0.93
0.80
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
0.93
0.71
0.86
0.71
1.00
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.67
1.12
0.75
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Accrington over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cheltenham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cheltenham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cheltenham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 9.5 corners
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Accrington · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Woods50%
Stefan Mols33%
F. Rawson25%
D. Tutonda0%
Donald Love0%
Seamus Conneely0%
S. Whalley0%
C. Stockton0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Louie Moulden0%
Liam Coyle0%
Charlie Caton0%
Tom Moore0%
Devon Matthews0%
Alex Henderson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joseph Anderson50%
J. Woods50%
Seamus Conneely33%
S. Whalley33%
Liam Coyle33%
Tom Moore33%
F. Rawson25%
Donald Love25%
D. Tutonda0%
C. Stockton0%
Louie Moulden0%
Charlie Caton0%
Stefan Mols0%
Devon Matthews0%
Alex Henderson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Stefan Mols33%
Donald Love25%
F. Rawson0%
D. Tutonda0%
Seamus Conneely0%
S. Whalley0%
C. Stockton0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Louie Moulden0%
Liam Coyle0%
Charlie Caton0%
Tom Moore0%
J. Woods0%
Devon Matthews0%
Alex Henderson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
J. Woods50%
Donald Love25%
Charlie Caton25%
Alex Henderson25%
F. Rawson0%
D. Tutonda0%
Seamus Conneely0%
S. Whalley0%
C. Stockton0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Louie Moulden0%
Liam Coyle0%
Stefan Mols0%
Tom Moore0%
Devon Matthews0%
Cheltenham · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ryan Broom67%
C. McCann50%
B. Stevenson0%
P. Sweeney0%
S. McWilliams0%
A. Weimann0%
J. Shipley0%
J. Tomlinson0%
Robbie Cundy0%
G. Nurse0%
J. Bickerstaff0%
J. Tomkinson0%
Wyll Stanway0%
F. Willcox0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
S. McWilliams67%
F. Willcox33%
J. Tomlinson25%
J. Bickerstaff25%
J. Tomkinson25%
B. Stevenson0%
P. Sweeney0%
Ryan Broom0%
A. Weimann0%
J. Shipley0%
Robbie Cundy0%
G. Nurse0%
C. McCann0%
Wyll Stanway0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
P. Sweeney33%
A. Weimann33%
J. Tomlinson25%
B. Stevenson0%
S. McWilliams0%
Ryan Broom0%
J. Shipley0%
Robbie Cundy0%
G. Nurse0%
J. Bickerstaff0%
C. McCann0%
J. Tomkinson0%
Wyll Stanway0%
F. Willcox0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. McCann50%
J. Tomlinson25%
B. Stevenson0%
P. Sweeney0%
S. McWilliams0%
Ryan Broom0%
A. Weimann0%
J. Shipley0%
Robbie Cundy0%
G. Nurse0%
J. Bickerstaff0%
J. Tomkinson0%
Wyll Stanway0%
F. Willcox0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IPS (31)
€280m
DER (25)
€57m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
LIN (24)
€12m
WYC (24)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
PET (23)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
SHR (17)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
FG (4)
€1m
MOR (1)
€0m
Accrington and Cheltenham have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IPS (11)
€130m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
POR (12)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
SHR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Accrington and Cheltenham have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IPS (7)
€66m
DER (6)
€14m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
Accrington and Cheltenham have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IPS (13)
€85m
DER (11)
€18m
POR (13)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
FG (2)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Accrington and Cheltenham have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League One 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Plymouth
Ipswich
Sheffield Weds
Barnsley
Bolton
Peterboro
Derby
Portsmouth
Wycombe
Charlton
Lincoln
Shrewsbury
Fleetwood Town
Exeter
Burton
Bristol Rvs
Port Vale
Oxford
Cambridge
Milton Keynes Dons
Morecambe
Forest Green