This Segunda División match between AD Ceuta FC and Las Palmas is finely balanced, with Las Palmas coming off a draw against Malaga, while AD Ceuta FC is on a 2-game winning run. The model predicts an away win for Las Palmas, but the probabilities are evenly spread, with 33% for AD Ceuta FC, 29% for a draw, and 38% for Las Palmas. The expected total goals are 2.6, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 13.8% probability.
AD Ceuta FC's home form is relatively even, scoring 1.46 goals and conceding 1.54 at home against similar opponents. Las Palmas, meanwhile, scores 1.15 goals and concedes 1.85 away from home against similar opponents.
The model's selection is an away win for Las Palmas, with a 38% probability. The suggested picks include Over 21.5 fouls (87.3%), Over 1.5 (74.6%), Over 3.5 cards (73.6%), and Under 3.5 (73.5%). AD Ceuta FC has a 33% chance of winning, a 29% chance of drawing, and a 38% chance of losing.
Results analysis
After a run of two straight defeats, AD Ceuta FC’s home form has stalled, while Las Palmas, riding a two-game winning streak, returned to the pitch with confidence. The model predicted an away win with a 38 % probability, and the result was a 0-2 triumph for Las Palmas, confirming the forecast. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 fell short, but the total of 2.6 goals was close to the 2-goal outcome. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.5 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.4 %, Under 6.5 hit at 98.3 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.6 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.8 %, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 96.2 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 95.7 %, and Away under 3.5 goals hit at 95.1 %. The model’s selections performed strongly across the board.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
AD Ceuta FC win✗ Miss
33.1%
Avg Implied 32.1% · @ 2.90
Edge
+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.15
Pinnacle
3.00
888Sport
3.00
Unibet
3.00
1xBet
2.96
Draw✗ Miss
28.8%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.23
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.40
Pinnacle
3.40
Marathonbet
3.30
Dafabet
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Las Palmas win✓ Hit
38.0%
Avg Implied 39.0% · @ 2.39
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.47
Betano
2.47
Superbet
2.45
Dafabet
2.45
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AD Ceuta FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.70
1.40
1.27
1.20
2.13
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
2.20
1.33
1.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (25)
1.32
1.60
1.42
1.33
1.23
1.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Las Palmas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Las Palmas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.13
1.53
0.60
1.27
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.10
1.24
1.00
0.50
1.18
1.91
vs Weaker (9)
2.11
0.89
2.60
0.80
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (AD Ceuta FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.6%
@ 1.27+0.9%
Under 1.5
25.4%
@ 3.55-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.35
888Sport
1.33
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Betano
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.81
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Betano
3.70
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.2%
@ 1.88-2.0%
Under 2.5
51.8%
@ 1.90+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.00
888Sport
2.00
Pinnacle
1.93
Superbet
1.92
SBO
1.89
Under
1xBet
2.02
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.95
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.5%
@ 3.15-3.3%
Under 3.5
73.5%
@ 1.33+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Pinnacle
3.22
Unibet
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Under
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.1%
@ 1.67-1.6%
No
45.9%
@ 2.10+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.80
10Bet
1.73
Superbet
1.69
Unibet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
No
Betfair
2.25
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.15
BetVictor
2.10
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%@ 5.71+6.0%
0-1
8.8%@ 7.81+3.1%
0-0
8.7%@ 9.88+4.2%
1-2
8.5%@ 8.21+3.1%
1-0
8.0%@ 8.91+3.0%
2-1
7.8%@ 9.40+3.1%
0-2 ✓
6.8%@ 11.20+2.8%
2-0
5.8%@ 13.99+2.6%
AD Ceuta FC goals ↓
Las Palmas goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
8.8%
6.8%
3.1%
1.0%
1
8.0%
14%
8.5%
3.8%
1.3%
2
5.8%
7.8%
5.3%
2.4%
0.8%
3
2.4%
3.3%
2.2%
1.0%
0.3%
4
0.8%
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AD Ceuta FC goals (down), columns = Las Palmas goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Girona
1.96
Almeria
1.72
Burgos
1.71
Mallorca
1.70
Las Palmas
1.68
Castellón
1.66
Eibar
1.60
Oviedo
1.58
Cordoba
1.45
Sporting Gijon
1.45
AD Ceuta FC
1.45
Albacete
1.40
FC Andorra
1.38
Tenerife
1.34
Sabadell
1.16
Granada CF
1.14
Celta de Vigo II
1.14
Eldense
1.13
Real Sociedad II
1.12
Leganes
1.10
Valladolid
1.10
Cadiz
1.02
AD Ceuta FC is 0.23 points worse than Las Palmas in terms of average points per game (1.45 vs 1.68).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Girona
1.87
Almeria
1.87
Castellón
1.66
Mallorca
1.62
Oviedo
1.51
FC Andorra
1.48
Sporting Gijon
1.43
Cordoba
1.36
Albacete
1.33
Las Palmas
1.32
Tenerife
1.28
Eibar
1.24
Real Sociedad II
1.24
AD Ceuta FC
1.21
Granada CF
1.19
Burgos
1.14
Sabadell
1.10
Celta de Vigo II
1.09
Eldense
1.08
Valladolid
1.05
Leganes
1.02
Cadiz
0.98
AD Ceuta FC is 0.10 goals worse than Las Palmas in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Burgos
0.79
Girona
0.92
Eibar
0.95
Las Palmas
0.95
Mallorca
1.06
Oviedo
1.14
Leganes
1.21
Castellón
1.25
FC Andorra
1.29
Sporting Gijon
1.29
Albacete
1.31
Granada CF
1.33
Tenerife
1.35
Valladolid
1.36
Cordoba
1.45
Cadiz
1.45
Real Sociedad II
1.45
Almeria
1.48
AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Sabadell
1.56
Celta de Vigo II
1.58
Eldense
1.59
AD Ceuta FC is 0.55 goals worse than Las Palmas in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 0.95).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Andorra
61%
Cordoba
58%
Las Palmas
56%
Castellón
55%
Almeria
52%
Leganes
51%
AD Ceuta FC
51%
Granada CF
50%
Valladolid
50%
Eibar
49%
Burgos
46%
Cadiz
46%
Sporting Gijon
46%
Real Sociedad II
44%
Albacete
42%
AD Ceuta FC is 5.1 percentage points worse than Las Palmas in terms of average possession (51% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AD Ceuta FC
For 3.0 · Against 4.6 · Total 7.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.6 · Against 15.7 · Total 30.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Las Palmas
For 4.0 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 13.6 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AD Ceuta FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (47)
8.8
9.2
8.4
4.8
5.0
4.6
27.7
28.8
26.6
vs Stronger (7)
7.0
7.0
7.0
3.7
4.5
2.7
28.5
28.7
28.3
vs Similar (38)
9.1
9.6
8.6
5.2
5.2
5.3
27.5
28.8
26.3
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
42%
52%
32%
77%
77%
76%
93%
95%
91%
% under line
58%
48%
68%
23%
23%
24%
7%
5%
9%
This opponent (Las Palmas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Las Palmas
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.3
8.6
7.9
4.6
4.6
4.6
27.2
26.6
27.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
8.7
9.1
8.2
4.6
4.6
4.7
26.7
25.8
27.6
vs Weaker (14)
7.2
7.4
7.0
4.4
4.4
4.3
28.6
28.6
28.7
% over line
35%
44%
25%
62%
56%
68%
88%
84%
92%
% under line
65%
56%
75%
38%
44%
32%
12%
16%
8%
This opponent (AD Ceuta FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albacete
10.9
Cordoba
10.6
Mallorca
10.2
Castellón
10.0
Sporting Gijon
9.7
Cadiz
9.6
Almeria
9.5
Leganes
9.5
Eldense
9.4
Eibar
9.4
Real Sociedad II
9.3
Granada CF
9.3
Girona
9.3
Oviedo
9.2
Tenerife
9.1
FC Andorra
9.1
Valladolid
9.0
AD Ceuta FC
8.8
Sabadell
8.8
Burgos
8.5
Las Palmas
8.4
Celta de Vigo II
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Celta de Vigo II
7.0
Castellón
6.0
Real Sociedad II
5.9
Cordoba
5.7
Burgos
5.7
Almeria
5.6
Granada CF
5.5
FC Andorra
5.5
Valladolid
5.4
Leganes
5.3
AD Ceuta FC
5.2
Sporting Gijon
5.2
Eibar
5.2
Cadiz
5.1
Tenerife
4.7
Eldense
4.6
Las Palmas
4.6
Albacete
4.6
Sabadell
4.6
Girona
4.5
Mallorca
4.3
Oviedo
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Celta de Vigo II
35.0
Cordoba
29.6
Real Sociedad II
28.9
Valladolid
28.5
Castellón
28.1
Sabadell
27.8
FC Andorra
27.7
AD Ceuta FC
27.7
Granada CF
27.3
Tenerife
27.1
Las Palmas
27.0
Burgos
26.6
Almeria
26.5
Leganes
26.4
Cadiz
25.8
Eibar
25.7
Girona
25.4
Oviedo
25.1
Eldense
24.8
Mallorca
24.3
Sporting Gijon
22.2
Albacete
21.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
39.7%
@ 2.18-2.7%
Under 9.5
60.3%
@ 1.60+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.32
Betano
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
Marathonbet
2.18
1xBet
2.14
Under
Unibet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.56
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
72.8%
@ 1.32+4.9%
Under 3.5
27.2%
@ 2.80-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.32
Under
Superbet
2.80
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
87.0%
Under 21.5
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
AD Ceuta FC or Draw✗ Miss
62.0%
Avg Implied 60.7% · @ 1.54
Edge
+1.3%
33%
29%
38%
covers AD Ceuta FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.57
888Sport
1.57
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Superbet
1.56
AD Ceuta FC or Las Palmas✓ Hit
71.2%
Avg Implied 71.2% · @ 1.31
Edge
-0.0%
33%
29%
38%
covers AD Ceuta FC + Las Palmas
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.36
Superbet
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Draw or Las Palmas✓ Hit
66.9%
Avg Implied 68.1% · @ 1.37
Edge
-1.3%
33%
29%
38%
covers Draw + Las Palmas
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Superbet
1.40
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
AD Ceuta FC over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
71.3%
@ 1.32+0.8%
Under
28.7%
@ 3.15-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Unibet
1.32
Betano
1.32
Under
Betfair
3.50
Pinnacle
3.43
BetVictor
3.30
Marathonbet
3.26
Betano
3.20
AD Ceuta FC over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.5%
@ 2.58-0.6%
Under
64.5%
@ 1.46+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.88
10Bet
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Pinnacle
2.65
Unibet
2.60
Under
Betano
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
BetVictor
1.50
Superbet
1.50
AD Ceuta FC over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.1%
@ 6.23-1.9%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.10+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
7.50
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
7.00
1xBet
6.10
Betfair
6.00
Under
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.11
Superbet
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
Bet365
1.10
AD Ceuta FC over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 17.19-1.8%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.02+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
23.00
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Las Palmas over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.2%
@ 1.24-0.4%
Under
25.8%
@ 3.64+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.26
888Sport
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.95
Betano
3.80
Betfair
3.75
BetVictor
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Las Palmas over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
39.2%
@ 2.25-2.3%
Under
60.8%
@ 1.60+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.32
10Bet
2.30
888Sport
2.30
Superbet
2.25
Under
Marathonbet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.65
Betfair
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Las Palmas over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.5%
@ 5.14-2.5%
Under
84.5%
@ 1.13+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
888Sport
5.50
Unibet
5.10
BetVictor
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Las Palmas over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.9%
@ 12.10-3.0%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.03+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
888Sport
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.70
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to AD Ceuta FC, so a minus line means AD Ceuta FC give that many goals of a start and Las Palmas receive them. At -1, AD Ceuta FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal AD Ceuta FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (AD Ceuta FC)Actual: Las Palmas
AD Ceuta FC -2
5.0%
@ 13.50-1.8%
Draw -2
9.8%
@ 8.05-1.5%
Las Palmas +2
85.2%
@ 1.11+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Superbet
7.60
Away
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Handicap -1 (AD Ceuta FC)Actual: Las Palmas
AD Ceuta FC -1
14.8%
@ 6.06-0.0%
Draw -1
18.4%
@ 4.54-1.4%
Las Palmas +1
66.9%
@ 1.37+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
6.50
Unibet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.65
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.30
Away
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.34
Handicap +1 (AD Ceuta FC)Actual: Las Palmas
AD Ceuta FC +1
62.0%
@ 1.54+4.0%
Draw +1
20.0%
@ 3.99-2.4%
Las Palmas -1
18.0%
@ 4.57-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.57
Unibet
1.57
Superbet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.15
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.80
Away
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
4.75
Superbet
4.55
10Bet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Handicap +2 (AD Ceuta FC)Actual: Draw
AD Ceuta FC +2
82.0%
@ 1.17+5.5%
Draw +2
11.5%
@ 6.45-2.4%
Las Palmas -2
6.5%
@ 9.36-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.90
Superbet
6.50
Unibet
6.10
10Bet
5.75
Away
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
9.50
Marathonbet
9.30
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
8.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AD Ceuta FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.77
0.80
0.60
0.73
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.00
0.33
0.33
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.84
0.72
0.92
0.67
0.77
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Las Palmas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Las Palmas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.87
0.27
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.43
0.60
0.10
0.73
0.73
vs Weaker (9)
0.89
0.33
1.40
0.60
0.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (AD Ceuta FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.2%
@ 1.38+1.9%
Under 0.5
30.8%
@ 2.85-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Under
Pinnacle
3.05
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
2.92
William Hil
2.90
Marathonbet
2.89
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.7%
@ 2.79+0.1%
Under 1.5
66.3%
@ 1.41-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
2.90
10Bet
2.80
Betano
2.77
Superbet
2.75
Under
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.1%
@ 6.99-2.3%
Under 2.5
88.9%
@ 1.08+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
BetVictor
8.00
William Hil
7.00
Superbet
6.60
Betfair
6.50
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AD Ceuta FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
41.7%
@ 2.16-1.3%
Under
58.3%
@ 1.63+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.24
Unibet
2.17
Superbet
2.15
Betano
2.12
Under
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Superbet
1.63
AD Ceuta FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.0%
@ 6.94-3.4%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.07+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.10
1xBet
7.10
Superbet
6.80
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
AD Ceuta FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 17.50-3.9%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Las Palmas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
48.0%
@ 1.97+1.0%
Under
52.0%
@ 1.75-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.06
Betano
2.02
Superbet
1.97
10Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
Superbet
1.75
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Las Palmas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.7%
@ 5.98-2.7%
Under
87.3%
@ 1.09+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.05
Marathonbet
6.05
10Bet
6.00
Superbet
5.90
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Las Palmas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 17.33-3.2%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.01+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AD Ceuta FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.93
0.60
0.67
0.47
1.20
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.20
1.00
0.67
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.48
0.88
0.50
0.67
0.46
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Las Palmas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Las Palmas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
0.67
0.33
0.67
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.43
0.81
0.40
0.40
0.45
1.18
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.56
1.20
0.20
1.25
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (AD Ceuta FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.9%
Under 0.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
42.9%
Under 1.5
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.6%
Under 2.5
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AD Ceuta FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
46.7%
Under
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AD Ceuta FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.4%
Under
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AD Ceuta FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Las Palmas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
54.8%
Under
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Las Palmas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.9%
Under
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Las Palmas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.02
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.1%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.0%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.9%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.07
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.7%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Pinnacle
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.10
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.3%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.9%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.11
Superbet
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
Bet365
1.10
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
85.2%
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
84.5%
1.13
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
10Bet
1.13
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
82.0%
1.17
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
+5.5%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
81.4%
1.20
Unibet
1.25
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.6%
1.27
10Bet
1.35
888Sport
1.33
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Betano
1.28
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
74.2%
1.24
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.26
888Sport
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
10Bet
1.25
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.5%
1.33
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
72.8%
1.32
Superbet
1.32
-
-
-
-
+4.9%
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
72.0%
1.35
Unibet
1.41
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.31
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
71.3%
1.32
888Sport
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Unibet
1.32
Betano
1.32
+0.8%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
71.2%
1.31
888Sport
1.36
Superbet
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.33
-0.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AD Ceuta FC
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jordi Escobar33%
Anuar0%
Jose Matos0%
Carlos Hernández0%
Yann Bodiger0%
Guillermo Vallejo0%
Kuki Zalazar0%
Alejandro Camacho0%
Cedric Teguia0%
Alejandro Meléndez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Yann Bodiger33%
Cedric Teguia33%
Alejandro Meléndez33%
Anuar0%
Jose Matos0%
Carlos Hernández0%
Guillermo Vallejo0%
Kuki Zalazar0%
Alejandro Camacho0%
Jordi Escobar0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Anuar0%
Jose Matos0%
Carlos Hernández0%
Yann Bodiger0%
Guillermo Vallejo0%
Kuki Zalazar0%
Alejandro Camacho0%
Cedric Teguia0%
Jordi Escobar0%
Alejandro Meléndez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jordi Escobar33%
Anuar0%
Jose Matos0%
Carlos Hernández0%
Yann Bodiger0%
Guillermo Vallejo0%
Kuki Zalazar0%
Alejandro Camacho0%
Cedric Teguia0%
Alejandro Meléndez0%
Las Palmas
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Taisei Miyashiro67%
Jesé Rodríguez33%
Manuel Fuster33%
Jefté Betancor0%
Enzo Loiodice0%
José Antonio Caro0%
Kirian Rodríguez0%
Sergio Ruiz0%
Alex Suárez0%
Giovanni Bonfanti0%
Juanma Herzog0%
Valentin Pezzolesi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Enzo Loiodice33%
Kirian Rodríguez33%
Giovanni Bonfanti33%
Jesé Rodríguez0%
Jefté Betancor0%
Taisei Miyashiro0%
José Antonio Caro0%
Manuel Fuster0%
Sergio Ruiz0%
Alex Suárez0%
Juanma Herzog0%
Valentin Pezzolesi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Taisei Miyashiro67%
Jesé Rodríguez0%
Jefté Betancor0%
Enzo Loiodice0%
José Antonio Caro0%
Kirian Rodríguez0%
Manuel Fuster0%
Sergio Ruiz0%
Alex Suárez0%
Giovanni Bonfanti0%
Juanma Herzog0%
Valentin Pezzolesi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Manuel Fuster33%
Jesé Rodríguez0%
Jefté Betancor0%
Enzo Loiodice0%
Taisei Miyashiro0%
José Antonio Caro0%
Kirian Rodríguez0%
Sergio Ruiz0%
Alex Suárez0%
Giovanni Bonfanti0%
Juanma Herzog0%
Valentin Pezzolesi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (28)
€114m
ALM (26)
€54m
MAL (26)
€48m
OVI (23)
€30m
LEG (26)
€30m
LP (27)
€30m
SG (23)
€28m
CAD (29)
€27m
VAL (29)
€26m
RSI (25)
€23m
CAS (28)
€21m
ALB (27)
€18m
BUR (22)
€17m
GC (18)
€17m
COR (26)
€16m
EIB (24)
€15m
FA (26)
€15m
TEN (28)
€12m
ACF (22)
€10m
SAB (28)
€8m
CDV (22)
€8m
ELD (20)
€7m
AD Ceuta FC's squad is €20m less valuable than Las Palmas's (€10m vs €30m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (12)
€64m
ALM (11)
€38m
MAL (11)
€23m
RSI (10)
€15m
OVI (11)
€15m
SG (8)
€14m
LP (12)
€14m
LEG (11)
€14m
CAD (12)
€11m
CAS (10)
€11m
VAL (11)
€10m
ALB (10)
€8m
BUR (7)
€8m
EIB (8)
€7m
GC (5)
€6m
FA (10)
€6m
ACF (10)
€5m
TEN (13)
€5m
COR (9)
€4m
CDV (9)
€4m
SAB (11)
€3m
ELD (8)
€3m
AD Ceuta FC's attack is €8m less valuable than Las Palmas's (€5m vs €14m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (7)
€28m
MAL (5)
€9m
LEG (5)
€8m
VAL (6)
€6m
OVI (4)
€6m
SG (5)
€5m
ALM (4)
€4m
COR (5)
€4m
ALB (7)
€4m
TEN (5)
€4m
RSI (6)
€4m
BUR (6)
€4m
CAD (5)
€3m
EIB (6)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
CAS (6)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
FA (5)
€3m
SAB (6)
€2m
ACF (4)
€1m
ELD (3)
€1m
CDV (3)
€1m
AD Ceuta FC's midfield is €1m less valuable than Las Palmas's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (9)
€22m
MAL (10)
€16m
LP (10)
€13m
CAD (12)
€12m
ALM (11)
€11m
VAL (12)
€10m
OVI (8)
€10m
SG (10)
€9m
GC (10)
€9m
LEG (10)
€8m
CAS (12)
€8m
COR (12)
€7m
FA (11)
€7m
BUR (9)
€6m
ALB (10)
€5m
EIB (10)
€5m
RSI (9)
€4m
TEN (10)
€3m
SAB (11)
€3m
ELD (9)
€3m
ACF (8)
€3m
CDV (10)
€2m
AD Ceuta FC's defence is €10m less valuable than Las Palmas's (€3m vs €13m).
Spain: Segunda División 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Granada CF
Castellón
Leganes
Sporting Gijon
Mallorca
Tenerife
Eibar
Sabadell
Girona
Celta de Vigo II
Burgos
Real Sociedad II
Oviedo
FC Andorra
Almeria
Cadiz
Cordoba
Valladolid
Eldense
Albacete