AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis Result & Analysis

The model favours a home win for AEK Athens FC, with a 55% chance, a draw at 28% and an away win at 17%. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly open game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-0 for AEK, carrying a 13.8% probability. AEK’s home form shows they average 1.88 goals scored and only 0.38 conceded against weaker opposition, while Aris Thessalonikis, playing away against stronger sides, averages just 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 conceded. Recent form underlines the narrative: AEK remain unbeaten in five outings, drawing 1-1 with Kifisia, whereas Aris are on a five-game winning streak, beating OFI 2-1. The model’s selections include a 96% chance of over 19.5 fouls, 90.8% for over 21.5 fouls, 89.4% for over 2.5 cards, 82.3% for under 11.5 corners, 82.2% for over 23.5 fouls, 78.9% for under 3.5, 76.7% for over 3.5 cards and a 73.1% chance of under 10.5 corners. Each pick is presented with its probability, and the overall match outcome probabilities are explicitly stated.

The model’s prediction proved accurate as AEK Athens FC secured a 1-0 home win, extending their unbeaten run in the last five matches. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 55% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The final score matched the most likely 1-0 outcome, and the match finished as a home victory. Every suggested selection was settled: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 96%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 90.8%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 89.4%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 82.3%, Over 23.5 fouls hit at 82.2%, Under 3.5 hit at 78.9%, Over 3.5 cards hit at 76.7%, while Under 10.5 corners missed at 73.1%. The model’s predictions largely came through.