AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster Result & Analysis

The contest between AFC Wimbledon and Doncaster is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win probabilities sit at 32% and 39%, while a draw is 29%. The expected goal count is 2.5, with the most likely total of two goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14% chance. Wimbledon, playing at home against a similarly-strength opponent, averages 1.43 goals scored and 1.57 conceded, whereas Doncaster, on the road, averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 97.1%, Under 4.5 cards at 91.7%, Over 19.5 fouls at 82.0%, Under 3.5 cards at 80.1%, Under 11.5 corners at 75.5%, Under 3.5 at 75.2%, and Over 1.5 at 73.1%. Wimbledon’s recent form shows a loss streak, while Doncaster comes off a draw, adding to the uncertainty of the outcome.

The pre-match favourite, Doncaster, was tipped to win with a 39% probability, yet the match finished 2-2, a draw that left the model’s call incorrect. AFC Wimbledon, coming off a defeat, and Doncaster, after a draw, both struggled to convert their form into a decisive result. The model had also predicted a 32% chance of a home win, a 29% chance of a draw, and an expected total of 2.5 goals, with the most likely scoreline 1-1 at 14%. Among the suggested selections, the model’s “Under 5.5 cards” at 97.1% missed, “Under 4.5 cards” at 91.7% missed, “Over 19.5 fouls” at 82.0% hit, “Under 3.5 cards” at 80.1% missed, “Under 11.5 corners” at 75.5% missed, “Under 3.5” at 75.2% missed, and “Over 1.5” at 73.1% hit.