This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Ayr
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
3.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.53
1.69
1.50
2.50
1.57
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
0.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.86
1.57
1.73
1.55
2.00
1.60
vs Weaker (8)
2.88
1.12
2.00
0.75
3.75
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.1%
Under 1.5
10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
71.3%
Under 2.5
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
50.5%
Under 3.5
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
69.5%
No
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.0%
1-1
9.0%
1-3
6.7%
2-2
6.7%
0-2
6.1%
2-1
6.0%
2-3
4.9%
0-1
4.7%
Airdrie United goals ↓
Ayr goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.3%
4.7%
6.1%
4.5%
2.5%
1
2.9%
9.0%
9.0%
6.7%
3.7%
2
2.7%
6.0%
6.7%
4.9%
2.7%
3
1.3%
3.0%
3.3%
2.4%
1.3%
4
0.5%
1.1%
1.2%
0.9%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Airdrie United goals (down), columns = Ayr goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Ayr
2.11
Raith Rvs
2.08
Alloa
1.67
Arbroath
1.64
Stranraer
1.47
East Fife
1.17
Airdrie United
1.14
Forfar
1.06
Queens Park
0.86
Albion Rvs
0.83
Airdrie United is 0.97 points worse than Ayr in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 2.11).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ayr
2.56
Arbroath
1.94
Raith Rvs
1.89
Stranraer
1.61
Albion Rvs
1.58
Alloa
1.56
East Fife
1.36
Airdrie United
1.28
Queens Park
1.17
Forfar
1.11
Airdrie United is 1.28 goals worse than Ayr in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 2.56).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Raith Rvs
0.89
Ayr
1.17
Alloa
1.19
Arbroath
1.42
Airdrie United
1.67
Forfar
1.81
Stranraer
1.83
East Fife
1.86
Queens Park
2.00
Albion Rvs
2.22
Airdrie United is 0.50 goals worse than Ayr in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.17).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Airdrie United
For 5.8 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.9
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.0
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 8.6 · Total 19.7
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
A
Ayr
For 5.5 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.5
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.5
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 12.7 · Total 22.9
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Airdrie United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.8
10.4
1.0
1.4
0.7
20.5
20.8
20.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (33)
10.9
10.2
11.5
1.0
1.4
0.6
19.6
21.4
18.2
vs Weaker (17)
10.0
11.7
8.3
1.1
1.2
0.9
22.2
19.7
24.7
% over line
65%
62%
67%
16%
29%
4%
35%
38%
33%
% under line
35%
38%
33%
84%
71%
96%
65%
62%
67%
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Ayr
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.5
11.9
11.0
1.2
1.1
1.3
21.6
21.3
21.9
vs Stronger (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
11.9
10.7
13.4
1.1
0.8
1.3
22.8
23.0
22.6
vs Weaker (10)
10.7
14.3
7.0
2.1
2.4
1.8
19.3
18.0
20.7
% over line
65%
78%
50%
12%
8%
17%
47%
33%
62%
% under line
35%
22%
50%
88%
92%
83%
53%
67%
38%
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albion Rvs
11.7
Ayr
11.5
Queens Park
11.1
Forfar
10.9
Stranraer
10.8
Arbroath
10.7
Raith Rvs
10.7
East Fife
10.6
Airdrie United
10.6
Alloa
9.2
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stranraer
4.3
Forfar
3.5
Ayr
3.5
Raith Rvs
3.3
Queens Park
3.3
Albion Rvs
3.3
East Fife
3.2
Airdrie United
3.1
Alloa
2.9
Arbroath
2.9
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
East Fife
24.5
Stranraer
23.8
Forfar
23.5
Raith Rvs
22.9
Albion Rvs
21.8
Ayr
21.6
Alloa
21.2
Airdrie United
20.5
Queens Park
20.4
Arbroath
19.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
64.3%
Under 9.5
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.7%
Under 3.5
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
49.4%
Under 21.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Airdrie United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.64
0.57
0.69
1.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.89
0.89
0.88
0.75
0.91
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
0.27
0.91
0.33
0.33
0.20
1.60
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Ayr
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.62
0.56
0.71
0.64
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.62
0.55
0.45
0.70
0.80
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.38
1.00
0.50
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Airdrie United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Airdrie United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.07
1.00
0.79
0.69
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.74
1.05
0.75
1.00
0.73
1.09
vs Weaker (11)
1.00
1.09
1.33
0.50
0.60
1.80
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Ayr
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.93
1.06
0.94
1.79
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.24
0.95
1.18
1.09
1.30
0.80
vs Weaker (8)
2.00
0.75
1.00
0.25
3.00
1.25
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Airdrie United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 8.5 corners
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 2.5 cards
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 2.5
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League One 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Airdrie United
Arbroath
Stranraer
East Fife
Forfar
Queens Park