This opponent (Burgos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burgos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.27
1.40
0.73
0.93
1.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.82
1.41
0.91
0.64
0.73
2.18
vs Weaker (8)
2.12
0.88
2.75
1.00
1.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Alcorcon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
57.1%
Under 1.5
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
28.8%
@ 2.04-17.2%
Under 2.5
71.2%
@ 1.74+17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.0%
Under 3.5
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
36.8%
No
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.7%
1-0
16.0%
1-1 ✓
14.2%
0-1
10.2%
2-0
9.7%
2-1
7.3%
1-2
4.8%
0-2
4.3%
Alcorcon goals ↓
Burgos goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
17%
10%
4.3%
1.1%
0.2%
1
16%
14%
4.8%
1.2%
0.2%
2
9.7%
7.3%
2.7%
0.7%
0.1%
3
3.6%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
0.0%
4
1.0%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alcorcon goals (down), columns = Burgos goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leganes
1.76
Valladolid
1.71
Espanyol
1.65
Eibar
1.64
Oviedo
1.54
Racing Santander
1.52
Sporting Gijon
1.50
Burgos
1.40
Levante
1.40
Elche
1.40
Racing Ferrol
1.40
Tenerife
1.33
FC Cartagena
1.21
Zaragoza
1.21
Albacete
1.21
Eldense
1.19
Huesca
1.17
Mirandes
1.17
Amorebieta
1.07
Alcorcon
1.05
Villarreal II
1.02
FC Andorra
1.02
Alcorcon is 0.36 points worse than Burgos in terms of average points per game (1.05 vs 1.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Eibar
1.64
Racing Santander
1.50
Espanyol
1.35
Leganes
1.33
Oviedo
1.26
Burgos
1.24
Valladolid
1.21
Albacete
1.19
Levante
1.17
Racing Ferrol
1.17
Sporting Gijon
1.16
Mirandes
1.12
Eldense
1.10
Elche
1.02
Zaragoza
1.00
Villarreal II
0.98
Tenerife
0.90
Amorebieta
0.88
FC Cartagena
0.88
Huesca
0.86
FC Andorra
0.79
Alcorcon
0.76
Alcorcon is 0.48 goals worse than Burgos in terms of goals scored per game (0.76 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leganes
0.64
Huesca
0.79
Valladolid
0.86
Oviedo
0.89
Espanyol
0.89
Tenerife
0.98
Sporting Gijon
0.98
Zaragoza
1.00
Levante
1.07
Elche
1.10
Eibar
1.14
FC Cartagena
1.21
Racing Ferrol
1.24
Amorebieta
1.26
FC Andorra
1.26
Alcorcon
1.26
Burgos
1.29
Racing Santander
1.31
Mirandes
1.31
Eldense
1.33
Albacete
1.33
Villarreal II
1.48
Alcorcon is 0.02 goals better than Burgos in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Andorra
63%
Elche
58%
Valladolid
56%
Eibar
55%
Oviedo
54%
Sporting Gijon
54%
Levante
52%
Racing Ferrol
52%
Espanyol
51%
Zaragoza
50%
Villarreal II
50%
Tenerife
50%
Albacete
49%
Racing Santander
47%
Burgos
47%
Amorebieta
46%
Leganes
46%
Eldense
45%
Huesca
45%
Mirandes
45%
FC Cartagena
44%
Alcorcon
42%
Alcorcon is 4.8 percentage points worse than Burgos in terms of average possession (42% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Alcorcon
For 3.9 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 1.9 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 11.5 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Burgos
For 4.8 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.7 · Against 15.0 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Alcorcon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.6
9.2
4.9
4.8
5.1
24.9
23.5
26.3
vs Stronger (28)
10.1
9.4
10.9
5.6
5.1
6.2
25.7
25.5
25.8
vs Similar (22)
7.3
7.3
7.3
4.1
4.3
4.0
23.9
20.5
26.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
38%
36%
40%
76%
76%
76%
72%
68%
76%
% under line
62%
64%
60%
24%
24%
24%
28%
32%
24%
This opponent (Burgos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burgos
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.4
9.6
3.8
4.4
3.2
22.9
23.6
22.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (37)
9.7
9.8
9.6
4.2
5.3
3.2
23.5
24.9
22.2
vs Weaker (13)
8.8
8.4
9.2
2.7
2.2
3.4
20.7
19.6
22.0
% over line
49%
48%
50%
56%
65%
46%
56%
57%
55%
% under line
51%
52%
50%
44%
35%
54%
44%
43%
45%
This opponent (Alcorcon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Oviedo
10.5
Racing Santander
10.1
Mirandes
10.0
Sporting Gijon
10.0
Levante
9.9
Espanyol
9.8
Burgos
9.6
Elche
9.6
Huesca
9.5
Eibar
9.5
Valladolid
9.4
Eldense
9.4
Villarreal II
9.3
Tenerife
9.2
Zaragoza
9.1
Leganes
9.0
Amorebieta
8.9
Albacete
8.9
FC Cartagena
8.9
Alcorcon
8.9
FC Andorra
8.8
Racing Ferrol
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
5.9
Espanyol
5.6
Tenerife
5.4
Valladolid
5.4
Oviedo
5.3
Leganes
5.3
Sporting Gijon
5.3
Huesca
5.2
Elche
5.1
FC Cartagena
5.0
Alcorcon
4.9
Mirandes
4.9
Zaragoza
4.9
Levante
4.9
Albacete
4.9
Villarreal II
4.8
FC Andorra
4.8
Eibar
4.8
Burgos
4.6
Amorebieta
4.4
Eldense
4.1
Racing Ferrol
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Racing Santander
29.6
Espanyol
28.3
Oviedo
27.1
Leganes
27.1
Elche
26.8
Valladolid
26.7
Tenerife
26.6
Eldense
26.4
Albacete
26.4
Levante
26.0
Huesca
25.6
Villarreal II
25.6
Zaragoza
25.5
Racing Ferrol
25.4
FC Cartagena
25.2
FC Andorra
25.1
Alcorcon
24.9
Amorebieta
24.3
Mirandes
24.0
Sporting Gijon
23.3
Eibar
23.2
Burgos
22.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
41.3%
Under 9.5
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
64.0%
Under 3.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
57.8%
Under 21.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Alcorcon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.40
0.40
0.13
0.20
0.67
vs Stronger (17)
0.29
0.53
0.38
0.12
0.22
0.89
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.23
0.43
0.14
0.17
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Burgos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burgos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.53
0.33
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.41
0.73
0.55
0.55
0.27
0.91
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Alcorcon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alcorcon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alcorcon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alcorcon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Alcorcon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.70
0.40
0.40
0.40
1.00
vs Stronger (17)
0.41
0.88
0.50
0.50
0.33
1.22
vs Similar (13)
0.38
0.46
0.29
0.29
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Burgos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burgos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.73
0.20
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.41
0.68
0.36
0.09
0.45
1.27
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
0.38
1.75
0.50
1.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Alcorcon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Alcorcon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alcorcon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alcorcon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
71.2%
1.74
-
-
-
-
-
+17.2%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Alcorcon
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dyego Sousa30%
Jacobo González14%
Christian Borrego11%
Javier Pérez Mateo9%
Emmanuel Addai9%
Víctor García8%
Fede Vico6%
Chema4%
Juanma Bravo4%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi3%
Pedro Mosquera3%
Yan Eteki3%
Javier Lara3%
Javier Castro2%
Xavier Quintilla0%
Jean-Sylvain Babin0%
David Morillas0%
Alejandro López0%
Álvaro Bustos0%
Iago López Carracedo0%
Jesús Ruiz Suárez0%
Lucas Anacker0%
Iker Bilbao0%
Juan Artola0%
Óscar Rivas0%
Marciano Sanca Tchami0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Yan Eteki38%
Chema33%
Jacobo González31%
Iago López Carracedo24%
Xavier Quintilla23%
Óscar Rivas22%
Dyego Sousa22%
Alejandro López20%
Pedro Mosquera19%
Javier Pérez Mateo17%
Iker Bilbao17%
Víctor García16%
David Morillas14%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi14%
Juan Artola14%
Jean-Sylvain Babin12%
Javier Castro10%
Juanma Bravo8%
Christian Borrego8%
Jesús Ruiz Suárez7%
Fede Vico6%
Javier Lara3%
Emmanuel Addai3%
Álvaro Bustos0%
Lucas Anacker0%
Marciano Sanca Tchami0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Fede Vico19%
Álvaro Bustos12%
Emmanuel Addai11%
Xavier Quintilla9%
Jacobo González8%
Víctor García8%
Iago López Carracedo6%
Juanma Bravo4%
Javier Lara3%
Óscar Rivas3%
Dyego Sousa0%
Pedro Mosquera0%
Jean-Sylvain Babin0%
Yan Eteki0%
David Morillas0%
Alejandro López0%
Chema0%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi0%
Jesús Ruiz Suárez0%
Javier Pérez Mateo0%
Lucas Anacker0%
Iker Bilbao0%
Christian Borrego0%
Juan Artola0%
Javier Castro0%
Marciano Sanca Tchami0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Emmanuel Addai40%
Jacobo González25%
Marciano Sanca Tchami9%
Dyego Sousa9%
Víctor García5%
Juan Artola3%
Óscar Rivas3%
Christian Borrego3%
Xavier Quintilla0%
Fede Vico0%
Pedro Mosquera0%
Jean-Sylvain Babin0%
Yan Eteki0%
David Morillas0%
Javier Lara0%
Alejandro López0%
Chema0%
Álvaro Bustos0%
Juanma Bravo0%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi0%
Iago López Carracedo0%
Jesús Ruiz Suárez0%
Javier Pérez Mateo0%
Lucas Anacker0%
Iker Bilbao0%
Javier Castro0%
Burgos
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Curro32%
Fernando Niño16%
Daniel Ojeda11%
Álex Bermejo Escribano11%
Álex Sancris10%
Matos8%
Kevin Appin6%
Anderson Arroyo6%
Grego Sierra6%
Joni Montiel6%
Ander Martín6%
Borja Gonzalez Tejada3%
Unai Elguezabal3%
Eduardo Espiau3%
José Antonio Caro0%
Esteban Saveljich0%
Andy Rodríguez0%
Aitor Córdoba Querejeta0%
Miguel Atienza0%
Raúl Navarro0%
Miguel Muñoz Mora0%
Javi López-Pinto0%
Lucas Ricoy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Unai Elguezabal31%
Matos26%
Esteban Saveljich25%
Anderson Arroyo25%
Javi López-Pinto25%
Fernando Niño22%
Miguel Muñoz Mora20%
Curro20%
Grego Sierra19%
Joni Montiel18%
Miguel Atienza16%
Kevin Appin16%
Álex Sancris15%
José Antonio Caro12%
Borja Gonzalez Tejada10%
Eduardo Espiau8%
Daniel Ojeda8%
Raúl Navarro8%
Andy Rodríguez7%
Ander Martín6%
Aitor Córdoba Querejeta5%
Álex Bermejo Escribano0%
Lucas Ricoy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andy Rodríguez14%
Esteban Saveljich12%
Álex Sancris12%
Curro12%
Fernando Niño11%
Matos11%
Ander Martín8%
Joni Montiel6%
Daniel Ojeda5%
Álex Bermejo Escribano5%
Borja Gonzalez Tejada3%
Kevin Appin3%
Eduardo Espiau3%
José Antonio Caro0%
Unai Elguezabal0%
Anderson Arroyo0%
Grego Sierra0%
Aitor Córdoba Querejeta0%
Miguel Atienza0%
Raúl Navarro0%
Miguel Muñoz Mora0%
Javi López-Pinto0%
Lucas Ricoy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Curro22%
Fernando Niño16%
Daniel Ojeda13%
Eduardo Espiau8%
Álex Sancris8%
Joni Montiel6%
Álex Bermejo Escribano3%
Kevin Appin0%
José Antonio Caro0%
Matos0%
Esteban Saveljich0%
Unai Elguezabal0%
Anderson Arroyo0%
Borja Gonzalez Tejada0%
Grego Sierra0%
Andy Rodríguez0%
Aitor Córdoba Querejeta0%
Miguel Atienza0%
Raúl Navarro0%
Ander Martín0%
Miguel Muñoz Mora0%
Javi López-Pinto0%
Lucas Ricoy0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Spain: Segunda División 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →