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Aldershot vs Ebbsfleet Result & Analysis

Date: 22/03/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 3-3
Aldershot
Aldershot
Vs
63%
22%
15%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
E
Ebbsfleet
England: National League
Referee: W Davis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aldershot win✗ Miss
63.3%
Avg Implied 71.2% · @ 1.30
Edge
-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
21.8%
Avg Implied 18.2% · @ 5.08
Edge
+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ebbsfleet win✗ Miss
14.9%
Avg Implied 10.6% · @ 8.71
Edge
+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AldershotAldershot

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W22D02L12L32W31W00D31W21W10WA·OLD18/01H·TAM25/01A·EAS15/02A·SOU18/02H·HAR22/02H·SOL25/02H·DAG04/03H·GAT08/03A·ALT15/03A·MAI18/03
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.571.601.331.271.80
vs Stronger (15)1.401.601.330.831.442.11
vs Similar (15)1.471.531.781.671.001.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ebbsfleet) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

E
Ebbsfleet

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L02L00D02L00D24L23L02L12L10WH·BRA25/01A·HAL01/02A·ROC08/02H·YOR15/02H·FOR18/02A·WEA22/02H·TAM01/03A·EAS04/03A·SOL08/03H·FYL15/03
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.772.070.731.730.802.40
vs Stronger (1)1.004.00--1.004.00
vs Similar (17)0.882.240.892.000.882.50
vs Weaker (12)0.581.670.501.330.672.00
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.9%
Under 1.5
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.0%
@ 1.60+0.7%
Under 2.5
41.0%
@ 2.24-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
36.7%
Under 3.5
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.7%
No
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.5%
1-1
10.3%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.0%
3-0
7.4%
3-1
7.0%
0-0
5.6%
2-2
4.7%
Aldershot goals ↓
Ebbsfleet goals →
01234
05.6%3.5%2.1%0.7%0.2%
19.0%10%4.4%1.4%0.3%
210%9.9%4.7%1.5%0.3%
37.4%7.0%3.3%1.0%0.2%
43.9%3.7%1.7%0.6%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aldershot goals (down), columns = Ebbsfleet goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Barnet
2.22
York
2.09
Forest Green
1.80
Rochdale
1.61
Oldham
1.59
Halifax
1.52
Southend
1.48
Gateshead
1.46
Tamworth
1.39
Altrincham
1.39
Sutton
1.30
Hartlepool
1.30
Eastleigh
1.28
Solihull
1.26
Woking
1.26
Aldershot
1.24
Braintree Town
1.22
Yeovil
1.22
Boston Utd
1.20
Wealdstone
1.15
Dag and Red
1.13
Maidenhead
1.13
Fylde
0.87
Ebbsfleet
0.48
Aldershot is 0.76 points better than Ebbsfleet in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 0.48).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Barnet
2.11
York
2.07
Gateshead
1.65
Forest Green
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Rochdale
1.50
Altrincham
1.48
Tamworth
1.41
Oldham
1.39
Dag and Red
1.33
Solihull
1.33
Sutton
1.28
Southend
1.28
Hartlepool
1.28
Eastleigh
1.26
Maidenhead
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Boston Utd
1.17
Woking
1.13
Braintree Town
1.11
Yeovil
1.11
Halifax
1.09
Fylde
1.09
Ebbsfleet
0.83
Aldershot is 0.67 goals better than Ebbsfleet in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 0.83).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Barnet
0.83
Forest Green
0.91
York
0.91
Rochdale
0.96
Halifax
1.00
Oldham
1.04
Southend
1.04
Braintree Town
1.28
Woking
1.28
Yeovil
1.30
Eastleigh
1.33
Dag and Red
1.35
Altrincham
1.35
Hartlepool
1.35
Sutton
1.39
Boston Utd
1.46
Solihull
1.46
Gateshead
1.48
Tamworth
1.57
Maidenhead
1.63
Wealdstone
1.65
Aldershot
1.80
Fylde
1.85
Ebbsfleet
2.13
Aldershot is 0.33 goals better than Ebbsfleet in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 2.13).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
York
63%
Barnet
62%
Gateshead
60%
Rochdale
55%
Southend
53%
Altrincham
51%
Oldham
51%
Aldershot
51%
Woking
50%
Forest Green
50%
Solihull
50%
Yeovil
49%
Sutton
49%
Wealdstone
49%
Halifax
49%
Fylde
46%
Eastleigh
46%
Hartlepool
45%
Braintree Town
45%
Ebbsfleet
44%
Maidenhead
41%
Tamworth
40%
Aldershot is 6.9 percentage points better than Ebbsfleet in terms of average possession (51% vs 44%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AldershotAldershot

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W00D02L00D01L30W00D11D00D00DA·OLD18/01H·TAM25/01A·EAS15/02A·SOU18/02H·HAR22/02H·SOL25/02H·DAG04/03H·GAT08/03A·ALT15/03A·MAI18/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.670.670.600.600.73
vs Stronger (15)0.600.670.330.500.780.78
vs Similar (15)0.670.670.890.670.330.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Ebbsfleet) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

E
Ebbsfleet

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L00D00D00D22D13L01L11D00DH·BRA25/01A·HAL01/02A·ROC08/02H·YOR15/02H·FOR18/02A·WEA22/02H·TAM01/03A·EAS04/03A·SOL08/03H·FYL15/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.230.830.130.600.331.07
vs Stronger (1)0.004.00--0.004.00
vs Similar (17)0.240.710.110.440.381.00
vs Weaker (12)0.250.750.170.830.330.67
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ebbsfleet over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ebbsfleet over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ebbsfleet over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AldershotAldershot

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W22D00D12L31W01L00D20W21W10WA·OLD18/01H·TAM25/01A·EAS15/02A·SOU18/02H·HAR22/02H·SOL25/02H·DAG04/03H·GAT08/03A·ALT15/03A·MAI18/03
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.900.930.730.671.07
vs Stronger (15)0.800.931.000.330.671.33
vs Similar (15)0.800.870.891.000.670.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ebbsfleet) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

E
Ebbsfleet

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L00D02L00D02L10W01L01L10WH·BRA25/01A·HAL01/02A·ROC08/02H·YOR15/02H·FOR18/02A·WEA22/02H·TAM01/03A·EAS04/03A·SOL08/03H·FYL15/03
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.230.601.130.471.33
vs Stronger (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
vs Similar (17)0.651.530.781.560.501.50
vs Weaker (12)0.330.920.330.500.331.33
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ebbsfleet over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ebbsfleet over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ebbsfleet over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards83.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.581.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards70.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (15)
€4m
OLD (21)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
BU (6)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
TAM (4)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
BT (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLD (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
SOU (2)
€0m
BU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
BT (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (9)
€3m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
BU (3)
€0m
EAS (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
BT (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
TAM (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
ALD wins
1
Draws
1
EBB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Aldershot vs Ebbsfleet · H/A from ALD
DateH/AGameScore
10/09/24AEbbsfleet Vs ALD0-0
12/03/24HALD Vs Ebbsfleet4-1
15/08/23AEbbsfleet Vs ALD2-0

AldershotAldershot

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/03/25AMaidenhead Vs ALD0-1
15/03/25AAltrincham Vs ALD1-2
08/03/25HALD Vs Gateshead3-1
04/03/25HALD Vs Dag and Red0-0
25/02/25HALD Vs Solihull3-1
22/02/25HALD Vs Hartlepool3-2
18/02/25ASouthend Vs ALD2-1
15/02/25AEastleigh Vs ALD2-0
25/01/25HALD Vs Tamworth2-2
18/01/25AOldham Vs ALD1-3

E
Ebbsfleet

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/03/25HEBB Vs Fylde1-0
08/03/25ASolihull Vs EBB2-1
04/03/25AEastleigh Vs EBB2-0
01/03/25HEBB Vs Tamworth2-3
22/02/25AWealdstone Vs EBB4-2
18/02/25HEBB Vs Forest Green0-0
15/02/25HEBB Vs York0-2
08/02/25ARochdale Vs EBB0-0
01/02/25AHalifax Vs EBB2-0
25/01/25HEBB Vs Braintree Town0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Aldershot
Aldershot
England: National League
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWW1.28
HomeDWWDW1.62
AwayWLLWW0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%42%23%
AVG goals3.103.252.96
Over 1.5 %82%83%81%
Over 2.5 %58%62%54%
Over 3.5 %40%46%35%
Scored1.461.791.15
Conceded1.641.461.81
BTTS66%67%65%
Clean Sheet16%17%15%
Corners---
Cards4.504.174.80
E
Ebbsfleet
England: National League
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW0.72
HomeLLDLW1.00
AwayLDLLL0.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %14%24%4%
AVG goals2.782.443.12
Over 1.5 %74%64%84%
Over 2.5 %52%44%60%
Over 3.5 %36%24%48%
Scored0.860.880.84
Conceded1.921.562.28
BTTS50%44%56%
Clean Sheet20%24%16%
Corners---
Cards3.923.804.04

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BarnetBarnet46102
67%
2.2
9738+59
2.9
78%
61%
35%
-
0%
4.0
61%
-
0%
4
0132.10.8
62%
2YorkYork4696
63%
2.1
9542+53
3.0
87%
57%
30%
-
0%
4.0
57%
-
0%
1
0012.10.9
63%
3Forest GreenForest Green4683
48%
1.8
6942+27
2.4
76%
43%
20%
-
0%
3.4
41%
-
0%
1
0001.50.9
50%
4RochdaleRochdale4674
46%
1.6
6944+25
2.5
67%
48%
26%
-
0%
2.8
30%
-
0%
2
1111.51.0
55%
5OldhamOldham4673
41%
1.6
6448+16
2.4
74%
43%
26%
-
0%
4.0
59%
-
0%
3
1111.41.0
51%
6HalifaxHalifax4670
41%
1.5
5046+4
2.1
59%
35%
17%
-
0%
4.0
54%
-
0%
0
0001.11.0
49%
7SouthendSouthend4668
37%
1.5
5948+11
2.3
74%
43%
24%
-
0%
3.5
46%
-
0%
1
0001.31.0
53%
8GatesheadGateshead4667
41%
1.5
7668+8
3.1
80%
57%
46%
-
0%
3.9
59%
-
0%
0
0001.71.5
60%
9AltrinchamAltrincham4664
37%
1.4
6862+6
2.8
78%
63%
26%
-
0%
4.3
70%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
51%
10TamworthTamworth4664
37%
1.4
6572-7
3.0
87%
54%
30%
-
0%
4.8
65%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
40%
11HartlepoolHartlepool4660
30%
1.3
5962-3
2.6
70%
41%
24%
-
0%
4.2
59%
-
0%
1
0001.31.3
45%
12SuttonSutton4660
33%
1.3
5964-5
2.7
74%
52%
24%
-
0%
4.6
65%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
49%
13EastleighEastleigh4659
30%
1.3
5861-3
2.6
78%
46%
26%
-
0%
4.5
65%
-
0%
1
0001.31.3
46%
14SolihullSolihull4658
35%
1.3
6167-6
2.8
72%
46%
26%
-
0%
4.4
65%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
50%
15WokingWoking4658
28%
1.3
5259-7
2.4
74%
46%
24%
-
0%
4.5
70%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
50%
16AldershotAldershot4657
30%
1.2
6983-14
3.3
85%
63%
43%
-
0%
4.3
63%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
51%
17Braintree TownBraintree Town4656
33%
1.2
5159-8
2.4
63%
46%
26%
-
0%
4.4
65%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
45%
18YeovilYeovil4656
33%
1.2
5160-9
2.4
65%
50%
24%
-
0%
4.0
59%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
49%
19Boston UtdBoston Utd4655
33%
1.2
5467-13
2.6
76%
59%
28%
-
0%
4.1
54%
-
0%
1
0001.21.5
-
20WealdstoneWealdstone4653
28%
1.2
5676-20
2.9
80%
52%
33%
-
0%
3.9
61%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
49%
21
DA
Dag and Red
4652
26%
1.1
6162-1
2.7
76%
43%
24%
-
0%
3.5
48%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
22
M
Maidenhead
4652
30%
1.1
5775-18
2.9
76%
50%
39%
-
0%
3.3
43%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
41%
23
F
Fylde
4640
24%
0.9
5085-35
2.9
83%
57%
26%
-
0%
4.2
59%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
46%
24
E
Ebbsfleet
4622
7%
0.5
3898-60
3.0
76%
54%
43%
-
0%
3.8
52%
-
0%
0
0000.82.1
44%
England: National League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

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