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Aldershot vs Gateshead Result & Analysis

Date: 08/03/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 3-1
Aldershot
Aldershot
Vs
30%
25%
45%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Gateshead
Gateshead
England: National League
Referee: R Massey-Ellis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aldershot win✓ Hit
30.0%
Avg Implied 35.5% · @ 2.61
Edge
-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied 26.9% · @ 3.44
Edge
-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gateshead win✗ Miss
45.2%
Avg Implied 37.6% · @ 2.46
Edge
+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AldershotAldershot

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D11D22D31W22D02L12L32W31W00DH·WOK26/12A·SUT01/01H·BRA14/01A·OLD18/01H·TAM25/01A·EAS15/02A·SOU18/02H·HAR22/02H·SOL25/02H·DAG04/03
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.671.561.501.141.86
vs Stronger (16)1.311.751.291.291.332.11
vs Similar (14)1.431.571.781.670.801.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Gateshead) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GatesheadGateshead

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L00D11D40W01L43W31W11D11D01LH·HAL14/01A·YEO17/01H·OLD25/01A·WEA08/02H·ALT15/02H·SUT18/02A·SOL22/02A·EAS25/02H·FYL01/03A·ROC04/03
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.431.571.431.751.44
vs Stronger (6)1.502.501.002.001.752.75
vs Similar (23)1.701.131.641.271.751.00
vs Weaker (1)2.002.002.002.00--
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.7%
Under 1.5
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.3%
@ 1.63+6.2%
Under 2.5
36.7%
@ 2.17-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.1%
Under 3.5
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.0%
No
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
1-2
9.1%
2-1
7.3%
2-2
6.6%
0-2
6.3%
0-1
5.9%
1-3
5.5%
0-0
4.8%
Aldershot goals ↓
Gateshead goals →
01234
04.8%5.9%6.3%3.8%1.7%
14.6%11%9.1%5.5%2.5%
24.0%7.3%6.6%4.0%1.8%
32.0%3.5%3.2%1.9%0.9%
40.7%1.3%1.2%0.7%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aldershot goals (down), columns = Gateshead goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Barnet
2.22
York
2.09
Forest Green
1.80
Rochdale
1.61
Oldham
1.59
Halifax
1.52
Southend
1.48
Gateshead
1.46
Tamworth
1.39
Altrincham
1.39
Sutton
1.30
Hartlepool
1.30
Eastleigh
1.28
Solihull
1.26
Woking
1.26
Aldershot
1.24
Braintree Town
1.22
Yeovil
1.22
Boston Utd
1.20
Wealdstone
1.15
Dag and Red
1.13
Maidenhead
1.13
Fylde
0.87
Ebbsfleet
0.48
Aldershot is 0.22 points worse than Gateshead in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 1.46).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Barnet
2.11
York
2.07
Gateshead
1.65
Forest Green
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Rochdale
1.50
Altrincham
1.48
Tamworth
1.41
Oldham
1.39
Dag and Red
1.33
Solihull
1.33
Sutton
1.28
Southend
1.28
Hartlepool
1.28
Eastleigh
1.26
Maidenhead
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Boston Utd
1.17
Woking
1.13
Braintree Town
1.11
Yeovil
1.11
Halifax
1.09
Fylde
1.09
Ebbsfleet
0.83
Aldershot is 0.15 goals worse than Gateshead in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.65).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Barnet
0.83
Forest Green
0.91
York
0.91
Rochdale
0.96
Halifax
1.00
Oldham
1.04
Southend
1.04
Braintree Town
1.28
Woking
1.28
Yeovil
1.30
Eastleigh
1.33
Dag and Red
1.35
Altrincham
1.35
Hartlepool
1.35
Sutton
1.39
Boston Utd
1.46
Solihull
1.46
Gateshead
1.48
Tamworth
1.57
Maidenhead
1.63
Wealdstone
1.65
Aldershot
1.80
Fylde
1.85
Ebbsfleet
2.13
Aldershot is 0.33 goals worse than Gateshead in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 1.48).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
York
63%
Barnet
62%
Gateshead
60%
Rochdale
55%
Southend
53%
Altrincham
51%
Oldham
51%
Aldershot
51%
Woking
50%
Forest Green
50%
Solihull
50%
Yeovil
49%
Sutton
49%
Wealdstone
49%
Halifax
49%
Fylde
46%
Eastleigh
46%
Hartlepool
45%
Braintree Town
45%
Ebbsfleet
44%
Maidenhead
41%
Tamworth
40%
Aldershot is 8.6 percentage points worse than Gateshead in terms of average possession (51% vs 60%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AldershotAldershot

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L22D21W00D02L00D01L30W00DH·WOK26/12A·SUT01/01H·BRA14/01A·OLD18/01H·TAM25/01A·EAS15/02A·SOU18/02H·HAR22/02H·SOL25/02H·DAG04/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.730.620.690.640.79
vs Stronger (16)0.560.750.290.710.780.78
vs Similar (14)0.710.710.890.670.400.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Gateshead) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GatesheadGateshead

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D01L20W01L21W10W00D10W00DH·HAL14/01A·YEO17/01H·OLD25/01A·WEA08/02H·ALT15/02H·SUT18/02A·SOL22/02A·EAS25/02H·FYL01/03A·ROC04/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.600.930.640.810.56
vs Stronger (6)0.830.671.000.500.750.75
vs Similar (23)0.830.570.820.640.830.50
vs Weaker (1)2.001.002.001.00--
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AldershotAldershot

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W00D10W22D00D12L31W01L00DH·WOK26/12A·SUT01/01H·BRA14/01A·OLD18/01H·TAM25/01A·EAS15/02A·SOU18/02H·HAR22/02H·SOL25/02H·DAG04/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.930.940.810.501.07
vs Stronger (16)0.751.001.000.570.561.33
vs Similar (14)0.710.860.891.000.400.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Gateshead) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GatesheadGateshead

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D10W20W00D22D21W11D01L01LH·HAL14/01A·YEO17/01H·OLD25/01A·WEA08/02H·ALT15/02H·SUT18/02A·SOL22/02A·EAS25/02H·FYL01/03A·ROC04/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.830.640.790.940.88
vs Stronger (6)0.671.830.001.501.002.00
vs Similar (23)0.870.570.820.640.920.50
vs Weaker (1)0.001.000.001.00--
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gateshead over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards82.7%-------✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards70.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (15)
€4m
OLD (21)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
BU (6)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
TAM (4)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Aldershot and Gateshead have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
BT (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Aldershot and Gateshead have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLD (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
SOU (2)
€0m
BU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
BT (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (9)
€3m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
BU (3)
€0m
EAS (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
BT (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
TAM (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Aldershot and Gateshead have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
2
ALD wins
2
Draws
1
GAT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Aldershot vs Gateshead · H/A from ALD
DateH/AGameScore
16/11/24AGateshead Vs ALD2-2
17/04/24AGateshead Vs ALD0-1
16/09/23HALD Vs Gateshead1-1
25/03/23HALD Vs Gateshead2-3
03/12/22AGateshead Vs ALD0-2

AldershotAldershot

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/03/25HALD Vs Dag and Red0-0
25/02/25HALD Vs Solihull3-1
22/02/25HALD Vs Hartlepool3-2
18/02/25ASouthend Vs ALD2-1
15/02/25AEastleigh Vs ALD2-0
25/01/25HALD Vs Tamworth2-2
18/01/25AOldham Vs ALD1-3
14/01/25HALD Vs Braintree Town2-2
01/01/25ASutton Vs ALD1-1
26/12/24HALD Vs Woking2-2

GatesheadGateshead

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/03/25ARochdale Vs GAT1-0
01/03/25HGAT Vs Fylde1-1
25/02/25AEastleigh Vs GAT1-1
22/02/25ASolihull Vs GAT1-3
18/02/25HGAT Vs Sutton4-3
15/02/25HGAT Vs Altrincham0-1
08/02/25AWealdstone Vs GAT0-4
25/01/25HGAT Vs Oldham1-1
17/01/25AYeovil Vs GAT0-0
14/01/25HGAT Vs Halifax1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Aldershot
Aldershot
England: National League
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWD1.22
HomeDDWWD1.62
AwayDDWLL0.79
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%42%17%
AVG goals3.103.153.04
Over 1.5 %82%81%83%
Over 2.5 %56%58%54%
Over 3.5 %40%42%38%
Scored1.401.651.12
Conceded1.701.501.92
BTTS62%58%67%
Clean Sheet18%23%12%
Corners---
Cards4.624.404.87
Gateshead
Gateshead
England: National League
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDDL1.60
HomeLDLWD1.92
AwayDWWDL1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%60%32%
AVG goals3.183.163.20
Over 1.5 %78%72%84%
Over 2.5 %54%52%56%
Over 3.5 %42%40%44%
Scored1.801.961.64
Conceded1.381.201.56
BTTS60%56%64%
Clean Sheet24%28%20%
Corners---
Cards4.064.044.08

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BarnetBarnet46102
67%
2.2
9738+59
2.9
78%
61%
35%
-
0%
4.0
61%
-
0%
4
0132.10.8
62%
2YorkYork4696
63%
2.1
9542+53
3.0
87%
57%
30%
-
0%
4.0
57%
-
0%
1
0012.10.9
63%
3Forest GreenForest Green4683
48%
1.8
6942+27
2.4
76%
43%
20%
-
0%
3.4
41%
-
0%
1
0001.50.9
50%
4RochdaleRochdale4674
46%
1.6
6944+25
2.5
67%
48%
26%
-
0%
2.8
30%
-
0%
2
1111.51.0
55%
5OldhamOldham4673
41%
1.6
6448+16
2.4
74%
43%
26%
-
0%
4.0
59%
-
0%
3
1111.41.0
51%
6HalifaxHalifax4670
41%
1.5
5046+4
2.1
59%
35%
17%
-
0%
4.0
54%
-
0%
0
0001.11.0
49%
7SouthendSouthend4668
37%
1.5
5948+11
2.3
74%
43%
24%
-
0%
3.5
46%
-
0%
1
0001.31.0
53%
8GatesheadGateshead4667
41%
1.5
7668+8
3.1
80%
57%
46%
-
0%
3.9
59%
-
0%
0
0001.71.5
60%
9AltrinchamAltrincham4664
37%
1.4
6862+6
2.8
78%
63%
26%
-
0%
4.3
70%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
51%
10TamworthTamworth4664
37%
1.4
6572-7
3.0
87%
54%
30%
-
0%
4.8
65%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
40%
11HartlepoolHartlepool4660
30%
1.3
5962-3
2.6
70%
41%
24%
-
0%
4.2
59%
-
0%
1
0001.31.3
45%
12SuttonSutton4660
33%
1.3
5964-5
2.7
74%
52%
24%
-
0%
4.6
65%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
49%
13EastleighEastleigh4659
30%
1.3
5861-3
2.6
78%
46%
26%
-
0%
4.5
65%
-
0%
1
0001.31.3
46%
14SolihullSolihull4658
35%
1.3
6167-6
2.8
72%
46%
26%
-
0%
4.4
65%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
50%
15WokingWoking4658
28%
1.3
5259-7
2.4
74%
46%
24%
-
0%
4.5
70%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
50%
16AldershotAldershot4657
30%
1.2
6983-14
3.3
85%
63%
43%
-
0%
4.3
63%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
51%
17Braintree TownBraintree Town4656
33%
1.2
5159-8
2.4
63%
46%
26%
-
0%
4.4
65%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
45%
18YeovilYeovil4656
33%
1.2
5160-9
2.4
65%
50%
24%
-
0%
4.0
59%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
49%
19Boston UtdBoston Utd4655
33%
1.2
5467-13
2.6
76%
59%
28%
-
0%
4.1
54%
-
0%
1
0001.21.5
-
20WealdstoneWealdstone4653
28%
1.2
5676-20
2.9
80%
52%
33%
-
0%
3.9
61%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
49%
21
DA
Dag and Red
4652
26%
1.1
6162-1
2.7
76%
43%
24%
-
0%
3.5
48%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
22
M
Maidenhead
4652
30%
1.1
5775-18
2.9
76%
50%
39%
-
0%
3.3
43%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
41%
23
F
Fylde
4640
24%
0.9
5085-35
2.9
83%
57%
26%
-
0%
4.2
59%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
46%
24
E
Ebbsfleet
4622
7%
0.5
3898-60
3.0
76%
54%
43%
-
0%
3.8
52%
-
0%
0
0000.82.1
44%
England: National League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

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