Aldershot’s recent draw and low scoring output (0.29 goals per game) contrast sharply with Harrogate’s stronger form, which the model rates as the clear favourite. The prediction favours an away win, with a 65% chance, 14% for a home win and 22% for a draw. The expected total goals is 3.0, yet the most likely total is 2, with a 24% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 0-2 for Harrogate, carrying an 11.3% chance. Aldershot averages 2.14 goals conceded at home against stronger opponents, while Harrogate’s away scoring and conceding figures are not listed but are implied to be superior. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.8% edge 7), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.9% edge 7), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.1% edge 5), Under 6.5 (96.8% edge 2), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.2% edge 5), Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.5% edge 6), and Away +2 handicap (95.5% edge 8).
Results analysis
The upset was clear: the pre-match favourite, Away win, did not materialise, and the model’s call was wrong. Aldershot edged Harrogate 3-1, extending their recent win streak. The model had predicted a 65% chance of an away victory, yet the home side prevailed. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 hit at 98.9%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 98.8%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.8%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.1%, Under 6.5 hit at 96.8%. However, Home under 2.5 HT goals missed, Away +2 handicap missed, and Home under 2.5 goals missed, all with probabilities above 94%. The final score confirmed a home win, contradicting the model’s favourite.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aldershot win✓ Hit
13.6%
Avg Implied 31.1% · @ 2.94
Edge
-17.6%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.20
Unibet
3.15
Dafabet
3.00
Pinnacle
2.98
1xBet
2.94
Draw✗ Miss
21.6%
Avg Implied 25.8% · @ 3.55
Edge
-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.77
Bet365
3.75
Dafabet
3.70
Betano
3.65
Superbet
3.65
Harrogate win✗ Miss
64.8%
Avg Implied 43.1% · @ 2.13
Edge
+21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.23
William Hil
2.20
Betano
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Dafabet
2.16
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aldershot
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.63
1.13
1.93
1.53
1.33
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
1.22
0.20
1.60
1.75
0.75
vs Similar (21)
1.52
1.81
1.60
2.10
1.45
1.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Harrogate) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Harrogate
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.43
1.00
1.73
1.13
1.13
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.86
0.00
1.75
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.30
1.30
1.36
1.73
1.25
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.7%
@ 1.18+2.3%
Under 1.5
19.3%
@ 4.27-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Pinnacle
4.49
BetVictor
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.2%
@ 1.64+0.2%
Under 2.5
42.8%
@ 2.17-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.68
Unibet
1.68
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
Under
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.22
Pinnacle
2.22
10Bet
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.8%
@ 2.56-1.4%
Under 3.5
65.2%
@ 1.45+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.75
Pinnacle
2.67
Betfair
2.60
Betano
2.55
Marathonbet
2.52
Under
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.1%
@ 1.54-7.7%
No
47.9%
@ 2.29+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.62
William Hil
1.55
Unibet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.54
No
Betfair
2.40
BetVictor
2.38
Betano
2.32
1xBet
2.32
Superbet
2.32
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.3%@ 10.79+7.3%
1-1
10.3%@ 6.55+3.7%
1-2
9.8%@ 7.83+4.3%
0-1
9.8%@ 8.76+4.8%
0-3
7.9%@ 18.17+5.5%
1-3
6.9%@ 13.80+3.8%
0-0
6.0%@ 12.45+2.5%
2-2
4.3%@ 10.68+0.2%
Aldershot goals ↓
Harrogate goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
9.8%
11%
7.9%
4.2%
1
3.5%
10%
9.8%
6.9%
3.6%
2
1.9%
4.1%
4.3%
3.0%
1.6%
3
0.6%
1.2%
1.3%
0.9%
0.5%
4
0.1%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aldershot goals (down), columns = Harrogate goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barrow
2.18
Harrogate
2.08
Carlisle
2.04
Boreham Wood
1.90
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Fylde
1.38
Kidderminster
1.38
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Solihull
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Eastleigh
1.09
Gateshead
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Aldershot is 1.08 points worse than Harrogate in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barrow
2.30
Harrogate
2.20
Boreham Wood
2.00
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Woking
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Fylde
1.45
Kidderminster
1.45
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Hartlepool
1.17
Gateshead
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Aldershot is 0.70 goals worse than Harrogate in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 2.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Barrow
0.92
Harrogate
0.96
Southend
1.02
Carlisle
1.11
Forest Green
1.11
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Fylde
1.46
Kidderminster
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Aldershot is 0.93 goals worse than Harrogate in terms of goals conceded per game (1.89 vs 0.96).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Eastleigh
41%
Tamworth
38%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Aldershot or Draw✓ Hit
35.2%
Avg Implied 55.7% · @ 1.66
Edge
-20.5%
14%
22%
65%
covers Aldershot + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.77
SBO
1.75
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.62
Aldershot or Harrogate✓ Hit
78.4%
Avg Implied 74.6% · @ 1.24
Edge
+3.8%
14%
22%
65%
covers Aldershot + Harrogate
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Draw or Harrogate✗ Miss
86.4%
Avg Implied 69.6% · @ 1.33
Edge
+16.8%
14%
22%
65%
covers Draw + Harrogate
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Betfair
1.36
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Aldershot over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
58.2%
@ 1.27-14.7%
Under
41.8%
@ 3.43+14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Under
Pinnacle
3.64
BetVictor
3.60
Betfair
3.50
Superbet
3.50
1xBet
3.42
Aldershot over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
21.8%
@ 2.34-17.9%
Under
78.2%
@ 1.53+17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Unibet
2.40
Pinnacle
2.39
10Bet
2.38
1xBet
2.31
Under
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.57
Betfair
1.57
BetVictor
1.55
Aldershot over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
5.8%
@ 5.31-11.6%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.12+11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.40
1xBet
5.30
Marathonbet
5.30
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Aldershot over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 12.75-6.2%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.03+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Harrogate over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
87.8%
@ 1.16+8.1%
Under
12.2%
@ 4.56-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Under
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
10Bet
4.50
1xBet
4.40
Harrogate over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
62.1%
@ 1.89+13.1%
Under
37.9%
@ 1.81-13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.00
Pinnacle
1.96
BetVictor
1.93
Betano
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Under
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
Superbet
1.80
Harrogate over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
35.1%
@ 3.85+11.0%
Under
64.9%
@ 1.22-11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.10
Pinnacle
4.05
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
Under
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Harrogate over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
16.2%
@ 7.94+4.4%
Under
83.8%
@ 1.06-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
8.10
Bet365
8.00
Betano
7.50
1xBet
6.60
Under
Bet365
1.08
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Aldershot, so a minus line means Aldershot give that many goals of a start and Harrogate receive them. At -1, Aldershot must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Aldershot win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Aldershot)Actual: Draw
Aldershot -2
1.1%
@ 14.00-5.4%
Draw -2
3.4%
@ 8.33-7.5%
Harrogate +2
95.5%
@ 1.11+13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Draw
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
8.50
Superbet
7.50
Away
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.08
Handicap -1 (Aldershot)Actual: Aldershot
Aldershot -1
4.5%
@ 5.83-10.5%
Draw -1
9.1%
@ 4.54-10.2%
Harrogate +1
86.4%
@ 1.33+20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.90
Superbet
5.45
Draw
Bet365
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
Superbet
4.65
Betfair
4.50
Away
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
Handicap +1 (Aldershot)Actual: Aldershot
Aldershot +1
35.2%
@ 1.64-18.2%
Draw +1
23.1%
@ 3.82+0.2%
Harrogate -1
41.7%
@ 3.70+18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.59
Unibet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Draw
Superbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
Unibet
3.20
Away
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
3.86
Superbet
3.85
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
3.20
Handicap +2 (Aldershot)Actual: Aldershot
Aldershot +2
58.3%
@ 1.19-15.8%
Draw +2
20.0%
@ 5.95+5.1%
Harrogate -2
21.7%
@ 8.04+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.25
Superbet
5.90
Unibet
4.60
Away
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.00
Superbet
7.70
Unibet
6.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aldershot
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.90
0.67
1.20
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.00
0.20
1.20
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.86
0.90
1.20
0.45
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Harrogate) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Harrogate
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.40
0.53
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.39
0.55
0.36
0.75
0.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.4%
@ 1.28+1.3%
Under 0.5
26.6%
@ 3.33-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Under
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
BetVictor
3.40
William Hil
3.40
10Bet
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
35.4%
@ 2.37-3.5%
Under 1.5
64.6%
@ 1.51+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.50
Betano
2.47
Betfair
2.40
1xBet
2.38
Marathonbet
2.38
Under
William Hil
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
13.1%
@ 5.65-3.3%
Under 2.5
86.9%
@ 1.11+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
BetVictor
6.00
William Hil
5.80
Marathonbet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Under
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
BetVictor
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
47.9%
@ 2.03+2.6%
Under
52.1%
@ 1.69-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.09
Betano
2.05
Unibet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
Under
Pinnacle
1.73
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.67
Aldershot over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
14.5%
@ 6.30-0.1%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.08+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.70
1xBet
6.70
Superbet
6.00
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Aldershot over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
2.2%
@ 15.88-3.8%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.02+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Harrogate over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
48.5%
@ 1.80-2.6%
Under
51.5%
@ 1.88+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.83
Superbet
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Superbet
1.90
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
Harrogate over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
16.3%
@ 5.05-2.0%
Under
83.7%
@ 1.13+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.20
Betano
4.90
Superbet
4.90
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Harrogate over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 12.88-5.1%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.02+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aldershot
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.73
0.47
0.73
1.13
0.73
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
0.22
0.00
0.40
1.50
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.95
0.70
0.90
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Harrogate) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Harrogate
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.90
0.60
1.20
0.47
0.60
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.86
0.00
0.75
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.91
0.82
1.36
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.3%
@ 1.17-1.3%
Under 0.5
21.7%
@ 4.54+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betano
4.60
Superbet
4.45
William Hil
4.40
Marathonbet
4.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
50.6%
@ 1.83+0.2%
Under 1.5
49.4%
@ 1.86-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.85
William Hil
1.83
Betano
1.83
Under
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Superbet
1.87
William Hil
1.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
21.0%
@ 3.57-5.0%
Under 2.5
79.0%
@ 1.25+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.75
Marathonbet
3.58
1xBet
3.58
Superbet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Under
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.21
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
50.7%
@ 1.72-3.1%
Under
49.3%
@ 2.00+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.71
Under
Betano
2.05
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.95
Aldershot over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.1%
@ 4.51-3.3%
Under
82.9%
@ 1.16+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.75
1xBet
4.60
Superbet
4.45
Betano
4.25
Under
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
Aldershot over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 11.25-5.4%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.03+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
Harrogate over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
53.1%
@ 1.56-6.5%
Under
46.9%
@ 2.30+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.57
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Under
Betano
2.35
1xBet
2.30
Superbet
2.25
Harrogate over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
21.9%
@ 3.61-3.7%
Under
78.1%
@ 1.24+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.65
1xBet
3.60
Betano
3.50
Under
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Harrogate over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.0%
@ 9.47-2.9%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.03+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.50
Superbet
9.90
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.8%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Betfair
1.01
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
95.5%
1.11
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.08
-
-
+13.0%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
94.2%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
+11.6%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.0%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
91.8%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
BetVictor
1.03
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
87.8%
1.16
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
1xBet
1.15
+8.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
BetVictor
1.10
+3.3%
✗ Miss
Draw or Away
86.4%
1.33
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Betfair
1.36
+16.8%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.5%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
-
+0.1%
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
83.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.08
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
83.7%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.9%
1.16
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
81.9%
1.15
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Pinnacle
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Betfair
1.14
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.7%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.0%
1.25
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.21
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.4%
1.24
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.3%
1.17
Betano
1.19
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.14
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
78.2%
1.53
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.57
Betfair
1.57
BetVictor
1.55
+17.9%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
78.1%
1.24
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.4%
1.28
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
+1.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Harrogate · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aiden Marsh25%
Tobias Brenan19%
Stephen Duke-McKenna17%
Jack Muldoon17%
Tom Cursons15%
Ellis Taylor14%
Conor McAleny14%
Emmerson Sutton11%
Shawn McCoulsky8%
Bryn Morris7%
Chanse Headman6%
Cathal Heffernan5%
Jack Evans5%
Reece Smith4%
Warren Burrell4%
Jacob Slater3%
James Belshaw0%
Josh Falkingham0%
George Thomson0%
Kyle Jameson0%
Mason Bennett0%
Ben Fox0%
Liam Gibson0%
Mark Oxley0%
Emile Acquah0%
Levi Sutton0%
Anthony O'Connor0%
Lewis Cass0%
Tom Bradbury0%
Thomas Hill0%
Zico Asare0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
Henry Gray0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Thomas Hill44%
Chanse Headman38%
Josh Falkingham33%
Anthony O'Connor27%
Tobias Brenan25%
Jack Evans23%
Kyle Jameson20%
Ben Fox19%
Bryn Morris19%
Jack Muldoon13%
Levi Sutton13%
Shawn McCoulsky12%
Warren Burrell12%
Tom Bradbury11%
Henry Gray11%
Ellis Taylor10%
Mason Bennett9%
Tom Cursons8%
George Thomson7%
Stephen Duke-McKenna7%
Zico Asare7%
Jacob Slater6%
Liam Gibson6%
Emile Acquah5%
Cathal Heffernan5%
Conor McAleny5%
Bobby Faulkner5%
Lewis Cass4%
Reece Smith2%
James Belshaw0%
Mark Oxley0%
Aiden Marsh0%
Emmerson Sutton0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Thomas Hill22%
Liam Gibson17%
Mark Oxley11%
Reece Smith11%
Jack Evans9%
Shawn McCoulsky8%
Levi Sutton7%
Ben Fox6%
Tobias Brenan6%
Bryn Morris5%
Warren Burrell4%
Anthony O'Connor4%
Lewis Cass4%
Stephen Duke-McKenna3%
Ellis Taylor3%
Jack Muldoon3%
Jacob Slater3%
James Belshaw0%
Josh Falkingham0%
George Thomson0%
Kyle Jameson0%
Mason Bennett0%
Emile Acquah0%
Conor McAleny0%
Tom Bradbury0%
Zico Asare0%
Aiden Marsh0%
Cathal Heffernan0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
Henry Gray0%
Emmerson Sutton0%
Tom Cursons0%
Chanse Headman0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Aiden Marsh25%
Shawn McCoulsky12%
Ellis Taylor10%
Emile Acquah10%
Bryn Morris9%
Conor McAleny9%
Stephen Duke-McKenna7%
Jack Muldoon7%
Tobias Brenan6%
Anthony O'Connor4%
Reece Smith2%
James Belshaw0%
Warren Burrell0%
Josh Falkingham0%
George Thomson0%
Kyle Jameson0%
Mason Bennett0%
Ben Fox0%
Liam Gibson0%
Mark Oxley0%
Levi Sutton0%
Lewis Cass0%
Tom Bradbury0%
Thomas Hill0%
Zico Asare0%
Jack Evans0%
Cathal Heffernan0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
Henry Gray0%
Jacob Slater0%
Emmerson Sutton0%
Tom Cursons0%
Chanse Headman0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
BU (6)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
SCU (2)
€0m
TAM (4)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Aldershot's squad is €1m less valuable than Harrogate's (€0m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Aldershot and Harrogate have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
SOU (2)
€0m
BU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Aldershot and Harrogate have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
BU (3)
€0m
EAS (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
TAM (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Aldershot and Harrogate have a similar defence value (both €0m).
England: National League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sutton
Yeovil
Boreham Wood
Southend
Eastleigh
Boston Utd
Halifax
Hartlepool
Altrincham
Carlisle
Wealdstone
Scunthorpe
Woking
Gateshead
Forest Green
Barrow
Tamworth
Solihull