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Alloa vs Queen of Sth Result & Analysis

Date: 02/05/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 1-4
A
Alloa
Vs
45%
29%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
QO
Queen of Sth
Scotland: League One
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Alloa a 45% win probability against Queen of Sth in the Scotland: League One on 2026-05-02, with 29% for the draw and 26% for Queen of Sth. The model estimates around 2.5 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (27%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.8%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 2.5 cards (84%), Over 19.5 fouls (83%), Under 11.5 corners (80%), Under 3.5 (76%).

Results analysis

Alloa finished 1-4 against Queen of Sth (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 45% home win, 29% draw and 26% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (72%). Missed: Over 2.5 cards (84%), Over 19.5 fouls (83%), Under 11.5 corners (80%), Under 3.5 (76%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Alloa win✗ Miss
45.1%
Avg Implied 41.1% · @ 2.18
Edge
+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied 26.3% · @ 3.41
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Queen of Sth win✓ Hit
26.0%
Avg Implied 32.6% · @ 2.75
Edge
-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

A
Alloa

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W21W13L45L11D12L10W01L20W01LA·EAS28/02H·KEL07/03A·PET10/03A·MON14/03H·INV21/03H·PET28/03A·COV04/04A·HAM11/04H·EAS18/04A·STE25/04
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.031.730.801.271.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.751.042.180.911.381.15
vs Weaker (6)0.501.000.500.500.502.00
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen of Sth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QO
Queen of Sth

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-323L02L11D31W22D11D11D20W11D22DA·MON21/02H·PET28/02H·STE07/03A·HAM14/03H·EAS21/03A·INV27/03A·KEL04/04H·COV11/04A·PET18/04H·MON25/04
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.371.601.131.401.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)1.591.371.691.151.501.57
vs Weaker (3)0.671.331.001.000.002.00
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%10%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.2%
Under 1.5
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.2%
@ 1.65-10.3%
Under 2.5
54.8%
@ 2.06+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.9%
Under 3.5
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.7%
No
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
10.8%
0-0
9.6%
2-1
9.0%
2-0
8.7%
0-1
7.4%
1-2
6.5%
2-2
4.7%
Alloa goals ↓
Queen of Sth goals →
01234
09.6%7.4%4.5%1.6%0.4%
111%14%6.5%2.3%0.6%
28.7%9.0%4.7%1.6%0.4%
34.2%4.4%2.3%0.8%0.2%
41.5%1.6%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alloa goals (down), columns = Queen of Sth goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Inverness CT
2.06
Stenhousemuir
1.86
Hamilton
1.53
Queen of Sth
1.50
Alloa
1.47
Clyde
1.25
Peterhead
1.19
Montrose
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.06
East Fife
1.00
Kelty Hearts
0.81
Spartans
0.50
Forfar
0.00
Alloa is 0.03 points worse than Queen of Sth in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Clyde
1.75
Inverness CT
1.67
Queen of Sth
1.61
Hamilton
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.39
Alloa
1.39
Montrose
1.33
Peterhead
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.14
Forfar
1.00
East Fife
0.94
Kelty Hearts
0.92
Spartans
0.50
Alloa is 0.22 goals worse than Queen of Sth in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.61).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Inverness CT
0.67
Stenhousemuir
0.75
Alloa
1.06
Hamilton
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.22
Queen of Sth
1.31
Spartans
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Hamilton Academical
1.50
East Fife
1.69
Kelty Hearts
1.72
Peterhead
1.78
Montrose
1.86
Forfar
2.50
Alloa is 0.25 goals better than Queen of Sth in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.31).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

A
Alloa

For 3.8 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.2

🚩 Corners

150171343886462487456584781410615911A·STEH·EASA·HAMA·COVH·PETH·INVA·MONA·PETH·KELA·EAS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.1

🟨 Cards

6022221123331242113422433646346A·STEH·EASA·HAMA·COVH·PETH·INVA·MONA·PETH·KELA·EAS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 11.4 · Total 23.2

⚠️ Fouls

29091511712810151712121011141310141191224182025292225232521A·STEH·EASA·HAMA·COVH·PETH·INVA·MONA·PETH·KELA·EAS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

QO
Queen of Sth

For 4.4 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.8

🚩 Corners

15022577527225468387853412129491411158H·MONA·PETH·COVA·KELA·INVH·EASA·HAMH·STEH·PETA·MON
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.6

🟨 Cards

1004431152321211373347275314103H·MONA·PETH·COVA·KELA·INVH·EASA·HAMH·STEH·PETA·MON
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 11.1 · Total 23.7

⚠️ Fouls

330141918111191091171115951019207121033292019182614292722H·MONA·PETH·COVA·KELA·INVH·EASA·HAMH·STEH·PETA·MON
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

A
Alloa

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.79.59.94.34.34.322.622.522.7
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (35)9.89.69.94.64.24.923.122.723.4
vs Weaker (15)9.69.110.03.84.63.121.522.021.0
% over line46%46%46%56%54%58%58%58%58%
% under line54%54%54%44%46%42%42%42%42%
This opponent (Queen of Sth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QO
Queen of Sth

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.68.68.64.94.85.023.823.524.2
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (41)8.58.28.85.04.95.223.123.223.1
vs Weaker (9)8.810.27.64.34.04.627.025.228.4
% over line30%36%24%72%68%76%66%64%68%
% under line70%64%76%28%32%24%34%36%32%
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Hamilton
10.4
East Fife
9.7
Alloa
9.7
Clyde
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.5
Inverness CT
9.2
Spartans
9.1
Kelty Hearts
9.1
Forfar
8.8
Peterhead
8.8
Stenhousemuir
8.6
Queen of Sth
8.6
Montrose
8.5

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Peterhead
5.1
Queen of Sth
4.9
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Forfar
4.4
Clyde
4.4
Alloa
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.3
Spartans
4.2
Montrose
3.8
East Fife
3.7
Inverness CT
3.5
Hamilton
3.4
Cove Rangers
3.3

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
Stenhousemuir
25.3
Forfar
24.1
Queen of Sth
23.8
East Fife
23.0
Alloa
22.6
Montrose
22.4
Kelty Hearts
22.3
Clyde
22.1
Inverness CT
21.7
Hamilton
21.0
Cove Rangers
20.9
Spartans
20.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
42.4%
Under 9.5
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
68.1%
Under 3.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
69.6%
Under 21.5
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

A
Alloa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L02L22D10W10W00D00D10W00DA·EAS28/02H·KEL07/03A·PET10/03A·MON14/03H·INV21/03H·PET28/03A·COV04/04A·HAM11/04H·EAS18/04A·STE25/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.330.730.200.530.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.710.380.910.180.540.54
vs Weaker (6)0.330.170.250.250.500.00
Clean sheet %77% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen of Sth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QO
Queen of Sth

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L01L01L11D21W10W00D00D00D01LA·MON21/02H·PET28/02H·STE07/03A·HAM14/03H·EAS21/03A·INV27/03A·KEL04/04H·COV11/04A·PET18/04H·MON25/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.600.530.600.530.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.560.590.540.620.570.57
vs Weaker (3)0.330.670.500.500.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alloa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of Sth over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of Sth over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of Sth over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards84.2%-------✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls82.7%-------✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners79.5%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.576.1%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.572.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
QOS (2)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
HAM (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
ALL (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Alloa and Queen of Sth have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
MON (1)
€0m
ALL (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
HAM (0)
€0m
QOS (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Alloa and Queen of Sth have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STE (1)
€0m
HAM (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
QOS (0)
€0m
ALL (0)
€0m
MON (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QOS (2)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
HAM (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
ALL (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Alloa and Queen of Sth have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 12. Games History

Head-to-head

Alloa vs Queen of Sth · H/A from ALL
DateH/AGameScore
14/02/26AQueen of Sth Vs ALL1-2
13/12/25HALL Vs Queen of Sth0-2
04/10/25AQueen of Sth Vs ALL1-0
15/03/25AQueen of Sth Vs ALL3-2
11/01/25HALL Vs Queen of Sth1-1
09/11/24AQueen of Sth Vs ALL1-1
03/08/24HALL Vs Queen of Sth0-0
23/03/24HALL Vs Queen of Sth0-2

A
Alloa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26AStenhousemuir Vs ALL1-0
18/04/26HALL Vs East Fife2-0
11/04/26AHamilton Vs ALL1-0
04/04/26ACove Rangers Vs ALL0-1
28/03/26HALL Vs Peterhead1-2
21/03/26HALL Vs Inverness CT1-1
14/03/26AMontrose Vs ALL5-4
10/03/26APeterhead Vs ALL3-1
07/03/26HALL Vs Kelty Hearts2-1
28/02/26AEast Fife Vs ALL0-2

QO
Queen of Sth

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26HQOS Vs Montrose2-2
18/04/26APeterhead Vs QOS1-1
11/04/26HQOS Vs Cove Rangers2-0
04/04/26AKelty Hearts Vs QOS1-1
27/03/26AInverness CT Vs QOS1-1
21/03/26HQOS Vs East Fife2-2
14/03/26AHamilton Vs QOS1-3
07/03/26HQOS Vs Stenhousemuir1-1
28/02/26HQOS Vs Peterhead0-2
21/02/26AMontrose Vs QOS3-2

📊 13. Overall Statistics

A
Alloa
Scotland: League One
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWL1.50
HomeWWDLW1.75
AwayLLWLL1.27
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%50%35%
AVG goals2.702.582.81
Over 1.5 %74%79%69%
Over 2.5 %50%54%46%
Over 3.5 %26%21%31%
Scored1.541.621.46
Conceded1.160.961.35
BTTS56%54%58%
Clean Sheet30%38%23%
Corners9.729.509.92
Cards4.344.334.35
QO
Queen of Sth
Scotland: League One
Recent: 2 Wins / 6 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWDD1.54
HomeLDDWD1.80
AwayLWDDD1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%52%32%
AVG goals2.843.042.64
Over 1.5 %88%88%88%
Over 2.5 %54%60%48%
Over 3.5 %32%40%24%
Scored1.581.801.36
Conceded1.261.241.28
BTTS60%60%60%
Clean Sheet24%24%24%
Corners8.568.568.56
Cards4.904.765.04

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Inverness CTInverness CT3674
58%
2.1
6024+36
2.3
72%
39%
25%
9.1
39%
3.5
47%
22.2
53%
0
0001.70.7
-
2StenhousemuirStenhousemuir3667
50%
1.9
5027+23
2.1
64%
33%
22%
8.6
39%
5.2
81%
27.0
81%
0
0001.40.8
-
3
H
Hamilton		3655
44%
1.5
5442+12
2.7
75%
58%
33%
9.7
44%
3.2
42%
20.4
39%
0
0001.51.2
-
4
QO
Queen of Sth		3654
39%
1.5
5847+11
2.9
92%
53%
33%
8.9
33%
5.2
75%
24.3
67%
0
0001.61.3
-
5
A
Alloa		3653
42%
1.5
5038+12
2.4
67%
44%
22%
9.4
42%
4.5
61%
23.4
64%
0
0001.41.1
-
6PeterheadPeterhead3643
33%
1.2
4864-16
3.1
92%
67%
42%
9.5
44%
5.0
78%
27.9
86%
0
0001.31.8
-
7MontroseMontrose3642
31%
1.2
4867-19
3.2
89%
61%
39%
8.6
31%
3.7
61%
23.7
69%
0
0001.31.9
-
8Cove RangersCove Rangers3638
25%
1.1
4144-3
2.4
69%
39%
22%
9.4
44%
3.5
47%
22.3
53%
0
0001.11.2
-
9East FifeEast Fife3636
25%
1.0
3461-27
2.6
78%
50%
22%
9.6
47%
3.4
50%
22.8
56%
0
0000.91.7
-
10Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts3629
17%
0.8
3362-29
2.6
86%
50%
22%
9.4
42%
4.7
75%
23.8
61%
1
1000.91.7
-
11Hamilton AcademicalHamilton Academical410
75%
2.5
106+4
4.0
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.51.5
-
12ClydeClyde45
25%
1.2
76+1
3.2
100%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.5
-
13SpartansSpartans21
0%
0.5
13-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.5
-
14ForfarForfar20
0%
0.0
25-3
3.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
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0%
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0%
0
0001.02.5
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Scotland: League One 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →

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