This opponent (Burgos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burgos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.07
1.14
0.57
0.71
1.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.90
1.17
0.50
0.75
1.50
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
29% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Almeria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.8%
Under 1.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.8%
@ 2.03+2.3%
Under 2.5
51.2%
@ 1.77-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.0%
Under 3.5
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.1%
No
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0 ✓
13.4%
1-0
12.9%
1-1
10.8%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
8.6%
0-0
8.2%
3-1
6.0%
4-0
4.1%
Almeria goals ↓
Burgos goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
4.1%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
1
13%
11%
3.4%
0.8%
0.1%
2
13%
9.4%
3.3%
0.8%
0.1%
3
8.6%
6.0%
2.1%
0.5%
0.1%
4
4.1%
2.9%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Almeria goals (down), columns = Burgos goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Valladolid
1.93
Almeria
1.93
Eibar
1.90
Las Palmas
1.67
Tenerife
1.64
Girona
1.62
Oviedo
1.62
Ponferradina
1.50
FC Cartagena
1.43
Zaragoza
1.33
Burgos
1.31
Leganes
1.29
Huesca
1.29
Ibiza
1.24
Mirandes
1.24
Lugo
1.19
Sporting Gijon
1.10
Malaga
1.07
Amorebieta
1.02
Real Sociedad II
0.95
Fuenlabrada
0.79
Alcorcon
0.69
Almeria is 0.62 points better than Burgos in terms of average points per game (1.93 vs 1.31).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Valladolid
1.69
Almeria
1.62
FC Cartagena
1.50
Eibar
1.45
Mirandes
1.38
Girona
1.36
Ponferradina
1.36
Las Palmas
1.36
Oviedo
1.36
Ibiza
1.26
Tenerife
1.26
Leganes
1.19
Huesca
1.17
Lugo
1.10
Amorebieta
1.05
Real Sociedad II
1.02
Sporting Gijon
1.02
Burgos
0.98
Fuenlabrada
0.93
Zaragoza
0.93
Alcorcon
0.88
Malaga
0.86
Almeria is 0.64 goals better than Burgos in terms of goals scored per game (1.62 vs 0.98).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Almeria
0.83
Tenerife
0.88
Oviedo
0.98
Burgos
0.98
Girona
1.00
Valladolid
1.02
Huesca
1.05
Eibar
1.07
Zaragoza
1.10
Las Palmas
1.12
Sporting Gijon
1.14
Leganes
1.21
Lugo
1.24
Ponferradina
1.31
Malaga
1.36
FC Cartagena
1.36
Ibiza
1.40
Real Sociedad II
1.45
Mirandes
1.48
Amorebieta
1.50
Fuenlabrada
1.55
Alcorcon
1.69
Almeria is 0.14 goals better than Burgos in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 0.98).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Almeria
For 4.6 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 13.2 · Total 24.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Burgos
For 3.4 · Against 4.9 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 15.7 · Total 27.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Almeria
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.9
8.8
5.5
4.9
6.0
27.9
27.7
28.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (33)
9.0
9.5
8.6
5.5
5.5
5.4
28.1
29.0
27.1
vs Weaker (17)
9.9
10.9
9.3
5.5
3.4
7.0
27.5
24.6
29.5
% over line
48%
54%
42%
74%
71%
77%
84%
88%
81%
% under line
52%
46%
58%
26%
29%
23%
16%
12%
19%
This opponent (Burgos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burgos
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (14)
7.6
7.4
7.7
3.6
3.9
3.3
25.8
27.4
24.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
6.7
7.0
6.2
3.1
3.5
2.5
23.5
25.7
20.2
vs Weaker (4)
9.8
10.0
9.7
4.8
6.0
4.3
31.5
38.0
29.3
% over line
21%
14%
29%
57%
57%
57%
64%
86%
43%
% under line
79%
86%
71%
43%
43%
43%
36%
14%
57%
This opponent (Almeria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Amorebieta
10.3
Ibiza
9.5
Almeria
9.3
Lugo
9.2
Real Sociedad II
9.1
Eibar
9.0
Fuenlabrada
9.0
Valladolid
8.9
Huesca
8.9
Tenerife
8.7
Ponferradina
8.7
Zaragoza
8.6
Girona
8.6
Malaga
8.5
Sporting Gijon
8.5
FC Cartagena
8.5
Oviedo
8.4
Mirandes
8.3
Alcorcon
8.2
Leganes
7.8
Las Palmas
7.8
Burgos
7.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Fuenlabrada
6.2
Girona
5.6
Tenerife
5.5
Almeria
5.5
FC Cartagena
5.5
Oviedo
5.3
Las Palmas
5.3
Malaga
5.2
Valladolid
5.2
Lugo
4.8
Zaragoza
4.8
Alcorcon
4.8
Ponferradina
4.6
Leganes
4.6
Mirandes
4.3
Sporting Gijon
4.3
Huesca
4.2
Real Sociedad II
3.7
Eibar
3.7
Amorebieta
3.6
Burgos
3.6
Ibiza
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Las Palmas
31.9
Fuenlabrada
31.4
FC Cartagena
31.4
Tenerife
30.7
Leganes
30.2
Malaga
29.1
Girona
28.9
Huesca
28.6
Alcorcon
28.0
Almeria
27.9
Ibiza
27.9
Zaragoza
27.4
Lugo
27.2
Valladolid
27.1
Mirandes
26.9
Oviedo
26.7
Ponferradina
26.5
Burgos
25.8
Sporting Gijon
25.7
Amorebieta
25.4
Eibar
24.2
Real Sociedad II
22.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
39.8%
Under 9.5
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
61.4%
Under 3.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
81.7%
Under 21.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Almeria
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.30
0.79
0.29
0.94
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.21
0.67
0.11
0.70
0.30
vs Weaker (11)
1.18
0.45
1.00
0.60
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Burgos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burgos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.43
0.86
0.29
0.29
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.30
0.83
0.17
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
64% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Almeria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Almeria over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Almeria over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Almeria over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Almeria
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
0.86
0.57
0.75
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.53
0.78
0.78
0.90
0.30
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.73
1.00
0.20
0.50
1.17
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Burgos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burgos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.36
0.64
0.29
0.29
0.43
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.60
0.33
0.33
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Almeria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Almeria over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Almeria over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Almeria over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Almeria · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Federico Bonini33%
Nicolás Melamed33%
Stefan Džodić33%
Andrés Fernández0%
Léo Baptistão0%
Álex Muñoz0%
Mikel Vesga0%
Miguel de la Fuente0%
Adrián Embarba0%
Jorge Pulido0%
Brian Cipenga0%
Daijiro Chirino0%
Marcos Luna0%
Quim Junyent0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Adrián Embarba33%
Nicolás Melamed33%
Stefan Džodić33%
Andrés Fernández0%
Léo Baptistão0%
Federico Bonini0%
Álex Muñoz0%
Mikel Vesga0%
Miguel de la Fuente0%
Jorge Pulido0%
Brian Cipenga0%
Daijiro Chirino0%
Marcos Luna0%
Quim Junyent0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Miguel de la Fuente33%
Nicolás Melamed33%
Andrés Fernández0%
Léo Baptistão0%
Federico Bonini0%
Álex Muñoz0%
Mikel Vesga0%
Adrián Embarba0%
Jorge Pulido0%
Brian Cipenga0%
Daijiro Chirino0%
Stefan Džodić0%
Marcos Luna0%
Quim Junyent0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Miguel de la Fuente33%
Stefan Džodić33%
Andrés Fernández0%
Léo Baptistão0%
Federico Bonini0%
Álex Muñoz0%
Mikel Vesga0%
Adrián Embarba0%
Jorge Pulido0%
Nicolás Melamed0%
Brian Cipenga0%
Daijiro Chirino0%
Marcos Luna0%
Quim Junyent0%
Burgos · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Álex Forés67%
Curro Sánchez33%
Javi Llabrés33%
David González33%
Víctor Mollejo0%
Pablo Galdames0%
Sergio González0%
Ander Cantero0%
José Gragera0%
Grego Sierra0%
Ignasi Vilarrasa0%
Alberto Dadie0%
Marcelo Expósito0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sergio González33%
José Gragera33%
Grego Sierra33%
Víctor Mollejo0%
Pablo Galdames0%
Ander Cantero0%
Curro Sánchez0%
Ignasi Vilarrasa0%
Álex Forés0%
Alberto Dadie0%
Javi Llabrés0%
David González0%
Marcelo Expósito0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Víctor Mollejo33%
Curro Sánchez33%
Pablo Galdames0%
Sergio González0%
Ander Cantero0%
José Gragera0%
Grego Sierra0%
Ignasi Vilarrasa0%
Álex Forés0%
Alberto Dadie0%
Javi Llabrés0%
David González0%
Marcelo Expósito0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Álex Forés33%
David González33%
Víctor Mollejo0%
Pablo Galdames0%
Sergio González0%
Ander Cantero0%
José Gragera0%
Grego Sierra0%
Curro Sánchez0%
Ignasi Vilarrasa0%
Alberto Dadie0%
Javi Llabrés0%
Marcelo Expósito0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (28)
€114m
ALM (26)
€54m
MAL (27)
€41m
OVI (23)
€30m
LEG (26)
€30m
LP (27)
€30m
SG (23)
€28m
VAL (29)
€26m
RSI (25)
€23m
BUR (22)
€17m
EIB (24)
€15m
TEN (28)
€12m
ZAR (20)
€9m
MIR (21)
€6m
HUE (21)
€5m
Almeria's squad is €37m more valuable than Burgos's (€54m vs €17m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (12)
€64m
ALM (11)
€38m
MAL (11)
€26m
RSI (10)
€15m
OVI (11)
€15m
SG (8)
€14m
LP (12)
€14m
LEG (11)
€14m
VAL (11)
€10m
BUR (7)
€8m
EIB (8)
€7m
TEN (13)
€5m
ZAR (8)
€4m
HUE (9)
€2m
MIR (6)
€2m
Almeria's attack is €30m more valuable than Burgos's (€38m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (7)
€28m
LEG (5)
€8m
MAL (5)
€6m
VAL (6)
€6m
OVI (4)
€6m
SG (5)
€5m
ALM (4)
€4m
TEN (5)
€4m
RSI (6)
€4m
BUR (6)
€4m
EIB (6)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
ZAR (4)
€2m
HUE (4)
€1m
MIR (4)
€1m
Almeria and Burgos have a similar midfield value (both €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (9)
€22m
LP (10)
€13m
ALM (11)
€11m
VAL (12)
€10m
OVI (8)
€10m
MAL (11)
€9m
SG (10)
€9m
LEG (10)
€8m
BUR (9)
€6m
EIB (10)
€5m
RSI (9)
€4m
MIR (11)
€4m
TEN (10)
€3m
ZAR (8)
€3m
HUE (8)
€2m
Almeria's defence is €6m more valuable than Burgos's (€11m vs €6m).
Spain: Segunda División 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →