Almeria is the clear favourite to win against Eldense, with a 71% probability of a home win and a model pick of Home win. The model's confidence stems from Almeria's dominance at home, scoring 3.5 goals on average and conceding just 1. This trend is likely to continue against Eldense, who have struggled away from home, scoring only 1 goal on average and conceding 1.92.
The expected total goals is 3.6, with the most likely total goals being 3. The most likely score is 2-0, with a probability of 9.3%. Almeria's home scoring and conceding form against a weaker opponent is impressive, with 3.5 goals scored and 1 goal conceded on average.
The model's selections include Over 1.5, Over 21.5 fouls, Over 3.5 cards, and Home win. Over 1.5 has an 88.2% probability, with an edge of 10%. Home win has a 71.5% probability, with no edge. The probabilities for a home win, draw, and away win are 71%, 17%, and 11% respectively.
Results analysis
Almeria’s win extends their recent run, finishing the match 3-0 to secure the home victory the model predicted. The pre-match favourite was Home win at 71 %, and the model’s call was correct. The model’s selections performed strongly: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.2 %, Home +2 handicap hit at 96.1 %, Home over 0.5 goals hit at 92.7 %, Away under 2.5 goals hit at 92.1 %, Over 2.5 cards hit at 89.5 %, Home or Draw hit at 88.7 %, and Home +1 handicap hit at 88.7 %. The only miss was Over 19.5 fouls at 90.7 %. The final score of 3-0 matched the model’s most likely 3-0 outcome and the 3-goal total.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Almeria win✓ Hit
71.5%
Avg Implied 65.7% · @ 1.42
Edge
+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.48
1xBet
1.45
Dafabet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.44
Draw✗ Miss
17.2%
Avg Implied 20.0% · @ 4.65
Edge
-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.89
Pinnacle
4.86
Dafabet
4.80
SBO
4.76
10Bet
4.75
Eldense win✗ Miss
11.3%
Avg Implied 14.3% · @ 6.51
Edge
-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
SBO
7.14
Pinnacle
6.89
1xBet
6.74
Dafabet
6.60
Marathonbet
6.55
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Almeria
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.57
2.47
1.53
1.20
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.54
1.71
2.09
1.73
1.08
1.69
vs Weaker (6)
3.00
1.00
3.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Eldense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Eldense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.53
1.07
1.67
1.07
1.40
vs Stronger (11)
1.00
1.73
1.29
1.43
0.50
2.25
vs Similar (18)
1.00
1.44
0.88
1.88
1.10
1.10
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Almeria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.2%
@ 1.18+9.1%
Under 1.5
11.8%
@ 4.47-9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Unibet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.80
BetVictor
4.60
Pinnacle
4.52
10Bet
4.50
888Sport
4.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
69.9%
@ 1.61+11.6%
Under 2.5
30.1%
@ 2.25-11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.67
Betano
1.65
SBO
1.65
Pinnacle
1.63
1xBet
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.36
1xBet
2.35
Betano
2.30
SBO
2.26
888Sport
2.25
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
48.7%
@ 2.54+11.8%
Under 3.5
51.3%
@ 1.48-11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.73
Unibet
2.63
Betano
2.60
Betfair
2.55
10Bet
2.55
Under
Betano
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.52
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.0%
@ 1.78+7.2%
No
41.0%
@ 1.92-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betfair
1.80
888Sport
1.80
William Hil
1.80
No
BetVictor
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.97
Betano
1.95
888Sport
1.91
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.3%@ 6.68+2.7%
2-1
9.2%@ 7.47+3.3%
3-0 ✓
8.1%@ 8.95+3.2%
3-1
8.0%@ 9.92+3.6%
1-1
7.7%@ 8.22+2.4%
1-0
6.4%@ 6.96+0.1%
4-0
5.3%@ 15.06+2.4%
4-1
5.3%@ 17.32+2.7%
Almeria goals ↓
Eldense goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.4%
2.0%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
1
6.4%
7.7%
3.5%
1.2%
0.3%
2
9.3%
9.2%
4.6%
1.5%
0.4%
3
8.1%
8.0%
4.0%
1.3%
0.3%
4
5.3%
5.3%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Almeria goals (down), columns = Eldense goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Girona
1.96
Almeria
1.72
Burgos
1.71
Mallorca
1.70
Las Palmas
1.68
Castellón
1.66
Eibar
1.60
Oviedo
1.58
Cordoba
1.45
Sporting Gijon
1.45
AD Ceuta FC
1.45
Albacete
1.40
FC Andorra
1.38
Tenerife
1.34
Sabadell
1.16
Granada CF
1.14
Celta de Vigo II
1.14
Eldense
1.13
Real Sociedad II
1.12
Leganes
1.10
Valladolid
1.10
Cadiz
1.02
Almeria is 0.59 points better than Eldense in terms of average points per game (1.72 vs 1.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Girona
1.87
Almeria
1.87
Castellón
1.66
Mallorca
1.62
Oviedo
1.51
FC Andorra
1.48
Sporting Gijon
1.43
Cordoba
1.36
Albacete
1.33
Las Palmas
1.32
Tenerife
1.28
Eibar
1.24
Real Sociedad II
1.24
AD Ceuta FC
1.21
Granada CF
1.19
Burgos
1.14
Sabadell
1.10
Celta de Vigo II
1.09
Eldense
1.08
Valladolid
1.05
Leganes
1.02
Cadiz
0.98
Almeria is 0.79 goals better than Eldense in terms of goals scored per game (1.87 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Burgos
0.79
Girona
0.92
Eibar
0.95
Las Palmas
0.95
Mallorca
1.06
Oviedo
1.14
Leganes
1.21
Castellón
1.25
FC Andorra
1.29
Sporting Gijon
1.29
Albacete
1.31
Granada CF
1.33
Tenerife
1.35
Valladolid
1.36
Cordoba
1.45
Cadiz
1.45
Real Sociedad II
1.45
Almeria
1.48
AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Sabadell
1.56
Celta de Vigo II
1.58
Eldense
1.59
Almeria is 0.11 goals better than Eldense in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Andorra
61%
Cordoba
58%
Las Palmas
56%
Castellón
55%
Almeria
52%
Leganes
51%
AD Ceuta FC
51%
Granada CF
50%
Valladolid
50%
Eibar
49%
Burgos
46%
Cadiz
46%
Sporting Gijon
46%
Real Sociedad II
44%
Albacete
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Almeria
For 4.1 · Against 5.7 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 11.4 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Eldense
For 5.7 · Against 3.2 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 11.0 · Total 24.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Almeria
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
10.1
8.7
5.5
5.5
5.4
26.7
26.8
26.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
9.2
9.4
8.9
6.1
6.0
6.1
27.0
27.4
26.6
vs Weaker (14)
10.0
12.0
8.0
4.0
4.2
3.9
25.8
24.8
26.7
% over line
50%
58%
42%
78%
88%
69%
88%
88%
88%
% under line
50%
42%
58%
22%
12%
31%
12%
12%
12%
This opponent (Eldense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Eldense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.1
9.6
4.3
4.4
4.2
24.8
24.7
24.9
vs Stronger (16)
9.6
8.6
10.6
4.7
4.3
5.1
24.7
24.1
25.3
vs Similar (32)
9.3
9.4
9.2
4.4
4.4
4.3
24.8
24.9
24.7
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
38%
30%
45%
64%
72%
56%
78%
87%
68%
% under line
62%
70%
55%
36%
28%
44%
22%
13%
32%
This opponent (Almeria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albacete
10.9
Cordoba
10.8
Mallorca
10.2
Castellón
10.0
Sporting Gijon
9.7
Cadiz
9.6
Leganes
9.5
Girona
9.4
Eibar
9.4
Almeria
9.4
Real Sociedad II
9.3
Granada CF
9.3
Eldense
9.2
Oviedo
9.2
Tenerife
9.1
FC Andorra
9.1
Valladolid
9.0
AD Ceuta FC
8.8
Sabadell
8.8
Burgos
8.5
Las Palmas
8.4
Celta de Vigo II
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Celta de Vigo II
7.0
Castellón
6.0
Real Sociedad II
5.9
Cordoba
5.7
Burgos
5.7
Almeria
5.6
Granada CF
5.5
FC Andorra
5.5
Valladolid
5.4
Leganes
5.3
AD Ceuta FC
5.2
Eibar
5.2
Sporting Gijon
5.2
Cadiz
5.1
Tenerife
4.7
Eldense
4.6
Sabadell
4.6
Las Palmas
4.6
Albacete
4.6
Girona
4.4
Mallorca
4.3
Oviedo
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Celta de Vigo II
35.0
Cordoba
29.4
Real Sociedad II
28.9
Valladolid
28.5
Castellón
28.1
Sabadell
27.8
FC Andorra
27.7
AD Ceuta FC
27.7
Granada CF
27.3
Tenerife
27.1
Las Palmas
27.0
Burgos
26.6
Almeria
26.6
Leganes
26.4
Cadiz
25.8
Eibar
25.7
Girona
25.1
Oviedo
25.1
Eldense
25.0
Mallorca
24.3
Sporting Gijon
22.2
Albacete
21.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
49.3%
@ 1.87-0.3%
Under 9.5
50.7%
@ 1.84+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.89
Unibet
1.88
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
76.8%
Under 3.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
81.6%
@ 1.28+13.3%
Under 21.5
18.4%
@ 2.76-13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.28
Under
1xBet
2.76
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Almeria or Draw✓ Hit
88.7%
Avg Implied 85.5% · @ 1.10
Edge
+3.2%
71%
17%
11%
covers Almeria + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.15
BetVictor
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Almeria or Eldense✓ Hit
82.8%
Avg Implied 80.8% · @ 1.16
Edge
+2.0%
71%
17%
11%
covers Almeria + Eldense
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
888Sport
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Draw or Eldense✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied 33.7% · @ 2.78
Edge
-5.2%
71%
17%
11%
covers Draw + Eldense
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.98
888Sport
2.88
William Hil
2.88
Betfair
2.80
10Bet
2.80
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Almeria over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
92.7%
@ 1.08+5.8%
Under
7.3%
@ 7.16-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.11
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Under
Bet365
8.00
888Sport
7.50
1xBet
7.40
Betfair
7.00
Betano
5.90
Almeria over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
73.6%
@ 1.46+10.1%
Under
26.4%
@ 2.55-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.47
BetVictor
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Marathonbet
1.46
Under
Pinnacle
2.64
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.61
1xBet
2.58
Almeria over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
48.6%
@ 2.49+11.2%
Under
51.4%
@ 1.49-11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.67
Unibet
2.55
Betano
2.50
Betfair
2.50
BetVictor
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.51
888Sport
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Almeria over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
26.8%
@ 4.77+7.4%
Under
73.2%
@ 1.15-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
888Sport
4.80
Marathonbet
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Under
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.17
888Sport
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Eldense over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
62.9%
@ 1.60+5.0%
Under
37.1%
@ 2.20-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.65
Unibet
1.65
10Bet
1.62
Betano
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.28
Betfair
2.25
Betano
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
888Sport
2.25
Eldense over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
26.1%
@ 4.00+2.8%
Under
73.9%
@ 1.21-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Eldense over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.9%
@ 11.32-0.5%
Under
92.1%
@ 1.04+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
888Sport
12.00
Marathonbet
11.25
1xBet
11.20
Betfair
10.00
Under
Betano
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Eldense over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 51.00-98.2%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Almeria, so a minus line means Almeria give that many goals of a start and Eldense receive them. At -1, Almeria must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Almeria win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Almeria)Actual: Almeria
Almeria -2
30.5%
@ 3.69+6.2%
Draw -2
20.4%
@ 4.15-1.2%
Eldense +2
49.0%
@ 1.66-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Unibet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.68
Bet365
3.60
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
3.90
Away
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
Betfair
1.62
Unibet
1.62
Handicap -1 (Almeria)Actual: Almeria
Almeria -1
51.0%
@ 2.08+8.1%
Draw -1
20.5%
@ 3.58-4.4%
Eldense +1
28.5%
@ 2.76-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.16
Unibet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Bet365
2.05
Betfair
2.00
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.56
10Bet
3.55
Unibet
3.30
Away
10Bet
2.80
Betfair
2.80
Marathonbet
2.76
Bet365
2.75
Unibet
2.70
Handicap +1 (Almeria)Actual: Almeria
Almeria +1
88.7%
@ 1.08+3.8%
Draw +1
7.3%
@ 9.25-2.6%
Eldense -1
3.9%
@ 18.00-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.07
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
8.50
Away
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
17.00
Handicap +2 (Almeria)Actual: Almeria
Almeria +2
96.1%
@ 1.01+2.2%
Draw +2
2.9%
@ 22.00-1.4%
Eldense -2
1.0%
@ 51.00-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Draw
Bet365
23.00
Betfair
21.00
Away
Betfair
61.00
Bet365
41.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Almeria
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
1.07
0.47
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.62
0.67
0.73
0.55
0.54
0.77
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.33
2.00
0.25
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Eldense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Eldense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.57
0.27
0.60
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (11)
0.18
0.55
0.29
0.57
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (18)
0.33
0.56
0.25
0.62
0.40
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Almeria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Almeria over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Almeria over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Almeria over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eldense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eldense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eldense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Almeria
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.97
1.40
1.07
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.92
1.04
1.36
1.18
0.54
0.92
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.67
1.50
0.75
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Eldense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Eldense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.97
0.80
1.07
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
1.18
1.00
0.86
0.50
1.75
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.89
0.62
1.25
0.70
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Almeria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Almeria over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Almeria over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Almeria over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eldense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eldense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eldense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
96.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
92.7%
1.08
Betano
1.11
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.05
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.1%
1.04
Betano
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
88.7%
1.10
Betano
1.15
BetVictor
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.10
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
88.7%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.07
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
88.2%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Unibet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
+9.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
82.8%
1.16
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
888Sport
1.18
William Hil
1.18
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
81.6%
1.28
1xBet
1.28
-
-
-
-
+13.3%
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.9%
1.28
Betano
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
-
+3.1%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
73.9%
1.21
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
888Sport
1.22
-2.8%
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
73.6%
1.46
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.47
BetVictor
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Marathonbet
1.46
+10.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
73.2%
1.15
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.17
888Sport
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
-7.4%
✓ Hit
Home win
71.5%
1.42
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.48
1xBet
1.45
Dafabet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.44
+5.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Almeria
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Federico Bonini33%
Nicolás Melamed33%
Stefan Džodić33%
Andrés Fernández0%
Léo Baptistão0%
Álex Muñoz0%
Mikel Vesga0%
Miguel de la Fuente0%
Adrián Embarba0%
Jorge Pulido0%
Brian Cipenga0%
Daijiro Chirino0%
Marcos Luna0%
Quim Junyent0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Adrián Embarba33%
Nicolás Melamed33%
Stefan Džodić33%
Andrés Fernández0%
Léo Baptistão0%
Federico Bonini0%
Álex Muñoz0%
Mikel Vesga0%
Miguel de la Fuente0%
Jorge Pulido0%
Brian Cipenga0%
Daijiro Chirino0%
Marcos Luna0%
Quim Junyent0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Miguel de la Fuente33%
Nicolás Melamed33%
Andrés Fernández0%
Léo Baptistão0%
Federico Bonini0%
Álex Muñoz0%
Mikel Vesga0%
Adrián Embarba0%
Jorge Pulido0%
Brian Cipenga0%
Daijiro Chirino0%
Stefan Džodić0%
Marcos Luna0%
Quim Junyent0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Miguel de la Fuente33%
Stefan Džodić33%
Andrés Fernández0%
Léo Baptistão0%
Federico Bonini0%
Álex Muñoz0%
Mikel Vesga0%
Adrián Embarba0%
Jorge Pulido0%
Nicolás Melamed0%
Brian Cipenga0%
Daijiro Chirino0%
Marcos Luna0%
Quim Junyent0%
Eldense
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fidel0%
Jordi Martín0%
Ramon Vila0%
Jorge Rastrojo0%
Jesús Clemente0%
Justin Smith0%
Floris Smand0%
Guillermo Macho0%
David Ruiz Montero0%
Mariano Carmona0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jesús Clemente33%
Guillermo Macho33%
David Ruiz Montero33%
Fidel0%
Jordi Martín0%
Ramon Vila0%
Jorge Rastrojo0%
Justin Smith0%
Floris Smand0%
Mariano Carmona0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Fidel0%
Jordi Martín0%
Ramon Vila0%
Jorge Rastrojo0%
Jesús Clemente0%
Justin Smith0%
Floris Smand0%
Guillermo Macho0%
David Ruiz Montero0%
Mariano Carmona0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fidel33%
David Ruiz Montero33%
Jordi Martín0%
Ramon Vila0%
Jorge Rastrojo0%
Jesús Clemente0%
Justin Smith0%
Floris Smand0%
Guillermo Macho0%
Mariano Carmona0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (28)
€114m
ALM (26)
€54m
MAL (26)
€48m
OVI (23)
€30m
LEG (26)
€30m
LP (27)
€30m
SG (23)
€28m
CAD (29)
€27m
VAL (29)
€26m
RSI (25)
€23m
CAS (28)
€21m
ALB (27)
€18m
BUR (22)
€17m
GC (18)
€17m
COR (26)
€16m
EIB (24)
€15m
FA (26)
€15m
TEN (28)
€12m
ACF (22)
€10m
SAB (28)
€8m
CDV (22)
€8m
ELD (20)
€7m
Almeria's squad is €47m more valuable than Eldense's (€54m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (12)
€64m
ALM (11)
€38m
MAL (11)
€23m
RSI (10)
€15m
OVI (11)
€15m
SG (8)
€14m
LP (12)
€14m
LEG (11)
€14m
CAD (12)
€11m
CAS (10)
€11m
VAL (11)
€10m
ALB (10)
€8m
BUR (7)
€8m
EIB (8)
€7m
GC (5)
€6m
FA (10)
€6m
ACF (10)
€5m
TEN (13)
€5m
COR (9)
€4m
CDV (9)
€4m
SAB (11)
€3m
ELD (8)
€3m
Almeria's attack is €35m more valuable than Eldense's (€38m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (7)
€28m
MAL (5)
€9m
LEG (5)
€8m
VAL (6)
€6m
OVI (4)
€6m
SG (5)
€5m
ALM (4)
€4m
COR (5)
€4m
ALB (7)
€4m
TEN (5)
€4m
RSI (6)
€4m
BUR (6)
€4m
CAD (5)
€3m
EIB (6)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
CAS (6)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
FA (5)
€3m
SAB (6)
€2m
ACF (4)
€1m
ELD (3)
€1m
CDV (3)
€1m
Almeria's midfield is €3m more valuable than Eldense's (€4m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (9)
€22m
MAL (10)
€16m
LP (10)
€13m
CAD (12)
€12m
ALM (11)
€11m
VAL (12)
€10m
OVI (8)
€10m
SG (10)
€9m
GC (10)
€9m
LEG (10)
€8m
CAS (12)
€8m
COR (12)
€7m
FA (11)
€7m
BUR (9)
€6m
ALB (10)
€5m
EIB (10)
€5m
RSI (9)
€4m
TEN (10)
€3m
SAB (11)
€3m
ELD (9)
€3m
ACF (8)
€3m
CDV (10)
€2m
Almeria's defence is €8m more valuable than Eldense's (€11m vs €3m).
Spain: Segunda División 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Granada CF
Castellón
Leganes
Sporting Gijon
Mallorca
Tenerife
Las Palmas
Eibar
Sabadell
Girona
Celta de Vigo II
Burgos
Real Sociedad II
Oviedo
FC Andorra
Cadiz
Cordoba
Valladolid
Albacete
AD Ceuta FC