PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Alpendorada vs Casa Pia Result & Analysis

Date: 22/11/2025
Time: 14:00
Final 0-3
Alpendorada
Alpendorada
Vs
40%
24%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
Portugal: Taça de Portugal
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Player market rates14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Alpendorada win✗ Miss
40.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Casa Pia win✓ Hit
35.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AlpendoradaAlpendorada

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-730W11D71W31WH·SER22/09H·CIN20/10H·EST21/09H·EST18/10
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
3.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game3.500.753.500.75--
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)2.001.002.001.00--
vs Weaker (2)5.000.505.000.50--
Clean sheet %25% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Casa Pia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Casa PiaCasa Pia

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-504L02L20W11D12L22D30W04L35L22DA·FC 24/08H·NAC30/08A·ARO14/09H·FAM21/09A·MOR27/09H·EST03/10A·ANÇ19/10A·SC 26/10H·EST01/11A·BEN09/11← Primeira LigaTaça de Portugal →
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.701.291.791.191.62
vs Stronger (11)0.912.001.171.500.602.60
vs Similar (18)1.331.501.382.001.301.10
vs Weaker (1)3.002.00--3.002.00
Clean sheet %23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Alpendorada) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%4%08%119%221%319%413%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.8%
Under 1.5
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.7%
Under 2.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.3%
Under 3.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
69.7%
No
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
7.8%
2-2
7.1%
3-1
5.1%
2-0
4.8%
1-3
4.4%
1-0
4.4%
Alpendorada goals ↓
Casa Pia goals →
01234
03.8%4.0%4.2%2.4%1.0%
14.4%10.0%7.8%4.4%1.9%
24.8%8.3%7.1%4.1%1.7%
33.0%5.1%4.3%2.5%1.1%
41.4%2.3%2.0%1.1%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alpendorada goals (down), columns = Casa Pia goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Benfica
2.71
Sporting CP
2.43
Rebordosa
2.40
Anadia
2.33
Santa Clara
2.33
Alverca
2.33
Amarante
2.25
Oliveira Hospital
2.25
SC Braga
2.25
GIL Vicente
2.25
São João Ver
2.17
Tirsense
2.14
Leixoes
2.00
CF Os Belenenses
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
Penafiel
2.00
Torreense
2.00
Maria da Fonte
2.00
Moncarapachense
2.00
Atlético CP
2.00
União Santarém
2.00
Varzim
2.00
Alpendorada
2.00
Operário
2.00
Guimaraes
2.00
SC Covilha
2.00
Casa Pia
2.00
Moreirense
2.00
Chaves
2.00
União de Leiria
2.00
Farense
2.00
Cinfães
1.75
Brito
1.75
Lusitânia
1.75
Vila Real
1.75
O Elvas
1.60
FC Porto
1.50
Vilaverdense
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Machico
1.50
Vianense
1.50
FC Serpa
1.50
Sintrense
1.50
Ferreira Zêzere
1.50
Louletano
1.50
Lagoa
1.50
Os Limianos
1.50
Paredes
1.50
Amora
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Mafra
1.50
Famalicao
1.50
Arouca
1.50
Academica
1.50
Portimonense
1.50
AVS
1.50
Sanjoanense
1.33
Caldas
1.33
Rio Ave
1.33
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
Atlético Malveira
1.02
Vila Meã
1.02
Portalegrense
1.02
Florgrade
1.02
Correlhã
1.02
Vitória de Sernache
1.02
Nazarenos
1.02
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1.02
Valenciano
1.02
Castro Daire
1.02
Rebordelo
1.02
Espinho
1.02
Uniao Nogueirense
1.02
Naval 1893
1.02
Portimonense B
1.02
AD Fornos Algodres
1.02
Resende
1.02
CD Olivais e Moscavide
1.02
Silves
1.02
Vidago
1.02
Vila Caíz
1.02
Charneca Caparica
1.02
Oriental Lisboa
1.02
Angrense
1.02
Ançã
1.02
Sourense
1.02
Celoricense
1.02
AD Portomosense
1.02
Alcochetense
1.02
Fayal
1.02
Gouveia
1.02
Samora Correir
1.02
Estrela Calheta
1.02
Ribeira Brava
1.02
Aparecida GO
1.02
Mirandela
1.02
SC Celoricense
1.02
Almodôvar
1.02
Mosteirense
1.02
Águias do Moradal
1.02
Urzelinense
1.02
Celeirós
1.02
Quarteirense
1.02
AR São Martinho
1.02
Carregal
1.02
Juventude Évora
1.02
Pontassolense
1.02
Fazendense
1.02
AD Marco 09
1.00
Fátima
1.00
Marinhense
1.00
Lajense
1.00
Leça
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Beira-Mar
1.00
Estoril
1.00
Academico Viseu
1.00
Estrela
0.50
Trofense
0.00
Vizela
0.00
Olímpico do Montijo
0.00
Académico do Fundão
0.00
Sacavenense
0.00
Eléctrico
0.00
Felgueiras 1932
0.00
Maritimo
0.00
Oliveirense
0.00
União Lamas
0.00
Camacha
0.00
Viana Alentejo
0.00
Fafe
0.00
Monção
0.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.00
Castrense
0.00
Bragança
0.00
Portel
0.00
Vinhais
0.00
Comércio Indústria
0.00
Peniche
0.00
Nacional
0.00
Salgueiros
0.00
UD da Serra
0.00
Feirense
0.00
Tondela
0.00
Valpaços
0.00
Rabo Peixe
0.00
Alpendorada and Casa Pia are level in average points per game (both 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Benfica
3.29
Amarante
3.00
Vizela
3.00
Penafiel
3.00
Comércio Indústria
3.00
SC Covilha
3.00
Casa Pia
3.00
Arouca
3.00
Valpaços
3.00
Anadia
2.67
Alverca
2.67
Vilaverdense
2.50
FC Serpa
2.50
Os Limianos
2.50
Sanjoanense
2.33
Moncarapachense
2.33
Farense
2.33
Cinfães
2.25
Sporting CP
2.14
FC Porto
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
Rebordosa
2.00
Oliveira Hospital
2.00
Louletano
2.00
Atlético CP
2.00
São João Ver
2.00
Leça
2.00
Paredes
2.00
Castrense
2.00
Alpendorada
2.00
Beira-Mar
2.00
Guimaraes
2.00
Portimonense
2.00
AVS
2.00
CF Os Belenenses
1.67
União Santarém
1.67
Varzim
1.67
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Torreense
1.50
Machico
1.50
Vianense
1.50
Ferreira Zêzere
1.50
Lusitânia
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
SC Braga
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Rio Ave
1.50
Moreirense
1.33
Chaves
1.33
União de Leiria
1.33
Atlético Malveira
1.27
Vila Meã
1.27
Portalegrense
1.27
Florgrade
1.27
Correlhã
1.27
Vitória de Sernache
1.27
Nazarenos
1.27
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1.27
Valenciano
1.27
Castro Daire
1.27
Rebordelo
1.27
Espinho
1.27
Uniao Nogueirense
1.27
Naval 1893
1.27
Portimonense B
1.27
AD Fornos Algodres
1.27
Resende
1.27
CD Olivais e Moscavide
1.27
Silves
1.27
Vidago
1.27
Vila Caíz
1.27
Charneca Caparica
1.27
Oriental Lisboa
1.27
Angrense
1.27
Ançã
1.27
Sourense
1.27
Celoricense
1.27
AD Portomosense
1.27
Alcochetense
1.27
Fayal
1.27
Gouveia
1.27
Samora Correir
1.27
Estrela Calheta
1.27
Ribeira Brava
1.27
Aparecida GO
1.27
Mirandela
1.27
SC Celoricense
1.27
Almodôvar
1.27
Mosteirense
1.27
Águias do Moradal
1.27
Urzelinense
1.27
Celeirós
1.27
Quarteirense
1.27
AR São Martinho
1.27
Carregal
1.27
Juventude Évora
1.27
Pontassolense
1.27
Fazendense
1.27
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
GIL Vicente
1.25
O Elvas
1.20
Tirsense
1.14
Leixoes
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
Maria da Fonte
1.00
Olímpico do Montijo
1.00
Sintrense
1.00
Maritimo
1.00
Oliveirense
1.00
União Lamas
1.00
Lagoa
1.00
Lajense
1.00
Viana Alentejo
1.00
Fafe
1.00
Monção
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Bragança
1.00
Operário
1.00
Vinhais
1.00
Santa Clara
1.00
Nacional
1.00
Salgueiros
1.00
Mafra
1.00
Academico Viseu
1.00
Famalicao
1.00
Tondela
1.00
Academica
1.00
Brito
0.75
Vila Real
0.75
Caldas
0.67
Amora
0.50
Estrela
0.50
Trofense
0.00
Fátima
0.00
Académico do Fundão
0.00
Marinhense
0.00
Sacavenense
0.00
Eléctrico
0.00
Felgueiras 1932
0.00
Camacha
0.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.00
Portel
0.00
Peniche
0.00
Estoril
0.00
UD da Serra
0.00
Feirense
0.00
Rabo Peixe
0.00
Alpendorada is 1.00 goals worse than Casa Pia in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 3.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Fátima
0.00
Marinhense
0.00
Operário
0.00
Estoril
0.00
GIL Vicente
0.25
Benfica
0.29
Santa Clara
0.33
FC Serpa
0.50
Atlético CP
0.50
Brito
0.50
Alpendorada
0.50
Vila Real
0.50
Famalicao
0.50
Academica
0.50
Sporting CP
0.57
Varzim
0.67
Caldas
0.67
SC Braga
0.75
São João Ver
0.83
FC Porto
1.00
Leixoes
1.00
CF Os Belenenses
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
Torreense
1.00
Machico
1.00
Anadia
1.00
Rebordosa
1.00
Ferreira Zêzere
1.00
Louletano
1.00
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Lagoa
1.00
União Santarém
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Portel
1.00
Guimaraes
1.00
Casa Pia
1.00
UD da Serra
1.00
Mafra
1.00
Academico Viseu
1.00
Feirense
1.00
Arouca
1.00
Moreirense
1.00
Chaves
1.00
União de Leiria
1.00
O Elvas
1.20
Oliveira Hospital
1.25
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
Sanjoanense
1.33
Moncarapachense
1.33
Alverca
1.33
Tirsense
1.43
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Penafiel
1.50
Lusitânia
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Rio Ave
1.50
Portimonense
1.50
AVS
1.50
SC Covilha
1.67
Cinfães
1.75
Atlético Malveira
1.79
Vila Meã
1.79
Portalegrense
1.79
Florgrade
1.79
Correlhã
1.79
Vitória de Sernache
1.79
Nazarenos
1.79
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1.79
Valenciano
1.79
Castro Daire
1.79
Rebordelo
1.79
Espinho
1.79
Uniao Nogueirense
1.79
Naval 1893
1.79
Portimonense B
1.79
AD Fornos Algodres
1.79
Resende
1.79
CD Olivais e Moscavide
1.79
Silves
1.79
Vidago
1.79
Vila Caíz
1.79
Charneca Caparica
1.79
Oriental Lisboa
1.79
Angrense
1.79
Ançã
1.79
Sourense
1.79
Celoricense
1.79
AD Portomosense
1.79
Alcochetense
1.79
Fayal
1.79
Gouveia
1.79
Samora Correir
1.79
Estrela Calheta
1.79
Ribeira Brava
1.79
Aparecida GO
1.79
Mirandela
1.79
SC Celoricense
1.79
Almodôvar
1.79
Mosteirense
1.79
Águias do Moradal
1.79
Urzelinense
1.79
Celeirós
1.79
Quarteirense
1.79
AR São Martinho
1.79
Carregal
1.79
Juventude Évora
1.79
Pontassolense
1.79
Fazendense
1.79
Amarante
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
Maria da Fonte
2.00
Vianense
2.00
Olímpico do Montijo
2.00
Académico do Fundão
2.00
Sintrense
2.00
Sacavenense
2.00
Eléctrico
2.00
Maritimo
2.00
Oliveirense
2.00
União Lamas
2.00
Leça
2.00
Camacha
2.00
Viana Alentejo
2.00
Monção
2.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
2.00
Beira-Mar
2.00
Bragança
2.00
Vinhais
2.00
Peniche
2.00
Nacional
2.00
Salgueiros
2.00
Tondela
2.00
Farense
2.00
Vilaverdense
2.50
Os Limianos
2.50
Amora
2.50
Lajense
2.67
Trofense
3.00
Paredes
3.00
Rabo Peixe
3.00
Vizela
4.00
Fafe
4.00
Castrense
4.00
Comércio Indústria
4.00
Estrela
4.00
Valpaços
5.00
Alpendorada is 0.50 goals better than Casa Pia in terms of goals conceded per game (0.50 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Sporting CP
59%
Rio Ave
42%
Benfica
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

AlpendoradaAlpendorada

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Casa PiaCasa Pia

For 4.1 · Against 4.6 · Total 8.7

🚩 Corners

140265224678653672327318761314813594A·BENH·ESTA·SC H·ESTA·MORH·FAMA·AROH·NACA·FC A·AVS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 2.9 · Total 6.0

🟨 Cards

1002323313355127223135455461039549A·BENH·ESTA·SC H·ESTA·MORH·FAMA·AROH·NACA·FC A·AVS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.3 · Against 16.2 · Total 31.5

⚠️ Fouls

410882021161614121513182121181322811202016413226283939351940A·BENH·ESTA·SC H·ESTA·MORH·FAMA·AROH·NACA·FC A·AVS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

AlpendoradaAlpendorada

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (4)---0.00.0----
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (2)---0.00.0----
vs Weaker (2)---0.00.0----
% over line---0%0%----
% under line---100%100%----
This opponent (Casa Pia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Casa PiaCasa Pia

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.29.09.45.14.55.627.827.727.8
vs Stronger (18)10.410.210.54.63.85.224.625.523.9
vs Similar (30)8.78.58.95.45.15.830.329.830.8
vs Weaker (2)4.54.05.04.53.06.022.518.027.0
% over line33%32%33%70%67%73%80%82%79%
% under line67%68%67%30%33%27%20%18%21%
This opponent (Alpendorada) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Portimonense
12.2
Penafiel
11.6
Oliveirense
11.5
União de Leiria
10.8
Vilaverdense
10.8
Torreense
10.8
Farense
10.7
Vizela
10.6
SC Covilha
10.6
Trofense
10.6
Chaves
10.5
Famalicao
10.4
Nacional
10.4
Rio Ave
10.2
Arouca
10.1
Academico Viseu
10.1
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.0
Guimaraes
9.9
Feirense
9.7
Benfica
9.6
Estrela
9.6
Leixoes
9.5
Felgueiras 1932
9.5
Sporting CP
9.5
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Casa Pia
9.3
Tondela
9.2
Maritimo
9.1
FC Porto
9.1
SC Braga
9.0
Estoril
8.9
AVS
8.7
Pacos Ferreira
8.7
GIL Vicente
8.6
Mafra
8.5
Moreirense
8.3
Santa Clara
8.2
Alverca
8.1

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Trofense
7.1
Santa Clara
6.4
Felgueiras 1932
6.4
Pacos Ferreira
6.2
FC Porto
6.0
Sporting CP
5.8
Oliveirense
5.7
Leixoes
5.7
Famalicao
5.7
Casa Pia
5.7
União de Leiria
5.7
Vizela
5.6
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.6
Chaves
5.6
Farense
5.6
Portimonense
5.5
Torreense
5.5
Guimaraes
5.5
Maritimo
5.5
Arouca
5.5
SC Covilha
5.4
AVS
5.4
Estrela
5.3
Feirense
5.2
Moreirense
5.2
Benfica
5.2
Penafiel
5.1
Nacional
5.1
Rio Ave
5.0
Tondela
5.0
Academico Viseu
4.9
GIL Vicente
4.9
Vilaverdense
4.8
Alverca
4.8
SC Braga
4.6
CF Os Belenenses
4.5
Estoril
4.5
Mafra
3.6

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Trofense
32.3
Famalicao
31.2
Estrela
30.7
Santa Clara
29.9
Moreirense
29.7
Vilaverdense
28.5
Estoril
28.4
Farense
28.2
SC Covilha
28.2
Guimaraes
28.2
Rio Ave
28.2
GIL Vicente
27.7
Casa Pia
27.7
AVS
27.6
Arouca
27.6
Lusitânia Lourosa
27.5
Nacional
27.4
Sporting CP
26.5
FC Porto
26.4
SC Braga
25.5
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Benfica
24.5
Tondela
20.2
Leixoes
18.2
Pacos Ferreira
18.0
Portimonense
17.3
Oliveirense
16.6
Academico Viseu
16.4
União de Leiria
16.4
Vizela
15.9
Alverca
15.5
Feirense
15.4
Maritimo
15.0
Mafra
14.9
Chaves
14.3
Penafiel
13.4
Felgueiras 1932
13.0
Torreense
10.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
44.3%
Under 9.5
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
63.3%
Under 3.5
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
69.9%
Under 21.5
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Alpendorada or Draw✗ Miss
64.3%
Avg Implied -
40%
24%
36%
covers Alpendorada + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Alpendorada or Casa Pia✓ Hit
76.1%
Avg Implied -
40%
24%
36%
covers Alpendorada + Casa Pia
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Casa Pia✓ Hit
59.6%
Avg Implied -
40%
24%
36%
covers Draw + Casa Pia
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Alpendorada over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
84.0%
Under
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alpendorada over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
54.6%
Under
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alpendorada over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
27.7%
Under
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alpendorada over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Casa Pia over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.0%
Under
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Casa Pia over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
51.1%
Under
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Casa Pia over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
24.6%
Under
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Casa Pia over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.5%
Under
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Alpendorada, so a minus line means Alpendorada give that many goals of a start and Casa Pia receive them. At -1, Alpendorada must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Alpendorada win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Alpendorada)Actual: Casa Pia
Alpendorada -2
9.7%
Draw -2
12.4%
Casa Pia +2
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Alpendorada)Actual: Casa Pia
Alpendorada -1
22.1%
Draw -1
18.3%
Casa Pia +1
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Alpendorada)Actual: Casa Pia
Alpendorada +1
64.3%
Draw +1
17.1%
Casa Pia -1
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Alpendorada)Actual: Casa Pia
Alpendorada +2
81.4%
Draw +2
10.8%
Casa Pia -2
7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AlpendoradaAlpendorada

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W10W20W11DH·SER22/09H·CIN20/10H·EST21/09H·EST18/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.500.251.500.25--
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)1.000.501.000.50--
vs Weaker (2)2.000.002.000.00--
Clean sheet %75% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Casa Pia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Casa PiaCasa Pia

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L02L10W00D11D21W20W02L12L01LA·FC 24/08H·NAC30/08A·ARO14/09H·FAM21/09A·MOR27/09H·EST03/10A·ANÇ19/10A·SC 26/10H·EST01/11A·BEN09/11← Primeira LigaTaça de Portugal →
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.970.711.070.500.88
vs Stronger (11)0.271.180.501.000.001.40
vs Similar (18)0.720.830.881.120.600.60
vs Weaker (1)2.001.00--2.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Alpendorada) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alpendorada over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alpendorada over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alpendorada over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Casa Pia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Casa Pia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Casa Pia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AlpendoradaAlpendorada

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W01L51W20WH·SER22/09H·CIN20/10H·EST21/09H·EST18/10
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.000.502.000.50--
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)1.000.501.000.50--
vs Weaker (2)3.000.503.000.50--
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Casa Pia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Casa PiaCasa Pia

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D10W11D01L01L10W02L23L21WA·FC 24/08H·NAC30/08A·ARO14/09H·FAM21/09A·MOR27/09H·EST03/10A·ANÇ19/10A·SC 26/10H·EST01/11A·BEN09/11← Primeira LigaTaça de Portugal →
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.730.570.710.690.75
vs Stronger (11)0.640.820.670.500.601.20
vs Similar (18)0.610.670.500.880.700.50
vs Weaker (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Alpendorada) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Alpendorada over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alpendorada over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alpendorada over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Casa Pia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Casa Pia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Casa Pia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 7.597.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 6.593.1%-------✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals90.5%-------✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals88.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.587.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.585.2%-------✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals84.0%-------✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls82.9%--------
Away over 0.5 goals82.0%-------✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap81.4%-------✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards80.9%--------
Under 11.5 corners78.0%--------
Away +2 handicap77.9%-------✓ Hit
Home or Away76.1%-------✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals75.4%-------✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards72.8%--------
Home under 2.5 goals72.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.571.7%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Casa Pia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Duplexe Tchamba20%
Gaizka Larrazabal17%
Kaique Rocha17%
Cassiano15%
Renato Nhaga11%
Oluwakorede Osundina11%
Kelian Nsona10%
Jérémy Livolant9%
Rafael Brito8%
Claudio Mendes8%
Lawrence Ofori7%
David Sousa7%
João Marques7%
José Fonte6%
Iyad Mohamed4%
João Goulart4%
Abdu Conté0%
Daniel Azevedo0%
Ricardo Batista0%
André Geraldes0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Patrick Sequeira0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Miguel Sousa0%
Fahem Benaissa-Yahia0%
Tiago Morais0%
Max Svensson0%
Xander Severina0%
Pedro Rosas0%
Dailon Rocha Livramento0%
Domingos Jose Gabriel Bandeira0%
Kevin Prieto0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
David Sousa46%
Domingos Jose Gabriel Bandeira43%
Duplexe Tchamba40%
Daniel Azevedo33%
Pedro Rosas30%
André Geraldes29%
Yassin Oukili25%
Miguel Sousa25%
Renato Nhaga22%
Iyad Mohamed21%
Rafael Brito20%
João Marques20%
Xander Severina20%
João Goulart19%
Sebastián Pérez17%
Gaizka Larrazabal17%
José Fonte17%
Max Svensson17%
Cassiano15%
Patrick Sequeira13%
Jérémy Livolant11%
Tiago Morais11%
Fahem Benaissa-Yahia10%
Claudio Mendes8%
Dailon Rocha Livramento8%
Kevin Prieto8%
Lawrence Ofori7%
Oluwakorede Osundina5%
Abdu Conté4%
Kaique Rocha0%
Ricardo Batista0%
Kelian Nsona0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jérémy Livolant23%
Miguel Sousa17%
Gaizka Larrazabal11%
Kelian Nsona10%
Abdu Conté9%
Kevin Prieto8%
João Marques7%
Oluwakorede Osundina5%
Rafael Brito4%
Dailon Rocha Livramento4%
José Fonte0%
Kaique Rocha0%
Cassiano0%
Duplexe Tchamba0%
Lawrence Ofori0%
Daniel Azevedo0%
Ricardo Batista0%
André Geraldes0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Patrick Sequeira0%
João Goulart0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Claudio Mendes0%
Iyad Mohamed0%
David Sousa0%
Fahem Benaissa-Yahia0%
Tiago Morais0%
Max Svensson0%
Xander Severina0%
Pedro Rosas0%
Domingos Jose Gabriel Bandeira0%
Renato Nhaga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Max Svensson17%
Dailon Rocha Livramento12%
Gaizka Larrazabal11%
Cassiano9%
Jérémy Livolant6%
Abdu Conté0%
José Fonte0%
Kaique Rocha0%
Duplexe Tchamba0%
Lawrence Ofori0%
Daniel Azevedo0%
Ricardo Batista0%
André Geraldes0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Rafael Brito0%
Patrick Sequeira0%
João Goulart0%
Kelian Nsona0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Claudio Mendes0%
Miguel Sousa0%
Iyad Mohamed0%
David Sousa0%
Fahem Benaissa-Yahia0%
Tiago Morais0%
João Marques0%
Xander Severina0%
Pedro Rosas0%
Oluwakorede Osundina0%
Domingos Jose Gabriel Bandeira0%
Kevin Prieto0%
Renato Nhaga0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
FAR (24)
€8m
AVS (20)
€7m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
LL (19)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
ACA (11)
€2m
PF (13)
€2m
OLI (7)
€1m
AMA (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
VIZ (13)
€5m
MOR (5)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (10)
€3m
AVS (8)
€3m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
ACA (6)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
LL (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
AMA (1)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
AVS (2)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
LL (2)
€1m
AMA (3)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
PEN (2)
€0m
ACA (1)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
TOR (15)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
LL (11)
€3m
AVS (10)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
OLI (5)
€1m
ACA (4)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
AMA (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
ALP wins
0
Draws
0
CP wins

Head-to-head

Alpendorada vs Casa Pia · H/A from ALP
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

AlpendoradaAlpendorada

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/10/25HALP Vs Estrela3-1
21/09/25HALP Vs Estrela Calheta7-1
20/10/24HALP Vs Cinfães1-1
22/09/24HALP Vs Sertanense3-0

Casa PiaCasa Pia

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/11/25ABenfica Vs CP2-2
01/11/25HCP Vs Estrela3-5
26/10/25ASC Braga Vs CP4-0
19/10/25AAnçã Vs CP0-3
03/10/25HCP Vs Estoril2-2
27/09/25AMoreirense Vs CP2-1
21/09/25HCP Vs Famalicao1-1
14/09/25AArouca Vs CP0-2
30/08/25HCP Vs Nacional0-2
24/08/25AFC Porto Vs CP4-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Alpendorada
Alpendorada
Portugal: Taça de Portugal
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWW2.50
HomeWDWW2.50
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %75%75%-
AVG goals4.254.25-
Over 1.5 %100%100%-
Over 2.5 %75%75%-
Over 3.5 %50%50%-
Scored3.503.50-
Conceded0.750.75-
BTTS75%75%-
Clean Sheet25%25%-
Corners---
Cards---
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
Portugal: Taça de Portugal
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLD1.32
HomeLLDDL1.38
AwayWLWLD1.27
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%38%35%
AVG goals2.762.752.77
Over 1.5 %82%79%85%
Over 2.5 %52%46%58%
Over 3.5 %32%33%31%
Scored1.321.331.31
Conceded1.441.421.46
BTTS54%62%46%
Clean Sheet24%17%31%
Corners9.208.959.42
Cards5.645.196.04

🏆 17. League Table

Casa Pia plays in Portugal - Primeira Liga
RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC PortoFC Porto3488
82%
2.6
6618+48
2.5
71%
56%
24%
8.6
35%
5.5
82%
26.4
71%
467
2141051481.90.5
55%
2Sporting CPSporting CP3482
74%
2.4
8924+65
3.3
91%
71%
35%
9.9
53%
5.2
62%
25.9
79%
414
146911762.60.7
62%
3BenficaBenfica3480
68%
2.4
7425+49
2.9
88%
71%
32%
10.0
56%
5.3
73%
26.8
74%
357
172771082.20.7
58%
4SC BragaSC Braga3459
47%
1.7
6436+28
2.9
76%
68%
38%
8.4
32%
5.0
79%
23.5
62%
165
4156681.91.1
63%
5FamalicaoFamalicao3456
44%
1.6
4229+13
2.1
53%
38%
24%
10.4
56%
5.1
68%
32.1
94%
57
1620221.20.9
51%
6GIL VicenteGIL Vicente3450
38%
1.5
4738+9
2.5
76%
53%
26%
9.5
50%
5.1
67%
28.2
85%
29
118111.41.1
50%
7MoreirenseMoreirense3443
35%
1.3
3749-12
2.5
74%
50%
21%
8.4
35%
4.9
68%
29.2
94%
22
5891.11.4
50%
8GuimaraesGuimaraes3442
35%
1.2
3951-12
2.6
76%
44%
24%
8.4
38%
5.2
74%
29.6
88%
46
2211121.11.5
51%
9AroucaArouca3442
35%
1.2
4764-17
3.3
79%
68%
50%
9.0
44%
5.7
79%
25.9
79%
28
11881.41.9
50%
10EstorilEstoril3439
29%
1.1
5457-3
3.3
76%
62%
53%
9.3
41%
4.9
88%
25.8
82%
42
248101.61.7
53%
11AlvercaAlverca3439
29%
1.1
3552-17
2.6
76%
50%
24%
8.9
44%
4.9
64%
26.4
71%
39
156181.01.5
45%
12Santa ClaraSanta Clara3436
26%
1.1
3241-9
2.1
56%
35%
15%
9.0
50%
6.1
85%
29.5
94%
27
96120.91.2
48%
13Rio AveRio Ave3436
24%
1.1
3557-22
2.7
82%
59%
29%
10.8
68%
5.2
62%
27.4
79%
37
88211.01.7
47%
14NacionalNacional3434
26%
1.0
3745-8
2.4
74%
41%
18%
10.8
68%
5.7
74%
27.2
88%
20
6591.11.3
46%
15Casa PiaCasa Pia3634
19%
0.9
3357-24
2.5
75%
42%
28%
10.0
50%
5.6
83%
29.8
92%
27
96120.91.6
41%
16EstrelaEstrela3430
18%
0.9
3856-18
2.8
74%
53%
38%
9.1
35%
5.6
82%
29.7
97%
20
63111.11.6
47%
17TondelaTondela3428
18%
0.8
2755-28
2.4
68%
50%
29%
9.8
50%
5.4
71%
26.8
82%
10
2160.81.6
44%
18AVSAVS3421
9%
0.6
2767-40
2.8
79%
59%
38%
9.5
47%
5.0
67%
24.7
71%
7
3230.82.0
39%
19TorreenseTorreense21
0%
0.5
02-2
1.0
50%
0%
0%
11.5
50%
6.5
100%
25.5
100%
19
72100.01.0
60%
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →

← all matches