This opponent (Rio Ave) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rio Ave
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.33
1.46
0.92
0.71
1.65
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
2.44
1.33
1.33
0.33
3.00
vs Similar (17)
1.24
0.94
1.50
0.80
0.86
1.14
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Alverca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.3%
Under 1.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.5%
Under 2.5
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.2%
Under 3.5
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.2%
No
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
1-2
9.8%
0-1
9.4%
0-2
9.2%
0-0
7.1%
2-1
5.9%
1-3
5.7%
0-3
5.4%
Alverca goals ↓
Rio Ave goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
9.4%
9.2%
5.4%
2.4%
1
5.2%
12%
9.8%
5.7%
2.5%
2
3.4%
5.9%
5.2%
3.0%
1.3%
3
1.2%
2.1%
1.8%
1.1%
0.5%
4
0.3%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alverca goals (down), columns = Rio Ave goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Benfica
2.71
Sporting CP
2.43
Rebordosa
2.40
Santa Clara
2.33
Alverca
2.33
Anadia
2.33
GIL Vicente
2.25
SC Braga
2.25
Amarante
2.25
Oliveira Hospital
2.25
São João Ver
2.17
Tirsense
2.14
Guimaraes
2.00
Moreirense
2.00
Chaves
2.00
Farense
2.00
Casa Pia
2.00
Penafiel
2.00
Torreense
2.00
União de Leiria
2.00
Leixoes
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
CF Os Belenenses
2.00
SC Covilha
2.00
Atlético CP
2.00
União Santarém
2.00
Moncarapachense
2.00
Maria da Fonte
2.00
Varzim
2.00
Alpendorada
2.00
Moura
2.00
Operário
2.00
Lusitânia
1.75
Vila Real
1.75
Cinfães
1.75
Brito
1.75
O Elvas
1.60
Arouca
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Academica
1.50
Portimonense
1.50
Famalicao
1.50
AVS
1.50
FC Porto
1.50
Mafra
1.50
Vilaverdense
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Vianense
1.50
Pevidem
1.50
Amora
1.50
Pombal
1.50
Os Limianos
1.50
Paredes
1.50
Pêro Pinheiro
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Guarda
1.50
Gondomar
1.50
Alcains
1.50
Lagoa
1.50
Sintrense
1.50
Sandinenses
1.50
Ferreira Zêzere
1.50
Machico
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
FC Serpa
1.50
Louletano
1.50
Sertanense
1.50
Régua
1.50
CF Benfica
1.50
Vieira
1.50
Estrela Vendas Novas
1.50
Arronches e Benfica
1.50
Aliança de Gandra
1.50
Atlético Arcos
1.50
Rio Ave
1.33
Sanjoanense
1.33
Caldas
1.33
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
Estoril
1.00
Academico Viseu
1.00
Lajense
1.00
Leça
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Marinhense
1.00
Beira-Mar
1.00
Fátima
1.00
Joane
1.00
Estrela
0.50
União de Coimbra
0.50
Tondela
0.00
Boavista
0.00
Nacional
0.00
Maritimo
0.00
Feirense
0.00
Vizela
0.00
Felgueiras 1932
0.00
Oliveirense
0.00
Trofense
0.00
União Lamas
0.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.00
Fafe
0.00
Viana Alentejo
0.00
Dumiense
0.00
Olímpico do Montijo
0.00
Camacha
0.00
Tocha
0.00
Peniche
0.00
Coimbrões
0.00
Eléctrico
0.00
Monção
0.00
Castrense
0.00
Sacavenense
0.00
Bragança
0.00
Comércio Indústria
0.00
O Grandolense
0.00
Académico do Fundão
0.00
Maia Lidador
0.00
São Roque (Açores)
0.00
Macedo Cavaleiros
0.00
Juventude Gaula
0.00
Ginásio Figueirense
0.00
Estarreja
0.00
Valpaços
0.00
UD da Serra
0.00
Resende (Portugal)
0.00
Lagos
0.00
Cardielense
0.00
Praia Milfontes
0.00
Vinhais
0.00
Vila Cortez
0.00
Pedrógão São Pedro
0.00
Oliveira de Frades
0.00
Vieirense
0.00
Velense
0.00
Rabo Peixe
0.00
Ferreiras
0.00
Fabril Barreiro
0.00
FC Barreirense
0.00
Portel
0.00
Salgueiros
0.00
Abrantes e Benfica
0.00
Pedras Salgadas
0.00
Gavionenses
0.00
Madalena
0.00
Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol
0.00
Alverca is 1.00 points better than Rio Ave in terms of average points per game (2.33 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Estarreja
4.00
Benfica
3.29
Arouca
3.00
Vizela
3.00
Casa Pia
3.00
Penafiel
3.00
Amarante
3.00
SC Covilha
3.00
Comércio Indústria
3.00
Valpaços
3.00
Alverca
2.67
Anadia
2.67
Vilaverdense
2.50
Os Limianos
2.50
Guarda
2.50
Alcains
2.50
FC Serpa
2.50
CF Benfica
2.50
Farense
2.33
Sanjoanense
2.33
Moncarapachense
2.33
Cinfães
2.25
Sporting CP
2.14
Guimaraes
2.00
Portimonense
2.00
AVS
2.00
FC Porto
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
Dumiense
2.00
Coimbrões
2.00
Paredes
2.00
Atlético CP
2.00
Oliveira Hospital
2.00
São João Ver
2.00
Rebordosa
2.00
Leça
2.00
Castrense
2.00
Alpendorada
2.00
Louletano
2.00
Beira-Mar
2.00
Sertanense
2.00
Vila Cortez
2.00
FC Barreirense
2.00
CF Os Belenenses
1.67
União Santarém
1.67
Varzim
1.67
Moura
1.67
Rio Ave
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
SC Braga
1.50
Torreense
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Vianense
1.50
Pombal
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Lusitânia
1.50
Ferreira Zêzere
1.50
Machico
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
Régua
1.50
Estrela Vendas Novas
1.50
Arronches e Benfica
1.50
Moreirense
1.33
Chaves
1.33
União de Leiria
1.33
GIL Vicente
1.25
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
O Elvas
1.20
Tirsense
1.14
Tondela
1.00
Nacional
1.00
Maritimo
1.00
Academica
1.00
Santa Clara
1.00
Famalicao
1.00
Academico Viseu
1.00
Leixoes
1.00
Oliveirense
1.00
Mafra
1.00
União Lamas
1.00
Fafe
1.00
Viana Alentejo
1.00
Pevidem
1.00
Olímpico do Montijo
1.00
Tocha
1.00
Lajense
1.00
Maria da Fonte
1.00
Lagoa
1.00
Sintrense
1.00
Sandinenses
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
Monção
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Bragança
1.00
Maia Lidador
1.00
São Roque (Açores)
1.00
União de Coimbra
1.00
Cardielense
1.00
Vinhais
1.00
Pedrógão São Pedro
1.00
Vieirense
1.00
Velense
1.00
Vieira
1.00
Fabril Barreiro
1.00
Operário
1.00
Aliança de Gandra
1.00
Atlético Arcos
1.00
Salgueiros
1.00
Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol
1.00
Vila Real
0.75
Brito
0.75
Caldas
0.67
Estrela
0.50
Amora
0.50
Pêro Pinheiro
0.50
Gondomar
0.50
Estoril
0.00
Boavista
0.00
Feirense
0.00
Felgueiras 1932
0.00
Trofense
0.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.00
Camacha
0.00
Peniche
0.00
Eléctrico
0.00
Sacavenense
0.00
Marinhense
0.00
Fátima
0.00
O Grandolense
0.00
Académico do Fundão
0.00
Macedo Cavaleiros
0.00
Juventude Gaula
0.00
Ginásio Figueirense
0.00
UD da Serra
0.00
Resende (Portugal)
0.00
Lagos
0.00
Praia Milfontes
0.00
Joane
0.00
Oliveira de Frades
0.00
Rabo Peixe
0.00
Ferreiras
0.00
Portel
0.00
Abrantes e Benfica
0.00
Pedras Salgadas
0.00
Gavionenses
0.00
Madalena
0.00
Alverca is 1.17 goals better than Rio Ave in terms of goals scored per game (2.67 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Estoril
0.00
Marinhense
0.00
Fátima
0.00
Joane
0.00
Operário
0.00
GIL Vicente
0.25
Benfica
0.29
Santa Clara
0.33
Academica
0.50
Famalicao
0.50
Atlético CP
0.50
Gondomar
0.50
Vila Real
0.50
Brito
0.50
FC Serpa
0.50
Alpendorada
0.50
Arronches e Benfica
0.50
Sporting CP
0.57
Varzim
0.67
Caldas
0.67
SC Braga
0.75
São João Ver
0.83
Guimaraes
1.00
Moreirense
1.00
Arouca
1.00
Boavista
1.00
Feirense
1.00
Chaves
1.00
Casa Pia
1.00
FC Porto
1.00
Academico Viseu
1.00
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Torreense
1.00
União de Leiria
1.00
Leixoes
1.00
CF Os Belenenses
1.00
Mafra
1.00
União Santarém
1.00
Anadia
1.00
Lagoa
1.00
Rebordosa
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
Ferreira Zêzere
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Machico
1.00
Louletano
1.00
UD da Serra
1.00
Vieira
1.00
Moura
1.00
Estrela Vendas Novas
1.00
Aliança de Gandra
1.00
Portel
1.00
O Elvas
1.20
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
Oliveira Hospital
1.25
Alverca
1.33
Sanjoanense
1.33
Moncarapachense
1.33
Tirsense
1.43
Rio Ave
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Portimonense
1.50
AVS
1.50
Penafiel
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Pevidem
1.50
Pêro Pinheiro
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Alcains
1.50
Sandinenses
1.50
Lusitânia
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
Régua
1.50
Atlético Arcos
1.50
SC Covilha
1.67
Cinfães
1.75
Tondela
2.00
Nacional
2.00
Maritimo
2.00
Farense
2.00
Amarante
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
Oliveirense
2.00
União Lamas
2.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
2.00
Viana Alentejo
2.00
Vianense
2.00
Olímpico do Montijo
2.00
Camacha
2.00
Peniche
2.00
Eléctrico
2.00
Maria da Fonte
2.00
Sintrense
2.00
Leça
2.00
Monção
2.00
Sacavenense
2.00
Bragança
2.00
Beira-Mar
2.00
Sertanense
2.00
Académico do Fundão
2.00
Maia Lidador
2.00
São Roque (Açores)
2.00
União de Coimbra
2.00
Cardielense
2.00
Vinhais
2.00
Velense
2.00
Fabril Barreiro
2.00
Salgueiros
2.00
Abrantes e Benfica
2.00
Pedras Salgadas
2.00
Madalena
2.00
Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol
2.00
Vilaverdense
2.50
Amora
2.50
Pombal
2.50
Os Limianos
2.50
Guarda
2.50
Lajense
2.67
Trofense
3.00
Dumiense
3.00
Coimbrões
3.00
Paredes
3.00
O Grandolense
3.00
Macedo Cavaleiros
3.00
Juventude Gaula
3.00
Resende (Portugal)
3.00
Lagos
3.00
Pedrógão São Pedro
3.00
Oliveira de Frades
3.00
Rabo Peixe
3.00
Ferreiras
3.00
FC Barreirense
3.00
Gavionenses
3.00
CF Benfica
3.50
Vizela
4.00
Estrela
4.00
Fafe
4.00
Tocha
4.00
Castrense
4.00
Comércio Indústria
4.00
Vila Cortez
4.00
Vieirense
4.00
Ginásio Figueirense
5.00
Estarreja
5.00
Valpaços
5.00
Praia Milfontes
5.00
Alverca is 0.17 goals better than Rio Ave in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Sporting CP
59%
Rio Ave
42%
Benfica
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Alverca
For 4.0 · Against 3.7 · Total 7.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.0 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.0 · Against 5.9 · Total 12.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rio Ave
For 5.9 · Against 6.7 · Total 12.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 14.0 · Total 27.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Alverca
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (13)
7.7
5.0
9.0
1.6
1.5
1.7
12.9
11.0
14.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
12.0
-
12.0
0.6
0.0
0.8
7.8
4.0
9.0
vs Weaker (8)
5.5
5.0
6.0
2.2
1.8
3.0
19.7
14.5
30.0
% over line
33%
0%
50%
23%
17%
29%
43%
33%
50%
% under line
67%
100%
50%
77%
83%
71%
57%
67%
50%
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rio Ave
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.1
10.6
4.9
5.5
4.3
29.0
30.3
27.7
vs Stronger (12)
10.7
9.0
11.5
5.2
7.0
4.2
26.8
29.2
25.6
vs Similar (30)
10.2
10.3
9.9
4.6
5.1
4.0
30.1
30.9
29.1
vs Weaker (8)
10.7
10.7
10.8
5.5
5.7
5.4
28.6
29.0
28.2
% over line
49%
45%
52%
70%
88%
54%
96%
95%
96%
% under line
51%
55%
48%
30%
12%
46%
4%
5%
4%
This opponent (Alverca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Farense
11.7
Nacional
11.5
Guimaraes
11.5
Feirense
11.2
Oliveirense
11.1
Tondela
10.9
AVS
10.8
Vilaverdense
10.8
Portimonense
10.7
Estrela
10.7
Rio Ave
10.7
Benfica
10.6
Estoril
10.6
SC Covilha
10.6
Trofense
10.6
Torreense
10.5
Penafiel
10.4
União de Leiria
10.3
Academico Viseu
10.2
Chaves
10.2
FC Porto
10.2
Arouca
10.0
Mafra
10.0
SC Braga
9.9
Casa Pia
9.9
Famalicao
9.9
Vizela
9.8
Leixoes
9.8
Pacos Ferreira
9.7
Maritimo
9.6
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Boavista
9.3
Moreirense
9.3
Sporting CP
8.9
GIL Vicente
8.8
Santa Clara
8.6
Felgueiras 1932
8.5
Alverca
7.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Trofense
7.1
FC Porto
6.3
Santa Clara
6.3
Famalicao
6.1
Boavista
6.0
Maritimo
5.9
Guimaraes
5.9
Chaves
5.8
Felgueiras 1932
5.7
Arouca
5.6
Oliveirense
5.5
Estoril
5.4
SC Covilha
5.4
Rio Ave
5.4
AVS
5.4
Penafiel
5.4
Leixoes
5.3
Portimonense
5.2
Pacos Ferreira
5.2
Nacional
5.2
União de Leiria
5.2
Vizela
5.1
SC Braga
5.0
Tondela
5.0
Torreense
5.0
Estrela
4.9
Moreirense
4.9
Vilaverdense
4.8
Feirense
4.8
Farense
4.7
Benfica
4.7
Sporting CP
4.7
GIL Vicente
4.7
Academico Viseu
4.6
Lusitânia Lourosa
4.5
Casa Pia
4.4
Mafra
4.4
CF Os Belenenses
4.1
Alverca
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Trofense
32.3
Famalicao
30.8
Pacos Ferreira
29.6
Rio Ave
29.3
Santa Clara
29.1
Vilaverdense
28.5
Leixoes
28.3
SC Covilha
28.2
Moreirense
28.0
Boavista
27.9
FC Porto
27.8
Nacional
27.6
Guimaraes
27.2
Maritimo
27.2
Chaves
27.2
Farense
26.9
Casa Pia
26.7
AVS
26.6
Oliveirense
26.6
Vizela
26.4
GIL Vicente
26.4
Arouca
26.3
Estoril
26.2
Estrela
26.1
Tondela
25.7
Portimonense
25.7
Penafiel
25.6
Torreense
25.1
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Feirense
24.7
União de Leiria
24.5
SC Braga
24.3
Mafra
24.2
Sporting CP
24.0
Academico Viseu
23.6
Benfica
22.0
Alverca
12.9
Felgueiras 1932
11.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
46.8%
Under 9.5
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.7%
Under 3.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
44.5%
Under 21.5
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Alverca or Draw✓ Hit
47.4%
Avg Implied -
22%
26%
53%
covers Alverca + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Alverca or Rio Ave✗ Miss
74.3%
Avg Implied -
22%
26%
53%
covers Alverca + Rio Ave
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Rio Ave✓ Hit
78.4%
Avg Implied -
22%
26%
53%
covers Draw + Rio Ave
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Alverca over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
65.3%
Under
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alverca over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
28.6%
Under
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alverca over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.2%
Under
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alverca over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.8%
Under
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
52.5%
Under
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
25.8%
Under
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Alverca, so a minus line means Alverca give that many goals of a start and Rio Ave receive them. At -1, Alverca must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Alverca win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Alverca)Actual: Rio Ave
Alverca -2
2.4%
Draw -2
6.0%
Rio Ave +2
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Alverca)Actual: Rio Ave
Alverca -1
8.4%
Draw -1
13.3%
Rio Ave +1
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Alverca)Actual: Alverca
Alverca +1
47.4%
Draw +1
22.7%
Rio Ave -1
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Alverca)Actual: Alverca
Alverca +2
70.1%
Draw +2
16.5%
Rio Ave -2
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Alverca
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.62
0.46
0.33
0.67
0.86
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
1.00
0.00
3.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.12
0.40
0.20
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
69% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rio Ave
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.85
0.38
0.41
0.82
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.44
0.67
1.00
0.17
1.67
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.35
0.90
0.20
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Alverca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alverca over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alverca over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alverca over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Alverca
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.69
0.85
1.00
0.67
0.43
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.20
0.80
0.00
1.00
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.88
1.20
0.60
0.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rio Ave
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.70
0.62
0.54
0.29
0.82
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.00
0.67
0.33
0.17
1.33
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.59
0.60
0.60
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Alverca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Alverca over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alverca over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alverca over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Alverca
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ageu33%
Fernando Varela20%
Anthony Carter20%
Andrézinho20%
Ricardo Dias0%
Diogo Martins0%
João Victor0%
Pedro Bicalho0%
João Marcos0%
Brenner0%
Thauan Lara0%
Luiz Miguel0%
Miguel Pires0%
Alysson Silva0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ricardo Dias50%
Alysson Silva25%
Andrézinho20%
João Victor20%
Pedro Bicalho20%
Fernando Varela0%
Anthony Carter0%
Diogo Martins0%
João Marcos0%
Brenner0%
Thauan Lara0%
Ageu0%
Luiz Miguel0%
Miguel Pires0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Thauan Lara33%
Ageu33%
Anthony Carter20%
Fernando Varela0%
Ricardo Dias0%
Andrézinho0%
Diogo Martins0%
João Victor0%
Pedro Bicalho0%
João Marcos0%
Brenner0%
Luiz Miguel0%
Miguel Pires0%
Alysson Silva0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Anthony Carter20%
Diogo Martins20%
Fernando Varela0%
Ricardo Dias0%
Andrézinho0%
João Victor0%
Pedro Bicalho0%
João Marcos0%
Brenner0%
Thauan Lara0%
Ageu0%
Luiz Miguel0%
Miguel Pires0%
Alysson Silva0%
Rio Ave
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Clayton39%
Francisco Petrasso14%
Tiago Morais12%
Ahmed Hassan11%
Brandon Aguilera11%
André Luiz11%
Demir Ege Tıknaz10%
Martim Neto8%
Fábio Ronaldo8%
Theofanis Bakoulas8%
Patrick William8%
Kiko Bondoso7%
João Graça6%
Jonathan Panzo5%
Ole Pohlmann3%
Marios Vrousai3%
Renato Pantalon0%
Omar Richards0%
Cezary Miszta0%
João Novais0%
Jhonatan0%
Vítor Gomes0%
Amine Oudrhiri0%
Aderllan Santos0%
Andreas Ndoj0%
Nelson Abbey0%
João Pedro0%
João Tomé0%
Karem Zoabi0%
Tobias Medina0%
Konstantinos Kostoulas0%
Tim Sousa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Konstantinos Kostoulas50%
Clayton36%
Theofanis Bakoulas33%
Patrick William31%
Francisco Petrasso29%
Martim Neto25%
Demir Ege Tıknaz23%
Ahmed Hassan22%
Andreas Ndoj22%
Jonathan Panzo20%
Aderllan Santos17%
Amine Oudrhiri15%
Marios Vrousai15%
Brandon Aguilera15%
Omar Richards15%
Jhonatan12%
Renato Pantalon11%
Nelson Abbey11%
André Luiz11%
João Tomé11%
Karem Zoabi8%
Cezary Miszta7%
João Novais6%
João Graça6%
Kiko Bondoso4%
Ole Pohlmann3%
Tiago Morais3%
Vítor Gomes0%
Fábio Ronaldo0%
João Pedro0%
Tobias Medina0%
Tim Sousa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
João Pedro20%
Karem Zoabi17%
Vítor Gomes14%
Marios Vrousai9%
Clayton9%
Fábio Ronaldo8%
Ole Pohlmann7%
Demir Ege Tıknaz7%
André Luiz6%
João Tomé6%
Martim Neto4%
Brandon Aguilera4%
Omar Richards4%
Kiko Bondoso4%
Ahmed Hassan0%
Patrick William0%
Renato Pantalon0%
Cezary Miszta0%
João Novais0%
Jhonatan0%
Amine Oudrhiri0%
Aderllan Santos0%
Jonathan Panzo0%
João Graça0%
Andreas Ndoj0%
Nelson Abbey0%
Tiago Morais0%
Francisco Petrasso0%
Tobias Medina0%
Konstantinos Kostoulas0%
Theofanis Bakoulas0%
Tim Sousa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Clayton39%
Tiago Morais15%
Francisco Petrasso14%
João Novais12%
André Luiz11%
Marios Vrousai9%
Andreas Ndoj6%
Brandon Aguilera4%
Ahmed Hassan0%
Patrick William0%
Renato Pantalon0%
Omar Richards0%
Cezary Miszta0%
Jhonatan0%
Vítor Gomes0%
Amine Oudrhiri0%
Aderllan Santos0%
Jonathan Panzo0%
João Graça0%
Kiko Bondoso0%
Ole Pohlmann0%
Martim Neto0%
Nelson Abbey0%
Fábio Ronaldo0%
João Pedro0%
João Tomé0%
Demir Ege Tıknaz0%
Karem Zoabi0%
Tobias Medina0%
Konstantinos Kostoulas0%
Theofanis Bakoulas0%
Tim Sousa0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
FAR (24)
€8m
AVS (20)
€7m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
LL (19)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
ACA (11)
€2m
PF (13)
€2m
OLI (7)
€1m
AMA (6)
€1m
Alverca's squad is €2m more valuable than Rio Ave's (€39m vs €37m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
VIZ (13)
€5m
MOR (5)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (10)
€3m
AVS (8)
€3m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
ACA (6)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
LL (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
AMA (1)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Alverca's attack is €7m more valuable than Rio Ave's (€15m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
AVS (2)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
LL (2)
€1m
AMA (3)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
PEN (2)
€0m
ACA (1)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Alverca's midfield is €2m less valuable than Rio Ave's (€6m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
TOR (15)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
LL (11)
€3m
AVS (10)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
OLI (5)
€1m
ACA (4)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
AMA (2)
€0m
Alverca's defence is €3m less valuable than Rio Ave's (€18m vs €21m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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Tondela
Vizela
Benfica B
Torreense
União de Leiria
Chaves
Feirense
Felgueiras 1932
Academico Viseu
Penafiel
Maritimo
Leixoes
Pacos Ferreira
FC Porto B
Portimonense
Oliveirense
Mafra
CF Os Belenenses
Sporting CP
Benfica
FC Porto
SC Braga
Santa Clara
Guimaraes
Famalicao
Estoril
Casa Pia
Moreirense
Arouca
GIL Vicente
Nacional
AVS
Estrela
Farense
Boavista