SC Braga are tipped to win away, the model’s pick, with a 54% chance of triumph, 25% for a draw and 20% for an Alverca home victory. The expected total is 2.8 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 25% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.1% chance. Alverca, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 0.5 goals scored and 3.5 conceded, while Braga, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded. The model’s selections include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.2%, Under 7.5 at 99.2%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.3% with a 6% edge, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.0% with a 3% edge, Under 6.5 at 97.5% with a 1% edge, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.1% with a 5% edge, Under 5.5 at 93.4% with no edge, and Away under 2.5 2H goals at 93.3% with a 3% edge. Alverca’s recent form shows a draw in their last match, while Braga remain unbeaten in five outings, winning three.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Alverca win
20.2%
Avg Implied 20.7% · @ 4.53
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Bet365
4.75
Betano
4.75
Pinnacle
4.70
Draw
25.4%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.50
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.65
1xBet
3.64
Pinnacle
3.61
Betano
3.60
10Bet
3.50
SC Braga win
54.4%
Avg Implied 52.6% · @ 1.78
Edge
+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.86
1xBet
1.84
Betfair
1.80
Dafabet
1.80
Betano
1.78
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Alverca
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.60
1.13
1.40
0.73
1.80
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
2.75
0.50
3.50
0.33
2.50
vs Similar (18)
1.28
1.33
1.36
1.27
1.14
1.43
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Braga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
0.97
2.19
0.81
1.36
1.14
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
2.00
1.50
2.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (6)
2.00
1.50
2.33
0.67
1.67
2.33
vs Weaker (21)
1.76
0.67
2.27
0.64
1.20
0.70
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Alverca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.1%
@ 1.32+7.6%
Under 1.5
21.9%
@ 3.16-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
10Bet
1.35
BetVictor
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.40
Pinnacle
3.32
Bet365
3.25
Unibet
3.25
Betano
3.20
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
53.2%
@ 2.02+6.5%
Under 2.5
46.8%
@ 1.77-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.10
1xBet
2.09
Pinnacle
2.06
Bet365
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
Under
SBO
1.83
1xBet
1.81
Betfair
1.80
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.78
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.9%
@ 3.54+4.6%
Under 3.5
69.1%
@ 1.26-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.70
Betano
3.60
10Bet
3.60
Pinnacle
3.52
Under
Pinnacle
1.30
Betano
1.29
Betfair
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Both teams to score
Yes
54.2%
@ 1.88+5.0%
No
45.8%
@ 1.83-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.93
BetVictor
1.90
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
No
Betfair
1.90
Unibet
1.86
10Bet
1.83
William Hil
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%@ 6.31+5.1%
1-2
9.8%@ 7.80+4.2%
0-1
9.7%@ 6.10+2.5%
0-2
9.7%@ 7.65+3.9%
0-0
7.2%@ 8.57+2.0%
1-3
5.9%@ 13.72+2.6%
0-3
5.8%@ 13.29+2.4%
2-1
5.6%@ 13.44+2.3%
Alverca goals ↓
SC Braga goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
9.7%
9.7%
5.8%
2.6%
1
5.1%
12%
9.8%
5.9%
2.6%
2
3.1%
5.6%
5.0%
3.0%
1.3%
3
1.1%
1.9%
1.7%
1.0%
0.5%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alverca goals (down), columns = SC Braga goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
1.74
Famalicao
1.65
GIL Vicente
1.47
Moreirense
1.26
Arouca
1.24
Guimaraes
1.24
Estoril
1.15
Alverca
1.15
Maritimo
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.10
Rio Ave
1.06
Santa Clara
1.06
Nacional
1.00
Casa Pia
0.94
Estrela
0.88
Alverca is 0.59 points worse than SC Braga in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.74).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.62
Benfica
2.18
FC Porto
1.94
SC Braga
1.88
Estoril
1.59
Arouca
1.38
GIL Vicente
1.38
Famalicao
1.24
Guimaraes
1.15
Estrela
1.12
Moreirense
1.09
Nacional
1.09
Maritimo
1.08
Academico Viseu
1.06
Rio Ave
1.03
Alverca
1.03
Santa Clara
0.94
Casa Pia
0.92
Alverca is 0.85 goals worse than SC Braga in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Sporting CP
0.71
Benfica
0.74
Famalicao
0.85
SC Braga
1.06
GIL Vicente
1.12
Santa Clara
1.21
Nacional
1.32
Moreirense
1.44
Guimaraes
1.50
Alverca
1.53
Maritimo
1.55
Academico Viseu
1.58
Casa Pia
1.58
Estrela
1.65
Estoril
1.68
Rio Ave
1.68
Arouca
1.88
Alverca is 0.47 goals worse than SC Braga in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.06).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
SC Braga
63%
Sporting CP
62%
Benfica
58%
FC Porto
55%
Estoril
53%
Guimaraes
51%
Famalicao
51%
Arouca
50%
GIL Vicente
50%
Moreirense
50%
Santa Clara
48%
Rio Ave
47%
Estrela
47%
Nacional
46%
Alverca
45%
Casa Pia
41%
Alverca is 18.0 percentage points worse than SC Braga in terms of average possession (45% vs 63%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Alverca
For 5.7 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 12.7 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SC Braga
For 4.9 · Against 3.3 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 13.2 · Total 26.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Alverca
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.0
9.8
4.3
4.2
4.4
23.4
25.4
21.6
vs Stronger (10)
7.5
5.5
8.8
4.2
4.8
3.8
23.9
23.2
24.3
vs Similar (25)
9.3
8.8
10.0
4.8
4.4
5.3
26.7
28.3
24.8
vs Weaker (15)
9.6
8.2
11.0
3.5
3.4
3.5
16.9
20.0
14.7
% over line
48%
30%
65%
58%
60%
56%
64%
71%
57%
% under line
52%
70%
35%
42%
40%
44%
36%
29%
43%
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Braga
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.9
7.0
8.8
4.4
4.4
4.4
24.9
25.2
24.7
vs Stronger (5)
8.0
8.3
7.5
6.6
7.3
5.5
25.0
26.7
22.5
vs Similar (11)
7.7
5.5
10.4
5.3
4.7
6.0
26.2
25.2
27.4
vs Weaker (34)
8.0
7.5
8.4
3.7
3.7
3.8
24.4
24.8
24.1
% over line
34%
23%
45%
66%
68%
64%
70%
73%
68%
% under line
66%
77%
55%
34%
32%
36%
30%
27%
32%
This opponent (Alverca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Famalicao
10.5
Rio Ave
10.4
Nacional
10.2
Benfica
10.1
Sporting CP
9.8
Casa Pia
9.6
Academico Viseu
9.5
GIL Vicente
9.1
Estoril
9.0
Santa Clara
9.0
Estrela
9.0
Alverca
8.9
FC Porto
8.9
Arouca
8.9
Guimaraes
8.5
Maritimo
8.1
SC Braga
8.1
Moreirense
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Santa Clara
5.9
Maritimo
5.8
Academico Viseu
5.8
Casa Pia
5.6
Arouca
5.6
Estrela
5.5
Famalicao
5.4
Nacional
5.4
Guimaraes
5.2
Moreirense
5.2
FC Porto
5.2
Sporting CP
5.1
Benfica
5.0
Rio Ave
5.0
GIL Vicente
4.9
SC Braga
4.9
Alverca
4.8
Estoril
4.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
32.0
Santa Clara
30.1
Estrela
29.9
Moreirense
29.5
Casa Pia
29.2
Guimaraes
28.9
GIL Vicente
27.9
Rio Ave
27.0
Nacional
26.9
Estoril
26.7
Sporting CP
26.2
FC Porto
26.1
Arouca
26.0
Benfica
25.8
Academico Viseu
25.3
SC Braga
24.7
Maritimo
24.6
Alverca
23.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
35.3%
@ 2.58-0.2%
Under 9.5
64.7%
@ 1.43+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.67
1xBet
2.63
Marathonbet
2.63
Unibet
2.40
Under
Unibet
1.48
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
69.7%
Under 3.5
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
77.9%
Under 21.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Alverca or Draw
45.6%
Avg Implied 47.0% · @ 1.99
Edge
-1.4%
20%
25%
54%
covers Alverca + Draw
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.08
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.03
William Hil
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Alverca or SC Braga
74.6%
Avg Implied 74.0% · @ 1.26
Edge
+0.6%
20%
25%
54%
covers Alverca + SC Braga
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Draw or SC Braga
79.8%
Avg Implied 79.0% · @ 1.18
Edge
+0.8%
20%
25%
54%
covers Draw + SC Braga
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.22
Betano
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Alverca over/under 0.5
Over
63.8%
@ 1.56+4.3%
Under
36.2%
@ 2.30-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.60
10Bet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
BetVictor
1.57
Under
Betfair
2.50
Pinnacle
2.41
Unibet
2.38
Betano
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
Alverca over/under 1.5
Over
27.0%
@ 3.76+2.2%
Under
73.0%
@ 1.24-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.91
1xBet
3.82
Marathonbet
3.82
10Bet
3.80
Under
Betfair
1.29
Unibet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.24
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Alverca over/under 2.5
Over
8.3%
@ 10.30-0.8%
Under
91.7%
@ 1.03+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
10.25
Betfair
9.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betfair
1.05
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Alverca over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
@ 26.75-1.6%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
SC Braga over/under 0.5
Over
83.3%
@ 1.18+4.8%
Under
16.7%
@ 4.33-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
BetVictor
4.40
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.30
SC Braga over/under 1.5
Over
53.4%
@ 1.94+5.2%
Under
46.6%
@ 1.80-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.00
Pinnacle
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Unibet
1.93
Under
Pinnacle
1.85
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
10Bet
1.80
SC Braga over/under 2.5
Over
26.6%
@ 3.91+2.9%
Under
73.4%
@ 1.22-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.10
Pinnacle
4.04
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.85
Under
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
SC Braga over/under 3.5
Over
10.7%
@ 8.56-0.2%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.05+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
1xBet
8.20
Marathonbet
8.20
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Alverca, so a minus line means Alverca give that many goals of a start and SC Braga receive them. At -1, Alverca must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Alverca win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Alverca)
Alverca -2
2.1%
@ 27.50-1.3%
Draw -2
5.5%
@ 14.00-1.2%
SC Braga +2
92.4%
@ 1.04+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
29.00
Betfair
26.00
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
Away
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Handicap -1 (Alverca)
Alverca -1
7.6%
@ 9.50-1.7%
Draw -1
12.6%
@ 5.52-3.4%
SC Braga +1
79.8%
@ 1.19+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
11.00
10Bet
10.00
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
6.50
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.30
Marathonbet
4.05
Away
Unibet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Handicap +1 (Alverca)
Alverca +1
45.6%
@ 1.96-0.2%
Draw +1
23.0%
@ 3.47-2.8%
SC Braga -1
31.3%
@ 3.17+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
Betfair
1.91
Unibet
1.89
Draw
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.60
Marathonbet
3.40
Unibet
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Away
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Unibet
3.15
10Bet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.04
Handicap +2 (Alverca)
Alverca +2
68.7%
@ 1.30+0.2%
Draw +2
17.0%
@ 4.93-1.0%
SC Braga -2
14.3%
@ 6.55+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
Unibet
1.28
Betfair
1.25
Draw
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Unibet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Away
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Alverca
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.60
0.20
0.40
0.27
0.80
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.38
0.00
1.00
0.17
1.50
vs Similar (18)
0.28
0.39
0.27
0.36
0.29
0.43
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Braga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.40
1.25
0.38
0.64
0.43
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (6)
1.00
1.00
1.67
0.33
0.33
1.67
vs Weaker (21)
1.05
0.19
1.27
0.27
0.80
0.10
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Alverca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.4%
@ 1.41+4.4%
Under 0.5
29.6%
@ 2.73-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.43
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
William Hil
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.90
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.75
William Hil
2.75
Unibet
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.9%
@ 2.92+6.1%
Under 1.5
62.1%
@ 1.36-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.10
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.98
1xBet
2.94
Marathonbet
2.94
Under
10Bet
1.38
BetVictor
1.37
Betano
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.3%
@ 7.37+3.7%
Under 2.5
83.7%
@ 1.07-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Betano
7.20
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alverca over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.8%
@ 2.69+2.2%
Under
63.2%
@ 1.42-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.87
Betano
2.82
Marathonbet
2.72
1xBet
2.60
10Bet
2.60
Under
10Bet
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Unibet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.40
Alverca over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.3%
@ 9.88-2.1%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.02+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.75
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
Alverca over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 0.5 HT
Over
56.4%
@ 1.80+4.8%
Under
43.6%
@ 1.92-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.80
Unibet
1.79
Under
1xBet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
10Bet
1.93
Betano
1.88
Unibet
1.88
SC Braga over/under 1.5 HT
Over
21.5%
@ 5.14+3.4%
Under
78.5%
@ 1.13-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.15
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
SC Braga over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.9%
@ 10.75-3.9%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.03+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Alverca
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.00
0.93
1.00
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.38
0.50
2.50
0.17
1.00
vs Similar (18)
1.00
0.94
1.09
0.91
0.86
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Braga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
0.94
0.44
0.71
0.71
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (6)
1.00
0.50
0.67
0.33
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (21)
0.71
0.48
1.00
0.36
0.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Alverca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.9%
@ 1.26+5.0%
Under 0.5
21.1%
@ 3.56-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Under
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.65
10Bet
3.55
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.8%
@ 2.19+2.4%
Under 1.5
55.2%
@ 1.62-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.21
Marathonbet
2.21
Betano
2.20
Bet365
2.20
William Hil
2.20
Under
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
Unibet
1.60
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.1%
@ 4.79-1.4%
Under 2.5
81.9%
@ 1.16+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
5.00
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
1xBet
4.70
Under
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Alverca over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.8%
@ 2.27+2.9%
Under
56.2%
@ 1.57-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.27
Betano
2.27
Marathonbet
2.26
Under
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.55
Alverca over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.7%
@ 7.57-1.5%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.05+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.80
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Alverca over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.9%
@ 12.50-5.6%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
SC Braga over/under 0.5 2H
Over
65.4%
@ 1.55+5.7%
Under
34.6%
@ 2.31-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.54
Under
Betano
2.32
1xBet
2.30
SC Braga over/under 1.5 2H
Over
29.2%
@ 3.60+3.4%
Under
70.8%
@ 1.25-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
1xBet
3.60
Betano
3.50
Under
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
SC Braga over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.2%
@ 9.00-3.1%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.03+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.6%
Home under 3.5 goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.6%
Under 6.5
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.0%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.1%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.9%
Under 5.5
93.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+0.2%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.8%
1.03
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.1%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.7%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.1%
Away +2 handicap
92.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
+2.5%
Home under 2.5 goals
91.7%
1.03
Betfair
1.05
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
+0.8%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.3%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+1.5%
Away under 3.5 goals
89.3%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
+0.2%
Over 19.5 fouls
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.7%
1.08
Pinnacle
1.11
Betano
1.11
Betfair
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
-1.9%
Under 11.5 corners
84.5%
1.12
Unibet
1.17
Betano
1.14
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
-
+2.7%
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.7%
1.07
Betano
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-3.7%
Away over 0.5 goals
83.3%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
+4.8%
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.9%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
+1.4%
Draw or Away
79.8%
1.18
1xBet
1.22
Betano
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
+0.8%
Away +1 handicap
79.8%
1.19
Unibet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+5.1%
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.9%
1.26
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
+5.0%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
78.5%
1.13
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
-
-3.4%
Over 1.5
78.1%
1.32
Betano
1.37
10Bet
1.35
BetVictor
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.33
+7.6%
Over 21.5 fouls
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
75.8%
1.23
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
-
+1.3%
Home or Away
74.6%
1.26
1xBet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Betano
1.27
+0.6%
Away under 2.5 goals
73.4%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-2.9%
Home under 1.5 goals
73.0%
1.24
Betfair
1.29
Unibet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.24
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
-2.2%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
70.8%
1.25
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
-
-3.4%
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.4%
1.41
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.43
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
William Hil
1.40
+4.4%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Alverca
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Vivaldo50%
Ian Luccas25%
Marco Essimi0%
Nabil Touaizi0%
Matheus Mendes0%
Figueiredo0%
Steven Baseya0%
Isaac James0%
Rayan Lucas0%
Francisco Chissumba0%
Yaya Bojang0%
Samy Jr Merheg0%
Davy Gui0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Davy Gui67%
Yaya Bojang50%
Nabil Touaizi25%
Matheus Mendes25%
Figueiredo25%
Vivaldo25%
Marco Essimi0%
Ian Luccas0%
Steven Baseya0%
Isaac James0%
Rayan Lucas0%
Francisco Chissumba0%
Samy Jr Merheg0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Isaac James50%
Rayan Lucas33%
Marco Essimi0%
Nabil Touaizi0%
Matheus Mendes0%
Ian Luccas0%
Figueiredo0%
Steven Baseya0%
Vivaldo0%
Francisco Chissumba0%
Yaya Bojang0%
Samy Jr Merheg0%
Davy Gui0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nabil Touaizi25%
Ian Luccas25%
Vivaldo25%
Marco Essimi0%
Matheus Mendes0%
Figueiredo0%
Steven Baseya0%
Isaac James0%
Rayan Lucas0%
Francisco Chissumba0%
Yaya Bojang0%
Samy Jr Merheg0%
Davy Gui0%
SC Braga
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Diego Rodrigues67%
Pau Víctor50%
Fran Navarro25%
João Moutinho0%
Vítor Carvalho0%
Gustaf Lagerbielke0%
Victor Gómez0%
Adrian Bajrami0%
Gabriel Silva0%
Demir Ege Tıknaz0%
Diogo Travassos0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Mario Dorgeles0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Fran Navarro25%
João Moutinho25%
Vítor Carvalho25%
Pau Víctor25%
Demir Ege Tıknaz25%
Diogo Travassos25%
Gustaf Lagerbielke0%
Victor Gómez0%
Adrian Bajrami0%
Gabriel Silva0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Diego Rodrigues0%
Mario Dorgeles0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vítor Carvalho25%
Gabriel Silva25%
Demir Ege Tıknaz25%
Mario Dorgeles25%
Fran Navarro0%
João Moutinho0%
Gustaf Lagerbielke0%
Victor Gómez0%
Adrian Bajrami0%
Pau Víctor0%
Diogo Travassos0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Diego Rodrigues0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fran Navarro0%
João Moutinho0%
Vítor Carvalho0%
Gustaf Lagerbielke0%
Victor Gómez0%
Adrian Bajrami0%
Pau Víctor0%
Gabriel Silva0%
Demir Ege Tıknaz0%
Diogo Travassos0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Diego Rodrigues0%
Mario Dorgeles0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
Alverca's squad is €126m less valuable than SC Braga's (€39m vs €165m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
Alverca's attack is €26m less valuable than SC Braga's (€15m vs €41m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
Alverca's midfield is €49m less valuable than SC Braga's (€6m vs €56m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
Alverca's defence is €50m less valuable than SC Braga's (€18m vs €68m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Porto
Sporting CP
Arouca
Santa Clara
Benfica
GIL Vicente
Maritimo
Estrela
Nacional
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
Famalicao
Academico Viseu
Estoril
Casa Pia