Pythia gives Amiens a 25% win probability against RED Star FC 93 in the France: Ligue 2 on 2026-05-02, with 27% for the draw and 48% for RED Star FC 93. The model estimates around 2.8 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (25%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.7%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 21.5 fouls (90%), Over 1.5 (78%).
Results analysis
Amiens finished 1-3 against RED Star FC 93 (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 25% home win, 27% draw and 48% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (78%). Missed: Over 21.5 fouls (90%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Amiens win✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied 22.4% · @ 4.08
Edge
+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied 24.4% · @ 3.74
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
RED Star FC 93 win✓ Hit
48.2%
Avg Implied 53.2% · @ 1.72
Edge
-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Amiens
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.80
0.93
1.80
1.13
1.80
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.50
0.00
1.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (24)
1.17
1.79
1.17
1.92
1.17
1.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
2.50
0.00
1.00
2.00
4.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (RED Star FC 93) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
RED Star FC 93
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.13
1.31
1.31
1.36
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
1.29
1.12
1.31
1.38
1.27
0.82
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
1.00
2.00
1.50
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Amiens) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.8%
Under 1.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.6%
@ 1.74-0.7%
Under 2.5
47.4%
@ 1.99+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.4%
Under 3.5
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.0%
No
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
1-2
9.5%
0-1
9.0%
0-2
8.4%
0-0
7.3%
2-1
6.6%
1-0
5.9%
2-2
5.4%
Amiens goals ↓
RED Star FC 93 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.3%
9.0%
8.4%
4.6%
1.9%
1
5.9%
13%
9.5%
5.2%
2.2%
2
4.0%
6.6%
5.4%
3.0%
1.2%
3
1.5%
2.5%
2.0%
1.1%
0.5%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Amiens goals (down), columns = RED Star FC 93 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Estac Troyes
2.03
Le Mans
1.78
Saint Etienne
1.75
Red Star
1.67
Rodez
1.67
RED Star FC 93
1.67
Reims
1.67
Annecy
1.53
Montpellier
1.47
PAU
1.33
Dunkerque
1.28
Guingamp
1.11
Grenoble
1.08
Clermont Foot
1.06
Nancy
1.03
Boulogne
1.03
Laval
0.97
Bastia
0.82
Amiens
0.75
Rouen
0.50
Amiens is 0.92 points worse than RED Star FC 93 in terms of average points per game (0.75 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Estac Troyes
1.78
Saint Etienne
1.72
Dunkerque
1.56
Reims
1.56
PAU
1.42
Annecy
1.42
Le Mans
1.39
Red Star
1.36
RED Star FC 93
1.36
Rodez
1.31
Guingamp
1.22
Montpellier
1.19
Amiens
1.14
Clermont Foot
1.11
Boulogne
1.03
Nancy
1.00
Grenoble
0.92
Laval
0.84
Bastia
0.76
Rouen
0.50
Amiens is 0.22 goals worse than RED Star FC 93 in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.36).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Le Mans
0.86
Montpellier
0.92
Estac Troyes
0.94
Rouen
1.00
Reims
1.03
Saint Etienne
1.11
Red Star
1.12
RED Star FC 93
1.12
Rodez
1.14
Annecy
1.14
Grenoble
1.19
Bastia
1.26
Dunkerque
1.28
Clermont Foot
1.31
Laval
1.32
Boulogne
1.47
Nancy
1.53
Guingamp
1.56
PAU
1.81
Amiens
1.92
Amiens is 0.80 goals worse than RED Star FC 93 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.92 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saint Etienne
59%
Reims
58%
Dunkerque
57%
Guingamp
56%
RED Star FC 93
54%
Montpellier
52%
Estac Troyes
52%
PAU
51%
Clermont Foot
50%
Bastia
50%
Le Mans
49%
Amiens
47%
Laval
47%
Boulogne
46%
Annecy
45%
Grenoble
44%
Rouen
43%
Nancy
42%
Rodez
40%
Amiens is 7.1 percentage points worse than RED Star FC 93 in terms of average possession (47% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Amiens
For 5.2 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 15.3 · Total 28.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
RED Star FC 93
For 5.4 · Against 3.6 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 14.7 · Total 28.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Amiens
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.1
11.0
4.2
3.8
4.5
28.5
28.8
28.2
vs Stronger (8)
11.1
13.0
9.2
2.9
2.2
3.5
24.2
24.8
23.8
vs Similar (39)
10.5
9.5
11.5
4.3
4.1
4.5
29.3
29.7
28.9
vs Weaker (3)
9.0
9.0
9.0
5.3
4.0
6.0
29.7
28.0
30.5
% over line
64%
54%
73%
68%
54%
81%
88%
92%
85%
% under line
36%
46%
27%
32%
46%
19%
12%
8%
15%
This opponent (RED Star FC 93) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
RED Star FC 93
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.3
7.9
8.7
3.6
3.9
3.3
26.6
27.8
25.5
vs Stronger (4)
8.5
6.5
10.5
3.0
2.0
4.0
25.0
22.0
28.0
vs Similar (39)
8.1
7.8
8.4
3.6
4.0
3.3
26.8
27.6
25.8
vs Weaker (7)
9.1
9.3
9.0
3.9
5.0
3.0
26.7
32.3
22.5
% over line
45%
36%
54%
54%
64%
44%
76%
76%
75%
% under line
55%
64%
46%
46%
36%
56%
24%
24%
25%
This opponent (Amiens) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Amiens
10.5
Laval
10.2
Rodez
10.1
Montpellier
9.8
Grenoble
9.7
PAU
9.6
Nancy
9.5
Saint Etienne
9.5
Reims
9.3
Le Mans
9.2
Clermont Foot
9.2
Guingamp
9.1
Rouen
8.9
Bastia
8.8
Boulogne
8.6
Annecy
8.4
Dunkerque
8.4
Estac Troyes
8.4
RED Star FC 93
8.3
Red Star
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bastia
5.4
PAU
4.7
Guingamp
4.6
Boulogne
4.6
Le Mans
4.6
Annecy
4.3
Reims
4.3
Rodez
4.3
Amiens
4.2
Nancy
4.2
Laval
4.1
Montpellier
4.1
Clermont Foot
4.1
Estac Troyes
4.1
Dunkerque
4.1
Saint Etienne
4.0
RED Star FC 93
3.7
Grenoble
3.7
Red Star
3.5
Rouen
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Annecy
29.1
Nancy
29.0
Bastia
28.9
Montpellier
28.6
Guingamp
28.5
Amiens
28.5
Laval
28.3
Boulogne
28.3
Le Mans
28.1
Estac Troyes
27.6
Rouen
27.2
Clermont Foot
26.8
Red Star
26.7
RED Star FC 93
26.7
Dunkerque
26.6
Grenoble
26.3
PAU
26.1
Saint Etienne
26.1
Rodez
25.9
Reims
24.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
48.0%
Under 9.5
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
56.5%
Under 3.5
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
89.5%
Under 21.5
10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🔢 6. Odd / Even
🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 8. Handicap
🔥 9. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
France: Ligue 2 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Estac Troyes
Le Mans
Saint Etienne
Reims
Rodez
Annecy
Montpellier
PAU
Dunkerque
Guingamp
Grenoble
Clermont Foot
Boulogne
Laval
Nancy
Bastia
Rouen