Anderlecht’s recent 0-3 loss to Union St. Gilloise has left the hosts looking fragile, yet their average 1.83 goals scored and conceded at home against similar opposition suggests they can still find the net. Genk, fresh from a 4-0 victory over SK Beveren, averages 1.86 goals scored and conceded on the road, indicating a balanced attack and defence. The model projects a high-scoring encounter, with an expected 3.2 goals and a most likely total of 3 goals at a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.3% chance. The favoured outcome is a home win, with a 43% chance, followed by a draw at 25% and an away win at 32%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.6% with a 5% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.3% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.4% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.4% with a 6% edge), Under 6.5 (95.4% with a 3% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (93.5% with a 3% edge) and Home under 3.5 goals (90.1%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Anderlecht win
43.2%
Avg Implied 38.5% · @ 2.43
Edge
+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.50
Dafabet
2.47
1xBet
2.46
10Bet
2.45
Betano
2.45
Draw
25.7%
Avg Implied 26.8% · @ 3.50
Edge
-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.60
Unibet
3.60
Pinnacle
3.57
Dafabet
3.55
10Bet
3.55
Genk win
31.1%
Avg Implied 34.7% · @ 2.70
Edge
-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.82
1xBet
2.81
Pinnacle
2.80
Dafabet
2.75
Marathonbet
2.74
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Anderlecht
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.50
2.07
1.36
1.38
1.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.50
1.88
1.83
1.83
1.30
1.90
vs Weaker (14)
1.93
1.07
2.25
1.00
1.50
1.17
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Genk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Genk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.27
1.53
0.80
1.87
1.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.67
1.33
1.40
0.60
1.86
1.86
vs Weaker (18)
1.72
1.22
1.60
0.90
1.88
1.62
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Anderlecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.8%
@ 1.20+4.8%
Under 1.5
17.2%
@ 4.25-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
Under
Unibet
4.80
Pinnacle
4.31
10Bet
4.20
Betano
4.15
Marathonbet
4.10
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.2%
@ 1.68+3.8%
Under 2.5
39.8%
@ 2.16-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
10Bet
1.67
Under
Unibet
2.33
Betfair
2.20
Betano
2.18
10Bet
2.15
Pinnacle
2.14
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.8%
@ 2.66+2.7%
Under 3.5
62.2%
@ 1.44-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
2.75
Betano
2.75
Pinnacle
2.74
10Bet
2.70
1xBet
2.61
Under
Unibet
1.53
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
BetVictor
1.40
Both teams to score
Yes
62.9%
@ 1.53+2.6%
No
37.1%
@ 2.33-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.57
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.54
1xBet
1.54
10Bet
1.53
No
Unibet
2.48
Betano
2.35
1xBet
2.32
10Bet
2.30
BetVictor
2.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%@ 6.35+4.9%
2-1
9.1%@ 8.33+3.8%
1-2
7.6%@ 8.70+2.5%
1-0
6.5%@ 9.20+1.7%
2-2
6.4%@ 10.50+2.2%
2-0
6.4%@ 12.34+2.9%
0-0
5.5%@ 12.00+1.9%
0-1
5.2%@ 9.59+0.7%
Anderlecht goals ↓
Genk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
5.2%
4.5%
2.1%
0.7%
1
6.5%
12%
7.6%
3.6%
1.3%
2
6.4%
9.1%
6.4%
3.0%
1.1%
3
3.6%
5.1%
3.6%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.5%
2.2%
1.5%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Anderlecht goals (down), columns = Genk goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lommel United
2.67
Club Brugge KV
2.20
Union St. Gilloise
2.15
St. Truiden
1.77
Genk
1.46
Standard Liege
1.43
Anderlecht
1.38
Zulte Waregem
1.33
KVC Westerlo
1.30
KV Mechelen
1.27
Charleroi
1.27
Gent
1.27
Antwerp
1.20
Kortrijk
1.16
Cercle Brugge
1.14
OH Leuven
1.00
SK Beveren
0.99
RAAL La Louvière
0.94
Anderlecht is 0.09 points worse than Genk in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.46).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Lommel United
2.33
Club Brugge KV
2.27
Union St. Gilloise
1.65
St. Truiden
1.52
Anderlecht
1.48
Zulte Waregem
1.47
Cercle Brugge
1.47
Genk
1.39
Gent
1.29
KVC Westerlo
1.25
Charleroi
1.25
Kortrijk
1.20
KV Mechelen
1.20
Standard Liege
1.10
Antwerp
1.07
OH Leuven
1.02
SK Beveren
1.02
RAAL La Louvière
0.97
Anderlecht is 0.08 goals better than Genk in terms of goals scored per game (1.48 vs 1.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Union St. Gilloise
0.68
Lommel United
0.83
Club Brugge KV
1.12
Standard Liege
1.15
St. Truiden
1.15
Antwerp
1.20
Charleroi
1.25
Genk
1.29
RAAL La Louvière
1.39
Gent
1.39
KVC Westerlo
1.43
Zulte Waregem
1.47
OH Leuven
1.50
KV Mechelen
1.52
Anderlecht
1.55
Kortrijk
1.59
Cercle Brugge
1.61
SK Beveren
1.87
Anderlecht is 0.26 goals worse than Genk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.55 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Club Brugge KV
60%
Genk
58%
St. Truiden
55%
Anderlecht
53%
Union St. Gilloise
52%
Charleroi
50%
Antwerp
49%
KVC Westerlo
49%
KV Mechelen
49%
Gent
49%
Zulte Waregem
48%
Cercle Brugge
48%
OH Leuven
46%
Lommel United
45%
Standard Liege
44%
RAAL La Louvière
39%
Anderlecht is 5.4 percentage points worse than Genk in terms of average possession (53% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Anderlecht
For 6.7 · Against 3.1 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.1 · Against 11.9 · Total 26.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Genk
For 5.1 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 9.9 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Anderlecht
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.4
10.4
4.5
4.5
4.5
25.1
24.8
25.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
9.3
8.9
9.7
3.9
4.0
3.8
24.8
22.4
26.9
vs Weaker (26)
11.2
11.3
11.0
5.1
4.9
5.2
25.3
26.2
24.3
% over line
69%
71%
67%
66%
72%
60%
81%
81%
81%
% under line
31%
29%
33%
34%
28%
40%
19%
19%
19%
This opponent (Genk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Genk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
11.1
8.2
3.4
3.2
3.6
22.1
21.9
22.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
9.2
10.9
7.7
3.4
3.3
3.5
22.7
23.3
22.2
vs Weaker (29)
10.0
11.2
8.6
3.4
3.2
3.6
21.6
21.1
22.3
% over line
46%
67%
25%
42%
38%
46%
54%
50%
58%
% under line
54%
33%
75%
58%
62%
54%
46%
50%
42%
This opponent (Anderlecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
OH Leuven
11.1
Cercle Brugge
11.0
Charleroi
10.6
KVC Westerlo
10.6
Club Brugge KV
10.4
Anderlecht
10.3
Kortrijk
10.1
Gent
10.1
KV Mechelen
10.0
Standard Liege
10.0
Zulte Waregem
9.8
St. Truiden
9.8
Lommel United
9.8
SK Beveren
9.7
Genk
9.6
Antwerp
9.2
Union St. Gilloise
9.0
RAAL La Louvière
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Anderlecht
5.2
Union St. Gilloise
4.9
OH Leuven
4.8
SK Beveren
4.4
Standard Liege
4.3
Kortrijk
4.2
Lommel United
4.1
Antwerp
4.1
KV Mechelen
4.1
St. Truiden
4.0
Cercle Brugge
4.0
KVC Westerlo
4.0
Charleroi
3.9
RAAL La Louvière
3.9
Genk
3.7
Gent
3.7
Zulte Waregem
3.7
Club Brugge KV
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
OH Leuven
24.9
Anderlecht
24.9
RAAL La Louvière
24.6
Antwerp
24.1
Lommel United
23.9
Kortrijk
23.5
SK Beveren
23.3
KVC Westerlo
23.1
Zulte Waregem
23.1
Cercle Brugge
22.9
Genk
22.2
Standard Liege
22.1
Charleroi
21.9
KV Mechelen
21.9
Union St. Gilloise
21.8
Gent
21.2
St. Truiden
21.2
Club Brugge KV
20.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.3%
@ 1.47-15.2%
Under 9.5
52.7%
@ 2.45+15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.47
Under
Unibet
2.45
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.8%
Under 3.5
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
59.4%
Under 21.5
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Anderlecht or Draw
68.9%
Avg Implied 65.0% · @ 1.44
Edge
+3.9%
43%
26%
31%
covers Anderlecht + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.49
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.44
William Hil
1.44
Anderlecht or Genk
74.3%
Avg Implied 73.6% · @ 1.27
Edge
+0.7%
43%
26%
31%
covers Anderlecht + Genk
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Draw or Genk
56.8%
Avg Implied 61.4% · @ 1.53
Edge
-4.6%
43%
26%
31%
covers Draw + Genk
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.55
10Bet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
William Hil
1.53
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Anderlecht over/under 0.5
Over
81.7%
@ 1.21+4.8%
Under
18.3%
@ 4.00-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.18
BetVictor
4.10
Unibet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Anderlecht over/under 1.5
Over
50.6%
@ 2.06+5.2%
Under
49.4%
@ 1.71-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.13
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
BetVictor
2.05
Betano
2.05
Under
Unibet
1.73
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.71
Anderlecht over/under 2.5
Over
24.2%
@ 4.35+2.9%
Under
75.8%
@ 1.18-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
1xBet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Under
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Anderlecht over/under 3.5
Over
9.3%
@ 9.60-0.5%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.04+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
10.50
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
9.00
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.02
Genk over/under 0.5
Over
75.7%
@ 1.23+0.7%
Under
24.3%
@ 3.71-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Under
Unibet
4.10
Betfair
3.75
Pinnacle
3.71
10Bet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.64
Genk over/under 1.5
Over
41.4%
@ 2.19-1.2%
Under
58.6%
@ 1.62+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.32
Marathonbet
2.27
BetVictor
2.25
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.20
Under
Unibet
1.72
Betfair
1.67
10Bet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Genk over/under 2.5
Over
17.0%
@ 4.77-2.4%
Under
83.0%
@ 1.15+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.20
1xBet
5.10
BetVictor
5.00
Betano
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Under
Unibet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
BetVictor
1.13
Genk over/under 3.5
Over
5.6%
@ 9.50-4.2%
Under
94.4%
@ 1.03+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
10.00
Betano
9.50
Unibet
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Anderlecht, so a minus line means Anderlecht give that many goals of a start and Genk receive them. At -1, Anderlecht must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Anderlecht win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Anderlecht)
Anderlecht -2
9.9%
@ 8.95+0.2%
Draw -2
13.3%
@ 6.20-0.6%
Genk +2
76.8%
@ 1.14+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
11.00
Unibet
9.50
Marathonbet
6.35
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
4.85
Away
Unibet
1.15
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
Handicap -1 (Anderlecht)
Anderlecht -1
23.2%
@ 4.51+3.5%
Draw -1
20.0%
@ 4.19-1.3%
Genk +1
56.8%
@ 1.51-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
4.55
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Draw
Marathonbet
4.30
Unibet
4.25
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Away
10Bet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Betfair
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Handicap +1 (Anderlecht)
Anderlecht +1
68.9%
@ 1.45+7.0%
Draw +1
16.5%
@ 4.42-3.8%
Genk -1
14.6%
@ 5.01-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.48
10Bet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Marathonbet
1.42
Draw
Marathonbet
4.65
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Unibet
4.20
Away
Marathonbet
5.45
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
4.60
Handicap +2 (Anderlecht)
Anderlecht +2
85.4%
@ 1.13+8.4%
Draw +2
9.3%
@ 6.52-4.1%
Genk -2
5.3%
@ 9.03-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.15
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
5.05
Away
Betfair
11.00
Unibet
9.50
Marathonbet
6.60
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Anderlecht
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.64
0.86
0.75
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.50
1.12
0.33
1.17
0.60
1.10
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.50
0.88
0.62
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Genk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Genk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.50
0.67
0.47
0.93
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.50
0.40
0.20
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (18)
0.94
0.50
0.80
0.60
1.12
0.38
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Anderlecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.5%
@ 1.31+3.4%
Under 0.5
25.5%
@ 3.23-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Under
Unibet
3.40
William Hil
3.30
Betfair
3.25
10Bet
3.25
1xBet
3.15
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.0%
@ 2.42+0.6%
Under 1.5
61.0%
@ 1.51-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.57
Pinnacle
2.53
William Hil
2.45
Marathonbet
2.44
1xBet
2.44
Under
10Bet
1.55
Unibet
1.54
Betfair
1.53
Betano
1.52
BetVictor
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.4%
@ 5.63-2.0%
Under 2.5
85.6%
@ 1.10+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.80
1xBet
5.80
William Hil
5.80
Betano
5.70
Betfair
5.50
Under
Betfair
1.13
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Unibet
1.11
1xBet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Anderlecht over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.5%
@ 1.88+1.0%
Under
49.5%
@ 1.84-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathonbet
1.87
Unibet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.87
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Unibet
1.85
Betano
1.82
Anderlecht over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.6%
@ 5.63-2.9%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.11+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Marathonbet
5.90
Unibet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Betano
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Anderlecht over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.1%
@ 14.00-4.7%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Genk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.5%
@ 1.95+1.9%
Under
50.5%
@ 1.77-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.03
Marathonbet
1.98
10Bet
1.91
Unibet
1.87
Under
Unibet
1.84
1xBet
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.74
Betano
1.72
Genk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.1%
@ 5.89-1.6%
Under
85.9%
@ 1.10+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.55
Betano
6.00
1xBet
6.00
10Bet
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Under
Unibet
1.12
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
Genk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.3%
@ 15.50-3.8%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Anderlecht
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.67
1.43
0.50
0.62
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.75
1.50
0.67
0.70
0.80
vs Weaker (14)
1.00
0.57
1.38
0.38
0.50
0.83
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Genk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Genk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.77
0.87
0.33
0.93
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.08
0.83
1.00
0.40
1.14
1.14
vs Weaker (18)
0.78
0.72
0.80
0.30
0.75
1.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Anderlecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.5%
@ 1.17+1.1%
Under 0.5
19.5%
@ 4.49-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Under
Unibet
4.90
Marathonbet
4.45
Betano
4.45
1xBet
4.45
William Hil
4.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
53.4%
@ 1.87+3.3%
Under 1.5
46.6%
@ 1.88-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
William Hil
1.91
Betano
1.87
Unibet
1.73
Under
Unibet
2.00
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
William Hil
1.83
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.2%
@ 3.69-3.9%
Under 2.5
78.8%
@ 1.24+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.90
1xBet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.85
Betano
3.55
Unibet
3.30
Under
Unibet
1.29
Betano
1.28
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Anderlecht over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.7%
@ 1.62-2.6%
Under
45.3%
@ 2.17+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.62
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Under
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.16
10Bet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
Anderlecht over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.2%
@ 3.99-3.0%
Under
79.8%
@ 1.20+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.20
10Bet
4.00
1xBet
4.00
Betano
3.75
Under
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Anderlecht over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.6%
@ 9.88-4.9%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.03+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
11.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.02
Genk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
56.1%
@ 1.68+0.9%
Under
43.9%
@ 2.06-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.69
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Under
Betano
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Genk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.8%
@ 4.41-1.2%
Under
80.2%
@ 1.17+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.70
1xBet
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Betano
4.10
Under
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
Genk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.0%
@ 10.25-5.1%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.03+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
11.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.7%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.8%
Under 6.5
96.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.2%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.1%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.4%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.9%
Away under 3.5 goals
94.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.01
-
-
+4.2%
Home under 3.5 goals
90.7%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.02
-
-
+0.5%
Under 5.5
90.4%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.06
BetVictor
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
+1.0%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.4%
1.11
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
+2.9%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
85.9%
1.10
Unibet
1.12
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
+1.6%
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.6%
1.10
Betfair
1.13
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Unibet
1.11
1xBet
1.07
+2.0%
Home +2 handicap
85.4%
1.13
Unibet
1.15
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
-
-
+8.4%
Away under 2.5 goals
83.0%
1.15
Unibet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
BetVictor
1.13
+2.4%
Over 1.5
82.8%
1.20
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
+4.8%
Home over 0.5 goals
81.7%
1.21
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
Betfair
1.20
+4.8%
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.5%
1.17
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
+1.1%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.2%
1.17
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
-
+1.2%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.8%
1.20
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
-
+3.0%
Under 4.5
79.6%
1.16
Unibet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Pinnacle
1.18
10Bet
1.18
BetVictor
1.13
-1.0%
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.8%
1.24
Unibet
1.29
Betano
1.28
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
+3.9%
Over 2.5 cards
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
76.8%
1.14
Unibet
1.15
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
-
-
+0.5%
Under 5.5 cards
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
75.8%
1.18
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
Betfair
1.17
-2.9%
Away over 0.5 goals
75.7%
1.23
Betano
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
+0.7%
Under 11.5 corners
75.6%
1.60
Unibet
1.60
-
-
-
-
+18.3%
Over 19.5 fouls
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.5%
1.31
Betano
1.37
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
10Bet
1.30
+3.4%
Home or Away
74.3%
1.27
1xBet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
+0.7%
Under 25.5 fouls
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Anderlecht
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joshua Nga Kana33%
D. Sikan25%
Ludwig Augustinsson0%
Colin Coosemans0%
Oliver Antman0%
Enric Llansana0%
Giulian Biancone0%
M. Kana0%
L. Pétrot0%
Moussa Ndiaye0%
Lukáš Ambros0%
Mihajlo Cvetković0%
A. Maamar0%
Noa Cobiella0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Giulian Biancone50%
M. Kana50%
Enric Llansana33%
D. Sikan25%
Ludwig Augustinsson0%
Colin Coosemans0%
Oliver Antman0%
L. Pétrot0%
Moussa Ndiaye0%
Lukáš Ambros0%
Mihajlo Cvetković0%
A. Maamar0%
Joshua Nga Kana0%
Noa Cobiella0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
A. Maamar50%
Ludwig Augustinsson0%
Colin Coosemans0%
Oliver Antman0%
Enric Llansana0%
Giulian Biancone0%
D. Sikan0%
M. Kana0%
L. Pétrot0%
Moussa Ndiaye0%
Lukáš Ambros0%
Mihajlo Cvetković0%
Joshua Nga Kana0%
Noa Cobiella0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
D. Sikan75%
A. Maamar25%
Ludwig Augustinsson0%
Colin Coosemans0%
Oliver Antman0%
Enric Llansana0%
Giulian Biancone0%
M. Kana0%
L. Pétrot0%
Moussa Ndiaye0%
Lukáš Ambros0%
Mihajlo Cvetković0%
Joshua Nga Kana0%
Noa Cobiella0%
Genk
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rafiu Durosinmi100%
Josue Ndenge Kongolo67%
Junya Ito33%
Joris Kayembe33%
Ayumu Yokoyama33%
Aaron Bibout33%
Bryan Heynen0%
Daan Heymans0%
Zakaria El Ouahdi0%
Jeppe Erenbjerg0%
Ibrahima Sory Bangoura0%
Lucca Brughmans0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daan Heymans67%
Josue Ndenge Kongolo33%
Bryan Heynen0%
Junya Ito0%
Joris Kayembe0%
Zakaria El Ouahdi0%
Jeppe Erenbjerg0%
Ayumu Yokoyama0%
Rafiu Durosinmi0%
Ibrahima Sory Bangoura0%
Aaron Bibout0%
Lucca Brughmans0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jeppe Erenbjerg67%
Junya Ito33%
Ibrahima Sory Bangoura33%
Bryan Heynen0%
Daan Heymans0%
Joris Kayembe0%
Zakaria El Ouahdi0%
Ayumu Yokoyama0%
Rafiu Durosinmi0%
Josue Ndenge Kongolo0%
Aaron Bibout0%
Lucca Brughmans0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bryan Heynen0%
Junya Ito0%
Daan Heymans0%
Joris Kayembe0%
Zakaria El Ouahdi0%
Jeppe Erenbjerg0%
Ayumu Yokoyama0%
Rafiu Durosinmi0%
Ibrahima Sory Bangoura0%
Josue Ndenge Kongolo0%
Aaron Bibout0%
Lucca Brughmans0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (27)
€196m
GEN (30)
€113m
USG (26)
€98m
AND (32)
€91m
GEN (32)
€58m
SL (27)
€54m
KM (31)
€45m
CB (26)
€40m
KW (26)
€38m
ANT (24)
€33m
CHA (21)
€31m
OL (27)
€30m
ST (23)
€30m
LU (25)
€26m
RLL (30)
€23m
ZW (27)
€20m
KOR (24)
€18m
SB (24)
€12m
Anderlecht's squad is €22m less valuable than Genk's (€91m vs €113m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (10)
€92m
AND (12)
€50m
GEN (10)
€39m
USG (10)
€32m
CB (9)
€18m
GEN (11)
€17m
KW (11)
€16m
SL (9)
€14m
KM (9)
€13m
CHA (8)
€13m
ST (10)
€11m
ANT (10)
€9m
KOR (9)
€9m
ZW (10)
€8m
LU (10)
€8m
OL (8)
€7m
RLL (10)
€6m
SB (9)
€4m
Anderlecht's attack is €11m more valuable than Genk's (€50m vs €39m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
USG (7)
€38m
CBK (5)
€23m
GEN (8)
€22m
GEN (5)
€19m
AND (5)
€18m
LU (5)
€15m
ANT (4)
€10m
KW (5)
€9m
SL (7)
€8m
KM (7)
€7m
OL (6)
€6m
RLL (7)
€6m
CB (6)
€5m
ST (4)
€4m
CHA (5)
€4m
KOR (5)
€4m
ZW (4)
€4m
SB (5)
€3m
Anderlecht's midfield is €1m less valuable than Genk's (€18m vs €19m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (12)
€81m
GEN (15)
€55m
SL (11)
€31m
USG (9)
€28m
KM (15)
€25m
AND (15)
€24m
GEN (13)
€19m
OL (13)
€17m
CB (11)
€17m
ANT (10)
€14m
CHA (8)
€14m
ST (9)
€14m
KW (10)
€12m
RLL (13)
€11m
ZW (13)
€9m
KOR (10)
€5m
SB (10)
€5m
LU (10)
€4m
Anderlecht's defence is €32m less valuable than Genk's (€24m vs €55m).
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Jupiler Pro League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Charleroi
Gent
Union St. Gilloise
Club Brugge KV
Zulte Waregem
Standard Liege
Lommel United
Antwerp
St. Truiden
SK Beveren
Cercle Brugge
KV Mechelen
RAAL La Louvière
KVC Westerlo
OH Leuven
Kortrijk