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Annan Athletic vs Cowdenbeath Result & Analysis

Date: 30/09/2017
Time: 00:00
Final 1-0
Annan Athletic
Annan Athletic
Vs
44%
28%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Annan Athletic win✓ Hit
43.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath win✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L51W42W12L12L51W01L10W11D23LA·EDI22/04H·MON29/04A·FOR06/05H·PET05/08A·CLY12/08A·BER19/08H·MON26/08A·ELG09/09H·STE16/09A·STI23/09
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.601.791.071.752.06
vs Stronger (16)2.001.381.891.222.141.57
vs Similar (10)1.502.001.751.001.332.67
vs Weaker (4)1.501.501.000.001.672.00
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L11D00D11D10W01L01L01L04L11DH·ARB22/04H·FOR29/04A·ELG06/05A·ELG05/08H·EDI12/08A·MON19/08H·BER26/08A·STE09/09H·PET16/09A·CLY23/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.400.671.531.071.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.621.690.291.861.001.50
vs Weaker (17)1.061.181.001.251.111.11
Clean sheet %20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.6%
Under 1.5
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.3%
Under 2.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.5%
Under 3.5
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.5%
No
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0 ✓
9.7%
2-1
9.1%
0-0
8.6%
2-0
8.0%
0-1
7.1%
1-2
7.0%
2-2
5.1%
Annan Athletic goals ↓
Cowdenbeath goals →
01234
08.6%7.1%4.7%1.8%0.5%
19.7%14%7.0%2.6%0.7%
28.0%9.1%5.1%1.9%0.5%
33.9%4.5%2.5%1.0%0.3%
41.5%1.6%0.9%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Annan Athletic goals (down), columns = Cowdenbeath goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Montrose
2.14
Peterhead
2.11
Stirling
1.53
Stenhousemuir
1.50
Clyde
1.42
Elgin
1.36
Annan Athletic
1.31
Berwick
1.03
Edinburgh City
0.83
Cowdenbeath
0.61
Annan Athletic is 0.69 points better than Cowdenbeath in terms of average points per game (1.31 vs 0.61).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Peterhead
2.19
Stirling
1.69
Montrose
1.67
Stenhousemuir
1.56
Elgin
1.50
Clyde
1.44
Annan Athletic
1.36
Edinburgh City
1.03
Berwick
0.86
Cowdenbeath
0.64
Annan Athletic is 0.72 goals better than Cowdenbeath in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 0.64).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Montrose
0.97
Peterhead
1.08
Annan Athletic
1.14
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Clyde
1.39
Stirling
1.44
Cowdenbeath
1.56
Berwick
1.64
Elgin
1.69
Edinburgh City
1.72
Annan Athletic is 0.42 goals better than Cowdenbeath in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.56).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic

For 5.3 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.4

ðŸšĐ Corners

130526265475452677811119713A·STIH·STEA·ELGH·MONA·BERA·CLYH·PET
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.0

ðŸŸĻ Cards

60421111212432316223654A·STIH·STEA·ELGH·MONA·BERA·CLYH·PET
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 14.6 · Total 27.4

⚠ïļ Fouls

33011612211012171212211320151017332229333325A·STIH·STEA·ELGH·MONA·BERA·CLYH·PET
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

For 6.0 · Against 5.4 · Total 11.4

ðŸšĐ Corners

220715665383144511222128115913A·CLYH·PETA·STEH·BERA·MONH·EDIA·ELG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.3

ðŸŸĻ Cards

502311123321315125541A·CLYH·PETA·STEH·BERA·MONH·EDIA·ELG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 11.3 · Total 23.3

⚠ïļ Fouls

290101114111099141710111813621251923272919A·CLYH·PETA·STEH·BERA·MONH·EDIA·ELG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.410.78.50.60.40.727.429.026.2
vs Stronger (29)11.012.010.00.50.50.627.227.027.5
vs Similar (15)7.58.07.00.50.30.825.033.017.0
vs Weaker (6)7.0-7.00.80.01.233.0-33.0
% over line43%67%25%8%4%12%86%100%75%
% under line57%33%75%92%96%88%14%0%25%
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)11.410.712.00.50.40.523.325.721.5
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (25)10.211.59.00.50.50.523.524.023.0
vs Weaker (25)13.09.015.00.40.30.523.029.020.0
% over line57%67%50%8%8%8%57%100%25%
% under line43%33%50%92%92%92%43%0%75%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Cowdenbeath
11.4
Clyde
11.1
Berwick
10.3
Elgin
10.0
Annan Athletic
9.4
Edinburgh City
9.3
Stirling
9.1
Peterhead
8.4
Montrose
7.9
Stenhousemuir
7.0

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Clyde
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Edinburgh City
3.7
Peterhead
3.6
Elgin
3.4
Cowdenbeath
3.3
Berwick
3.1
Stirling
3.0
Montrose
3.0
Stenhousemuir
2.1

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Annan Athletic
27.4
Edinburgh City
26.9
Peterhead
26.3
Clyde
24.9
Stirling
23.3
Cowdenbeath
23.3
Berwick
22.7
Elgin
22.4
Montrose
22.0
Stenhousemuir
21.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
53.2%
Under 9.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.4%
Under 3.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
77.6%
Under 21.5
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L40W31W10W01L31W01L10W01L12LA·EDI22/04H·MON29/04A·FOR06/05H·PET05/08A·CLY12/08A·BER19/08H·MON26/08A·ELG09/09H·STE16/09A·STI23/09
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.901.070.500.941.25
vs Stronger (16)1.310.751.330.441.291.14
vs Similar (10)0.801.200.750.750.831.50
vs Weaker (4)0.250.750.000.000.331.00
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D00D11D10W01L01L01L03L00DH·ARB22/04H·FOR29/04A·ELG06/05A·ELG05/08H·EDI12/08A·MON19/08H·BER26/08A·STE09/09H·PET16/09A·CLY23/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.630.200.730.400.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.150.920.001.000.330.83
vs Weaker (17)0.410.410.380.500.440.33
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L11D11D02L11D20W00D00D10W11DA·EDI22/04H·MON29/04A·FOR06/05H·PET05/08A·CLY12/08A·BER19/08H·MON26/08A·ELG09/09H·STE16/09A·STI23/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.700.710.570.810.81
vs Stronger (16)0.690.620.560.780.860.43
vs Similar (10)0.700.801.000.250.501.17
vs Weaker (4)1.250.751.000.001.331.00
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-111D11D00D00D00D00D00D00D01L11DH·ARB22/04H·FOR29/04A·ELG06/05A·ELG05/08H·EDI12/08A·MON19/08H·BER26/08A·STE09/09H·PET16/09A·CLY23/09
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.770.470.800.670.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.460.770.290.860.670.67
vs Weaker (17)0.650.760.620.750.670.78
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards88.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls88.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls77.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards76.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.574.6%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.573.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners70.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MON (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
3
AA wins
1
Draws
0
COW wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Annan Athletic vs Cowdenbeath · H/A from AA
DateH/AGameScore
25/03/17HAA Vs Cowdenbeath1-0
18/02/17ACowdenbeath Vs AA0-1
10/12/16HAA Vs Cowdenbeath2-0
15/10/16ACowdenbeath Vs AA2-2

Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/09/17AStirling Vs AA3-2
16/09/17HAA Vs Stenhousemuir1-1
09/09/17AElgin Vs AA0-1
26/08/17HAA Vs Montrose0-1
19/08/17ABerwick Vs AA1-5
12/08/17AClyde Vs AA2-1
05/08/17HAA Vs Peterhead1-2
06/05/17AForfar Vs AA2-4
29/04/17HAA Vs Montrose5-1
22/04/17AEdinburgh City Vs AA2-0

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/09/17AClyde Vs COW1-1
16/09/17HCOW Vs Peterhead0-4
09/09/17AStenhousemuir Vs COW1-0
26/08/17HCOW Vs Berwick0-1
19/08/17AMontrose Vs COW1-0
12/08/17HCOW Vs Edinburgh City1-0
05/08/17AElgin Vs COW1-1
06/05/17AElgin Vs COW0-0
29/04/17HCOW Vs Forfar1-1
22/04/17HCOW Vs Arbroath1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Annan Athletic
Annan Athletic
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDL1.50
HomeWWLLD1.83
AwayWLWWL1.19
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%58%35%
AVG goals3.303.083.50
Over 1.5 %78%71%85%
Over 2.5 %64%58%69%
Over 3.5 %44%38%50%
Scored1.741.791.69
Conceded1.561.291.81
BTTS68%67%69%
Clean Sheet22%29%15%
Corners9.4310.678.50
Cards4.003.004.75
Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLD1.00
HomeLDWLL0.96
AwayDDLLD1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%28%24%
AVG goals2.362.202.52
Over 1.5 %66%64%68%
Over 2.5 %34%28%40%
Over 3.5 %20%16%24%
Scored0.960.801.12
Conceded1.401.401.40
BTTS44%32%56%
Clean Sheet24%24%24%
Corners11.4310.6712.00
Cards3.293.333.25

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1MontroseMontrose3677
64%
2.1
6035+25
2.6
69%
50%
28%
9.2
42%
3.1
36%
22.4
56%
0
0001.71.0
-
2PeterheadPeterhead3676
67%
2.1
7939+40
3.3
75%
61%
39%
9.4
42%
3.7
56%
26.9
86%
0
0002.21.1
-
3StirlingStirling3655
44%
1.5
6152+9
3.1
83%
67%
39%
9.7
50%
3.4
33%
23.4
67%
0
0001.71.4
-
4StenhousemuirStenhousemuir3654
42%
1.5
5647+9
2.9
86%
53%
31%
10.2
47%
3.0
36%
20.3
39%
0
0001.61.3
-
5ClydeClyde3651
39%
1.4
5250+2
2.8
78%
61%
31%
10.3
50%
4.0
58%
22.4
58%
0
0001.41.4
-
6ElginElgin3649
39%
1.4
5461-7
3.2
89%
61%
39%
10.1
64%
3.8
50%
22.0
50%
0
0001.51.7
-
7Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic3647
33%
1.3
4941+8
2.5
69%
42%
25%
8.9
33%
3.8
47%
23.9
75%
0
0001.41.1
-
8
B
Berwick		3637
25%
1.0
3159-28
2.5
64%
47%
33%
9.6
50%
3.1
36%
22.0
50%
0
0000.91.6
-
9Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City3630
19%
0.8
3762-25
2.8
81%
58%
28%
9.8
47%
3.2
47%
23.6
58%
0
0001.01.7
-
10CowdenbeathCowdenbeath3622
11%
0.6
2356-33
2.2
67%
33%
19%
8.7
36%
3.9
56%
23.6
61%
0
0000.61.6
-
Scotland: League Two 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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