Annan Athletic’s recent win over Dumbarton suggests a sharp start, yet the model still favours a home win with a 59% probability, a draw 21% and an away win 20%. The expected total of 3.6 goals points to a lively encounter, with the most likely total of three goals at 21%. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for the hosts, carrying a 9.5% chance. Annan, playing at home against a similar-strength side, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Edinburgh City, on the road, averages 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 87.8%, Over 19.5 fouls at 83.4%, Over 2.5 cards at 79.7% (miss), Under 11.5 corners at 79.0%, Under 5.5 cards at 74.4% and Over 21.5 fouls at 70.5%. These picks reflect the high-scoring, foul-heavy nature of the fixture.
Results analysis
The upset was immediate: Edinburgh City snatched a 2-0 away victory, extending their run of mixed results. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 59% probability, but the model’s call was wrong. The final score of 0-2 confirmed the away win. The model’s selections performed as follows: Over 1.5 goals hit with 87.8% confidence; Over 19.5 fouls hit at 83.4%; Over 2.5 cards missed at 79.7%; Under 11.5 corners hit at 79.0%; Under 5.5 cards hit at 74.4%; and Over 21.5 fouls hit at 70.5%. The match delivered more goals than the most likely 3-goal outcome, but the total fell short of the 3.6 expectation.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
59.0%
Avg Implied 32.3% · @ 2.84
Edge
+26.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.3%
Avg Implied 25.9% · @ 3.54
Edge
-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City win✓ Hit
19.8%
Avg Implied 41.8% · @ 2.19
Edge
-22.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.30
2.73
0.93
1.33
1.67
vs Stronger (21)
2.43
1.19
3.40
0.90
1.55
1.45
vs Similar (7)
1.14
1.57
1.50
1.00
0.67
2.33
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.30
1.93
0.67
1.47
1.93
vs Stronger (22)
1.68
1.45
1.73
0.73
1.64
2.18
vs Similar (6)
2.17
0.67
3.00
0.00
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.8%
Under 1.5
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
68.9%
@ 1.62+11.6%
Under 2.5
31.1%
@ 2.18-11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.5%
Under 3.5
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
65.6%
No
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.5%
1-1
9.2%
2-0
7.4%
3-1
7.2%
2-2
6.1%
1-0
5.7%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
5.3%
Annan Athletic goals ↓
Edinburgh City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.7%
2.8%
2.3%
1.0%
0.3%
1
5.7%
9.2%
5.3%
2.3%
0.7%
2
7.4%
9.5%
6.1%
2.6%
0.8%
3
5.6%
7.2%
4.6%
2.0%
0.6%
4
3.2%
4.1%
2.6%
1.1%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Annan Athletic goals (down), columns = Edinburgh City goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Cove Rangers
2.43
Edinburgh City
2.04
Elgin
1.54
Cowdenbeath
1.52
Queens Park
1.43
Stirling
1.29
Annan Athletic
1.15
Stenhousemuir
1.04
Albion Rvs
0.92
Brechin
0.63
Annan Athletic is 0.89 points worse than Edinburgh City in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 2.04).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cove Rangers
2.71
Edinburgh City
1.81
Elgin
1.71
Albion Rvs
1.42
Cowdenbeath
1.37
Queens Park
1.32
Annan Athletic
1.22
Stirling
1.21
Brechin
1.15
Stenhousemuir
1.14
Annan Athletic is 0.59 goals worse than Edinburgh City in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 1.81).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Edinburgh City
1.04
Elgin
1.21
Cove Rangers
1.21
Queens Park
1.25
Stirling
1.25
Cowdenbeath
1.30
Stenhousemuir
1.71
Albion Rvs
1.96
Annan Athletic
2.00
Brechin
2.22
Annan Athletic is 0.96 goals worse than Edinburgh City in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.04).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Annan Athletic
For 4.2 · Against 5.7 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 13.9 · Total 26.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Edinburgh City
For 4.6 · Against 3.5 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 12.2 · Total 24.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.2
10.6
3.9
4.4
3.3
24.3
26.0
22.8
vs Stronger (33)
10.2
9.3
10.9
3.9
4.3
3.5
24.3
26.1
22.6
vs Similar (13)
10.3
10.2
10.4
3.8
5.0
2.9
24.8
26.0
23.7
vs Weaker (4)
7.0
5.5
8.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
23.2
25.5
21.0
% over line
56%
46%
65%
54%
67%
42%
78%
88%
69%
% under line
44%
54%
35%
46%
33%
58%
22%
12%
31%
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.2
8.6
4.0
3.9
4.0
24.4
26.0
22.7
vs Stronger (34)
8.2
8.4
8.1
4.2
4.1
4.3
25.3
27.7
23.2
vs Similar (12)
10.2
10.4
10.0
3.4
3.4
3.4
24.0
23.9
24.2
vs Weaker (4)
10.2
11.0
9.5
3.8
4.5
3.0
17.8
20.5
15.0
% over line
42%
48%
36%
62%
64%
60%
70%
80%
60%
% under line
58%
52%
64%
38%
36%
40%
30%
20%
40%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.9
Stenhousemuir
10.9
Albion Rvs
10.6
Cove Rangers
10.1
Brechin
10.1
Annan Athletic
9.9
Elgin
9.9
Queens Park
9.7
Cowdenbeath
9.5
Edinburgh City
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cowdenbeath
4.1
Edinburgh City
4.0
Annan Athletic
3.9
Brechin
3.8
Queens Park
3.8
Stenhousemuir
3.7
Stirling
3.5
Elgin
3.4
Cove Rangers
3.3
Albion Rvs
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Edinburgh City
24.4
Annan Athletic
24.3
Cove Rangers
23.9
Cowdenbeath
23.6
Brechin
22.4
Albion Rvs
22.2
Stirling
22.0
Elgin
22.0
Queens Park
21.2
Stenhousemuir
20.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
43.0%
Under 9.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
61.5%
Under 3.5
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
70.5%
Under 21.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
1.13
0.47
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (21)
1.00
0.57
1.50
0.40
0.55
0.73
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.71
0.50
0.50
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.80
0.27
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (22)
0.77
0.64
0.82
0.36
0.73
0.91
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.70
1.60
0.47
0.87
0.93
vs Stronger (21)
1.43
0.62
1.90
0.50
1.00
0.73
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.86
1.00
0.50
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.77
1.13
0.40
0.93
1.13
vs Stronger (22)
0.91
0.82
0.91
0.36
0.91
1.27
vs Similar (6)
1.67
0.33
2.00
0.00
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Edinburgh City have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Edinburgh City have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Edinburgh City have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STE (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Edinburgh City have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Cove Rangers
Elgin
Cowdenbeath
Queens Park
Stirling
Stenhousemuir
Brechin