Annan Athletic’s low-scoring home form, with only 0.6 goals per game and conceding 1.8, contrasts sharply with Edinburgh City’s robust away attack, averaging 1.6 goals and only 0.8 conceded. The model projects a high-scoring affair, expecting 3.3 goals, and the most likely total is three, with a 22% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.1% probability. The match outcome favoured by the model is an away win, with probabilities of 35% for a home win, 25% for a draw, and 40% for an away win. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 86.7%, Over 1.5 goals at 84.9%, Under 5.5 cards at 79.4%, Over 21.5 fouls at 75.4%, and Over 2.5 cards at 75.3%. Edinburgh City, coming off a draw, looks poised to exploit Annan’s defensive frailties, while Annan’s recent win over Dumbarton may give them a spark, but the data points to a decisive away triumph.
Results analysis
The match saw Edinburgh City extend their recent run, coming off a draw, while Annan Athletic left the ground after a win. The model’s favourite was an Away win, with a 40% probability, and the prediction proved correct as the final score was 0-4 in favour of the visitors. The model’s selections were largely fulfilled: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 86.7%, Over 1.5 hit at 84.9%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 79.4%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 75.4% and Over 2.5 cards hit at 75.3%. The game’s outcome matched the model’s pick, confirming its accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
34.6%
Avg Implied 31.9% · @ 2.89
Edge
+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied 25.7% · @ 3.58
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City win✓ Hit
40.3%
Avg Implied 42.4% · @ 2.17
Edge
-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.97
1.73
1.67
0.87
2.27
vs Stronger (18)
1.72
2.06
2.44
1.67
1.00
2.44
vs Similar (11)
0.64
1.91
0.60
1.80
0.67
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
0.90
1.69
0.62
1.86
1.21
vs Stronger (19)
1.74
1.11
1.50
0.80
2.00
1.44
vs Similar (10)
2.00
0.50
2.40
0.20
1.60
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.9%
Under 1.5
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.6%
@ 1.71+9.0%
Under 2.5
36.4%
@ 2.05-9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.4%
Under 3.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
65.8%
No
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
1-2
8.6%
2-1
7.9%
2-2
6.8%
0-2
5.5%
0-1
5.4%
1-0
4.9%
1-3
4.9%
Annan Athletic goals ↓
Edinburgh City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.8%
5.4%
5.5%
3.1%
1.3%
1
4.9%
11%
8.6%
4.9%
2.1%
2
4.7%
7.9%
6.8%
3.9%
1.6%
3
2.4%
4.2%
3.5%
2.0%
0.9%
4
1.0%
1.6%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Annan Athletic goals (down), columns = Edinburgh City goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Queens Park
2.45
Stranraer
1.73
Edinburgh City
1.73
Elgin
1.73
Stirling
1.64
Stenhousemuir
1.18
Albion Rvs
1.14
Annan Athletic
1.00
Cowdenbeath
0.95
Brechin
0.45
Annan Athletic is 0.73 points worse than Edinburgh City in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.73).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Queens Park
1.95
Edinburgh City
1.82
Elgin
1.77
Stranraer
1.64
Stirling
1.45
Annan Athletic
1.14
Stenhousemuir
1.14
Albion Rvs
1.14
Cowdenbeath
0.68
Brechin
0.59
Annan Athletic is 0.68 goals worse than Edinburgh City in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.82).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Queens Park
0.59
Stirling
1.00
Stranraer
1.14
Annan Athletic
1.23
Edinburgh City
1.23
Elgin
1.27
Cowdenbeath
1.45
Stenhousemuir
1.59
Albion Rvs
1.73
Brechin
2.09
Annan Athletic and Edinburgh City are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.23).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Annan Athletic
For 4.5 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 12.5 · Total 25.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Edinburgh City
For 5.7 · Against 4.0 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 12.3 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.6
10.5
3.7
4.0
3.4
24.8
26.7
23.0
vs Stronger (32)
10.4
9.3
11.5
3.8
4.1
3.6
25.0
27.2
22.8
vs Similar (15)
9.6
10.1
9.1
3.5
3.9
3.1
24.5
25.7
23.4
vs Weaker (3)
8.3
9.5
6.0
3.7
3.5
4.0
25.0
26.0
23.0
% over line
56%
56%
56%
50%
52%
48%
76%
84%
68%
% under line
44%
44%
44%
50%
48%
52%
24%
16%
32%
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.0
8.9
3.8
3.9
3.6
23.0
25.0
20.9
vs Stronger (33)
8.7
8.9
8.6
3.7
3.7
3.8
23.8
26.4
21.1
vs Similar (14)
9.6
9.1
10.0
3.6
3.7
3.4
22.4
23.4
21.3
vs Weaker (3)
8.0
9.0
6.0
5.3
6.5
3.0
17.7
19.5
14.0
% over line
32%
35%
29%
56%
62%
50%
58%
69%
46%
% under line
68%
65%
71%
44%
38%
50%
42%
31%
54%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Brechin
10.9
Stirling
10.9
Albion Rvs
10.7
Stenhousemuir
10.6
Queens Park
10.3
Elgin
10.1
Annan Athletic
10.0
Stranraer
9.9
Cowdenbeath
9.6
Edinburgh City
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cowdenbeath
4.4
Stenhousemuir
4.0
Elgin
3.8
Edinburgh City
3.8
Annan Athletic
3.7
Queens Park
3.7
Stirling
3.6
Brechin
3.5
Stranraer
3.2
Albion Rvs
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Annan Athletic
24.8
Cowdenbeath
23.7
Edinburgh City
23.0
Albion Rvs
22.2
Stirling
22.1
Queens Park
22.0
Elgin
21.4
Stenhousemuir
21.0
Stranraer
21.0
Brechin
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
56.0%
Under 9.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
55.5%
Under 3.5
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
75.4%
Under 21.5
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.00
1.00
0.80
0.40
1.20
vs Stronger (18)
0.94
1.06
1.44
0.67
0.44
1.44
vs Similar (11)
0.27
0.91
0.20
1.00
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.30
0.56
0.25
0.50
0.36
vs Stronger (19)
0.63
0.32
0.50
0.30
0.78
0.33
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.20
0.80
0.00
0.00
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.97
0.73
0.87
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (18)
0.78
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.56
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.36
1.00
0.40
0.80
0.33
1.17
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.60
1.12
0.38
1.36
0.86
vs Stronger (19)
1.11
0.79
1.00
0.50
1.22
1.11
vs Similar (10)
1.60
0.30
1.60
0.20
1.60
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Edinburgh City have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Edinburgh City have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Edinburgh City have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STE (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Edinburgh City have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →