The model projects a high-scoring encounter with an average of 3.6 goals, pointing to a 3-goal total as most likely. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.9% chance. Annan Athletic, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded, while Forfar, on the road, averages 1.8 goals scored and only 1.2 conceded. The odds favour an away win at 40%, with a home win at 36% and a draw at 24%. The model’s selection is an away win. The only suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 87.9% probability. The match is expected to see both sides contributing to the tally, and Forfar’s stronger defensive record against similar teams gives them a slight edge. The final score of 1-2 confirms the predicted outcome.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on as Forfar edged Annan Athletic 2-1, a result that matched the favoured outcome. With a 40% pre-match probability, the away win call was correct, and the final score confirmed the actual result. The model also called Over 1.5 goals, a selection that hit with an 87.9% probability. Annan’s recent form, a win after a WLLWL run, was eclipsed by Forfar’s stronger away performance, where a 1-1 draw in the last game was followed by a victory. The predicted 3-goal total was close, but the match settled for three, with the most likely 1-2 scoreline realised.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
36.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Forfar win✓ Hit
39.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.70
1.93
1.47
1.73
1.93
vs Stronger (18)
1.94
1.33
1.78
1.11
2.11
1.56
vs Similar (8)
1.25
2.25
1.75
1.75
0.75
2.75
vs Weaker (4)
2.50
2.25
3.00
2.50
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.53
2.13
1.40
1.60
1.67
vs Stronger (20)
1.60
1.70
1.64
1.36
1.56
2.11
vs Similar (8)
2.38
1.12
3.33
1.00
1.80
1.20
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.50
4.00
3.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.9%
Under 1.5
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.9%
Under 2.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.5%
Under 3.5
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
69.9%
No
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.9%
1-2 ✓
8.2%
2-1
7.8%
2-2
7.1%
1-3
5.0%
0-2
4.7%
3-1
4.5%
2-0
4.3%
Annan Athletic goals ↓
Forfar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
4.3%
4.7%
2.9%
1.3%
1
4.1%
9.9%
8.2%
5.0%
2.3%
2
4.3%
7.8%
7.1%
4.3%
2.0%
3
2.5%
4.5%
4.1%
2.5%
1.1%
4
1.1%
2.0%
1.8%
1.1%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Annan Athletic goals (down), columns = Forfar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arbroath
1.83
Forfar
1.78
Annan Athletic
1.61
Montrose
1.44
Elgin
1.42
Stirling
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.19
Berwick
1.11
Clyde
1.06
Cowdenbeath
0.97
Annan Athletic is 0.17 points worse than Forfar in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 1.78).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Forfar
1.92
Elgin
1.86
Arbroath
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.69
Berwick
1.39
Stirling
1.39
Clyde
1.36
Montrose
1.22
Cowdenbeath
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.06
Annan Athletic is 0.22 goals worse than Forfar in terms of goals scored per game (1.69 vs 1.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arbroath
1.00
Edinburgh City
1.25
Elgin
1.31
Forfar
1.36
Montrose
1.47
Cowdenbeath
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Stirling
1.64
Clyde
1.78
Berwick
1.81
Annan Athletic is 0.25 goals worse than Forfar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.36).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Annan Athletic
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Forfar
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (35)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (35)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Not collected for this league yet.
🟨 Total Cards
Not collected for this league yet.
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.57
1.27
0.40
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (18)
1.11
0.44
1.11
0.56
1.11
0.33
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.88
1.50
0.25
0.25
1.50
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.83
0.73
0.87
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (20)
0.70
0.90
0.55
0.82
0.89
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.62
1.33
0.67
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.13
0.67
1.07
1.00
1.20
vs Stronger (18)
0.83
0.89
0.67
0.56
1.00
1.22
vs Similar (8)
0.38
1.38
0.25
1.50
0.50
1.25
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
1.75
1.50
2.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.70
1.40
0.53
0.80
0.87
vs Stronger (20)
0.90
0.80
1.09
0.55
0.67
1.11
vs Similar (8)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.33
1.20
0.60
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
3.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARB (15)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Forfar have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Forfar have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARB (5)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARB (7)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Forfar have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2016/17 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Arbroath
Montrose
Elgin
Stirling
Edinburgh City
Clyde
Cowdenbeath