The contest between Annan Athletic and Stirling is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win but the odds close enough that either side could prevail. The home side’s probability of victory sits at 41%, a draw at 27%, and an away win at 32%. The most likely outcome, according to the model, is a home win. The average number of goals expected is 2.9, with the single most probable scoreline 1-1, carrying a 12.6% chance. Annan Athletic, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Stirling, on the road, averages 1.0 goals scored and 0.75 conceded against comparable opposition. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 85.1%, Over 1.5 goals at 79.8%, Over 2.5 cards at 78.9%, Under 5.5 cards at 75.4%, and Over 21.5 fouls at 73.1%. Annan Athletic’s recent form shows a win after a mixed run, whereas Stirling comes off a defeat, adding another layer of uncertainty to the match.
Results analysis
Annan Athletic finished 2-3 against Stirling (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 41% home win, 27% draw and 32% away win. Picks that landed: Over 19.5 fouls (85%), Over 1.5 (80%), Over 2.5 cards (79%), Under 5.5 cards (75%), Over 21.5 fouls (73%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
41.5%
Avg Implied 37.4% · @ 2.45
Edge
+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied 26.8% · @ 3.42
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stirling win✓ Hit
31.7%
Avg Implied 35.8% · @ 2.56
Edge
-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.67
2.40
1.40
1.13
1.93
vs Stronger (21)
2.10
1.67
3.00
1.50
1.27
1.82
vs Similar (8)
1.00
1.62
1.20
1.20
0.67
2.33
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.93
0.87
0.87
1.07
1.00
vs Stronger (20)
1.05
0.95
1.00
1.00
1.10
0.90
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.62
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.8%
Under 1.5
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.5%
@ 1.70+0.9%
Under 2.5
44.5%
@ 2.05-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.2%
Under 3.5
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.6%
No
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.7%
1-0
7.4%
2-0
6.7%
0-0
6.6%
0-1
6.2%
2-2
6.0%
Annan Athletic goals ↓
Stirling goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
6.2%
4.9%
2.2%
0.7%
1
7.4%
13%
7.7%
3.5%
1.2%
2
6.7%
9.0%
6.0%
2.7%
0.9%
3
3.5%
4.7%
3.1%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.4%
1.8%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Annan Athletic goals (down), columns = Stirling goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Cove Rangers
2.43
Edinburgh City
2.04
Elgin
1.54
Cowdenbeath
1.52
Queens Park
1.43
Stirling
1.29
Annan Athletic
1.15
Stenhousemuir
1.04
Albion Rvs
0.92
Brechin
0.63
Annan Athletic is 0.14 points worse than Stirling in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cove Rangers
2.71
Edinburgh City
1.81
Elgin
1.71
Albion Rvs
1.42
Cowdenbeath
1.37
Queens Park
1.32
Annan Athletic
1.22
Stirling
1.21
Brechin
1.15
Stenhousemuir
1.14
Annan Athletic is 0.01 goals better than Stirling in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 1.21).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Edinburgh City
1.04
Elgin
1.21
Cove Rangers
1.21
Queens Park
1.25
Stirling
1.25
Cowdenbeath
1.30
Stenhousemuir
1.71
Albion Rvs
1.96
Annan Athletic
2.00
Brechin
2.22
Annan Athletic is 0.75 goals worse than Stirling in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Annan Athletic
For 4.4 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 14.4 · Total 28.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
For 5.2 · Against 7.4 · Total 12.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 8.8 · Total 20.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.4
10.8
3.9
4.2
3.5
24.5
26.0
22.9
vs Stronger (34)
10.3
9.4
11.2
4.0
4.2
3.8
24.5
26.2
22.8
vs Similar (13)
10.2
10.0
10.3
3.6
4.6
2.5
25.2
26.1
24.0
vs Weaker (3)
7.3
5.0
8.5
3.3
3.0
3.5
21.7
23.0
21.0
% over line
52%
44%
60%
52%
60%
44%
78%
88%
68%
% under line
48%
56%
40%
48%
40%
56%
22%
12%
32%
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.1
10.5
3.5
3.2
3.9
22.2
21.8
22.5
vs Stronger (34)
11.1
11.4
10.8
3.3
3.1
3.4
21.4
21.3
21.5
vs Similar (13)
10.4
11.0
9.7
4.2
3.1
5.3
25.2
23.6
27.2
vs Weaker (3)
9.3
6.0
11.0
4.0
5.0
3.5
17.7
19.0
17.0
% over line
62%
68%
56%
52%
48%
56%
58%
48%
68%
% under line
38%
32%
44%
48%
52%
44%
42%
52%
32%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albion Rvs
11.0
Stirling
10.8
Stenhousemuir
10.8
Brechin
10.4
Cove Rangers
10.1
Annan Athletic
10.1
Queens Park
9.7
Elgin
9.5
Cowdenbeath
9.3
Edinburgh City
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cowdenbeath
4.2
Stenhousemuir
3.9
Brechin
3.9
Annan Athletic
3.9
Queens Park
3.8
Edinburgh City
3.8
Elgin
3.5
Stirling
3.5
Cove Rangers
3.5
Albion Rvs
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Annan Athletic
24.5
Edinburgh City
23.8
Cowdenbeath
23.8
Cove Rangers
23.4
Albion Rvs
22.5
Stirling
22.2
Brechin
22.1
Elgin
21.9
Queens Park
21.7
Stenhousemuir
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
54.1%
Under 9.5
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
60.4%
Under 3.5
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
73.1%
Under 21.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
1.07
0.53
0.33
0.93
vs Stronger (21)
0.86
0.81
1.40
0.60
0.36
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.62
0.40
0.40
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.30
0.33
0.47
0.60
0.13
vs Stronger (20)
0.55
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.70
0.10
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.12
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.93
1.33
0.87
0.80
1.00
vs Stronger (21)
1.24
0.86
1.60
0.90
0.91
0.82
vs Similar (8)
0.62
1.00
0.80
0.80
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.63
0.53
0.40
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (20)
0.50
0.65
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stirling have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stirling have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stirling have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STE (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stirling have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Cove Rangers
Edinburgh City
Elgin
Cowdenbeath
Queens Park
Stenhousemuir
Brechin