Annan Athletic face a clear favourite in Stirling, whose away form shows a strong 54% chance of victory. The model predicts a 2.9-goal average, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 24%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with an 11.8% chance, though the final result will likely be a 1-2 win for Stirling. Annan’s home form shows they average 0.5 goals scored and concede 3.0 against similar opponents, while Stirling’s away numbers boast 2.17 goals scored and only 1.33 conceded. The suggested picks are: Over 1.5 goals at 80.1% (hit), Under 11.5 corners at 75.1% (hit), Under 5.5 cards at 72.0% (hit), Over 2.5 cards at 81.5% (hit), Over 19.5 fouls at 89.5% (miss), and Over 21.5 fouls at 79.6% (miss). Home win probability is 21%, draw 25%, and away win 54%.
Results analysis
The match finished 1-2 in favour of Stirling, confirming the model’s pre-match pick of an away win at 54% probability. Annan Athletic, coming off a win, had a modest home form of 0.5 goals scored and 3.0 conceded, while Stirling’s away form showed 2.17 scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s selection of an away victory was correct. Among the suggested picks, Over 2.5 cards hit at 81.5%, Over 1.5 goals hit at 80.1%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 75.1%, and Under 5.5 cards hit at 72.0%. Over 19.5 fouls missed at 89.5%, and Over 21.5 fouls missed at 79.6%. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 was not achieved, but the overall model call proved accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
21.4%
Avg Implied 28.0% · @ 3.29
Edge
-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied 26.3% · @ 3.51
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stirling win✓ Hit
53.6%
Avg Implied 45.7% · @ 2.02
Edge
+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.83
1.47
2.07
0.80
1.60
vs Stronger (18)
1.44
1.72
1.90
1.80
0.88
1.62
vs Similar (10)
0.70
2.10
0.50
3.00
0.83
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.20
0.93
1.43
2.06
1.00
vs Stronger (19)
1.53
1.42
1.00
2.11
2.00
0.80
vs Similar (11)
1.55
0.82
0.80
0.20
2.17
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.1%
Under 1.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.1%
@ 1.87+5.9%
Under 2.5
43.9%
@ 1.88-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.7%
Under 3.5
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.0%
No
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
1-2 ✓
9.8%
0-2
9.0%
0-1
8.7%
0-0
6.4%
1-3
6.0%
2-1
5.9%
0-3
5.5%
Annan Athletic goals ↓
Stirling goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
8.7%
9.0%
5.5%
2.5%
1
4.8%
12%
9.8%
6.0%
2.8%
2
3.2%
5.9%
5.4%
3.3%
1.5%
3
1.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.2%
0.6%
4
0.3%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Annan Athletic goals (down), columns = Stirling goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Queens Park
2.45
Stranraer
1.73
Edinburgh City
1.73
Elgin
1.73
Stirling
1.64
Stenhousemuir
1.18
Albion Rvs
1.14
Annan Athletic
1.00
Cowdenbeath
0.95
Brechin
0.45
Annan Athletic is 0.64 points worse than Stirling in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Queens Park
1.95
Edinburgh City
1.82
Elgin
1.77
Stranraer
1.64
Stirling
1.45
Annan Athletic
1.14
Albion Rvs
1.14
Stenhousemuir
1.14
Cowdenbeath
0.68
Brechin
0.59
Annan Athletic is 0.32 goals worse than Stirling in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.45).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Queens Park
0.59
Stirling
1.00
Stranraer
1.14
Annan Athletic
1.23
Edinburgh City
1.23
Elgin
1.27
Cowdenbeath
1.45
Stenhousemuir
1.59
Albion Rvs
1.73
Brechin
2.09
Annan Athletic is 0.23 goals worse than Stirling in terms of goals conceded per game (1.23 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Annan Athletic
For 3.9 · Against 4.7 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 12.6 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
For 6.0 · Against 4.2 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 12.8 · Total 25.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.4
10.0
3.7
4.1
3.3
25.0
27.7
22.5
vs Stronger (32)
9.8
8.7
10.8
3.7
4.1
3.3
25.2
28.7
22.1
vs Similar (15)
9.3
10.0
8.6
3.7
4.0
3.3
24.3
25.6
22.9
vs Weaker (3)
10.0
14.0
8.0
3.7
4.0
3.5
26.3
29.0
25.0
% over line
48%
46%
50%
54%
58%
50%
74%
88%
62%
% under line
52%
54%
50%
46%
42%
50%
26%
12%
38%
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.8
10.8
3.9
3.4
4.4
22.9
22.2
23.5
vs Stronger (33)
10.5
10.6
10.2
3.7
3.5
4.0
23.0
22.8
23.2
vs Similar (16)
11.4
11.3
11.4
4.3
3.1
5.2
23.4
20.9
25.4
vs Weaker (1)
13.0
-
13.0
3.0
-
3.0
9.0
-
9.0
% over line
64%
71%
58%
60%
50%
69%
64%
54%
73%
% under line
36%
29%
42%
40%
50%
31%
36%
46%
27%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.8
Albion Rvs
10.7
Brechin
10.5
Stenhousemuir
10.1
Elgin
10.0
Queens Park
10.0
Cowdenbeath
10.0
Stranraer
9.7
Annan Athletic
9.7
Edinburgh City
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cowdenbeath
4.4
Elgin
4.2
Stenhousemuir
4.1
Stirling
3.9
Edinburgh City
3.9
Queens Park
3.8
Annan Athletic
3.7
Brechin
3.4
Albion Rvs
3.4
Stranraer
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Annan Athletic
25.0
Cowdenbeath
23.9
Edinburgh City
23.3
Stirling
22.9
Albion Rvs
22.7
Queens Park
22.6
Elgin
22.1
Stenhousemuir
21.8
Stranraer
21.7
Brechin
20.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
47.9%
Under 9.5
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
64.1%
Under 3.5
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
79.6%
Under 21.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.87
0.73
0.93
0.27
0.80
vs Stronger (18)
0.67
0.83
1.00
0.70
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.20
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.36
0.71
1.25
0.38
vs Stronger (19)
0.79
0.79
0.33
1.11
1.20
0.50
vs Similar (11)
0.91
0.09
0.40
0.00
1.33
0.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.97
0.73
1.13
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (18)
0.78
0.89
0.90
1.10
0.62
0.62
vs Similar (10)
0.50
1.10
0.50
1.50
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.67
0.57
0.71
0.81
0.62
vs Stronger (19)
0.74
0.63
0.67
1.00
0.80
0.30
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.73
0.40
0.20
0.83
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stirling have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stirling have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stirling have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STE (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Stirling have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →