This match between Antwerp and Genk is finely balanced, with the recent form of both teams making it difficult to predict the outcome. Antwerp is on a 3-game winning run, but Genk is coming off a win and has shown resilience in its recent form. The model's selection is the away win, with a 40% chance of success, while Antwerp has a 33% chance of winning and a 27% chance of drawing.
The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12.9%. Antwerp's home form is relatively modest, scoring an average of 1.2 goals and conceding 1.4 goals per game against teams of similar strength. Genk's away form is slightly more impressive, scoring 1.8 goals and conceding 1.6 goals per game against teams of similar strength.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 goals, with a 78.7% chance of occurring, and Home or Away, with a 73.1% chance. Draw or Away is also a selection, with a 70.5% chance.
Results analysis
The 4-4 draw stunned Antwerp’s supporters, as the pre-match favourite - a home win with a 36% probability - failed to materialise. Antwerp’s unbeaten run in the last five matches, including the 4-4 encounter with Genk, had suggested a strong finish, yet the game ended in a stalemate. The model’s call was wrong, and the final score of 4-4 confirmed the unexpected outcome. Among the suggested picks, Under 7.5 (99.1%) missed, Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.9%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.9%) hit, Under 6.5 (97.3%) missed, Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.5%) missed, Home under 3.5 goals (95.9%) missed, Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.6%) missed, and Under 5.5 (92.8%) missed. The match delivered a surprising draw, defying the model’s expectations.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Antwerp win✗ Miss
35.8%
Avg Implied 29.0% · @ 3.23
Edge
+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.41
1xBet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.32
Superbet
3.30
Dafabet
3.25
Draw✓ Hit
27.9%
Avg Implied 27.1% · @ 3.45
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.60
Pinnacle
3.57
Betano
3.55
Dafabet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Genk win✗ Miss
36.3%
Avg Implied 43.9% · @ 2.13
Edge
-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.20
Unibet
2.18
Betano
2.18
Superbet
2.17
Pinnacle
2.17
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Antwerp
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.30
1.25
1.56
1.29
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (17)
1.24
1.47
1.10
2.00
1.43
0.71
vs Weaker (12)
1.33
1.00
1.50
0.83
1.17
1.17
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Genk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Genk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.37
1.47
1.13
1.67
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.58
1.42
1.67
1.33
1.50
1.50
vs Weaker (18)
1.56
1.33
1.33
1.00
1.78
1.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Antwerp) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.4%
@ 1.23+1.2%
Under 1.5
22.6%
@ 3.93-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.24
Under
Pinnacle
4.22
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.10
BetVictor
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.1%
@ 1.77-1.4%
Under 2.5
47.9%
@ 2.03+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.83
10Bet
1.83
Betano
1.78
SBO
1.78
Pinnacle
1.78
Under
Pinnacle
2.13
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.08
1xBet
2.07
Superbet
2.07
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.9%
@ 2.87-2.6%
Under 3.5
70.1%
@ 1.39+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.10
Unibet
3.10
Pinnacle
2.93
888Sport
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
Under
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.43
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.2%
@ 1.63+0.4%
No
42.8%
@ 2.15-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.67
888Sport
1.67
William Hil
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Unibet
1.63
No
Superbet
2.22
Betano
2.22
Betfair
2.20
BetVictor
2.20
1xBet
2.19
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%@ 6.22+6.2%
1-2
8.4%@ 7.90+2.8%
2-1
8.3%@ 10.24+4.0%
0-1
7.6%@ 7.89+2.0%
0-0
7.5%@ 10.36+3.3%
1-0
7.5%@ 9.99+3.1%
0-2
6.1%@ 10.09+1.7%
2-0
6.0%@ 16.05+3.2%
Antwerp goals ↓
Genk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
7.6%
6.1%
2.8%
1.0%
1
7.5%
13%
8.4%
3.9%
1.3%
2
6.0%
8.3%
5.7%
2.7%
0.9%
3
2.7%
3.8%
2.6%
1.2%
0.4%
4
0.9%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Antwerp goals (down), columns = Genk goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lommel United
2.67
Club Brugge KV
2.20
Union St. Gilloise
2.15
St. Truiden
1.77
Genk
1.46
Standard Liege
1.43
Anderlecht
1.38
Zulte Waregem
1.33
KVC Westerlo
1.30
KV Mechelen
1.27
Charleroi
1.27
Gent
1.27
Antwerp
1.20
Kortrijk
1.16
Cercle Brugge
1.14
OH Leuven
1.00
SK Beveren
0.99
RAAL La Louvière
0.94
Antwerp is 0.26 points worse than Genk in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.46).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Lommel United
2.33
Club Brugge KV
2.27
Union St. Gilloise
1.65
St. Truiden
1.52
Anderlecht
1.48
Zulte Waregem
1.47
Cercle Brugge
1.47
Genk
1.39
Gent
1.29
KVC Westerlo
1.25
Charleroi
1.25
Kortrijk
1.20
KV Mechelen
1.20
Standard Liege
1.10
Antwerp
1.07
OH Leuven
1.02
SK Beveren
1.02
RAAL La Louvière
0.97
Antwerp is 0.32 goals worse than Genk in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 1.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Union St. Gilloise
0.68
Lommel United
0.83
Club Brugge KV
1.12
Standard Liege
1.15
St. Truiden
1.15
Antwerp
1.20
Charleroi
1.25
Genk
1.29
RAAL La Louvière
1.39
Gent
1.39
KVC Westerlo
1.43
Zulte Waregem
1.47
OH Leuven
1.50
KV Mechelen
1.52
Anderlecht
1.55
Kortrijk
1.59
Cercle Brugge
1.61
SK Beveren
1.87
Antwerp is 0.09 goals better than Genk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Club Brugge KV
60%
Genk
58%
St. Truiden
55%
Anderlecht
53%
Union St. Gilloise
52%
Charleroi
50%
Antwerp
49%
KVC Westerlo
49%
KV Mechelen
49%
Gent
49%
Zulte Waregem
48%
Cercle Brugge
48%
OH Leuven
46%
Lommel United
45%
Standard Liege
44%
RAAL La Louvière
39%
Antwerp is 8.7 percentage points worse than Genk in terms of average possession (49% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Antwerp
For 6.8 · Against 4.0 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 9.7 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Genk
For 6.8 · Against 3.4 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 9.4 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Antwerp
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.0
9.5
3.8
4.0
3.6
24.3
24.4
24.2
vs Stronger (6)
8.3
5.3
11.3
3.3
4.0
2.7
23.8
21.7
26.0
vs Similar (26)
9.2
9.5
8.8
3.4
3.4
3.5
24.0
23.5
24.5
vs Weaker (18)
9.8
9.8
9.8
4.6
4.9
4.1
25.0
26.9
23.1
% over line
49%
43%
55%
50%
59%
39%
73%
74%
73%
% under line
51%
57%
45%
50%
41%
61%
27%
26%
27%
This opponent (Genk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Genk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
11.2
8.1
3.6
3.4
3.8
22.5
22.5
22.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
9.2
11.1
7.5
3.7
3.5
3.9
23.0
23.3
22.7
vs Weaker (28)
10.0
11.4
8.6
3.5
3.3
3.6
22.1
21.9
22.3
% over line
48%
71%
25%
46%
42%
50%
56%
54%
58%
% under line
52%
29%
75%
54%
58%
50%
44%
46%
42%
This opponent (Antwerp) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
OH Leuven
11.1
Cercle Brugge
10.8
Charleroi
10.7
Club Brugge KV
10.6
KVC Westerlo
10.6
Anderlecht
10.4
KV Mechelen
10.2
Kortrijk
10.2
Gent
10.1
Standard Liege
10.1
SK Beveren
10.0
Zulte Waregem
9.9
St. Truiden
9.8
Lommel United
9.6
Genk
9.6
Union St. Gilloise
9.3
Antwerp
9.3
RAAL La Louvière
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Anderlecht
5.3
Union St. Gilloise
4.9
OH Leuven
4.7
SK Beveren
4.5
Standard Liege
4.3
Kortrijk
4.3
Antwerp
4.2
St. Truiden
4.1
Cercle Brugge
4.1
Lommel United
4.0
KV Mechelen
4.0
KVC Westerlo
3.9
RAAL La Louvière
3.9
Charleroi
3.9
Zulte Waregem
3.8
Genk
3.8
Club Brugge KV
3.6
Gent
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
OH Leuven
25.2
Anderlecht
25.0
RAAL La Louvière
25.0
Lommel United
24.3
Antwerp
24.0
SK Beveren
23.6
Kortrijk
23.3
Cercle Brugge
23.1
KVC Westerlo
23.1
Zulte Waregem
23.0
Genk
22.5
Standard Liege
22.4
KV Mechelen
22.0
Charleroi
21.7
Union St. Gilloise
21.6
St. Truiden
21.3
Gent
21.1
Club Brugge KV
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
43.3%
@ 1.91-5.5%
Under 9.5
56.7%
@ 1.82+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
2.00
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.92
Under
Unibet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.83
Betano
1.80
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
58.0%
@ 1.58-0.8%
Under 3.5
42.0%
@ 2.26+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Unibet
1.42
Under
Unibet
2.60
Betano
2.12
Superbet
2.07
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
59.5%
Under 21.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Antwerp or Draw✓ Hit
56.4%
Avg Implied 55.8% · @ 1.68
Edge
+0.6%
36%
28%
36%
covers Antwerp + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
SBO
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Superbet
1.70
Antwerp or Genk✗ Miss
73.1%
Avg Implied 73.1% · @ 1.28
Edge
-0.0%
36%
28%
36%
covers Antwerp + Genk
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.31
Superbet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Draw or Genk✓ Hit
70.5%
Avg Implied 71.1% · @ 1.32
Edge
-0.6%
36%
28%
36%
covers Draw + Genk
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Unibet
1.33
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Antwerp over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.1%
@ 1.32+1.8%
Under
27.9%
@ 3.13-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
888Sport
1.33
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.35
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Betano
3.15
Antwerp over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
36.5%
@ 2.58+0.5%
Under
63.5%
@ 1.46-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.72
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.60
Unibet
2.60
Under
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Superbet
1.48
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Antwerp over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
13.8%
@ 6.13-1.3%
Under
86.2%
@ 1.09+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
888Sport
6.50
1xBet
6.30
10Bet
6.25
Unibet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Antwerp over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
4.1%
@ 15.88-2.0%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.02+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
888Sport
19.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.02
Genk over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.7%
@ 1.19+1.8%
Under
20.3%
@ 4.20-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.50
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.20
Genk over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
47.3%
@ 1.97-0.0%
Under
52.7%
@ 1.77+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.05
Unibet
2.04
Pinnacle
2.03
Betfair
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.81
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Genk over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
21.5%
@ 4.05-1.5%
Under
78.5%
@ 1.21+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.33
Unibet
4.30
Pinnacle
4.23
BetVictor
4.10
Superbet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Genk over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
7.8%
@ 9.14-2.4%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.04+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
10.00
888Sport
10.00
Betfair
9.50
1xBet
9.00
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Antwerp, so a minus line means Antwerp give that many goals of a start and Genk receive them. At -1, Antwerp must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Antwerp win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Antwerp)Actual: Genk
Antwerp -2
4.4%
@ 16.75-1.1%
Draw -2
8.7%
@ 9.25-1.2%
Genk +2
86.9%
@ 1.08+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
20.00
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
16.00
Unibet
14.00
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
9.00
Unibet
8.50
Away
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.09
Unibet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Handicap -1 (Antwerp)Actual: Genk
Antwerp -1
13.1%
@ 6.62-0.5%
Draw -1
16.4%
@ 4.80-2.3%
Genk +1
70.5%
@ 1.33+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.35
10Bet
6.25
Draw
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Unibet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Away
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.32
Betfair
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Handicap +1 (Antwerp)Actual: Antwerp
Antwerp +1
56.4%
@ 1.68+3.1%
Draw +1
20.8%
@ 3.85-2.5%
Genk -1
22.8%
@ 3.83-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.68
Betfair
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
10Bet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Away
Unibet
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Handicap +2 (Antwerp)Actual: Antwerp
Antwerp +2
77.2%
@ 1.22+3.2%
Draw +2
13.5%
@ 6.00-1.5%
Genk -2
9.4%
@ 8.13-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Draw
Superbet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Away
Betfair
8.50
10Bet
8.50
Unibet
8.50
Superbet
8.20
Bet365
8.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Antwerp
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.67
0.56
0.88
0.57
0.43
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.71
0.60
1.00
0.57
0.29
vs Weaker (12)
0.58
0.58
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Genk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Genk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.57
0.53
0.67
0.87
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.67
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (18)
0.78
0.50
0.56
0.67
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Antwerp) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.6%
@ 1.34+1.1%
Under 0.5
29.4%
@ 3.06-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.36
Unibet
1.35
BetVictor
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Under
Pinnacle
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Superbet
3.15
William Hil
3.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
34.4%
@ 2.58-1.6%
Under 1.5
65.6%
@ 1.46+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.70
Betano
2.67
10Bet
2.65
Pinnacle
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Under
Pinnacle
1.49
Superbet
1.49
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.4%
@ 6.03-3.0%
Under 2.5
87.6%
@ 1.10+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.40
Superbet
6.20
William Hil
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Antwerp over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
45.8%
@ 2.19+3.4%
Under
54.2%
@ 1.62-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.27
Betano
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Unibet
2.20
Superbet
2.17
Under
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Unibet
1.61
1xBet
1.61
Antwerp over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.8%
@ 7.00+0.6%
Under
86.2%
@ 1.07-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.20
Marathonbet
7.20
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Superbet
6.90
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
10Bet
1.06
Antwerp over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 21.83-2.3%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
29.00
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Genk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
47.2%
@ 1.86-2.8%
Under
52.8%
@ 1.86+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.87
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.95
Superbet
1.88
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
Genk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.1%
@ 5.22-6.6%
Under
88.9%
@ 1.12+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.10
1xBet
5.10
Superbet
5.10
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Genk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 14.58-4.5%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.02+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Antwerp
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.69
0.69
0.71
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.76
0.50
1.00
0.86
0.43
vs Weaker (12)
0.75
0.42
1.00
0.17
0.50
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Genk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Genk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.80
0.93
0.47
0.80
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.75
1.17
0.67
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (18)
0.78
0.83
0.78
0.33
0.78
1.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Antwerp) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.0%
Under 0.5
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
47.1%
Under 1.5
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
18.0%
Under 2.5
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Antwerp over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
55.8%
Under
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Antwerp over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
18.4%
Under
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Antwerp over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Genk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
51.0%
Under
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Genk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
16.4%
Under
83.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Genk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+1.9%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
95.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.02
-
+2.0%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
92.8%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
+2.0%
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
92.2%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
+2.4%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.9%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.6%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
86.9%
1.08
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.09
Unibet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.2%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
888Sport
1.10
+1.3%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.2%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
10Bet
1.06
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.6%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Pinnacle
1.16
888Sport
1.14
Bet365
1.14
+1.0%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
79.7%
1.19
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.8%
1.30
Unibet
1.38
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
+8.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
78.5%
1.21
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+1.5%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
77.4%
1.23
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.24
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.4%
1.44
Unibet
1.44
-
-
-
-
+13.5%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.2%
1.26
Superbet
1.26
-
-
-
-
+5.4%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
77.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.1%
1.28
1xBet
1.31
Superbet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
-0.0%
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
72.1%
1.32
Superbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
888Sport
1.33
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.33
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.6%
1.34
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.36
Unibet
1.35
BetVictor
1.35
Superbet
1.35
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
70.5%
1.32
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Unibet
1.33
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
70.5%
1.33
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.32
Betfair
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.1%
1.39
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.43
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
+2.6%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Antwerp
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Michael Frey33%
Taishi Brandon Nozawa0%
Thibo Somers0%
Rein Van Helden0%
Ibrahim Salah0%
Yuto Tsunashima0%
Eran Tuypens0%
Xander Dierckx0%
Luca Schelfhout0%
Modibo Fofana0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luca Schelfhout67%
Michael Frey0%
Taishi Brandon Nozawa0%
Thibo Somers0%
Rein Van Helden0%
Ibrahim Salah0%
Yuto Tsunashima0%
Eran Tuypens0%
Xander Dierckx0%
Modibo Fofana0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Thibo Somers33%
Michael Frey0%
Taishi Brandon Nozawa0%
Rein Van Helden0%
Ibrahim Salah0%
Yuto Tsunashima0%
Eran Tuypens0%
Xander Dierckx0%
Luca Schelfhout0%
Modibo Fofana0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Michael Frey33%
Taishi Brandon Nozawa0%
Thibo Somers0%
Rein Van Helden0%
Ibrahim Salah0%
Yuto Tsunashima0%
Eran Tuypens0%
Xander Dierckx0%
Luca Schelfhout0%
Modibo Fofana0%
Genk
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rafiu Durosinmi100%
Josue Ndenge Kongolo67%
Junya Ito33%
Joris Kayembe33%
Ayumu Yokoyama33%
Aaron Bibout33%
Bryan Heynen0%
Daan Heymans0%
Zakaria El Ouahdi0%
Jeppe Erenbjerg0%
Ibrahima Sory Bangoura0%
Lucca Brughmans0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daan Heymans67%
Josue Ndenge Kongolo33%
Bryan Heynen0%
Junya Ito0%
Joris Kayembe0%
Zakaria El Ouahdi0%
Jeppe Erenbjerg0%
Ayumu Yokoyama0%
Rafiu Durosinmi0%
Ibrahima Sory Bangoura0%
Aaron Bibout0%
Lucca Brughmans0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jeppe Erenbjerg67%
Junya Ito33%
Ibrahima Sory Bangoura33%
Bryan Heynen0%
Daan Heymans0%
Joris Kayembe0%
Zakaria El Ouahdi0%
Ayumu Yokoyama0%
Rafiu Durosinmi0%
Josue Ndenge Kongolo0%
Aaron Bibout0%
Lucca Brughmans0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bryan Heynen0%
Junya Ito0%
Daan Heymans0%
Joris Kayembe0%
Zakaria El Ouahdi0%
Jeppe Erenbjerg0%
Ayumu Yokoyama0%
Rafiu Durosinmi0%
Ibrahima Sory Bangoura0%
Josue Ndenge Kongolo0%
Aaron Bibout0%
Lucca Brughmans0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (27)
€196m
GEN (30)
€113m
USG (26)
€98m
AND (32)
€91m
GEN (32)
€58m
SL (27)
€54m
KM (31)
€45m
CB (26)
€40m
KW (26)
€38m
ANT (24)
€33m
CHA (21)
€31m
OL (27)
€30m
ST (23)
€30m
LU (25)
€26m
RLL (30)
€23m
ZW (27)
€20m
KOR (24)
€18m
SB (24)
€12m
Antwerp's squad is €80m less valuable than Genk's (€33m vs €113m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (10)
€92m
AND (12)
€50m
GEN (10)
€39m
USG (10)
€32m
CB (9)
€18m
GEN (11)
€17m
KW (11)
€16m
SL (9)
€14m
KM (9)
€13m
CHA (8)
€13m
ST (10)
€11m
ANT (10)
€9m
KOR (9)
€9m
ZW (10)
€8m
LU (10)
€8m
OL (8)
€7m
RLL (10)
€6m
SB (9)
€4m
Antwerp's attack is €30m less valuable than Genk's (€9m vs €39m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
USG (7)
€38m
CBK (5)
€23m
GEN (8)
€22m
GEN (5)
€19m
AND (5)
€18m
LU (5)
€15m
ANT (4)
€10m
KW (5)
€9m
SL (7)
€8m
KM (7)
€7m
OL (6)
€6m
RLL (7)
€6m
CB (6)
€5m
ST (4)
€4m
CHA (5)
€4m
KOR (5)
€4m
ZW (4)
€4m
SB (5)
€3m
Antwerp's midfield is €9m less valuable than Genk's (€10m vs €19m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (12)
€81m
GEN (15)
€55m
SL (11)
€31m
USG (9)
€28m
KM (15)
€25m
AND (15)
€24m
GEN (13)
€19m
OL (13)
€17m
CB (11)
€17m
ANT (10)
€14m
CHA (8)
€14m
ST (9)
€14m
KW (10)
€12m
RLL (13)
€11m
ZW (13)
€9m
KOR (10)
€5m
SB (10)
€5m
LU (10)
€4m
Antwerp's defence is €41m less valuable than Genk's (€14m vs €55m).
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Jupiler Pro League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Charleroi
Gent
Union St. Gilloise
Club Brugge KV
Zulte Waregem
Standard Liege
Lommel United
Anderlecht
St. Truiden
SK Beveren
Cercle Brugge
KV Mechelen
RAAL La Louvière
KVC Westerlo
OH Leuven
Kortrijk