Antwerp’s recent unbeaten run, highlighted by a 4-4 draw with Genk, sets the stage for a high-scoring encounter. The model projects a 46% chance of a home win, 25% for a draw and 29% for a St. Truiden victory, making a home win the favoured outcome. With an expected 3.2 goals, the most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.1% probability. Antwerp averages 1.2 goals scored and 2.1 conceded at home against similarly strong opponents, while St. Truiden, on the road, averages 2.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded versus comparable teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.1% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.6% with a 3% edge), Under 6.5 (95.8%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.0% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.9% with a 3% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (93.1% with a 1% edge) and Home under 3.5 goals (91.7% with a 1% edge).
Results analysis
The upset was immediate: Antwerp, the pre-match favourite, fell to a 1-4 loss, ending a run that had seen them win three of their last five. The model had tipped a home win with a 46% probability, but the prediction proved wrong. The final score of 1-4 gave St. Truiden the away victory. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 (98.4%) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.8%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.7%) hit, Under 6.5 (95.8%) hit, Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.3%) hit, Home under 3.5 goals (91.7%) hit. The only misses were Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.1%) and Away under 3.5 goals (93.1%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Antwerp win✗ Miss
46.0%
Avg Implied 39.9% · @ 2.35
Edge
+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.50
Pinnacle
2.43
1xBet
2.41
BetVictor
2.38
Betano
2.37
Draw✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.50
Edge
-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.67
Betano
3.60
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.60
Dafabet
3.60
St. Truiden win✓ Hit
29.0%
Avg Implied 33.4% · @ 2.80
Edge
-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.95
Dafabet
2.90
Betano
2.87
1xBet
2.87
Pinnacle
2.86
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Antwerp
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.33
1.31
1.62
1.29
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (17)
1.29
1.53
1.20
2.10
1.43
0.71
vs Weaker (12)
1.33
1.00
1.50
0.83
1.17
1.17
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (St. Truiden) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
St. Truiden
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.33
1.57
1.07
1.75
1.56
vs Stronger (13)
1.08
1.46
1.67
1.50
0.57
1.43
vs Similar (17)
2.12
1.24
1.50
0.75
2.67
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Antwerp) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.8%
@ 1.21+6.1%
Under 1.5
16.2%
@ 4.20-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.56
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Betano
4.15
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.8%
@ 1.70+6.3%
Under 2.5
38.2%
@ 2.12-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.80
Unibet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.72
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Under
Pinnacle
2.21
Betfair
2.20
Betano
2.18
SBO
2.16
1xBet
2.16
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.5%
@ 2.75+5.5%
Under 3.5
60.5%
@ 1.42-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.95
Unibet
2.95
10Bet
2.80
Pinnacle
2.80
Betano
2.75
Under
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.8%
@ 1.57+4.7%
No
36.2%
@ 2.26-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.64
Unibet
1.58
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
No
Betano
2.32
1xBet
2.32
Betfair
2.30
BetVictor
2.30
Marathonbet
2.28
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%@ 6.32+4.3%
2-1
9.3%@ 8.38+3.9%
1-2
7.2%@ 9.31+2.4%
2-0
6.6%@ 11.70+2.8%
2-2
6.5%@ 10.81+2.3%
1-0
6.4%@ 8.89+1.4%
3-1
5.5%@ 15.28+2.6%
0-0
5.1%@ 12.37+1.6%
Antwerp goals ↓
St. Truiden goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
4.7%
4.0%
1.9%
0.7%
1
6.4%
11%
7.2%
3.3%
1.2%
2
6.6%
9.3%
6.5%
3.0%
1.0%
3
4.0%
5.5%
3.9%
1.8%
0.6%
4
1.8%
2.5%
1.7%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Antwerp goals (down), columns = St. Truiden goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lommel United
2.67
Club Brugge KV
2.20
Union St. Gilloise
2.15
St. Truiden
1.77
Genk
1.46
Standard Liege
1.43
Anderlecht
1.38
Zulte Waregem
1.33
KVC Westerlo
1.30
KV Mechelen
1.27
Charleroi
1.27
Gent
1.27
Antwerp
1.20
Kortrijk
1.16
Cercle Brugge
1.14
OH Leuven
1.00
SK Beveren
0.99
RAAL La Louvière
0.94
Antwerp is 0.57 points worse than St. Truiden in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.77).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Lommel United
2.33
Club Brugge KV
2.27
Union St. Gilloise
1.65
St. Truiden
1.52
Anderlecht
1.48
Zulte Waregem
1.47
Cercle Brugge
1.47
Genk
1.39
Gent
1.29
KVC Westerlo
1.25
Charleroi
1.25
Kortrijk
1.20
KV Mechelen
1.20
Standard Liege
1.10
Antwerp
1.07
OH Leuven
1.02
SK Beveren
1.02
RAAL La Louvière
0.97
Antwerp is 0.45 goals worse than St. Truiden in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 1.52).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Union St. Gilloise
0.68
Lommel United
0.83
Club Brugge KV
1.12
Standard Liege
1.15
St. Truiden
1.15
Antwerp
1.20
Charleroi
1.25
Genk
1.29
RAAL La Louvière
1.39
Gent
1.39
KVC Westerlo
1.43
Zulte Waregem
1.47
OH Leuven
1.50
KV Mechelen
1.52
Anderlecht
1.55
Kortrijk
1.59
Cercle Brugge
1.61
SK Beveren
1.87
Antwerp is 0.05 goals worse than St. Truiden in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Club Brugge KV
60%
Genk
58%
St. Truiden
55%
Anderlecht
53%
Union St. Gilloise
52%
Charleroi
50%
Antwerp
49%
KVC Westerlo
49%
KV Mechelen
49%
Gent
49%
Zulte Waregem
48%
Cercle Brugge
48%
OH Leuven
46%
Lommel United
45%
Standard Liege
44%
RAAL La Louvière
39%
Antwerp is 5.6 percentage points worse than St. Truiden in terms of average possession (49% vs 55%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Antwerp
For 6.1 · Against 4.2 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 9.3 · Total 21.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
St. Truiden
For 5.3 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 8.4 · Total 18.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Antwerp
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.3
9.5
3.8
4.0
3.6
24.4
24.6
24.2
vs Stronger (5)
9.4
6.5
11.3
3.6
5.0
2.7
24.6
22.5
26.0
vs Similar (27)
9.1
9.4
8.8
3.3
3.2
3.5
24.0
23.5
24.5
vs Weaker (18)
9.8
9.8
9.8
4.6
4.9
4.1
25.0
26.9
23.1
% over line
49%
43%
55%
50%
59%
39%
76%
78%
73%
% under line
51%
57%
45%
50%
41%
61%
24%
22%
27%
This opponent (St. Truiden) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
St. Truiden
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.5
10.5
3.7
3.7
3.7
21.1
20.8
21.5
vs Stronger (18)
10.7
10.7
10.7
3.4
3.2
3.6
19.6
19.4
19.7
vs Similar (32)
9.6
8.7
10.4
3.9
3.9
3.8
22.1
21.5
22.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
54%
71%
48%
50%
46%
52%
50%
54%
% under line
38%
46%
29%
52%
50%
54%
48%
50%
46%
This opponent (Antwerp) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
OH Leuven
11.1
Cercle Brugge
11.0
KVC Westerlo
10.6
Charleroi
10.6
Club Brugge KV
10.5
Anderlecht
10.4
Gent
10.1
Kortrijk
10.1
KV Mechelen
10.0
Standard Liege
10.0
Zulte Waregem
9.9
St. Truiden
9.9
Lommel United
9.8
SK Beveren
9.7
Genk
9.6
Union St. Gilloise
9.3
Antwerp
9.2
RAAL La Louvière
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Anderlecht
5.3
Union St. Gilloise
4.9
OH Leuven
4.8
SK Beveren
4.4
Standard Liege
4.3
Kortrijk
4.3
Lommel United
4.1
KV Mechelen
4.1
Antwerp
4.1
St. Truiden
4.0
Cercle Brugge
4.0
KVC Westerlo
4.0
Charleroi
3.9
RAAL La Louvière
3.9
Zulte Waregem
3.8
Genk
3.7
Gent
3.6
Club Brugge KV
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
OH Leuven
25.0
Anderlecht
24.9
RAAL La Louvière
24.6
Antwerp
24.0
Lommel United
23.9
Kortrijk
23.4
SK Beveren
23.3
KVC Westerlo
23.1
Cercle Brugge
22.9
Zulte Waregem
22.8
Genk
22.2
Standard Liege
22.1
Charleroi
21.9
KV Mechelen
21.9
Union St. Gilloise
21.6
St. Truiden
21.2
Gent
21.1
Club Brugge KV
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.90
Superbet
1.85
Unibet
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.74
Under
Pinnacle
2.07
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.64
Betano
1.50
Unibet
1.46
Under
Unibet
2.48
Betano
2.45
Superbet
2.10
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Antwerp or Draw✗ Miss
65.0%
Avg Implied 66.7% · @ 1.41
Edge
-1.7%
46%
25%
29%
covers Antwerp + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.45
1xBet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
BetVictor
1.40
Antwerp or St. Truiden✓ Hit
74.3%
Avg Implied 73.5% · @ 1.27
Edge
+0.7%
46%
25%
29%
covers Antwerp + St. Truiden
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Draw or St. Truiden✓ Hit
60.7%
Avg Implied 59.8% · @ 1.57
Edge
+0.9%
46%
25%
29%
covers Draw + St. Truiden
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Unibet
1.58
SBO
1.58
Betfair
1.57
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Antwerp over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.3%
@ 1.21+3.7%
Under
19.7%
@ 3.99-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.38
Marathonbet
4.15
BetVictor
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Antwerp over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
48.4%
@ 2.08+3.4%
Under
51.6%
@ 1.70-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Pinnacle
2.14
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Under
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
10Bet
1.70
Antwerp over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
22.4%
@ 4.47+1.5%
Under
77.6%
@ 1.18-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.80
Pinnacle
4.59
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
Under
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.20
1xBet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
Antwerp over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.3%
@ 10.28-0.9%
Under
91.7%
@ 1.03+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Marathonbet
10.75
Unibet
10.00
1xBet
9.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Betfair
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
St. Truiden over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.3%
@ 1.26+4.5%
Under
21.7%
@ 3.54-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Under
Pinnacle
3.93
BetVictor
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
1xBet
3.56
Betano
3.55
St. Truiden over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
45.1%
@ 2.30+4.5%
Under
54.9%
@ 1.57-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Pinnacle
2.37
Marathonbet
2.31
Superbet
2.30
Under
Pinnacle
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
Superbet
1.58
St. Truiden over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
19.8%
@ 5.17+1.9%
Under
80.2%
@ 1.13-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.35
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.20
Under
Betano
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
St. Truiden over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
6.9%
@ 12.50-0.7%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.03+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Antwerp, so a minus line means Antwerp give that many goals of a start and St. Truiden receive them. At -1, Antwerp must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Antwerp win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Antwerp)Actual: St. Truiden
Antwerp -2
8.3%
@ 8.87-1.7%
Draw -2
12.1%
@ 6.26-2.2%
St. Truiden +2
79.6%
@ 1.17+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
10.00
Superbet
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.25
10Bet
6.00
Away
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Betfair
1.14
Handicap -1 (Antwerp)Actual: St. Truiden
Antwerp -1
20.4%
@ 4.34-0.4%
Draw -1
18.9%
@ 4.16-2.8%
St. Truiden +1
60.7%
@ 1.57+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.25
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
3.95
Away
10Bet
1.60
Unibet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Handicap +1 (Antwerp)Actual: St. Truiden
Antwerp +1
65.0%
@ 1.41+1.0%
Draw +1
17.7%
@ 4.57-2.0%
St. Truiden -1
17.3%
@ 5.54+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.45
10Bet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
Superbet
4.65
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Away
Unibet
5.80
Marathonbet
5.60
10Bet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Handicap +2 (Antwerp)Actual: St. Truiden
Antwerp +2
82.7%
@ 1.11+1.2%
Draw +2
10.6%
@ 8.00-0.7%
St. Truiden -2
6.7%
@ 12.67-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Draw
Unibet
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Away
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
12.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Antwerp
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.50
0.81
0.57
0.43
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.65
0.50
0.90
0.57
0.29
vs Weaker (12)
0.58
0.58
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (St. Truiden) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
St. Truiden
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.71
0.50
0.75
0.81
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
0.69
0.50
0.67
0.00
0.71
vs Similar (17)
1.12
0.65
0.88
0.38
1.33
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Antwerp) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.2%
@ 1.32+2.7%
Under 0.5
26.8%
@ 3.17-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.36
BetVictor
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Unibet
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.26
Betfair
3.25
10Bet
3.20
William Hil
3.20
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
38.4%
@ 2.50+1.0%
Under 1.5
61.6%
@ 1.49-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.60
Unibet
2.60
Betano
2.57
Pinnacle
2.56
Bet365
2.50
Under
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.3%
@ 5.92-2.4%
Under 2.5
86.7%
@ 1.10+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
6.30
Unibet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
William Hil
5.80
Under
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Antwerp over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
46.9%
@ 1.90-2.1%
Under
53.1%
@ 1.82+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.94
Unibet
1.91
Betano
1.91
10Bet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Antwerp over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.9%
@ 5.53-2.8%
Under
86.1%
@ 1.11+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.75
1xBet
5.75
Superbet
5.75
Unibet
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Antwerp over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 15.67-3.8%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
10Bet
17.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
St. Truiden over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
46.0%
@ 2.02+0.0%
Under
54.0%
@ 1.72-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.12
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.05
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
1.99
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
10Bet
1.75
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
St. Truiden over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.7%
@ 6.28-3.1%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.09+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.65
1xBet
6.65
Unibet
6.50
Superbet
6.10
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
St. Truiden over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 18.00-3.1%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Superbet
21.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Antwerp
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
0.81
0.81
0.71
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.88
0.70
1.20
0.86
0.43
vs Weaker (12)
0.75
0.42
1.00
0.17
0.50
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (St. Truiden) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
St. Truiden
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
0.86
0.57
1.00
0.75
vs Stronger (13)
0.85
0.77
1.17
0.83
0.57
0.71
vs Similar (17)
1.00
0.59
0.62
0.38
1.33
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Antwerp) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.3%
@ 1.18+0.7%
Under 0.5
20.7%
@ 4.33-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Under
Bet365
4.50
Betano
4.45
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.45
Unibet
4.25
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
49.2%
@ 1.89+0.0%
Under 1.5
50.8%
@ 1.83-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.97
Unibet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.87
Under
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
William Hil
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
20.0%
@ 3.82-4.3%
Under 2.5
80.0%
@ 1.23+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.00
Superbet
4.00
William Hil
3.90
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.75
Under
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Antwerp over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
56.1%
@ 1.62-1.1%
Under
43.9%
@ 2.16+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.69
10Bet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Under
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Superbet
2.05
Antwerp over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.7%
@ 4.00-2.4%
Under
79.3%
@ 1.20+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.35
Marathonbet
4.15
10Bet
4.00
1xBet
3.80
Betano
3.70
Under
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Antwerp over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 10.50-4.3%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.03+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
St. Truiden over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
52.8%
@ 1.72-1.1%
Under
47.2%
@ 2.01+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.73
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Under
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.03
Marathonbet
2.01
Superbet
2.00
10Bet
1.95
St. Truiden over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
17.9%
@ 4.52-2.6%
Under
82.1%
@ 1.16+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.50
1xBet
4.40
Betano
4.20
Under
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
St. Truiden over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
4.9%
@ 12.17-2.9%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.02+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.8%
1.01
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.3%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.1%
1.02
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+2.9%
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
93.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+0.7%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
91.7%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Betfair
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
90.0%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.3%
1.09
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.7%
1.10
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.1%
1.11
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.8%
1.21
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
82.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.10
-
-
+1.2%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.1%
1.16
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
+2.6%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
80.3%
1.21
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.20
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
80.2%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
-1.9%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.0%
1.23
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
+4.3%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
79.6%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Betfair
1.14
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.3%
1.18
Superbet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.18
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.3%
1.20
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
78.9%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Pinnacle
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.15
-2.8%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
78.3%
1.26
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
77.6%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.20
1xBet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.3%
1.27
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.2%
1.32
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.36
BetVictor
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Unibet
1.33
+2.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Antwerp
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Michael Frey33%
Taishi Brandon Nozawa0%
Thibo Somers0%
Rein Van Helden0%
Ibrahim Salah0%
Yuto Tsunashima0%
Eran Tuypens0%
Xander Dierckx0%
Luca Schelfhout0%
Modibo Fofana0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luca Schelfhout67%
Michael Frey0%
Taishi Brandon Nozawa0%
Thibo Somers0%
Rein Van Helden0%
Ibrahim Salah0%
Yuto Tsunashima0%
Eran Tuypens0%
Xander Dierckx0%
Modibo Fofana0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Thibo Somers33%
Michael Frey0%
Taishi Brandon Nozawa0%
Rein Van Helden0%
Ibrahim Salah0%
Yuto Tsunashima0%
Eran Tuypens0%
Xander Dierckx0%
Luca Schelfhout0%
Modibo Fofana0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Michael Frey33%
Taishi Brandon Nozawa0%
Thibo Somers0%
Rein Van Helden0%
Ibrahim Salah0%
Yuto Tsunashima0%
Eran Tuypens0%
Xander Dierckx0%
Luca Schelfhout0%
Modibo Fofana0%
St. Truiden
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
K. Matsuzawa33%
Ryan Merlen25%
I. Sebaoui25%
N. Ishiwatari25%
A. Sissako0%
J. Pupe0%
V. Musliu0%
L. Kokubo0%
T. Hata0%
R. Vanwesemael0%
Oumar Diouf0%
S. Shinkawa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
N. Ishiwatari75%
J. Pupe33%
A. Sissako25%
L. Kokubo25%
Ryan Merlen25%
R. Vanwesemael25%
V. Musliu0%
T. Hata0%
I. Sebaoui0%
K. Matsuzawa0%
Oumar Diouf0%
S. Shinkawa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
I. Sebaoui50%
Ryan Merlen25%
N. Ishiwatari25%
R. Vanwesemael25%
A. Sissako0%
J. Pupe0%
V. Musliu0%
L. Kokubo0%
T. Hata0%
K. Matsuzawa0%
Oumar Diouf0%
S. Shinkawa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
I. Sebaoui50%
Ryan Merlen25%
N. Ishiwatari25%
A. Sissako0%
J. Pupe0%
V. Musliu0%
L. Kokubo0%
T. Hata0%
R. Vanwesemael0%
K. Matsuzawa0%
Oumar Diouf0%
S. Shinkawa0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (27)
€196m
GEN (30)
€113m
USG (26)
€98m
AND (32)
€91m
GEN (32)
€58m
SL (27)
€54m
KM (31)
€45m
CB (26)
€40m
KW (26)
€38m
ANT (24)
€33m
CHA (21)
€31m
OL (27)
€30m
ST (23)
€30m
LU (25)
€26m
RLL (30)
€23m
ZW (27)
€20m
KOR (24)
€18m
SB (24)
€12m
Antwerp's squad is €3m more valuable than St. Truiden's (€33m vs €30m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (10)
€92m
AND (12)
€50m
GEN (10)
€39m
USG (10)
€32m
CB (9)
€18m
GEN (11)
€17m
KW (11)
€16m
SL (9)
€14m
KM (9)
€13m
CHA (8)
€13m
ST (10)
€11m
ANT (10)
€9m
KOR (9)
€9m
ZW (10)
€8m
LU (10)
€8m
OL (8)
€7m
RLL (10)
€6m
SB (9)
€4m
Antwerp's attack is €2m less valuable than St. Truiden's (€9m vs €11m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
USG (7)
€38m
CBK (5)
€23m
GEN (8)
€22m
GEN (5)
€19m
AND (5)
€18m
LU (5)
€15m
ANT (4)
€10m
KW (5)
€9m
SL (7)
€8m
KM (7)
€7m
OL (6)
€6m
RLL (7)
€6m
CB (6)
€5m
ST (4)
€4m
CHA (5)
€4m
KOR (5)
€4m
ZW (4)
€4m
SB (5)
€3m
Antwerp's midfield is €6m more valuable than St. Truiden's (€10m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (12)
€81m
GEN (15)
€55m
SL (11)
€31m
USG (9)
€28m
KM (15)
€25m
AND (15)
€24m
GEN (13)
€19m
OL (13)
€17m
CB (11)
€17m
ANT (10)
€14m
CHA (8)
€14m
ST (9)
€14m
KW (10)
€12m
RLL (13)
€11m
ZW (13)
€9m
KOR (10)
€5m
SB (10)
€5m
LU (10)
€4m
Antwerp and St. Truiden have a similar defence value (both €14m).
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Jupiler Pro League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Charleroi
Gent
Union St. Gilloise
Club Brugge KV
Zulte Waregem
Standard Liege
Genk
Lommel United
Anderlecht
SK Beveren
Cercle Brugge
KV Mechelen
RAAL La Louvière
KVC Westerlo
OH Leuven
Kortrijk