This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Morton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.90
1.44
0.94
1.07
0.86
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.75
0.50
2.50
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.31
0.77
1.57
0.71
1.00
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.0%
Under 1.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.5%
@ 1.71-12.2%
Under 2.5
57.5%
@ 2.06+12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.7%
Under 3.5
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.4%
No
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-1
11.6%
0-0
10.5%
0-2
9.0%
1-2 ✓
8.9%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
6.3%
2-0
4.5%
Arbroath goals ↓
Morton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
12%
9.0%
4.2%
1.5%
1
7.9%
14%
8.9%
4.1%
1.4%
2
4.5%
6.3%
4.4%
2.0%
0.7%
3
1.5%
2.1%
1.4%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arbroath goals (down), columns = Morton goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Dundee Utd
2.10
Raith Rvs
1.92
Raith Rovers
1.92
Partick
1.46
Airdrie United
1.40
Morton
1.35
Ayr
1.22
Ayr Utd
1.22
Queens Park
1.19
Queen's Park
1.19
Inverness CT
1.17
Dunfermline
1.12
Arbroath
0.65
Alloa Athletic
0.50
Montrose
0.50
Arbroath is 0.71 points worse than Morton in terms of average points per game (0.65 vs 1.35).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Alloa Athletic
2.00
Dundee Utd
2.00
Partick
1.81
Raith Rvs
1.61
Raith Rovers
1.61
Ayr
1.47
Ayr Utd
1.47
Queens Park
1.39
Queen's Park
1.39
Airdrie United
1.21
Inverness CT
1.19
Morton
1.19
Dunfermline
1.12
Arbroath
0.92
Montrose
0.00
Arbroath is 0.27 goals worse than Morton in terms of goals scored per game (0.92 vs 1.19).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Montrose
0.50
Dundee Utd
0.62
Morton
1.10
Inverness CT
1.15
Raith Rvs
1.17
Raith Rovers
1.17
Airdrie United
1.23
Dunfermline
1.35
Partick
1.54
Queens Park
1.56
Queen's Park
1.56
Ayr
1.69
Ayr Utd
1.69
Hamilton Academical
1.75
Alloa Athletic
2.50
Arbroath
2.54
Arbroath is 1.44 goals worse than Morton in terms of goals conceded per game (2.54 vs 1.10).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Arbroath
For 3.0 · Against 6.3 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.0 · Total 2.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 10.0 · Total 19.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Morton
For 5.2 · Against 3.5 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 11.5 · Total 24.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arbroath
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.0
10.7
0.7
0.8
0.7
19.9
21.3
18.5
vs Stronger (17)
9.9
9.8
10.0
1.4
1.3
1.5
21.0
20.5
21.5
vs Similar (33)
11.2
10.5
12.0
0.4
0.5
0.3
17.8
23.0
12.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
42%
50%
33%
12%
12%
12%
58%
67%
50%
% under line
58%
50%
67%
88%
88%
88%
42%
33%
50%
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Morton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.1
10.5
1.4
1.4
1.5
23.8
23.4
24.2
vs Stronger (9)
9.0
7.0
11.0
3.3
2.8
3.8
23.0
23.0
23.0
vs Similar (41)
9.3
8.6
10.2
1.0
1.2
0.8
24.1
23.6
24.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
29%
67%
22%
23%
21%
54%
57%
50%
% under line
54%
71%
33%
78%
77%
79%
46%
43%
50%
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dundee Utd
11.1
Morton
11.0
Arbroath
10.9
Dunfermline
10.9
Ayr
10.5
Queens Park
10.4
Raith Rvs
10.2
Montrose
10.1
Inverness CT
10.0
Partick
10.0
Airdrie United
10.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Raith Rvs
4.4
Montrose
4.3
Morton
4.2
Dundee Utd
4.0
Dunfermline
3.7
Arbroath
3.6
Partick
3.5
Queens Park
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Ayr
3.1
Inverness CT
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Morton
22.3
Dundee Utd
22.2
Montrose
21.5
Arbroath
21.1
Partick
20.2
Ayr
19.7
Raith Rvs
19.7
Dunfermline
19.5
Queens Park
19.5
Inverness CT
19.3
Airdrie United
18.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
57.9%
Under 9.5
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
57.9%
Under 3.5
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
49.8%
Under 21.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arbroath
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
1.10
0.23
0.77
0.18
1.35
vs Stronger (11)
0.18
1.09
0.20
0.60
0.17
1.50
vs Similar (19)
0.21
1.11
0.25
0.88
0.18
1.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Morton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.50
0.56
0.57
0.57
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.25
0.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.46
0.57
0.43
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arbroath
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.43
0.85
0.85
0.41
1.88
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.55
0.80
1.20
0.50
1.83
vs Similar (19)
0.58
1.37
0.88
0.62
0.36
1.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Morton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.33
0.94
0.38
0.50
0.29
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.77
0.31
1.00
0.29
0.50
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (22)
€11m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
Arbroath and Morton have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (7)
€4m
DUN (9)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
Arbroath and Morton have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (6)
€3m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Arbroath and Morton have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (9)
€4m
DUN (13)
€2m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Arbroath and Morton have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: Championship 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dundee Utd
Partick
Raith Rovers
Airdrie United
Inverness CT
Dunfermline
Ayr Utd
Queens Park
Queen's Park
Hamilton Academical
Alloa Athletic
Montrose