Arbroath’s home form has been modest, scoring only 0.9 goals per game and conceding 1.2, while Raith Rovers on the road average 1.23 scored and 1.46 conceded against similar opposition. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 46% chance, followed by a draw at 29% and a home win at 26%. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly open match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.6% probability. The match’s shape is a tight contest where Raith Rovers are slightly ahead.
The model’s selections include Under 25.5 fouls at 87.5%, Under 5.5 cards at 82.7%, Under 23.5 fouls at 76.8%, Under 3.5 (hit) at 75.0%, Over 8.5 corners at 74.4%, Over 1.5 (hit) at 73.2%, and Over 2.5 cards at 71.8%. Each selection is presented with its exact probability.
Results analysis
Arbroath’s recent form shows a two-game winning streak, yet Raith Rovers, fresh from a defeat, were the pre-match favourite at 46%. The model’s call of an away win proved correct as Raith secured a 1-2 victory. The match also delivered on the model’s selections: the Under 3.5 goal market hit with a 75% probability, and the Over 1.5 goal market also succeeded at 73.2%. The most likely scoreline of 1-1, with a 13.6% chance, was not reached, but the final score of 1-2 fell within the expected range of 2.5 goals. Overall, the model’s predictions largely came through.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Arbroath win✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied 22.8% · @ 4.06
Edge
+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied 25.1% · @ 3.70
Edge
+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers win✓ Hit
45.7%
Avg Implied 52.1% · @ 1.78
Edge
-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Arbroath
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.30
1.06
1.12
0.86
1.50
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
1.67
1.33
1.00
0.33
3.00
vs Similar (21)
0.95
1.14
0.90
1.20
1.00
1.09
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Raith Rovers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.33
1.93
1.20
1.20
1.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.62
1.35
2.00
1.23
1.23
1.46
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
1.25
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.2%
Under 1.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.5%
@ 1.70-8.3%
Under 2.5
53.5%
@ 2.06+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.0%
Under 3.5
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.5%
No
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
0-1
10.5%
0-0
9.2%
1-2 ✓
9.2%
0-2
8.7%
1-0
7.1%
2-1
6.5%
2-2
4.8%
Arbroath goals ↓
Raith Rovers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.2%
11%
8.7%
4.3%
1.6%
1
7.1%
14%
9.2%
4.5%
1.7%
2
4.4%
6.5%
4.8%
2.4%
0.9%
3
1.5%
2.3%
1.7%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arbroath goals (down), columns = Raith Rovers goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Dundee Utd
2.10
Raith Rvs
1.92
Raith Rovers
1.92
Partick
1.46
Airdrie United
1.40
Morton
1.35
Ayr
1.22
Ayr Utd
1.22
Queens Park
1.19
Queen's Park
1.19
Inverness CT
1.17
Dunfermline
1.12
Arbroath
0.65
Alloa Athletic
0.50
Montrose
0.50
Arbroath is 1.27 points worse than Raith Rovers in terms of average points per game (0.65 vs 1.92).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Alloa Athletic
2.00
Dundee Utd
2.00
Partick
1.81
Raith Rvs
1.61
Raith Rovers
1.61
Ayr
1.47
Ayr Utd
1.47
Queens Park
1.39
Queen's Park
1.39
Airdrie United
1.21
Inverness CT
1.19
Morton
1.19
Dunfermline
1.12
Arbroath
0.92
Montrose
0.00
Arbroath is 0.69 goals worse than Raith Rovers in terms of goals scored per game (0.92 vs 1.61).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Montrose
0.50
Dundee Utd
0.62
Morton
1.10
Inverness CT
1.15
Raith Rvs
1.17
Raith Rovers
1.17
Airdrie United
1.23
Dunfermline
1.35
Partick
1.54
Queens Park
1.56
Queen's Park
1.56
Ayr
1.69
Ayr Utd
1.69
Hamilton Academical
1.75
Alloa Athletic
2.50
Arbroath
2.54
Arbroath is 1.37 goals worse than Raith Rovers in terms of goals conceded per game (2.54 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Arbroath
For 4.6 · Against 7.9 · Total 12.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 10.4 · Total 20.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Raith Rovers
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Arbroath
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.8
11.6
12.2
1.0
1.0
1.0
19.4
20.1
18.5
vs Stronger (16)
11.9
12.2
11.3
1.6
1.6
1.6
18.6
19.2
17.7
vs Similar (34)
11.8
10.7
13.0
0.8
0.8
0.8
20.3
21.3
19.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
71%
50%
16%
15%
17%
46%
57%
33%
% under line
38%
29%
50%
84%
85%
83%
54%
43%
67%
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Raith Rovers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Queens Park
11.6
Arbroath
11.2
Morton
11.2
Ayr
10.9
Dundee Utd
10.9
Dunfermline
10.8
Montrose
10.5
Inverness CT
10.1
Partick
10.0
Airdrie United
9.9
Raith Rvs
9.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Montrose
4.3
Raith Rvs
4.3
Morton
4.0
Arbroath
3.7
Dundee Utd
3.7
Dunfermline
3.6
Partick
3.4
Ayr
3.2
Airdrie United
3.2
Queens Park
3.0
Inverness CT
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Montrose
23.3
Dundee Utd
22.3
Morton
21.8
Arbroath
21.1
Partick
20.4
Dunfermline
19.5
Raith Rvs
19.5
Inverness CT
19.2
Ayr
18.8
Airdrie United
18.3
Queens Park
18.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
63.1%
Under 9.5
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
51.0%
Under 3.5
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
38.1%
Under 21.5
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arbroath
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.67
0.38
0.69
0.21
0.64
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.11
0.67
0.83
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (21)
0.24
0.48
0.20
0.60
0.27
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Raith Rovers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.37
0.87
0.13
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.77
0.35
0.92
0.15
0.62
0.54
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arbroath
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.69
0.44
0.64
0.86
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.56
0.67
0.17
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.67
0.70
0.60
0.73
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Raith Rovers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.97
1.07
1.07
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.85
1.00
1.08
1.08
0.62
0.92
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (22)
€11m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
Arbroath's squad is €1m less valuable than Raith Rovers's (€1m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (7)
€4m
DUN (9)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
Arbroath and Raith Rovers have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (6)
€3m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Arbroath and Raith Rovers have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (9)
€4m
DUN (13)
€2m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Arbroath and Raith Rovers have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: Championship 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dundee Utd
Partick
Airdrie United
Morton
Inverness CT
Dunfermline
Ayr Utd
Queens Park
Queen's Park
Hamilton Academical
Alloa Athletic
Montrose