Arbroath vs Raith Rovers Result & Analysis

Arbroath’s recent five-game run of two wins, a draw and a loss shows a team that can hold its own, but the model still favours a Raith Rovers victory, giving the away side a 52% chance of triumph, a 29% chance of a draw and a 20% chance of an Arbroath win. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly open game, with the most likely scoreline 1-1 at 13.4%. Arbroath, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 0.9 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Raith Rovers on the road average 1.29 scored and 1.14 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 25.5 fouls at 86.4%, Under 5.5 cards at 84.9%, Under 3.5 at 79.4% (miss), Under 23.5 fouls at 75.2% and Under 4.5 cards at 71.3%. These picks reflect the expected low-intensity, low-card match that the model predicts.

The upset came early as Arbroath snatched a 3-2 victory, ending the home side’s two-game winning streak with a win over Livingston. The pre-match favourite was Raith Rovers, the model’s pick, with a 52% probability of triumph, but the call was wrong. The model also selected Under 3.5 goals at 79.4% confidence, a pick that missed as the match produced five goals. The final score of 3-2 confirmed a home win, contradicting the model’s expectations. The predicted most likely score of 1-1, with a 13.4% chance, did not materialise, and the total goals far exceeded the expected 2.3.