Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI Result & Analysis

Aris Thessalonikis are tipped to lift the trophy at home, the model favouring a home win with a 58% chance, followed by a 25% draw and a 18% chance for OFI. The average goal tally is 2.8, with the most probable total being two goals at 25%. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, carrying an 11.8% probability. Aris, playing at home against a similarly-ranked opponent, have not scored in recent fixtures (0.0 average goals) but have conceded twice on average. OFI, on the road, have managed 0.75 goals per game and have let in 1.25 on average. The model’s selections include a 97.7% chance of over 19.5 fouls, 94.3% for over 21.5 fouls, 94.2% for over 2.5 cards, 88.1% for over 23.5 fouls, 85.7% for over 3.5 cards, 81.5% for under 11.5 corners, 78.5% for over 25.5 fouls, and 77.3% for over 1.5 goals.

The upset came early as OFI overturned a 5-game winning streak for Aris Thessalonikis, winning 2-0 at home. The pre-match favourite, a home win, had a 58% probability, but the model’s call was wrong. The final score of 0-2 confirmed an away victory. The model’s other selections all performed: Over 19.5 fouls hit with 97.7%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 94.3%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 94.2%, Over 23.5 fouls hit at 88.1%, Over 3.5 cards hit at 85.7%, Under 11.5 corners missed at 81.5%, Over 25.5 fouls hit at 78.5%, and Over 1.5 hit at 77.3%. The match delivered a clear surprise, with the away side capitalising on Aris’s defensive frailties.