This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boavista
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.80
0.53
2.00
0.93
1.60
vs Stronger (24)
0.75
2.04
0.67
2.33
0.83
1.75
vs Similar (6)
0.67
0.83
0.00
0.67
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.8%
Under 1.5
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.0%
@ 1.88-9.4%
Under 2.5
59.0%
@ 1.91+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
20.5%
Under 3.5
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.4%
No
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.1%
1-0
10.7%
0-1
9.4%
2-1
8.1%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.2%
0-2
5.9%
Arouca goals ↓
Boavista goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.4%
5.9%
2.1%
0.6%
1
11%
14%
7.2%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.4%
8.1%
4.4%
1.6%
0.4%
3
3.0%
3.3%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arouca goals (down), columns = Boavista goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
FC Porto
2.09
SC Braga
1.94
Santa Clara
1.68
Guimaraes
1.59
Famalicao
1.38
Estoril
1.35
Casa Pia
1.32
Moreirense
1.18
Rio Ave
1.12
Arouca
1.12
GIL Vicente
1.00
Nacional
1.00
AVS
0.86
Estrela
0.85
Farense
0.79
Boavista
0.71
Vizela
0.50
Arouca is 0.41 points better than Boavista in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 0.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.59
Benfica
2.47
FC Porto
1.91
SC Braga
1.62
Estoril
1.41
Guimaraes
1.38
Famalicao
1.29
Moreirense
1.24
Casa Pia
1.15
Rio Ave
1.15
Santa Clara
1.06
Arouca
1.03
Vizela
1.00
GIL Vicente
1.00
Nacional
0.94
AVS
0.83
Farense
0.74
Estrela
0.71
Boavista
0.71
Arouca is 0.32 goals better than Boavista in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 0.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sporting CP
0.79
Benfica
0.82
FC Porto
0.88
SC Braga
0.88
Santa Clara
0.94
Guimaraes
1.09
Famalicao
1.15
Casa Pia
1.29
Farense
1.35
GIL Vicente
1.38
Arouca
1.44
Moreirense
1.47
Estrela
1.47
Nacional
1.47
Estoril
1.56
Rio Ave
1.62
AVS
1.72
Boavista
1.74
Vizela
2.50
Arouca is 0.29 goals better than Boavista in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.74).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Vizela
71%
FC Porto
62%
Sporting CP
60%
Benfica
58%
SC Braga
57%
Guimaraes
57%
Arouca
53%
GIL Vicente
51%
Famalicao
50%
Estoril
49%
Rio Ave
48%
Moreirense
47%
Nacional
47%
Casa Pia
47%
Estrela
45%
Santa Clara
44%
AVS
43%
Farense
41%
Boavista
40%
Arouca is 12.8 percentage points better than Boavista in terms of average possession (53% vs 40%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Arouca
For 3.8 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 13.6 · Total 27.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Boavista
For 3.8 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.6 · Against 3.0 · Total 6.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.6 · Against 15.1 · Total 29.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arouca
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.7
10.0
5.2
5.4
5.0
27.2
28.3
26.3
vs Stronger (15)
11.1
9.5
13.0
5.2
5.6
4.7
24.3
26.2
22.0
vs Similar (32)
9.7
10.1
9.2
4.9
5.1
4.7
28.7
29.4
28.0
vs Weaker (3)
5.7
5.0
6.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
28.0
28.0
28.0
% over line
50%
57%
44%
74%
71%
77%
81%
91%
72%
% under line
50%
43%
56%
26%
29%
23%
19%
9%
28%
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boavista
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
8.8
9.4
5.7
5.7
5.7
27.6
27.9
27.3
vs Stronger (40)
8.8
8.1
9.4
5.9
6.2
5.7
27.4
28.0
26.8
vs Similar (10)
10.3
10.8
9.5
4.9
4.2
6.0
28.6
27.7
30.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
39%
36%
42%
80%
80%
80%
88%
92%
83%
% under line
61%
64%
58%
20%
20%
20%
12%
8%
17%
This opponent (Arouca) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Farense
11.1
Nacional
10.6
Guimaraes
10.4
SC Braga
10.3
Famalicao
10.3
Estrela
10.2
Vizela
9.8
Benfica
9.8
Arouca
9.8
Rio Ave
9.8
Casa Pia
9.5
FC Porto
9.4
Sporting CP
9.3
Boavista
9.2
AVS
9.1
Estoril
9.0
GIL Vicente
8.7
Moreirense
8.3
Santa Clara
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Santa Clara
6.1
FC Porto
6.0
Boavista
5.8
Guimaraes
5.7
Famalicao
5.7
Arouca
5.3
AVS
5.2
SC Braga
5.2
Casa Pia
5.2
Farense
5.0
Sporting CP
5.0
Rio Ave
5.0
Vizela
4.9
Estrela
4.8
Nacional
4.8
Moreirense
4.8
Estoril
4.7
GIL Vicente
4.6
Benfica
4.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
30.4
Estrela
29.4
Santa Clara
29.2
Moreirense
28.9
Estoril
28.3
Rio Ave
28.1
Farense
28.0
Nacional
27.9
Guimaraes
27.7
Boavista
27.6
AVS
27.5
Arouca
27.3
GIL Vicente
26.6
FC Porto
26.6
Casa Pia
26.2
SC Braga
25.8
Sporting CP
25.5
Benfica
22.8
Vizela
18.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
44.9%
Under 9.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
80.3%
Under 3.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
90.1%
Under 21.5
9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arouca
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.63
0.21
0.50
0.69
0.75
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.52
0.27
0.36
0.80
0.70
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boavista
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.80
0.20
0.93
0.27
0.67
vs Stronger (24)
0.21
0.88
0.25
1.00
0.17
0.75
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arouca over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arouca
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.64
0.64
0.75
0.88
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.25
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.40
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.57
0.73
0.55
0.50
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boavista
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.00
0.33
1.07
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (24)
0.54
1.17
0.42
1.33
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arouca over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Arouca
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Henrique Araújo25%
Dylan Nandín20%
Jason16%
Alfonso Trezza15%
Güven Yalçın13%
Miguel Puche9%
Tiago Esgaio8%
Morlaye Sylla6%
Pablo Gozálbez6%
David Simão4%
Weverson4%
Chico Lamba4%
Jose Fontán3%
Mamadou Loum0%
Ivo Rodrigues0%
Nico Mantl0%
João Valido0%
Alex Pinto0%
Vladislav Morozov0%
Amadou Dante0%
Mateus Quaresma0%
Boris Popović0%
Brian Mansilla0%
Matías Rocha0%
Taichi Fukui0%
Pedro Santos0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ivo Rodrigues36%
Jose Fontán34%
David Simão33%
Mateus Quaresma33%
Alex Pinto29%
Chico Lamba23%
Nico Mantl21%
Matías Rocha20%
Pedro Santos19%
Mamadou Loum19%
Güven Yalçın17%
Henrique Araújo17%
Taichi Fukui17%
Jason16%
Morlaye Sylla16%
Weverson15%
Dylan Nandín13%
Alfonso Trezza12%
Tiago Esgaio8%
Amadou Dante6%
Pablo Gozálbez6%
Miguel Puche5%
João Valido0%
Vladislav Morozov0%
Boris Popović0%
Brian Mansilla0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ivo Rodrigues9%
Henrique Araújo8%
Weverson8%
Chico Lamba8%
Alex Pinto7%
Dylan Nandín7%
Taichi Fukui7%
Alfonso Trezza6%
Güven Yalçın4%
Tiago Esgaio4%
Jason3%
Morlaye Sylla3%
Mamadou Loum0%
David Simão0%
Nico Mantl0%
João Valido0%
Vladislav Morozov0%
Amadou Dante0%
Mateus Quaresma0%
Miguel Puche0%
Pablo Gozálbez0%
Boris Popović0%
Brian Mansilla0%
Jose Fontán0%
Matías Rocha0%
Pedro Santos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jason19%
Brian Mansilla17%
Henrique Araújo12%
Morlaye Sylla12%
Alfonso Trezza12%
Tiago Esgaio8%
Dylan Nandín7%
Pablo Gozálbez6%
Miguel Puche5%
Güven Yalçın4%
Mamadou Loum0%
David Simão0%
Ivo Rodrigues0%
Nico Mantl0%
João Valido0%
Alex Pinto0%
Vladislav Morozov0%
Amadou Dante0%
Mateus Quaresma0%
Boris Popović0%
Jose Fontán0%
Weverson0%
Chico Lamba0%
Matías Rocha0%
Taichi Fukui0%
Pedro Santos0%
Boavista
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bruno Onyemaechi17%
Róbert Boženík15%
Miguel Reisinho14%
Vitaliy Lystsov12%
Ilija Vukotić12%
Marco van Ginkel9%
Abdoulay Diaby8%
Joel Silva7%
Sebastián Pérez3%
Salvador Agra3%
Layvin Kurzawa0%
Tomáš Vaclík0%
César Dutra0%
Osman Kakay0%
Moussa Koné0%
Steven Vitória0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Gboly Ariyibi0%
Rodrigo Abascal0%
Manuel Namora0%
João Gonçalves0%
Augusto Dabo0%
Pedro Gomes0%
Gonçalo Miguel0%
Tiago Machado0%
Marco Ribeiro0%
João Barros0%
Tomás Silva0%
Sidoine Fogning0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Layvin Kurzawa50%
Miguel Reisinho38%
Pedro Gomes33%
Salvador Agra28%
Bruno Onyemaechi28%
Rodrigo Abascal28%
Vitaliy Lystsov25%
Sebastián Pérez24%
Ibrahima Camará23%
Sidoine Fogning23%
Osman Kakay22%
Róbert Boženík21%
Marco van Ginkel18%
Joel Silva13%
Steven Vitória12%
Manuel Namora12%
Ilija Vukotić12%
Filipe Ferreira11%
Abdoulay Diaby8%
Tomáš Vaclík8%
João Barros8%
César Dutra6%
Gonçalo Miguel5%
Moussa Koné0%
Gboly Ariyibi0%
João Gonçalves0%
Augusto Dabo0%
Tiago Machado0%
Marco Ribeiro0%
Tomás Silva0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marco van Ginkel9%
Abdoulay Diaby8%
Augusto Dabo8%
Salvador Agra6%
Bruno Onyemaechi6%
Joel Silva3%
Róbert Boženík3%
Layvin Kurzawa0%
Tomáš Vaclík0%
César Dutra0%
Osman Kakay0%
Moussa Koné0%
Steven Vitória0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Ilija Vukotić0%
Miguel Reisinho0%
Gboly Ariyibi0%
Rodrigo Abascal0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Manuel Namora0%
Vitaliy Lystsov0%
João Gonçalves0%
Pedro Gomes0%
Gonçalo Miguel0%
Tiago Machado0%
Marco Ribeiro0%
João Barros0%
Tomás Silva0%
Sidoine Fogning0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Róbert Boženík30%
Moussa Koné14%
Miguel Reisinho14%
Marco van Ginkel9%
Abdoulay Diaby8%
Salvador Agra6%
Ilija Vukotić4%
Layvin Kurzawa0%
Tomáš Vaclík0%
César Dutra0%
Osman Kakay0%
Steven Vitória0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Gboly Ariyibi0%
Rodrigo Abascal0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Manuel Namora0%
Vitaliy Lystsov0%
João Gonçalves0%
Bruno Onyemaechi0%
Augusto Dabo0%
Joel Silva0%
Pedro Gomes0%
Gonçalo Miguel0%
Tiago Machado0%
Marco Ribeiro0%
João Barros0%
Tomás Silva0%
Sidoine Fogning0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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Sporting CP
Benfica
FC Porto
SC Braga
Santa Clara
Guimaraes
Famalicao
Estoril
Casa Pia
Moreirense
Rio Ave
GIL Vicente
Nacional
AVS
Estrela
Farense
Vizela