This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Porto
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
0.57
2.13
0.67
1.80
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.67
0.56
1.00
0.50
2.20
0.60
vs Weaker (21)
2.10
0.57
2.55
0.73
1.60
0.40
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
63.8%
Under 1.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
35.6%
@ 1.68-20.6%
Under 2.5
64.4%
@ 2.15+20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.5%
Under 3.5
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.8%
No
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1 ✓
14.5%
1-1
14.0%
0-0
13.3%
0-2
10.3%
1-0
8.4%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
5.1%
0-3
4.5%
Arouca goals ↓
FC Porto goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
14%
10%
4.5%
1.5%
1
8.4%
14%
8.3%
3.6%
1.2%
2
3.9%
5.1%
3.4%
1.5%
0.5%
3
1.1%
1.4%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arouca goals (down), columns = FC Porto goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Benfica
2.56
FC Porto
2.50
SC Braga
2.29
Sporting CP
2.18
Arouca
1.59
Guimaraes
1.56
Estrela
1.50
Chaves
1.35
Boavista
1.29
Famalicao
1.29
Casa Pia
1.21
Vizela
1.18
Rio Ave
1.18
GIL Vicente
1.09
Estoril
1.03
Portimonense
1.00
Maritimo
0.81
Pacos Ferreira
0.68
Santa Clara
0.65
Arouca is 0.91 points worse than FC Porto in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 2.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benfica
2.41
SC Braga
2.21
FC Porto
2.15
Sporting CP
2.09
Estrela
1.50
Boavista
1.26
Famalicao
1.15
Rio Ave
1.06
Arouca
1.06
Chaves
1.03
Vizela
1.00
Guimaraes
1.00
Maritimo
0.97
Estoril
0.97
GIL Vicente
0.94
Casa Pia
0.91
Pacos Ferreira
0.76
Santa Clara
0.76
Portimonense
0.74
Arouca is 1.09 goals worse than FC Porto in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 2.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Benfica
0.59
FC Porto
0.65
SC Braga
0.88
Sporting CP
0.94
Arouca
1.09
Vizela
1.12
Guimaraes
1.15
Chaves
1.18
Casa Pia
1.18
GIL Vicente
1.21
Rio Ave
1.26
Famalicao
1.38
Portimonense
1.41
Estoril
1.44
Estrela
1.50
Boavista
1.59
Santa Clara
1.71
Pacos Ferreira
1.82
Maritimo
1.83
Arouca is 0.44 goals worse than FC Porto in terms of goals conceded per game (1.09 vs 0.65).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Arouca
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FC Porto
For 3.7 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 13.7 · Total 25.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arouca
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.9
9.0
2.5
2.6
2.4
30.7
30.0
31.4
vs Stronger (15)
7.2
4.0
10.3
2.1
2.6
1.8
30.0
33.0
27.0
vs Similar (26)
10.7
12.0
9.4
2.3
2.4
2.2
30.6
29.2
32.0
vs Weaker (9)
9.8
13.5
6.0
3.8
3.2
4.2
32.0
27.5
36.5
% over line
50%
60%
40%
34%
32%
36%
95%
100%
90%
% under line
50%
40%
60%
66%
68%
64%
5%
0%
10%
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Porto
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
10.3
8.5
2.2
1.5
2.8
25.8
23.1
28.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
8.6
8.8
8.4
4.8
4.2
5.4
26.4
23.8
28.6
vs Weaker (37)
10.1
11.3
8.6
1.2
0.7
1.8
25.3
22.7
28.4
% over line
45%
60%
30%
30%
24%
36%
75%
60%
90%
% under line
55%
40%
70%
70%
76%
64%
25%
40%
10%
This opponent (Arouca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Estrela
11.6
Vizela
11.3
Chaves
11.1
Benfica
10.6
Pacos Ferreira
10.2
Portimonense
10.1
Guimaraes
10.1
Rio Ave
10.1
GIL Vicente
10.1
Estoril
10.0
Boavista
9.9
FC Porto
9.6
Santa Clara
9.6
Famalicao
9.6
Arouca
9.4
SC Braga
9.3
Sporting CP
9.3
Maritimo
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arouca
6.6
Boavista
6.4
Famalicao
6.4
Maritimo
6.4
FC Porto
6.4
Sporting CP
6.2
Vizela
6.1
GIL Vicente
6.0
Estrela
5.9
Pacos Ferreira
5.7
Guimaraes
5.7
Santa Clara
5.7
Estoril
5.6
Portimonense
5.6
SC Braga
5.4
Benfica
5.1
Chaves
5.0
Rio Ave
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Maritimo
34.1
Santa Clara
31.7
Chaves
31.6
Pacos Ferreira
31.2
Arouca
31.0
Famalicao
30.9
Rio Ave
30.8
Guimaraes
30.4
Boavista
30.0
Estoril
29.9
Portimonense
29.3
FC Porto
28.1
Estrela
28.0
Vizela
27.9
Sporting CP
27.5
GIL Vicente
27.0
SC Braga
26.8
Benfica
25.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
48.9%
Under 9.5
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
89.3%
Under 3.5
10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
95.5%
Under 21.5
4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arouca
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.60
0.47
0.27
0.67
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.33
0.25
1.25
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.19
0.78
0.11
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
0.40
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Porto
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.17
1.33
0.20
0.60
0.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.11
0.50
0.00
0.60
0.20
vs Weaker (21)
1.14
0.19
1.64
0.27
0.60
0.10
Clean sheet %
87% (+57pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arouca over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arouca
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.57
0.80
0.60
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.22
0.50
1.50
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.19
1.00
0.11
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.60
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Porto
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.40
0.80
0.47
1.20
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.11
0.44
0.50
0.50
1.60
0.40
vs Weaker (21)
0.95
0.38
0.91
0.45
1.00
0.30
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arouca over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 4.5 cards
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Arouca
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Oday Dabbagh36%
Rafa Mújica26%
Antony Alves18%
André Bukia14%
Morlaye Sylla12%
Alan Ruiz10%
João Basso9%
Benji Michel8%
Bruno Marques6%
Mateus Quaresma3%
Oriol Busquets0%
David Simão0%
Yusuf Lawal0%
Nino Galović0%
Arsénio Nunes0%
Yaw Moses0%
Pedro Moreira0%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena0%
Emilijus Zubas0%
Ismaila Soro0%
Tiago Esgaio0%
Jerome Opoku0%
Bogdan Milovanov0%
Weverson0%
Vitinho0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Tiago Esgaio35%
Emilijus Zubas33%
Alan Ruiz32%
Ismaila Soro27%
Bogdan Milovanov27%
Jerome Opoku25%
Weverson25%
David Simão23%
Pedro Moreira17%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena17%
Nino Galović16%
Mateus Quaresma16%
André Bukia14%
João Basso12%
Vitinho11%
Arsénio Nunes10%
Antony Alves9%
Morlaye Sylla9%
Bruno Marques6%
Oriol Busquets4%
Rafa Mújica4%
Yusuf Lawal0%
Yaw Moses0%
Benji Michel0%
Oday Dabbagh0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vitinho22%
Morlaye Sylla12%
David Simão10%
Benji Michel8%
Tiago Esgaio8%
Alan Ruiz6%
Arsénio Nunes6%
Nino Galović5%
Jerome Opoku4%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena3%
João Basso3%
Mateus Quaresma3%
Antony Alves3%
Oriol Busquets0%
Yusuf Lawal0%
Yaw Moses0%
André Bukia0%
Pedro Moreira0%
Oday Dabbagh0%
Emilijus Zubas0%
Ismaila Soro0%
Rafa Mújica0%
Bogdan Milovanov0%
Weverson0%
Bruno Marques0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rafa Mújica33%
Alan Ruiz26%
Oday Dabbagh21%
André Bukia14%
Antony Alves9%
Morlaye Sylla3%
Oriol Busquets0%
David Simão0%
Yusuf Lawal0%
Nino Galović0%
Arsénio Nunes0%
João Basso0%
Yaw Moses0%
Pedro Moreira0%
Benji Michel0%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena0%
Emilijus Zubas0%
Ismaila Soro0%
Tiago Esgaio0%
Jerome Opoku0%
Mateus Quaresma0%
Bogdan Milovanov0%
Weverson0%
Bruno Marques0%
Vitinho0%
FC Porto
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mehdi Taremi48%
Evanilson23%
Wenderson Galeno21%
Otávio15%
Iván Marcano14%
Mateus Uribe13%
Toni Martínez13%
Danny Namaso12%
Stephen Eustáquio11%
André Franco11%
Pepê10%
Fábio Cardoso10%
João Mário4%
Zaidu Sanusi4%
Marko Grujić4%
Wendell3%
Diogo Costa0%
Pepe0%
Bruno Costa0%
Wilson Manafá0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
David Carmo0%
Gonçalo Borges0%
Bernardo Folha0%
Gabriel Veron0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Iván Marcano32%
David Carmo29%
Otávio26%
Mateus Uribe26%
João Mário26%
Fábio Cardoso24%
Marko Grujić21%
Mehdi Taremi20%
Pepe14%
Wilson Manafá14%
Bernardo Folha14%
Wendell12%
Pepê12%
Zaidu Sanusi12%
Stephen Eustáquio11%
André Franco11%
Wenderson Galeno10%
Danny Namaso8%
Gonçalo Borges7%
Gabriel Veron5%
Evanilson3%
Diogo Costa2%
Bruno Costa0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
Toni Martínez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Otávio21%
Mehdi Taremi20%
Evanilson19%
Pepê14%
João Mário13%
Bruno Costa11%
Stephen Eustáquio11%
Toni Martínez11%
Wenderson Galeno10%
Gabriel Veron10%
Danny Namaso8%
Wendell6%
Diogo Costa2%
Pepe0%
Wilson Manafá0%
Iván Marcano0%
Mateus Uribe0%
Marko Grujić0%
Fábio Cardoso0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
David Carmo0%
Zaidu Sanusi0%
Gonçalo Borges0%
André Franco0%
Bernardo Folha0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mehdi Taremi45%
Wenderson Galeno18%
Evanilson16%
Toni Martínez13%
Stephen Eustáquio8%
Gonçalo Borges7%
Gabriel Veron5%
Pepê5%
Danny Namaso4%
Marko Grujić4%
Otávio3%
Mateus Uribe3%
Diogo Costa0%
Pepe0%
Bruno Costa0%
Wilson Manafá0%
Iván Marcano0%
Wendell0%
Fábio Cardoso0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
João Mário0%
David Carmo0%
Zaidu Sanusi0%
André Franco0%
Bernardo Folha0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
EST (22)
€20m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
PF (13)
€2m
Arouca's squad is €440m less valuable than FC Porto's (€28m vs €467m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
EST (6)
€6m
VIZ (13)
€5m
CHA (5)
€3m
POR (7)
€2m
PF (3)
€1m
Arouca's attack is €203m less valuable than FC Porto's (€11m vs €214m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
POR (5)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
Arouca's midfield is €97m less valuable than FC Porto's (€8m vs €105m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
ARO (10)
€8m
MAR (11)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
POR (8)
€3m
PF (8)
€1m
Arouca's defence is €139m less valuable than FC Porto's (€8m vs €148m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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Benfica
SC Braga
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
Chaves
Famalicao
Boavista
Casa Pia
Vizela
Rio Ave
GIL Vicente
Estoril
Portimonense
Maritimo
Pacos Ferreira
Santa Clara
Estrela