This opponent (Guimaraes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Guimaraes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.57
1.38
1.12
1.43
2.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.57
0.25
0.50
1.33
3.00
vs Similar (4)
2.75
1.75
3.50
1.00
2.00
2.50
vs Weaker (19)
1.37
1.53
1.40
1.40
1.33
1.67
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.3%
Under 1.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.5%
Under 2.5
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.1%
Under 3.5
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.8%
No
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.2%
1-0
8.8%
0-0
6.3%
3-1
6.2%
3-0
5.7%
1-2
5.7%
Arouca goals ↓
Guimaraes goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
4.6%
3.0%
1.1%
0.3%
1
8.8%
12%
5.7%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.2%
9.9%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
3
5.7%
6.2%
3.3%
1.2%
0.3%
4
2.7%
2.9%
1.6%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arouca goals (down), columns = Guimaraes goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Benfica
2.59
Sporting CP
2.53
FC Porto
2.15
SC Braga
1.71
Arouca
1.59
Rio Ave
1.47
Pacos Ferreira
1.44
Estoril
1.38
Belenenses
1.21
Guimaraes
1.18
Nacional
1.12
Moreirense
1.06
Maritimo
1.03
Boavista
0.97
Tondela
0.88
Setubal
0.88
Uniao Madeira
0.85
Academica
0.74
Arouca is 0.41 points better than Guimaraes in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benfica
2.59
Sporting CP
2.32
FC Porto
1.97
SC Braga
1.59
Arouca
1.38
Maritimo
1.32
Guimaraes
1.32
Rio Ave
1.29
Belenenses
1.29
Pacos Ferreira
1.26
Nacional
1.18
Estoril
1.18
Setubal
1.18
Moreirense
1.12
Tondela
1.00
Academica
0.94
Uniao Madeira
0.79
Boavista
0.71
Arouca is 0.06 goals better than Guimaraes in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sporting CP
0.62
Benfica
0.65
FC Porto
0.88
SC Braga
1.03
Arouca
1.12
Estoril
1.21
Boavista
1.21
Pacos Ferreira
1.24
Rio Ave
1.29
Uniao Madeira
1.47
Guimaraes
1.56
Tondela
1.59
Moreirense
1.59
Nacional
1.65
Academica
1.76
Setubal
1.79
Maritimo
1.85
Belenenses
1.94
Arouca is 0.44 goals better than Guimaraes in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Arouca
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Guimaraes
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Arouca
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (33)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (12)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Guimaraes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (33)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (8)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Arouca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Not collected for this league yet.
🟨 Total Cards
Not collected for this league yet.
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arouca
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.87
0.47
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.25
0.00
0.33
0.20
1.80
vs Similar (11)
1.00
0.27
1.00
0.17
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.55
1.17
0.83
0.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Guimaraes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
0.69
0.56
0.86
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.57
0.25
0.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (4)
1.25
1.25
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.50
vs Weaker (19)
0.79
0.79
0.80
0.70
0.78
0.89
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arouca over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arouca
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.80
0.60
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
0.62
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.40
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.73
0.67
0.50
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
0.82
0.27
1.17
0.50
0.40
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Guimaraes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.69
0.56
0.57
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (4)
1.50
0.50
2.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
0.58
0.74
0.60
0.70
0.56
0.78
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arouca over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Arouca · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ivan Barbero75%
Jose Fontán25%
Dylan Nandín25%
Espen Van Ee25%
Javi Sánchez0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Naïs Djouahra0%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena0%
Tiago Esgaio0%
Pablo Gozálbez0%
Brian Mansilla0%
Alfonso Trezza0%
Taichi Fukui0%
Pedro Santos0%
Hyun-ju Lee0%
Mateo Flores0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Javi Sánchez50%
Dylan Nandín50%
Hyun-ju Lee33%
Ivan Barbero25%
Orest Lebedenko25%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena25%
Naïs Djouahra0%
Tiago Esgaio0%
Pablo Gozálbez0%
Brian Mansilla0%
Jose Fontán0%
Alfonso Trezza0%
Taichi Fukui0%
Pedro Santos0%
Mateo Flores0%
Espen Van Ee0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Naïs Djouahra50%
Hyun-ju Lee33%
Pablo Gozálbez25%
Alfonso Trezza25%
Javi Sánchez0%
Ivan Barbero0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena0%
Tiago Esgaio0%
Brian Mansilla0%
Jose Fontán0%
Dylan Nandín0%
Taichi Fukui0%
Pedro Santos0%
Mateo Flores0%
Espen Van Ee0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ivan Barbero25%
Naïs Djouahra25%
Taichi Fukui25%
Javi Sánchez0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena0%
Tiago Esgaio0%
Pablo Gozálbez0%
Brian Mansilla0%
Jose Fontán0%
Alfonso Trezza0%
Dylan Nandín0%
Pedro Santos0%
Hyun-ju Lee0%
Mateo Flores0%
Espen Van Ee0%
Guimaraes · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Samu25%
Alioune Ndoye25%
Gustavo Silva25%
Oliwier Zych0%
Óscar Rivas0%
João Mendes0%
Beni Mukendi0%
Telmo Arcanjo0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Gonçalo Nogueira0%
Thiago Balieiro0%
Tony Strata0%
Miguel Nogueira0%
Oumar Camara0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Óscar Rivas50%
Gustavo Silva50%
Miguel Nogueira50%
Gonçalo Nogueira25%
Thiago Balieiro25%
Tony Strata25%
Oumar Camara25%
Samu0%
Oliwier Zych0%
João Mendes0%
Beni Mukendi0%
Telmo Arcanjo0%
Alioune Ndoye0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Miguel Nogueira50%
Tony Strata25%
Samu0%
Oliwier Zych0%
Óscar Rivas0%
João Mendes0%
Beni Mukendi0%
Telmo Arcanjo0%
Alioune Ndoye0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Gonçalo Nogueira0%
Thiago Balieiro0%
Gustavo Silva0%
Oumar Camara0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alioune Ndoye75%
Gustavo Silva50%
Samu25%
Tony Strata25%
Oliwier Zych0%
Óscar Rivas0%
João Mendes0%
Beni Mukendi0%
Telmo Arcanjo0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Gonçalo Nogueira0%
Thiago Balieiro0%
Miguel Nogueira0%
Oumar Camara0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
RA (26)
€37m
ARO (25)
€28m
MOR (21)
€22m
NAC (31)
€20m
MAR (27)
€16m
TON (20)
€10m
ACA (11)
€2m
PF (13)
€2m
Arouca's squad is €18m less valuable than Guimaraes's (€28m vs €46m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
ARO (11)
€11m
RA (8)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
TON (7)
€2m
ACA (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
Arouca's attack is €11m less valuable than Guimaraes's (€11m vs €22m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
TON (4)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
ACA (1)
€0m
Arouca's midfield is €3m less valuable than Guimaraes's (€8m vs €11m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
RA (13)
€21m
GUI (13)
€12m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
ACA (4)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
Arouca's defence is €4m less valuable than Guimaraes's (€8m vs €12m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2015/16 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Benfica
Sporting CP
FC Porto
SC Braga
Rio Ave
Pacos Ferreira
Estoril
Belenenses
Nacional
Moreirense
Maritimo
Boavista
Tondela
Academica