This opponent (Rio Ave) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rio Ave
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.38
1.31
1.27
0.93
1.50
1.71
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.83
1.00
1.00
0.75
2.25
vs Similar (12)
1.33
1.42
1.43
1.14
1.20
1.80
vs Weaker (11)
1.73
0.91
1.17
0.67
2.40
1.20
Clean sheet %
38% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.0%
Under 1.5
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.3%
Under 2.5
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.0%
Under 3.5
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.2%
No
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
8.1%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.2%
0-0 ✓
6.9%
0-1
6.1%
2-2
5.8%
Arouca goals ↓
Rio Ave goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
6.1%
4.5%
1.9%
0.6%
1
8.1%
13%
7.2%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.4%
9.3%
5.8%
2.4%
0.8%
3
3.9%
4.9%
3.1%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.6%
2.0%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arouca goals (down), columns = Rio Ave goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Benfica
2.59
Sporting CP
2.53
FC Porto
2.15
SC Braga
1.71
Arouca
1.59
Rio Ave
1.47
Pacos Ferreira
1.44
Estoril
1.38
Belenenses
1.21
Guimaraes
1.18
Nacional
1.12
Moreirense
1.06
Maritimo
1.03
Boavista
0.97
Tondela
0.88
Setubal
0.88
Uniao Madeira
0.85
Academica
0.74
Arouca is 0.12 points better than Rio Ave in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 1.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benfica
2.59
Sporting CP
2.32
FC Porto
1.97
SC Braga
1.59
Arouca
1.38
Maritimo
1.32
Guimaraes
1.32
Rio Ave
1.29
Belenenses
1.29
Pacos Ferreira
1.26
Nacional
1.18
Estoril
1.18
Setubal
1.18
Moreirense
1.12
Tondela
1.00
Academica
0.94
Uniao Madeira
0.79
Boavista
0.71
Arouca is 0.09 goals better than Rio Ave in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sporting CP
0.62
Benfica
0.65
FC Porto
0.88
SC Braga
1.03
Arouca
1.12
Estoril
1.21
Boavista
1.21
Pacos Ferreira
1.24
Rio Ave
1.29
Uniao Madeira
1.47
Guimaraes
1.56
Tondela
1.59
Moreirense
1.59
Nacional
1.65
Academica
1.76
Setubal
1.79
Maritimo
1.85
Belenenses
1.94
Arouca is 0.18 goals better than Rio Ave in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Arouca
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Rio Ave
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Arouca
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (29)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (12)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rio Ave
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (29)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (11)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Arouca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Not collected for this league yet.
🟨 Total Cards
Not collected for this league yet.
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arouca
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.59
0.69
0.86
0.50
0.33
0.87
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.11
0.25
0.25
0.20
1.80
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.38
1.00
0.25
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (12)
0.75
0.58
1.17
0.83
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
52% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rio Ave
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.69
0.48
0.73
0.40
0.64
0.57
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.33
0.71
0.14
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (11)
0.91
0.36
0.83
0.50
1.00
0.20
Clean sheet %
66% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arouca over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arouca
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.76
0.48
0.79
0.64
0.73
0.33
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
0.56
0.25
0.75
1.00
0.40
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.75
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (12)
0.75
0.25
1.17
0.50
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
59% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rio Ave
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.69
0.83
0.53
0.53
0.86
1.14
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.83
0.50
0.00
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (12)
0.75
1.08
0.71
1.00
0.80
1.20
vs Weaker (11)
0.82
0.55
0.33
0.17
1.40
1.00
Clean sheet %
52% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arouca over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Arouca · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ivan Barbero75%
Jose Fontán25%
Dylan Nandín25%
Espen Van Ee25%
Javi Sánchez0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Naïs Djouahra0%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena0%
Tiago Esgaio0%
Pablo Gozálbez0%
Brian Mansilla0%
Alfonso Trezza0%
Taichi Fukui0%
Pedro Santos0%
Hyun-ju Lee0%
Mateo Flores0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Javi Sánchez50%
Dylan Nandín50%
Hyun-ju Lee33%
Ivan Barbero25%
Orest Lebedenko25%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena25%
Naïs Djouahra0%
Tiago Esgaio0%
Pablo Gozálbez0%
Brian Mansilla0%
Jose Fontán0%
Alfonso Trezza0%
Taichi Fukui0%
Pedro Santos0%
Mateo Flores0%
Espen Van Ee0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Naïs Djouahra50%
Hyun-ju Lee33%
Pablo Gozálbez25%
Alfonso Trezza25%
Javi Sánchez0%
Ivan Barbero0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena0%
Tiago Esgaio0%
Brian Mansilla0%
Jose Fontán0%
Dylan Nandín0%
Taichi Fukui0%
Pedro Santos0%
Mateo Flores0%
Espen Van Ee0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ivan Barbero25%
Naïs Djouahra25%
Taichi Fukui25%
Javi Sánchez0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena0%
Tiago Esgaio0%
Pablo Gozálbez0%
Brian Mansilla0%
Jose Fontán0%
Alfonso Trezza0%
Dylan Nandín0%
Pedro Santos0%
Hyun-ju Lee0%
Mateo Flores0%
Espen Van Ee0%
Rio Ave · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tamblé Monteiro25%
Jalen Blesa25%
Dario Špikić0%
Georgios Liavas0%
Tamás Nikitscher0%
Marios Vrousai0%
Roland Galčík0%
Diogo Nascimento0%
Ennio Van Der Gouw0%
Andreas Ndoj0%
Nelson Abbey0%
Diogo Bezerra0%
Francisco Petrasso0%
Gustavo Mancha0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Andreas Ndoj33%
Nelson Abbey33%
Georgios Liavas25%
Tamás Nikitscher25%
Dario Špikić0%
Marios Vrousai0%
Roland Galčík0%
Diogo Nascimento0%
Ennio Van Der Gouw0%
Tamblé Monteiro0%
Diogo Bezerra0%
Jalen Blesa0%
Francisco Petrasso0%
Gustavo Mancha0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Diogo Bezerra25%
Jalen Blesa25%
Dario Špikić0%
Georgios Liavas0%
Tamás Nikitscher0%
Marios Vrousai0%
Roland Galčík0%
Diogo Nascimento0%
Ennio Van Der Gouw0%
Andreas Ndoj0%
Nelson Abbey0%
Tamblé Monteiro0%
Francisco Petrasso0%
Gustavo Mancha0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tamblé Monteiro25%
Dario Špikić0%
Georgios Liavas0%
Tamás Nikitscher0%
Marios Vrousai0%
Roland Galčík0%
Diogo Nascimento0%
Ennio Van Der Gouw0%
Andreas Ndoj0%
Nelson Abbey0%
Diogo Bezerra0%
Jalen Blesa0%
Francisco Petrasso0%
Gustavo Mancha0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
RA (26)
€37m
ARO (25)
€28m
MOR (21)
€22m
NAC (31)
€20m
MAR (27)
€16m
TON (20)
€10m
ACA (11)
€2m
PF (13)
€2m
Arouca's squad is €9m less valuable than Rio Ave's (€28m vs €37m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
ARO (11)
€11m
RA (8)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
TON (7)
€2m
ACA (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
Arouca's attack is €4m more valuable than Rio Ave's (€11m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
TON (4)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
ACA (1)
€0m
Arouca and Rio Ave have a similar midfield value (both €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
RA (13)
€21m
GUI (13)
€12m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
ACA (4)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
Arouca's defence is €13m less valuable than Rio Ave's (€8m vs €21m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2015/16 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Benfica
Sporting CP
FC Porto
SC Braga
Pacos Ferreira
Estoril
Belenenses
Guimaraes
Nacional
Moreirense
Maritimo
Boavista
Tondela
Academica