Arsenal, with a home win probability of 68%, is clear favourite to take the three points. Their strong home form against weaker opponents, averaging 2.17 goals scored and 0.83 conceded, suggests they will capitalise on Coventry's away struggles. The Gunners' recent unbeaten run at home, including a draw against Paris Saint-Germain, further bolsters their confidence.
The model predicts a 2-0 scoreline, with a probability of 12.9%, as the most likely result. The expected total goals stands at 2.8, with a most likely total of 2 goals.
The model's selection is Home win, with a 68% probability, making it the clear favourite. The draw percentage is 21%, and the away win percentage is 11%. The model also suggests an Over 1.5 goals selection, with a 78.2% probability, indicating a high chance of both teams scoring.
Results analysis
Arsenal’s unbeaten run extended as they secured a 3-0 win over Coventry, confirming the model’s prediction of a home victory. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 68 % probability and proved correct. The model’s selections all came through: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.4 % hit, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.3 % hit, Under 7.5 at 99.1 % hit, Under 6.5 at 97.5 % hit, Home +2 handicap at 96.7 % hit, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 96.3 % hit, Away under 2.5 goals at 96.1 % hit and Under 5.5 at 93.3 % hit. The final score of 3-0 matched the expected total of 2.8 goals, with the most likely scoreline of 2-0 proving close to the outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Arsenal win✓ Hit
67.7%
Avg Implied 79.1% · @ 1.20
Edge
-11.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Dafabet
1.22
Draw✗ Miss
21.1%
Avg Implied 14.0% · @ 6.78
Edge
+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
7.20
1xBet
7.11
Unibet
7.00
Superbet
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Coventry win✗ Miss
11.2%
Avg Implied 6.8% · @ 13.91
Edge
+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
16.00
10Bet
16.00
Unibet
16.00
BetVictor
15.00
Pinnacle
15.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Arsenal
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.80
1.73
0.67
1.73
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.18
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
2.05
0.68
2.22
0.44
1.90
0.90
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Coventry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Coventry
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
0.97
1.93
0.87
1.40
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.67
1.00
1.62
1.00
1.70
1.00
vs Weaker (12)
1.67
0.92
2.29
0.71
0.80
1.20
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.2%
@ 1.16-2.7%
Under 1.5
21.8%
@ 4.94+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Under
Unibet
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
Betfair
5.20
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.85
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.7%
@ 1.57-7.0%
Under 2.5
46.3%
@ 2.42+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.63
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.59
Superbet
1.58
10Bet
1.57
Under
Unibet
2.55
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.49
Pinnacle
2.45
Betano
2.42
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.4%
@ 2.41-8.0%
Under 3.5
68.6%
@ 1.56+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.50
Superbet
2.45
888Sport
2.45
1xBet
2.44
Marathonbet
2.44
Under
Unibet
1.61
Betano
1.60
Betfair
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.7%
@ 2.26+5.4%
No
53.3%
@ 1.59-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
2.45
Superbet
2.35
Betfair
2.30
Marathonbet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
No
Betano
1.65
888Sport
1.65
William Hil
1.65
1xBet
1.61
Unibet
1.58
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.9%@ 5.67+4.9%
1-0
11.5%@ 7.03+5.0%
1-1
10.1%@ 12.22+6.4%
2-1
9.5%@ 9.09+4.5%
3-0 ✓
9.0%@ 6.62+2.1%
0-0
6.8%@ 15.78+4.0%
3-1
6.6%@ 10.85+2.4%
4-0
4.7%@ 9.82+0.1%
Arsenal goals ↓
Coventry goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
3.5%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
1
11%
10%
3.4%
0.8%
0.2%
2
13%
9.5%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
3
9.0%
6.6%
2.5%
0.6%
0.1%
4
4.7%
3.5%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arsenal goals (down), columns = Coventry goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Crystal Palace
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Coventry
0.98
Hull
0.95
Arsenal is 1.26 points better than Coventry in terms of average points per game (2.24 vs 0.98).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.20
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Coventry
0.99
Hull
0.96
Arsenal is 0.88 goals better than Coventry in terms of goals scored per game (1.87 vs 0.99).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.57
Coventry
1.92
Hull
1.97
Arsenal is 1.21 goals better than Coventry in terms of goals conceded per game (0.71 vs 1.92).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Arsenal
For 4.2 · Against 4.6 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 10.8 · Total 21.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Coventry
For 5.6 · Against 2.2 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.9 · Against 2.0 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 12.7 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arsenal
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.8
9.2
3.5
3.0
4.0
22.1
22.2
22.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
9.3
8.4
10.4
3.9
3.2
4.6
22.9
22.8
23.0
vs Weaker (35)
8.9
9.1
8.7
3.3
2.8
3.8
21.7
21.9
21.6
% over line
44%
42%
46%
50%
50%
50%
58%
62%
54%
% under line
56%
58%
54%
50%
50%
50%
42%
38%
46%
This opponent (Coventry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Coventry
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.6
9.8
3.7
3.7
3.8
20.9
21.2
20.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (31)
9.6
10.0
9.2
4.0
4.3
3.6
21.6
22.0
21.3
vs Weaker (19)
9.8
8.8
10.7
3.3
2.6
4.0
19.7
19.8
19.6
% over line
46%
40%
52%
50%
52%
48%
42%
48%
36%
% under line
54%
60%
48%
50%
48%
52%
58%
52%
64%
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.1
Bournemouth
10.5
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.5
Liverpool
10.3
Manchester City
10.2
Nottingham Forest
10.0
Chelsea
9.9
Brentford
9.9
Ipswich
9.9
Tottenham
9.8
Brighton
9.8
Coventry
9.7
Leeds
9.6
Manchester United
9.6
Aston Villa
9.5
Everton
9.4
Sunderland
9.2
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tottenham
4.7
Bournemouth
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Sunderland
4.3
Manchester United
4.2
Hull
4.2
Ipswich
4.2
Newcastle
4.2
Brighton
4.0
Brentford
3.8
Crystal Palace
3.8
Aston Villa
3.8
Manchester City
3.7
Coventry
3.7
Everton
3.7
Fulham
3.6
Liverpool
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
Arsenal
3.5
Leeds
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
24.0
Aston Villa
23.7
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Bournemouth
23.2
Chelsea
23.0
Sunderland
22.8
Tottenham
22.7
Brighton
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Everton
21.9
Manchester United
21.9
Leeds
21.8
Newcastle
21.6
Crystal Palace
21.5
Hull
21.4
Manchester City
21.3
Liverpool
21.0
Coventry
20.9
Fulham
20.2
Brentford
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
49.3%
@ 1.68-6.0%
Under 9.5
50.7%
@ 2.07+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Under
Pinnacle
2.18
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.12
1xBet
2.07
Superbet
2.05
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.1%
@ 2.26+4.8%
Under 3.5
53.9%
@ 1.59-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.46
Unibet
2.38
Superbet
2.32
Betano
2.22
Bet365
2.10
Under
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.54
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
45.9%
@ 1.99-0.8%
Under 21.5
54.1%
@ 1.74+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.15
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.90
Under
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Superbet
1.61
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Arsenal or Draw✓ Hit
88.8%
Avg Implied 92.3% · @ 1.04
Edge
-3.5%
68%
21%
11%
covers Arsenal + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
BetVictor
1.04
Arsenal or Coventry✓ Hit
78.9%
Avg Implied 86.6% · @ 1.10
Edge
-7.6%
68%
21%
11%
covers Arsenal + Coventry
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.13
Betano
1.12
888Sport
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Draw or Coventry✗ Miss
32.3%
Avg Implied 21.1% · @ 4.52
Edge
+11.1%
68%
21%
11%
covers Draw + Coventry
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.65
Superbet
4.55
BetVictor
4.50
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Arsenal over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
87.6%
@ 1.04-2.6%
Under
12.4%
@ 9.53+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Under
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
10.00
888Sport
10.00
Unibet
9.50
Betfair
9.50
Arsenal over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
61.7%
@ 1.30-10.2%
Under
38.3%
@ 3.32+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.32
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.51
Unibet
3.50
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.35
BetVictor
3.30
Arsenal over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
34.7%
@ 1.97-12.8%
Under
65.3%
@ 1.78+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.08
Pinnacle
2.05
Marathonbet
2.01
Betfair
2.00
888Sport
2.00
Under
Unibet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Arsenal over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
15.9%
@ 3.47-11.0%
Under
84.1%
@ 1.28+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.79
1xBet
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
Betfair
3.50
888Sport
3.50
Under
Unibet
1.32
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Coventry over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
52.3%
@ 2.13+8.4%
Under
47.7%
@ 1.66-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.30
Pinnacle
2.19
1xBet
2.15
Superbet
2.15
BetVictor
2.10
Under
Betano
1.72
888Sport
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.69
Bet365
1.67
Coventry over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
17.0%
@ 6.70+3.0%
Under
83.0%
@ 1.09-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.40
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.90
1xBet
6.70
Under
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.11
888Sport
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
Coventry over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 22.94-0.3%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.01+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
29.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
25.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Coventry over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.7%
@ 85.00-99.3%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
85.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Arsenal, so a minus line means Arsenal give that many goals of a start and Coventry receive them. At -1, Arsenal must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Arsenal win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Arsenal)Actual: Arsenal
Arsenal -2
23.0%
@ 2.46-13.7%
Draw -2
20.9%
@ 3.79-2.8%
Coventry +2
56.1%
@ 2.28+16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.54
Superbet
2.52
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.50
10Bet
2.38
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
Superbet
3.90
Betfair
3.75
Unibet
3.60
Away
10Bet
2.38
Unibet
2.35
Superbet
2.30
Bet365
2.25
Marathonbet
2.22
Handicap -1 (Arsenal)Actual: Arsenal
Arsenal -1
43.9%
@ 1.57-13.7%
Draw -1
23.8%
@ 3.98+1.1%
Coventry +1
32.3%
@ 4.60+12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.60
Betfair
1.57
10Bet
1.50
Draw
Superbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.95
Marathonbet
3.92
Away
10Bet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.65
Unibet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.50
Handicap +1 (Arsenal)Actual: Arsenal
Arsenal +1
88.8%
@ 1.04-2.1%
Draw +1
7.8%
@ 14.50+1.3%
Coventry -1
3.3%
@ 37.50+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Away
Betfair
41.00
Bet365
34.00
Handicap +2 (Arsenal)Actual: Arsenal
Arsenal +2
96.7%
Draw +2
2.6%
Coventry -2
0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arsenal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.27
1.20
0.27
0.80
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.36
0.50
0.33
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (19)
1.16
0.21
1.67
0.22
0.70
0.20
Clean sheet %
73% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Coventry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Coventry
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.30
0.73
0.40
0.87
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.89
0.33
0.50
0.38
1.20
0.30
vs Weaker (12)
0.67
0.25
1.00
0.43
0.20
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.7%
@ 1.26+4.3%
Under 0.5
21.3%
@ 3.67-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.80
Superbet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
William Hil
3.75
BetVictor
3.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
43.8%
@ 2.26+2.3%
Under 1.5
56.2%
@ 1.61-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.37
Marathonbet
2.36
1xBet
2.36
Pinnacle
2.35
Superbet
2.27
Under
Superbet
1.64
Unibet
1.63
William Hil
1.62
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.9%
@ 5.08-0.6%
Under 2.5
82.1%
@ 1.15+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
1xBet
5.35
Betfair
5.20
Betano
5.10
Under
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Unibet
1.15
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arsenal over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
74.8%
@ 1.38+7.2%
Under
25.2%
@ 2.88-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.39
Superbet
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Under
10Bet
3.00
Unibet
3.00
Pinnacle
2.99
Superbet
2.90
1xBet
2.75
Arsenal over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
41.2%
@ 2.80+8.0%
Under
58.8%
@ 1.39-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.95
Pinnacle
2.95
Marathonbet
2.89
1xBet
2.85
Superbet
2.67
Under
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Superbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.40
1xBet
1.37
Arsenal over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
19.4%
@ 6.62+5.5%
Under
80.6%
@ 1.07-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.40
Betano
6.70
Superbet
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Unibet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.09
Unibet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.04
Coventry over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
24.4%
@ 3.94+0.7%
Under
75.6%
@ 1.22-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.35
10Bet
4.33
Unibet
3.95
Marathonbet
3.82
Superbet
3.75
Under
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Coventry over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 15.12-2.6%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.02+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Coventry over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.6%
@ 85.00-99.4%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
85.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arsenal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.53
0.53
0.40
0.93
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.64
0.50
0.67
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (19)
0.89
0.47
0.56
0.22
1.20
0.70
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Coventry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Coventry
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
1.20
0.47
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.67
1.12
0.62
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (12)
1.00
0.67
1.29
0.29
0.60
1.20
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arsenal over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coventry over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coventry over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coventry over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
99.1%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Betano
1.03
Betfair
1.02
Superbet
1.02
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
96.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
96.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.3%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.08
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
88.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
BetVictor
1.04
-3.5%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
88.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
87.6%
1.04
Betano
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
85.9%
1.12
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
84.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
84.1%
1.28
Unibet
1.32
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
+11.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
83.0%
1.09
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.11
888Sport
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
-3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
82.1%
1.15
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Unibet
1.15
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
80.6%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Unibet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.04
-5.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
78.9%
1.10
1xBet
1.13
Betano
1.12
888Sport
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
-7.6%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
78.7%
1.26
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.2%
1.16
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
-2.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 0.5 HT goals
75.6%
1.22
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 HT goals
74.8%
1.38
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.39
Superbet
1.36
10Bet
1.35
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.0%
1.41
Superbet
1.45
Unibet
1.43
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.39
+8.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
72.8%
1.28
Unibet
1.32
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.23
-
-
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
70.1%
1.39
1xBet
1.39
-
-
-
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Arsenal · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Viktor Gyökeres30%
Kai Havertz26%
Bukayo Saka22%
Gabriel Jesus19%
Gabriel Martinelli17%
Leandro Trossard16%
Mikel Merino15%
Noni Madueke14%
Eberechi Eze14%
Martín Zubimendi9%
Ethan Nwaneri8%
Gabriel Magalhães8%
Max Dowman8%
Declan Rice7%
Jurriën Timber7%
Ben White3%
Martin Ødegaard3%
Riccardo Calafiori3%
Piero Hincapié3%
William Saliba2%
Kepa Arrizabalaga0%
David Raya0%
Christian Nørgaard0%
Myles Lewis-Skelly0%
Cristhian Mosquera0%
Marli Salmon0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kepa Arrizabalaga36%
Riccardo Calafiori19%
Martín Zubimendi14%
Cristhian Mosquera14%
Jurriën Timber14%
Myles Lewis-Skelly14%
Declan Rice13%
Mikel Merino12%
Gabriel Jesus11%
Viktor Gyökeres11%
Ben White10%
Gabriel Magalhães10%
Christian Nørgaard10%
Gabriel Martinelli10%
Kai Havertz9%
Piero Hincapié8%
Bukayo Saka6%
Leandro Trossard6%
William Saliba6%
Eberechi Eze4%
Noni Madueke2%
David Raya2%
Martin Ødegaard0%
Ethan Nwaneri0%
Max Dowman0%
Marli Salmon0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kai Havertz22%
Leandro Trossard20%
Martin Ødegaard19%
Declan Rice15%
Bukayo Saka14%
Jurriën Timber14%
Gabriel Martinelli13%
Myles Lewis-Skelly11%
Gabriel Magalhães10%
Christian Nørgaard10%
Mikel Merino9%
Eberechi Eze8%
Ben White7%
Viktor Gyökeres6%
Riccardo Calafiori6%
Piero Hincapié5%
Noni Madueke5%
Gabriel Jesus4%
Martín Zubimendi4%
William Saliba2%
Kepa Arrizabalaga0%
David Raya0%
Ethan Nwaneri0%
Cristhian Mosquera0%
Max Dowman0%
Marli Salmon0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Viktor Gyökeres24%
Bukayo Saka18%
Leandro Trossard16%
Eberechi Eze16%
Max Dowman15%
Gabriel Jesus15%
Mikel Merino12%
Noni Madueke10%
Kai Havertz9%
Ethan Nwaneri8%
Gabriel Martinelli8%
Martin Ødegaard6%
Jurriën Timber5%
Declan Rice4%
Martín Zubimendi4%
Riccardo Calafiori3%
Gabriel Magalhães2%
Kepa Arrizabalaga0%
David Raya0%
Ben White0%
William Saliba0%
Christian Nørgaard0%
Piero Hincapié0%
Myles Lewis-Skelly0%
Cristhian Mosquera0%
Marli Salmon0%
Coventry
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Taiwo Awoniyi33%
Victor Torp33%
Jack Rudoni33%
Gustavo Hamer0%
Brandon Thomas-Asante0%
Aurèle Amenda0%
Bobby Thomas0%
Caleb Yirenkyi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aurèle Amenda33%
Caleb Yirenkyi33%
Taiwo Awoniyi0%
Victor Torp0%
Jack Rudoni0%
Gustavo Hamer0%
Brandon Thomas-Asante0%
Bobby Thomas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Taiwo Awoniyi33%
Victor Torp33%
Caleb Yirenkyi33%
Jack Rudoni0%
Gustavo Hamer0%
Brandon Thomas-Asante0%
Aurèle Amenda0%
Bobby Thomas0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Taiwo Awoniyi33%
Victor Torp0%
Jack Rudoni0%
Gustavo Hamer0%
Brandon Thomas-Asante0%
Aurèle Amenda0%
Bobby Thomas0%
Caleb Yirenkyi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Arsenal's squad is €1170m more valuable than Coventry's (€1406m vs €237m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Arsenal's attack is €523m more valuable than Coventry's (€608m vs €85m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Arsenal's midfield is €238m more valuable than Coventry's (€290m vs €52m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Arsenal's defence is €410m more valuable than Coventry's (€508m vs €99m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Manchester City
Hull
Chelsea
Brentford
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Brighton
Manchester United
Sunderland
Ipswich
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Fulham
Aston Villa
Crystal Palace
Tottenham