This opponent (Manchester City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.07
2.50
0.81
1.71
1.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.20
1.60
1.00
1.50
1.33
1.67
vs Weaker (25)
2.32
0.96
2.71
0.71
1.82
1.27
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.3%
Under 1.5
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.4%
Under 2.5
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.0%
Under 3.5
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.9%
No
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
0-0
9.6%
0-1
9.4%
1-0
8.7%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
7.8%
0-2 ✓
6.8%
2-0
6.0%
Arsenal goals ↓
Manchester City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.6%
9.4%
6.8%
2.9%
0.9%
1
8.7%
14%
8.2%
3.5%
1.1%
2
6.0%
7.8%
5.0%
2.1%
0.7%
3
2.4%
3.1%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arsenal goals (down), columns = Manchester City goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newcastle
2.71
Sheffield Weds
2.50
Tottenham
2.40
Fleetwood Town
2.33
Crystal Palace
2.25
Coventry
2.00
Blackpool
2.00
Fulham
2.00
Wycombe
2.00
Watford
2.00
Leyton Orient
2.00
Everton
2.00
Manchester United
2.00
Derby
2.00
Liverpool
2.00
Brighton
2.00
Arsenal
1.80
Southampton
1.75
Stoke
1.75
Preston
1.75
Brentford
1.75
Walsall
1.67
Cardiff
1.50
Doncaster
1.50
Sheffield United
1.50
West Ham
1.50
Blackburn
1.50
Birmingham
1.50
Rotherham
1.50
Crawley Town
1.50
Chelsea
1.50
Swansea
1.50
Millwall
1.50
Norwich
1.50
Plymouth
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Harrogate
1.50
Oxford
1.50
Tranmere
1.50
Huddersfield
1.50
Wolves
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Barnsley
1.33
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
QPR
1.33
Barrow
1.33
Leicester
1.33
Bolton
1.33
Exeter
1.00
Reading
1.00
Notts County
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Luton
1.00
Ipswich
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Barnet
0.76
Oldham
0.70
Grimsby
0.50
Shrewsbury
0.50
Colchester
0.50
Bristol City
0.00
Cheltenham
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Salford
0.00
Port Vale
0.00
Wrexham
0.00
Leeds
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Burton
0.00
Stockport
0.00
Stevenage
0.00
Cambridge
0.00
Accrington
0.00
West Brom
0.00
Bromley
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Gillingham
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Hull
0.00
Portsmouth
0.00
Chesterfield
0.00
Swindon
0.00
Newport County
0.00
Crewe
0.00
Peterboro
0.00
Lincoln
0.00
Burnley
0.00
Charlton
0.00
Sunderland
0.00
Arsenal is 0.30 points better than Manchester City in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester United
5.00
Blackburn
3.50
Stevenage
3.00
Notts County
3.00
Brighton
3.00
Watford
2.67
Cardiff
2.50
Southampton
2.50
Chelsea
2.50
Stoke
2.50
Huddersfield
2.50
Crystal Palace
2.50
Liverpool
2.50
Sheffield Weds
2.25
Arsenal
2.20
Sheffield United
2.00
Port Vale
2.00
Wrexham
2.00
Blackpool
2.00
Reading
2.00
Crawley Town
2.00
Leicester
2.00
Leyton Orient
2.00
Everton
2.00
Norwich
2.00
Swindon
2.00
Preston
2.00
Wolves
2.00
Ipswich
2.00
Newcastle
1.86
Tottenham
1.80
Fleetwood Town
1.67
Rotherham
1.50
Shrewsbury
1.50
Fulham
1.50
Swansea
1.50
Plymouth
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Tranmere
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Brentford
1.50
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
QPR
1.33
Wycombe
1.33
Walsall
1.33
Bolton
1.33
Coventry
1.00
Doncaster
1.00
West Ham
1.00
Exeter
1.00
Grimsby
1.00
Stockport
1.00
Cambridge
1.00
West Brom
1.00
Barrow
1.00
Bromley
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Harrogate
1.00
Hull
1.00
Oxford
1.00
Derby
1.00
Chesterfield
1.00
Newport County
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Luton
1.00
Crewe
1.00
Lincoln
1.00
Colchester
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Barnet
0.99
Oldham
0.92
Barnsley
0.67
Birmingham
0.50
Millwall
0.50
Bristol City
0.00
Cheltenham
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Salford
0.00
Leeds
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Burton
0.00
Accrington
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Portsmouth
0.00
Peterboro
0.00
Burnley
0.00
Charlton
0.00
Sunderland
0.00
Arsenal is 0.70 goals better than Manchester City in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Newcastle
0.43
Fulham
0.50
Everton
0.50
Millwall
0.50
Oxford
0.50
Derby
0.50
Coventry
0.67
Blackpool
0.67
Wycombe
0.67
Watford
0.67
Sheffield Weds
0.75
Bristol City
1.00
Exeter
1.00
Birmingham
1.00
Fleetwood Town
1.00
Chelsea
1.00
Bournemouth
1.00
Swansea
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Plymouth
1.00
Stoke
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Portsmouth
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Walsall
1.00
Preston
1.00
Luton
1.00
Charlton
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Liverpool
1.17
Crystal Palace
1.25
Brentford
1.25
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
QPR
1.33
Leyton Orient
1.33
Arsenal
1.40
Doncaster
1.50
Sheffield United
1.50
Blackburn
1.50
Rotherham
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Huddersfield
1.50
Wolves
1.50
Colchester
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Leicester
1.67
Brighton
1.67
Tottenham
1.80
Bristol Rvs
2.00
Salford
2.00
Southampton
2.00
Reading
2.00
Northampton
2.00
Cambridge
2.00
West Brom
2.00
Bromley
2.00
Manchester United
2.00
Hull
2.00
Chesterfield
2.00
Tranmere
2.00
Crewe
2.00
Peterboro
2.00
Bolton
2.00
Lincoln
2.00
Burnley
2.00
Sunderland
2.00
Ipswich
2.00
Barrow
2.33
Cardiff
2.50
West Ham
2.50
Shrewsbury
2.50
Middlesbrough
2.50
Barnet
2.54
Barnsley
2.67
Oldham
2.73
Cheltenham
3.00
Grimsby
3.00
Port Vale
3.00
Leeds
3.00
Crawley Town
3.00
Accrington
3.00
Notts County
3.00
Gillingham
3.00
Harrogate
3.00
Norwich
3.50
Wrexham
4.00
Burton
4.00
Stevenage
4.00
Swindon
4.00
Newport County
4.00
Milton Keynes Dons
5.00
Stockport
6.00
Arsenal is 0.10 goals better than Manchester City in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Arsenal
For 5.4 · Against 4.0 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.6 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.3 · Against 12.1 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Manchester City
For 7.2 · Against 3.7 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 10.2 · Total 20.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arsenal
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.0
9.5
3.3
2.8
3.7
21.8
22.2
21.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
9.4
9.0
10.0
4.4
3.4
5.8
23.9
23.4
24.6
vs Weaker (38)
9.3
9.1
9.4
2.9
2.5
3.2
21.1
21.7
20.7
% over line
48%
46%
50%
44%
38%
50%
54%
54%
54%
% under line
52%
54%
50%
56%
62%
50%
46%
46%
46%
This opponent (Manchester City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.8
9.0
3.6
3.5
3.7
20.5
19.9
21.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
11.1
13.0
9.8
4.9
5.3
4.5
24.7
22.7
26.2
vs Weaker (43)
9.1
9.3
8.9
3.4
3.3
3.6
19.8
19.5
20.2
% over line
50%
52%
48%
52%
52%
52%
40%
40%
40%
% under line
50%
48%
52%
48%
48%
48%
60%
60%
60%
This opponent (Arsenal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
11.6
Sheffield United
11.6
Newcastle
11.4
Plymouth
11.2
Oxford
11.0
Southampton
10.9
Millwall
10.7
West Ham
10.7
Norwich
10.6
Middlesbrough
10.6
Portsmouth
10.6
Preston
10.6
Hull
10.6
Wigan
10.6
Huddersfield
10.6
Stoke
10.6
Bournemouth
10.6
Grimsby
10.6
Leicester
10.5
Bromley
10.5
Fulham
10.5
Barnsley
10.5
Swindon
10.4
Luton
10.4
Harrogate
10.4
Port Vale
10.3
Burton
10.3
Blackburn
10.3
Liverpool
10.3
Oldham
10.3
Coventry
10.2
Wrexham
10.2
Sheffield Weds
10.2
Cheltenham
10.2
QPR
10.2
Chesterfield
10.1
Nottingham Forest
10.1
Ipswich
10.1
Doncaster
10.1
Barnet
10.1
Cardiff
10.1
Walsall
10.0
Salford
10.0
Watford
9.9
Barrow
9.9
Bolton
9.9
Bradford
9.9
Derby
9.8
Chelsea
9.8
Exeter
9.8
Blackpool
9.8
Northampton
9.8
Wycombe
9.8
Tottenham
9.8
Swansea
9.8
Birmingham
9.7
Brentford
9.7
Peterboro
9.7
Mansfield
9.7
Fleetwood Town
9.7
Aston Villa
9.6
Bristol City
9.6
Rotherham
9.6
Manchester United
9.6
Reading
9.6
West Brom
9.6
Everton
9.6
Accrington
9.6
Tranmere
9.5
Notts County
9.5
Leyton Orient
9.5
AFC Wimbledon
9.5
Brighton
9.4
Burnley
9.4
Manchester City
9.4
Bristol Rvs
9.4
Crewe
9.3
Leeds
9.3
Arsenal
9.3
Lincoln
9.2
Wolves
9.2
Newport County
9.2
Shrewsbury
9.1
Charlton
9.0
Gillingham
9.0
Stockport
9.0
Sunderland
8.9
Colchester
8.9
Crystal Palace
8.8
Stevenage
8.6
Cambridge
8.6
Milton Keynes Dons
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Chelsea
4.7
Plymouth
4.6
Bournemouth
4.6
Bradford
4.6
Peterboro
4.5
Watford
4.4
Crawley Town
4.3
Manchester United
4.3
Colchester
4.3
Shrewsbury
4.3
Gillingham
4.3
Tottenham
4.2
Brighton
4.2
Notts County
4.2
Bristol Rvs
4.2
Aston Villa
4.2
Accrington
4.1
Crewe
4.1
Sunderland
4.1
Port Vale
4.1
Chesterfield
4.1
Ipswich
4.1
Grimsby
4.1
Walsall
4.0
Portsmouth
4.0
Derby
4.0
Nottingham Forest
4.0
Newcastle
4.0
Hull
4.0
Stoke
4.0
Lincoln
4.0
Tranmere
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Southampton
4.0
Leyton Orient
3.9
Huddersfield
3.9
Doncaster
3.9
Rotherham
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Crystal Palace
3.9
Salford
3.9
Coventry
3.9
Barnet
3.9
Wolves
3.8
Oldham
3.8
Bolton
3.8
Brentford
3.8
Bromley
3.8
Sheffield United
3.8
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Cheltenham
3.7
Charlton
3.7
Norwich
3.7
Wycombe
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Leicester
3.7
Middlesbrough
3.7
Burton
3.7
Mansfield
3.7
Stevenage
3.7
Birmingham
3.6
Luton
3.6
Fleetwood Town
3.6
Swindon
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Newport County
3.6
West Ham
3.6
Bristol City
3.6
Stockport
3.6
QPR
3.6
Everton
3.6
Oxford
3.5
Reading
3.5
Blackpool
3.5
Millwall
3.5
Exeter
3.5
Liverpool
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Barnsley
3.5
Preston
3.4
West Brom
3.4
Wrexham
3.4
Northampton
3.3
Arsenal
3.3
Cambridge
3.3
Barrow
3.3
Burnley
3.3
Leeds
3.2
Sheffield Weds
3.1
Wigan
3.1
AFC Wimbledon
3.1
Harrogate
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crewe
26.1
Colchester
25.3
Oldham
25.2
Crawley Town
25.1
Bradford
24.7
Salford
24.5
Stevenage
24.2
Peterboro
24.1
Grimsby
24.1
Notts County
24.0
Wolves
24.0
Gillingham
24.0
Milton Keynes Dons
24.0
Bristol Rvs
24.0
Huddersfield
23.9
Luton
23.9
Barnet
23.8
Cheltenham
23.8
Plymouth
23.7
Bournemouth
23.6
Rotherham
23.5
Ipswich
23.5
Blackpool
23.4
Aston Villa
23.4
Cambridge
23.3
AFC Wimbledon
23.2
Nottingham Forest
23.2
Doncaster
23.2
Swansea
23.2
Walsall
23.1
Tranmere
23.1
Lincoln
23.0
Wigan
22.9
Southampton
22.9
Shrewsbury
22.9
Stockport
22.9
West Ham
22.8
Bolton
22.8
Portsmouth
22.6
Mansfield
22.6
Chelsea
22.6
Fleetwood Town
22.5
Brighton
22.5
Reading
22.5
Newport County
22.4
Leicester
22.4
Exeter
22.4
Derby
22.3
Tottenham
22.3
Northampton
22.3
Leyton Orient
22.3
Middlesbrough
22.2
Blackburn
22.2
Sunderland
22.2
Birmingham
22.2
Everton
22.0
Bromley
22.0
Port Vale
22.0
Burton
22.0
Chesterfield
21.8
Arsenal
21.8
Millwall
21.8
Accrington
21.8
Oxford
21.8
Charlton
21.7
Hull
21.7
Sheffield United
21.7
Leeds
21.6
Wycombe
21.6
Swindon
21.6
Cardiff
21.6
QPR
21.5
Manchester United
21.5
West Brom
21.5
Harrogate
21.5
Newcastle
21.4
Sheffield Weds
21.4
Barnsley
21.2
Norwich
21.1
Coventry
21.0
Stoke
20.9
Watford
20.9
Bristol City
20.8
Liverpool
20.7
Crystal Palace
20.7
Burnley
20.6
Manchester City
20.5
Barrow
20.4
Preston
20.2
Fulham
19.7
Brentford
19.7
Wrexham
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
43.4%
Under 9.5
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
36.4%
Under 3.5
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
41.7%
Under 21.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Arsenal or Draw✗ Miss
63.0%
Avg Implied -
33%
30%
37%
covers Arsenal + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arsenal or Manchester City✓ Hit
70.4%
Avg Implied -
33%
30%
37%
covers Arsenal + Manchester City
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Manchester City✓ Hit
66.6%
Avg Implied -
33%
30%
37%
covers Draw + Manchester City
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Arsenal over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
70.1%
Under
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.0%
Under
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.3%
Under
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
36.7%
Under
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.9%
Under
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Arsenal, so a minus line means Arsenal give that many goals of a start and Manchester City receive them. At -1, Arsenal must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Arsenal win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Arsenal)Actual: Manchester City
Arsenal -2
4.8%
Draw -2
9.8%
Manchester City +2
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Arsenal)Actual: Manchester City
Arsenal -1
14.6%
Draw -1
18.8%
Manchester City +1
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Arsenal)Actual: Manchester City
Arsenal +1
63.0%
Draw +1
20.0%
Manchester City -1
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Arsenal)Actual: Draw
Arsenal +2
83.0%
Draw +2
11.1%
Manchester City -2
5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arsenal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.27
0.93
0.21
0.88
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.43
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (23)
0.96
0.22
1.10
0.10
0.85
0.31
Clean sheet %
73% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.40
1.75
0.19
0.79
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.80
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (25)
1.40
0.28
1.86
0.14
0.82
0.45
Clean sheet %
70% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arsenal over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arsenal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.57
1.21
0.50
1.25
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.00
0.71
0.75
0.50
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.30
0.52
1.40
0.50
1.23
0.54
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.67
0.75
0.62
0.93
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.60
0.00
1.00
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (25)
0.92
0.68
0.86
0.57
1.00
0.82
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arsenal over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Arsenal
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Viktor Gyökeres30%
Kai Havertz26%
Bukayo Saka22%
Gabriel Jesus19%
Gabriel Martinelli17%
Leandro Trossard16%
Mikel Merino15%
Noni Madueke14%
Eberechi Eze14%
Martín Zubimendi9%
Ethan Nwaneri8%
Gabriel Magalhães8%
Max Dowman8%
Declan Rice7%
Jurriën Timber7%
Ben White3%
Martin Ødegaard3%
Riccardo Calafiori3%
Piero Hincapié3%
William Saliba2%
Kepa Arrizabalaga0%
David Raya0%
Christian Nørgaard0%
Myles Lewis-Skelly0%
Cristhian Mosquera0%
Marli Salmon0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kepa Arrizabalaga36%
Riccardo Calafiori19%
Martín Zubimendi14%
Cristhian Mosquera14%
Jurriën Timber14%
Myles Lewis-Skelly14%
Declan Rice13%
Mikel Merino12%
Gabriel Jesus11%
Viktor Gyökeres11%
Ben White10%
Gabriel Magalhães10%
Christian Nørgaard10%
Gabriel Martinelli10%
Kai Havertz9%
Piero Hincapié8%
Bukayo Saka6%
Leandro Trossard6%
William Saliba6%
Eberechi Eze4%
Noni Madueke2%
David Raya2%
Martin Ødegaard0%
Ethan Nwaneri0%
Max Dowman0%
Marli Salmon0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kai Havertz22%
Leandro Trossard20%
Martin Ødegaard19%
Declan Rice15%
Bukayo Saka14%
Jurriën Timber14%
Gabriel Martinelli13%
Myles Lewis-Skelly11%
Gabriel Magalhães10%
Christian Nørgaard10%
Mikel Merino9%
Eberechi Eze8%
Ben White7%
Viktor Gyökeres6%
Riccardo Calafiori6%
Piero Hincapié5%
Noni Madueke5%
Gabriel Jesus4%
Martín Zubimendi4%
William Saliba2%
Kepa Arrizabalaga0%
David Raya0%
Ethan Nwaneri0%
Cristhian Mosquera0%
Max Dowman0%
Marli Salmon0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Viktor Gyökeres24%
Bukayo Saka18%
Leandro Trossard16%
Eberechi Eze16%
Max Dowman15%
Gabriel Jesus15%
Mikel Merino12%
Noni Madueke10%
Kai Havertz9%
Ethan Nwaneri8%
Gabriel Martinelli8%
Martin Ødegaard6%
Jurriën Timber5%
Declan Rice4%
Martín Zubimendi4%
Riccardo Calafiori3%
Gabriel Magalhães2%
Kepa Arrizabalaga0%
David Raya0%
Ben White0%
William Saliba0%
Christian Nørgaard0%
Piero Hincapié0%
Myles Lewis-Skelly0%
Cristhian Mosquera0%
Marli Salmon0%
Manchester City
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Erling Haaland55%
Antoine Semenyo42%
Rayan Cherki20%
Max Alleyne17%
Jérémy Doku15%
Phil Foden14%
Omar Marmoush14%
Nico O'Reilly13%
Tijjani Reijnders13%
Savinho11%
Marc Guéhi10%
Joško Gvardiol8%
Rodri6%
Rúben Dias6%
Bernardo Silva6%
Nico González5%
Rico Lewis5%
Matheus Nunes2%
John Stones0%
Gianluigi Donnarumma0%
Mateo Kovačić0%
Nathan Aké0%
Rayan Aït-Nouri0%
James Trafford0%
Oscar Bobb0%
Abdukodir Khusanov0%
Divine Mukasa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bernardo Silva28%
Gianluigi Donnarumma23%
Nico González20%
Rodri19%
Abdukodir Khusanov17%
Nico O'Reilly15%
Rayan Aït-Nouri15%
Matheus Nunes15%
Rico Lewis14%
Rúben Dias12%
Savinho11%
Phil Foden10%
Marc Guéhi10%
Omar Marmoush9%
Joško Gvardiol8%
Oscar Bobb7%
Tijjani Reijnders4%
Erling Haaland4%
Rayan Cherki4%
Antoine Semenyo4%
Nathan Aké3%
John Stones0%
Jérémy Doku0%
Mateo Kovačić0%
James Trafford0%
Max Alleyne0%
Divine Mukasa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Divine Mukasa33%
Rayan Cherki24%
Jérémy Doku19%
Joško Gvardiol16%
Erling Haaland16%
Rayan Aït-Nouri15%
Matheus Nunes15%
Rico Lewis14%
Tijjani Reijnders13%
Phil Foden12%
Antoine Semenyo12%
Nico O'Reilly12%
Mateo Kovačić11%
Bernardo Silva9%
Omar Marmoush9%
Oscar Bobb7%
Savinho6%
Marc Guéhi5%
Rodri0%
Rúben Dias0%
John Stones0%
Gianluigi Donnarumma0%
Nathan Aké0%
Nico González0%
James Trafford0%
Max Alleyne0%
Abdukodir Khusanov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Erling Haaland53%
Antoine Semenyo19%
Omar Marmoush17%
Tijjani Reijnders15%
Rayan Cherki12%
Phil Foden10%
Savinho8%
Rodri6%
Marc Guéhi5%
Rico Lewis5%
Jérémy Doku4%
Joško Gvardiol4%
Nico O'Reilly4%
Rúben Dias0%
John Stones0%
Bernardo Silva0%
Gianluigi Donnarumma0%
Mateo Kovačić0%
Nathan Aké0%
Rayan Aït-Nouri0%
Matheus Nunes0%
Nico González0%
James Trafford0%
Oscar Bobb0%
Max Alleyne0%
Abdukodir Khusanov0%
Divine Mukasa0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
COV (27)
€237m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
HUL (27)
€105m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
LEI (22)
€69m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
Arsenal's squad is €81m more valuable than Manchester City's (€1406m vs €1326m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
HUL (7)
€22m
LEI (7)
€20m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
BAR (3)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
Arsenal's attack is €27m less valuable than Manchester City's (€608m vs €635m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
IPS (7)
€66m
SOU (5)
€53m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
HUL (8)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
FUL (3)
€28m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
LEI (4)
€13m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
MKD (6)
€7m
BLB (7)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
LUT (6)
€4m
BOL (4)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Arsenal's midfield is €130m more valuable than Manchester City's (€290m vs €160m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
SOU (15)
€79m
HUL (12)
€52m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
LEI (11)
€36m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
LUT (10)
€12m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
Arsenal's defence is €22m less valuable than Manchester City's (€508m vs €531m).
England: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Manchester United
Aston Villa
Liverpool
Bournemouth
Sunderland
Brighton
Brentford
Chelsea
Fulham
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Crystal Palace
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham
West Ham
Burnley
Wolves