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Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad Result & Analysis

Date: 18/04/2026
Time: 19:00
Final 2-2
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Vs
40%
27%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad
Spain: Copa del Rey
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The contest between Atletico Madrid and Real Sociedad is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win. The probabilities are 40% for a home victory, 27% for a draw and 32% for an away win, so the home side is the slight favourite. The average goal count sits at 2.9, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.8% chance. Atletico, playing at home against a weaker opponent, averages 2.11 goals scored and 1.00 conceded, whereas Real Sociedad, on the road against a stronger side, averages 1.5 scored and 3.5 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Under 6.5 (97.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.1%), Under 5.5 (92.8%), Home +2 handicap (85.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (84.6%) and Under 4.5 (83.6%). Each pick is presented with its exact probability, and the edge percentages are noted where supplied.

Results analysis

The Copa del Rey fixture ended in a 2-2 draw, a shock that left the pre-match favourite, a home win, on the wrong side of the result. Atletico Madrid, riding a recent string of wins, were tipped to triumph with a 40% chance, yet the match finished level. The model’s selection of a home win was incorrect. Every other suggested pick proved accurate: Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.1%, Under 6.5 at 97.2%, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.2%, Home under 3.5 goals at 93.1%, Under 5.5 at 92.8%, Home +2 handicap at 85.0%, Away under 2.5 goals at 84.6%, and Under 4.5 at 83.6%. The final tally of four goals matched the model’s expectation of a low-scoring affair.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Atletico Madrid win✗ Miss
40.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad win✗ Miss
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-503L32W52W10W23L23L12L20W12L12LA·BAR03/03H·REA07/03H·TOT10/03H·GET14/03A·TOT18/03A·REA22/03H·BAR04/04A·BAR08/04A·SEV11/04H·BAR14/04
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.931.302.311.151.651.41
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)2.101.802.751.501.672.00
vs Weaker (20)1.851.052.111.001.641.09
Clean sheet %33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Real SociedadReal Sociedad

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W14L33D10W10W23L31W13L20W33DA·ATH11/02A·REA14/02H·OVI21/02A·MAL28/02H·ATH04/03A·ATL07/03H·OSA15/03A·VIL20/03H·LEV04/04H·ALA11/04
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.871.372.211.501.561.25
vs Stronger (4)1.502.251.501.001.503.50
vs Similar (15)1.801.272.111.331.331.17
vs Weaker (11)2.091.183.002.331.750.75
Clean sheet %20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.3%
Under 1.5
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.8%
Under 2.5
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.5%
Under 3.5
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.1%
No
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.8%
1-0
7.4%
0-0
6.8%
2-0
6.6%
0-1
6.4%
2-2 ✓
6.0%
Atletico Madrid goals ↓
Real Sociedad goals →
01234
06.8%6.4%5.1%2.3%0.8%
17.4%13%7.8%3.5%1.2%
26.6%8.9%6.0%2.7%0.9%
33.3%4.5%3.0%1.4%0.5%
41.3%1.7%1.2%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Atletico Madrid goals (down), columns = Real Sociedad goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Barcelona
2.67
Osasuna
2.40
Valencia
2.40
Real Sociedad
2.29
Atletico Madrid
2.29
Pontevedra
2.25
Elche
2.25
Almeria
2.25
Rayo Vallecano
2.25
Real Betis
2.25
Ourense CF
2.25
Celta Vigo
2.25
Real Madrid
2.17
Zaragoza
2.00
Leganes
2.00
Sevilla
2.00
Las Palmas
2.00
Valladolid
2.00
Castellón
2.00
Getafe
2.00
Huesca
2.00
Girona
2.00
Estepona
2.00
Orihuela
2.00
Eldense
2.00
Racing Santander
2.00
FC Cartagena
2.00
Racing Ferrol
2.00
Alaves
2.00
UD Logroñés
1.67
Gimnastic
1.50
Manises
1.50
Burgos
1.50
Cacereño
1.50
FC Andorra
1.50
Cadiz
1.50
Espanyol
1.50
Sporting Gijon
1.50
Cultural Leonesa
1.50
AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Europa Fc
1.50
Sant Andreu
1.50
Villarreal
1.50
Tenerife
1.33
Granada CF
1.33
Oviedo
1.00
Cordoba
1.00
UCAM Murcia
0.97
Rayo Majadahonda
0.97
Sámano
0.97
Quintanar del Rey
0.97
Real Avilés
0.97
CD Yuncos
0.97
Reddis
0.97
Mutilvera
0.97
Azuaga
0.97
Náxara
0.97
Sant Just
0.97
UD Ourense
0.97
Atlético Astorga
0.97
Valle Egüés
0.97
Deportivo Getxo
0.97
Ebro
0.97
Atlètic Lleida
0.97
CF Talavera
0.97
Torrent
0.97
Navalcarnero
0.97
Guadalajara
0.97
Palma del Rio
0.97
Teruel
0.97
Atlético Baleares
0.97
Caudal
0.97
Lorca Deportiva
0.97
Los Garres
0.97
Puerto de Vega
0.97
Atlético Tordesillas
0.97
Constància
0.97
Maracena
0.97
La Unión Atlético
0.97
Inter de Valdemoro
0.97
CD Sant Jordi
0.97
SD Negreira
0.97
Cieza
0.97
Toledo
0.97
Roda (Spain)
0.97
San Fernando CD
0.97
Antoniano
0.97
Arenas Getxo
0.97
RSD Alcalá
0.97
Tropezón
0.97
Portugalete
0.97
Puente Genil
0.97
SD Logroñés
0.97
Real Murcia
0.97
Mérida AD
0.97
Textil Escudo
0.97
Campanario
0.97
Betis Valladolid
0.97
Tarazona
0.97
Lourdes
0.97
Universitario FC
0.97
Sporting Ceuta
0.97
Atletico Calatayud
0.97
Atlético Melilla
0.97
Alberite
0.97
Antequera
0.97
Sabadell
0.68
Ponferradina
0.67
Athletic Club
0.50
Real Ávila
0.50
Ibiza
0.00
Extremadura 1924
0.00
Eibar
0.00
Levante
0.00
Mirandes
0.00
Langreo
0.00
Poblense
0.00
Malaga
0.00
Deportivo La Coruna
0.00
Numancia
0.00
Mallorca
0.00
Real Jaén
0.00
Ciudad de Lucena
0.00
Utebo
0.00
Albacete
0.00
Juventud Torremolinos
0.00
Atletico Madrid and Real Sociedad are level in average points per game (both 2.29).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Celta Vigo
4.25
Barcelona
3.67
Zaragoza
3.50
Valladolid
3.33
Real Madrid
3.33
Las Palmas
3.00
Rayo Vallecano
3.00
Villarreal
3.00
Real Betis
2.75
Atletico Madrid
2.71
Osasuna
2.60
Burgos
2.50
Estepona
2.50
Almeria
2.50
Real Sociedad
2.43
Sevilla
2.33
Racing Santander
2.33
Leganes
2.20
Pontevedra
2.00
Elche
2.00
Girona
2.00
Malaga
2.00
Espanyol
2.00
Racing Ferrol
2.00
Valencia
1.60
Manises
1.50
Cacereño
1.50
Cadiz
1.50
Cultural Leonesa
1.50
AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Europa Fc
1.50
Sant Andreu
1.50
Ourense CF
1.50
Alaves
1.50
Granada CF
1.33
UCAM Murcia
1.19
Rayo Majadahonda
1.19
Sámano
1.19
Quintanar del Rey
1.19
Real Avilés
1.19
CD Yuncos
1.19
Reddis
1.19
Mutilvera
1.19
Azuaga
1.19
Náxara
1.19
Sant Just
1.19
UD Ourense
1.19
Atlético Astorga
1.19
Valle Egüés
1.19
Deportivo Getxo
1.19
Ebro
1.19
Atlètic Lleida
1.19
CF Talavera
1.19
Torrent
1.19
Navalcarnero
1.19
Guadalajara
1.19
Palma del Rio
1.19
Teruel
1.19
Atlético Baleares
1.19
Caudal
1.19
Lorca Deportiva
1.19
Los Garres
1.19
Puerto de Vega
1.19
Atlético Tordesillas
1.19
Constància
1.19
Maracena
1.19
La Unión Atlético
1.19
Inter de Valdemoro
1.19
CD Sant Jordi
1.19
SD Negreira
1.19
Cieza
1.19
Toledo
1.19
Roda (Spain)
1.19
San Fernando CD
1.19
Antoniano
1.19
Arenas Getxo
1.19
RSD Alcalá
1.19
Tropezón
1.19
Portugalete
1.19
Puente Genil
1.19
SD Logroñés
1.19
Real Murcia
1.19
Mérida AD
1.19
Textil Escudo
1.19
Campanario
1.19
Betis Valladolid
1.19
Tarazona
1.19
Lourdes
1.19
Universitario FC
1.19
Sporting Ceuta
1.19
Atletico Calatayud
1.19
Atlético Melilla
1.19
Alberite
1.19
Antequera
1.19
Tenerife
1.00
Gimnastic
1.00
Cordoba
1.00
Castellón
1.00
Levante
1.00
Getafe
1.00
Huesca
1.00
Mirandes
1.00
Langreo
1.00
Poblense
1.00
Orihuela
1.00
FC Andorra
1.00
Athletic Club
1.00
FC Cartagena
1.00
Real Ávila
1.00
Ciudad de Lucena
1.00
Albacete
1.00
Juventud Torremolinos
1.00
Sabadell
0.84
Eldense
0.67
Sporting Gijon
0.50
Ponferradina
0.33
UD Logroñés
0.33
Ibiza
0.00
Oviedo
0.00
Extremadura 1924
0.00
Eibar
0.00
Deportivo La Coruna
0.00
Numancia
0.00
Mallorca
0.00
Real Jaén
0.00
Utebo
0.00
Atletico Madrid is 0.29 goals better than Real Sociedad in terms of goals scored per game (2.71 vs 2.43).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Oviedo
0.00
Girona
0.00
UD Logroñés
0.00
Huesca
0.33
Pontevedra
0.50
Castellón
0.50
Orihuela
0.50
Cadiz
0.50
Sporting Gijon
0.50
Tenerife
0.67
Eldense
0.67
FC Cartagena
0.67
Real Sociedad
0.86
Atletico Madrid
0.86
Gimnastic
1.00
Ibiza
1.00
Cordoba
1.00
Elche
1.00
Eibar
1.00
Getafe
1.00
FC Andorra
1.00
Granada CF
1.00
Espanyol
1.00
Deportivo La Coruna
1.00
Numancia
1.00
Cultural Leonesa
1.00
Ponferradina
1.00
Villarreal
1.00
Alaves
1.00
Barcelona
1.17
Valencia
1.20
Ourense CF
1.25
Osasuna
1.40
Zaragoza
1.50
Burgos
1.50
Athletic Club
1.50
Almeria
1.50
Rayo Vallecano
1.50
AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Europa Fc
1.50
Sevilla
1.67
Las Palmas
1.67
Racing Ferrol
1.67
Real Betis
1.75
Leganes
1.80
Real Madrid
1.83
UCAM Murcia
1.87
Rayo Majadahonda
1.87
Sámano
1.87
Quintanar del Rey
1.87
Real Avilés
1.87
CD Yuncos
1.87
Reddis
1.87
Mutilvera
1.87
Azuaga
1.87
Náxara
1.87
Sant Just
1.87
UD Ourense
1.87
Atlético Astorga
1.87
Valle Egüés
1.87
Deportivo Getxo
1.87
Ebro
1.87
Atlètic Lleida
1.87
CF Talavera
1.87
Torrent
1.87
Navalcarnero
1.87
Guadalajara
1.87
Palma del Rio
1.87
Teruel
1.87
Atlético Baleares
1.87
Caudal
1.87
Lorca Deportiva
1.87
Los Garres
1.87
Puerto de Vega
1.87
Atlético Tordesillas
1.87
Constància
1.87
Maracena
1.87
La Unión Atlético
1.87
Inter de Valdemoro
1.87
CD Sant Jordi
1.87
SD Negreira
1.87
Cieza
1.87
Toledo
1.87
Roda (Spain)
1.87
San Fernando CD
1.87
Antoniano
1.87
Arenas Getxo
1.87
RSD Alcalá
1.87
Tropezón
1.87
Portugalete
1.87
Puente Genil
1.87
SD Logroñés
1.87
Real Murcia
1.87
Mérida AD
1.87
Textil Escudo
1.87
Campanario
1.87
Betis Valladolid
1.87
Tarazona
1.87
Lourdes
1.87
Universitario FC
1.87
Sporting Ceuta
1.87
Atletico Calatayud
1.87
Atlético Melilla
1.87
Alberite
1.87
Antequera
1.87
Valladolid
2.00
Manises
2.00
Mirandes
2.00
Langreo
2.00
Estepona
2.00
Cacereño
2.00
Racing Santander
2.00
Real Ávila
2.00
Ciudad de Lucena
2.00
Sant Andreu
2.00
Celta Vigo
2.00
Albacete
2.00
Juventud Torremolinos
2.00
Sabadell
2.64
Malaga
3.00
Mallorca
3.00
Real Jaén
3.00
Extremadura 1924
4.00
Levante
4.00
Utebo
4.00
Poblense
6.00
Atletico Madrid and Real Sociedad are level in goals conceded per game (both 0.86).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Barcelona
58%
Real Madrid
50%
Atletico Madrid
43%
Real Sociedad
42%
Atletico Madrid is 1.0 percentage points better than Real Sociedad in terms of average possession (43% vs 42%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid

For 4.0 · Against 5.8 · Total 9.8

🚩 Corners

150246617191477103428115612810514136915H·BARA·SEVA·BARH·BARA·REAA·TOTH·GETH·TOTH·REAA·BAR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.7

🟨 Cards

10024433734234345111328610677524H·BARA·SEVA·BARH·BARA·REAA·TOTH·GETH·TOTH·REAA·BAR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 9.2 · Total 21.3

⚠️ Fouls

2701581271761511152816111115126107923192326172422271616H·BARA·SEVA·BARH·BARA·REAA·TOTH·GETH·TOTH·REAA·BAR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Real SociedadReal Sociedad

For 6.4 · Against 5.2 · Total 11.6

🚩 Corners

19095115543518118737664441416989191013108H·ALAH·LEVA·VILH·OSAA·ATLH·ATHA·MALH·OVIA·REAA·ATH
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.7

🟨 Cards

70342323112522111317523272324H·ALAH·LEVA·VILH·OSAA·ATLH·ATHA·MALH·OVIA·REAA·ATH
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 12.0 · Total 25.5

⚠️ Fouls

300111811151110161110614162261316910181229262127163028291930H·ALAH·LEVA·VILH·OSAA·ATLH·ATHA·MALH·OVIA·REAA·ATH
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.511.010.14.14.24.120.720.021.3
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (16)10.29.610.75.35.75.022.825.021.0
vs Weaker (34)10.711.59.83.63.63.619.717.921.5
% over line60%62%58%56%54%58%46%38%54%
% under line40%38%42%44%46%42%54%62%46%
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Real SociedadReal Sociedad

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.711.310.14.44.84.026.327.525.2
vs Stronger (9)12.314.011.53.35.72.220.223.018.8
vs Similar (24)10.811.010.55.24.85.727.228.825.0
vs Weaker (17)9.510.88.73.94.53.528.526.829.6
% over line60%74%48%62%74%52%75%87%64%
% under line40%26%52%38%26%48%25%13%36%
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Antoniano
22.0
CF Talavera
16.0
Real Ávila
14.0
Atlético Baleares
12.0
Ourense CF
11.7
Rayo Vallecano
11.4
Real Madrid
11.0
Orihuela
11.0
Real Murcia
11.0
Sant Andreu
11.0
Ebro
11.0
Guadalajara
11.0
Albacete
11.0
Barcelona
10.8
Real Sociedad
10.6
Racing Santander
10.6
Atletico Madrid
10.5
Mallorca
10.4
Cordoba
10.3
Zaragoza
10.2
Levante
10.1
Sporting Gijon
10.0
Navalcarnero
10.0
Alaves
10.0
Girona
9.9
Castellón
9.8
Numancia
9.8
FC Andorra
9.8
Ibiza
9.7
Cadiz
9.7
Valencia
9.7
Espanyol
9.6
Almeria
9.5
Sevilla
9.5
Leganes
9.5
Granada CF
9.4
Malaga
9.4
Oviedo
9.4
Rayo Majadahonda
9.4
Deportivo La Coruna
9.4
Huesca
9.3
Athletic Club
9.3
Ponferradina
9.3
Mirandes
9.2
Eldense
9.2
Real Betis
9.2
Cultural Leonesa
9.1
Villarreal
9.1
Valladolid
9.1
Tenerife
9.1
AD Ceuta FC
9.1
Gimnastic
9.0
Extremadura 1924
9.0
Osasuna
9.0
Racing Ferrol
9.0
Eibar
9.0
Getafe
8.8
Sabadell
8.8
FC Cartagena
8.8
Elche
8.6
Celta Vigo
8.5
Las Palmas
8.4
Burgos
8.3
Portugalete
8.0
Ciudad de Lucena
7.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Sant Andreu
10.0
Racing Santander
6.6
Zaragoza
6.1
Orihuela
6.0
Ourense CF
6.0
Cordoba
6.0
Gimnastic
5.9
Burgos
5.8
Rayo Majadahonda
5.8
Castellón
5.8
Cultural Leonesa
5.7
Mirandes
5.7
Numancia
5.6
Almeria
5.5
Getafe
5.4
Valladolid
5.4
Granada CF
5.4
Eibar
5.3
FC Andorra
5.3
Malaga
5.3
Sevilla
5.2
Rayo Vallecano
5.2
Alaves
5.2
AD Ceuta FC
5.1
Deportivo La Coruna
5.0
Sporting Gijon
5.0
Portugalete
5.0
Las Palmas
5.0
Levante
4.9
Leganes
4.9
Celta Vigo
4.8
Huesca
4.8
Tenerife
4.8
Ponferradina
4.8
Real Sociedad
4.8
Cadiz
4.7
Valencia
4.7
Osasuna
4.7
Real Madrid
4.7
Real Betis
4.7
Albacete
4.7
Eldense
4.6
Sabadell
4.6
Real Murcia
4.5
Barcelona
4.5
Espanyol
4.5
Elche
4.4
Mallorca
4.4
Athletic Club
4.4
Racing Ferrol
4.3
Oviedo
4.3
Atletico Madrid
4.3
Villarreal
4.3
Girona
4.3
FC Cartagena
4.2
Ibiza
4.2
Guadalajara
4.0
Pontevedra
3.0
Extremadura 1924
3.0
Antoniano
3.0
Real Ávila
3.0
Navalcarnero
2.0
Ebro
2.0
Atlético Baleares
2.0
CF Talavera
1.5
Ciudad de Lucena
1.0

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Sant Andreu
40.0
Portugalete
36.0
Navalcarnero
33.0
Ourense CF
32.7
Orihuela
32.0
Antoniano
31.0
Numancia
30.6
Rayo Majadahonda
30.5
Gimnastic
30.1
Cordoba
29.7
Alaves
29.4
Getafe
29.4
Real Ávila
29.0
Ibiza
28.1
Mirandes
27.9
Valladolid
27.9
Sabadell
27.8
Elche
27.6
FC Andorra
27.3
AD Ceuta FC
27.3
Tenerife
27.3
Las Palmas
27.2
Eibar
27.0
Extremadura 1924
27.0
Racing Santander
27.0
Granada CF
26.9
Sevilla
26.8
Zaragoza
26.8
Almeria
26.6
Burgos
26.5
Castellón
26.5
Cultural Leonesa
26.3
Real Sociedad
26.1
Cadiz
26.1
Racing Ferrol
26.0
Athletic Club
26.0
Leganes
25.9
Malaga
25.5
Oviedo
25.4
Espanyol
25.3
Osasuna
25.0
Huesca
25.0
Eldense
25.0
Atlético Baleares
25.0
Levante
24.8
Villarreal
24.6
Rayo Vallecano
24.6
Celta Vigo
24.5
Valencia
24.4
Real Betis
24.3
Girona
24.3
FC Cartagena
24.1
Ponferradina
23.8
Mallorca
23.8
Deportivo La Coruna
23.5
Real Madrid
23.0
Barcelona
22.0
Ebro
22.0
Sporting Gijon
21.9
Albacete
21.7
Atletico Madrid
20.7
Real Murcia
20.0
Ciudad de Lucena
20.0
Guadalajara
20.0
CF Talavera
18.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
74.2%
Under 9.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
62.9%
Under 3.5
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
61.2%
Under 21.5
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Atletico Madrid or Draw✓ Hit
67.5%
Avg Implied -
40%
27%
32%
covers Atletico Madrid + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid or Real Sociedad✗ Miss
72.9%
Avg Implied -
40%
27%
32%
covers Atletico Madrid + Real Sociedad
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Real Sociedad✓ Hit
59.6%
Avg Implied -
40%
27%
32%
covers Draw + Real Sociedad
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.3%
Under
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
45.1%
Under
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.8%
Under
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.1%
Under
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
39.1%
Under
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.4%
Under
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Atletico Madrid, so a minus line means Atletico Madrid give that many goals of a start and Real Sociedad receive them. At -1, Atletico Madrid must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Atletico Madrid win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Atletico Madrid)Actual: Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid -2
8.1%
Draw -2
12.4%
Real Sociedad +2
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Atletico Madrid)Actual: Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid -1
20.5%
Draw -1
19.9%
Real Sociedad +1
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Atletico Madrid)Actual: Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid +1
67.5%
Draw +1
17.5%
Real Sociedad -1
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Atletico Madrid)Actual: Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid +2
85.0%
Draw +2
9.7%
Real Sociedad -2
5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L11D41W10W01L10W11D10W12L12LA·BAR03/03H·REA07/03H·TOT10/03H·GET14/03A·TOT18/03A·REA22/03H·BAR04/04A·BAR08/04A·SEV11/04H·BAR14/04
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.631.310.690.820.59
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)1.400.902.501.000.670.83
vs Weaker (20)0.850.500.780.560.910.45
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Real SociedadReal Sociedad

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D13L00D10W00D11D20W03L10W22DA·ATH11/02A·REA14/02H·OVI21/02A·MAL28/02H·ATH04/03A·ATL07/03H·OSA15/03A·VIL20/03H·LEV04/04H·ALA11/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.670.930.570.500.75
vs Stronger (4)0.751.000.500.001.002.00
vs Similar (15)0.670.670.890.560.330.83
vs Weaker (11)0.730.551.331.000.500.38
Clean sheet %57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L21W11D00D22D13L01L10W00D00DA·BAR03/03H·REA07/03H·TOT10/03H·GET14/03A·TOT18/03A·REA22/03H·BAR04/04A·BAR08/04A·SEV11/04H·BAR14/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.671.000.460.820.82
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.700.900.250.501.001.17
vs Weaker (20)1.000.551.330.440.730.64
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Real SociedadReal Sociedad

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L33D00D10W12L11D10W10W11DA·ATH11/02A·REA14/02H·OVI21/02A·MAL28/02H·ATH04/03A·ATL07/03H·OSA15/03A·VIL20/03H·LEV04/04H·ALA11/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.701.290.931.060.50
vs Stronger (4)0.751.251.001.000.501.50
vs Similar (15)1.130.601.220.781.000.33
vs Weaker (11)1.360.641.671.331.250.38
Clean sheet %47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 7.599.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 6.597.2%-------✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals95.2%-------✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals93.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.592.8%-------✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap85.0%-------✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals84.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.583.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners83.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards80.7%-------✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals80.2%-------✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap79.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.579.3%-------✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals78.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls76.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 9.5 corners74.2%-------✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals74.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards73.1%-------✓ Hit
Home or Away72.9%-------✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls70.6%-------✗ Miss

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (65)
€1301m
RM (42)
€1256m
AM (35)
€540m
VIL (39)
€360m
RS (37)
€270m
AC (39)
€236m
CV (35)
€200m
GIR (41)
€199m
SEV (37)
€163m
VAL (41)
€147m
ELC (40)
€127m
LEV (28)
€111m
OSA (32)
€99m
GET (43)
€94m
RV (31)
€94m
RS (37)
€82m
ALA (33)
€78m
MAL (23)
€77m
ALM (35)
€69m
OVI (38)
€61m
DLC (33)
€58m
LP (36)
€53m
MAL (32)
€35m
VAL (35)
€35m
SG (29)
€33m
GC (31)
€31m
FA (30)
€26m
CAS (40)
€24m
MIR (32)
€23m
BUR (33)
€21m
CAD (32)
€21m
LEG (28)
€20m
COR (29)
€18m
ZAR (36)
€18m
CL (33)
€17m
EIB (31)
€16m
HUE (33)
€16m
ALB (28)
€15m
ACF (30)
€14m
TEN (28)
€12m
SAB (28)
€8m
ELD (20)
€7m
Atletico Madrid's squad is €270m more valuable than Real Sociedad's (€540m vs €270m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€712m
BAR (21)
€589m
AM (10)
€226m
VIL (15)
€168m
RS (16)
€132m
AC (15)
€103m
GIR (15)
€83m
CV (13)
€81m
LEV (10)
€68m
SEV (12)
€65m
VAL (13)
€54m
OSA (11)
€51m
GET (16)
€46m
DLC (10)
€43m
RS (14)
€42m
ALM (13)
€37m
ELC (15)
€34m
MAL (7)
€31m
RV (9)
€29m
ALA (11)
€26m
OVI (14)
€26m
MAL (11)
€24m
VAL (15)
€20m
SG (12)
€20m
LP (17)
€19m
CAS (20)
€16m
GC (12)
€15m
FA (13)
€12m
LEG (12)
€10m
CAD (14)
€10m
MIR (13)
€9m
ACF (15)
€9m
BUR (11)
€8m
HUE (12)
€8m
CL (12)
€8m
EIB (12)
€7m
ZAR (13)
€6m
COR (9)
€6m
TEN (13)
€5m
ALB (7)
€4m
SAB (11)
€3m
ELD (8)
€3m
Atletico Madrid's attack is €94m more valuable than Real Sociedad's (€226m vs €132m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (14)
€298m
RM (8)
€250m
AM (7)
€123m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (6)
€55m
RS (7)
€54m
VAL (8)
€46m
CV (7)
€39m
ELC (7)
€37m
GIR (8)
€33m
SEV (7)
€28m
GET (8)
€25m
MAL (5)
€23m
ALA (6)
€22m
ALM (6)
€22m
RS (6)
€17m
LEV (7)
€15m
OSA (6)
€13m
OVI (8)
€11m
RV (7)
€11m
LP (3)
€9m
ZAR (8)
€7m
MIR (6)
€7m
BUR (9)
€7m
VAL (6)
€6m
GC (7)
€6m
ALB (9)
€5m
COR (6)
€5m
MAL (8)
€4m
DLC (6)
€4m
SG (5)
€4m
CAD (6)
€4m
FA (5)
€4m
TEN (5)
€4m
HUE (8)
€4m
LEG (4)
€4m
EIB (6)
€3m
ACF (5)
€2m
CAS (4)
€2m
SAB (6)
€2m
CL (6)
€2m
ELD (3)
€1m
Atletico Madrid's midfield is €69m more valuable than Real Sociedad's (€123m vs €54m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (30)
€413m
RM (22)
€294m
AM (18)
€190m
VIL (18)
€137m
GIR (18)
€84m
RS (14)
€83m
CV (15)
€80m
AC (17)
€76m
SEV (18)
€70m
ELC (18)
€56m
RV (15)
€54m
VAL (20)
€47m
OSA (15)
€35m
ALA (16)
€29m
LEV (11)
€27m
LP (16)
€25m
RS (17)
€24m
OVI (16)
€23m
GET (19)
€23m
MAL (11)
€23m
DLC (17)
€11m
GC (12)
€11m
SG (12)
€10m
FA (12)
€10m
ALM (16)
€9m
VAL (14)
€9m
CL (15)
€7m
MIR (13)
€7m
MAL (13)
€7m
BUR (13)
€7m
COR (14)
€7m
CAD (12)
€6m
CAS (16)
€6m
LEG (12)
€6m
EIB (13)
€6m
ALB (12)
€6m
HUE (13)
€5m
ZAR (15)
€4m
TEN (10)
€3m
ACF (10)
€3m
SAB (11)
€3m
ELD (9)
€3m
Atletico Madrid's defence is €108m more valuable than Real Sociedad's (€190m vs €83m).

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
AM wins
3
Draws
0
RS wins

Head-to-head

Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad · H/A from AM
DateH/AGameScore
07/03/26HAM Vs Real Sociedad3-2
04/01/26AReal Sociedad Vs AM1-1
10/05/25HAM Vs Real Sociedad4-0
06/10/24AReal Sociedad Vs AM1-1
25/05/24AReal Sociedad Vs AM0-2
08/10/23HAM Vs Real Sociedad2-1
28/05/23HAM Vs Real Sociedad2-1
03/09/22AReal Sociedad Vs AM1-1

Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/04/26HAM Vs Barcelona1-2
11/04/26ASevilla Vs AM2-1
08/04/26ABarcelona Vs AM0-2
04/04/26HAM Vs Barcelona1-2
22/03/26AReal Madrid Vs AM3-2
18/03/26ATottenham Vs AM3-2
14/03/26HAM Vs Getafe1-0
10/03/26HAM Vs Tottenham5-2
07/03/26HAM Vs Real Sociedad3-2
03/03/26ABarcelona Vs AM3-0

Real SociedadReal Sociedad

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/26HRS Vs Alaves3-3
04/04/26HRS Vs Levante2-0
20/03/26AVillarreal Vs RS3-1
15/03/26HRS Vs Osasuna3-1
07/03/26AAtletico Madrid Vs RS3-2
04/03/26HRS Vs Athletic Club1-0
28/02/26AMallorca Vs RS0-1
21/02/26HRS Vs Oviedo3-3
14/02/26AReal Madrid Vs RS4-1
11/02/26AAthletic Club Vs RS0-1

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Spain: Copa del Rey
Recent: 4 Wins / 0 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL1.84
HomeWWWLL2.42
AwayLLLWL1.31
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%79%35%
AVG goals3.223.502.96
Over 1.5 %82%83%81%
Over 2.5 %62%71%54%
Over 3.5 %38%42%35%
Scored1.962.501.46
Conceded1.261.001.50
BTTS58%62%54%
Clean Sheet32%33%31%
Corners10.5210.9610.12
Cards4.314.214.42
Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad
Spain: Copa del Rey
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWD1.48
HomeDWWWD1.70
AwayWLWLL1.30
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%48%33%
AVG goals3.083.133.04
Over 1.5 %80%78%81%
Over 2.5 %60%65%56%
Over 3.5 %42%43%41%
Scored1.581.741.44
Conceded1.501.391.59
BTTS68%70%67%
Clean Sheet16%17%15%
Corners10.6911.3510.08
Cards4.684.834.54

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BarcelonaBarcelona3894
82%
2.5
9536+59
3.4
89%
74%
42%
11.3
68%
4.5
51%
21.4
50%
1301
5892984132.50.9
69%
2Real MadridReal Madrid3886
71%
2.3
7735+42
2.9
87%
55%
26%
9.9
55%
4.8
54%
24.4
68%
1256
7122502942.00.9
59%
3VillarrealVillarreal3872
58%
1.9
7246+26
3.1
92%
58%
37%
9.1
45%
4.3
58%
24.1
61%
360
168551371.91.2
45%
4Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid3869
55%
1.8
6244+18
2.8
74%
50%
26%
10.8
61%
4.4
59%
20.9
39%
540
2261231901.61.2
53%
5Real BetisReal Betis3860
39%
1.6
5948+11
2.8
89%
53%
26%
9.6
50%
4.6
65%
23.7
71%
0
0001.61.3
50%
6Celta VigoCelta Vigo3854
37%
1.4
5348+5
2.7
79%
45%
24%
8.4
29%
4.4
58%
24.1
63%
200
8139801.41.3
50%
7GetafeGetafe3851
39%
1.3
3238-6
1.8
58%
26%
5%
8.9
37%
5.6
79%
29.8
100%
94
4625230.81.0
40%
8Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano3850
32%
1.3
4144-3
2.2
71%
37%
16%
10.9
66%
5.3
74%
24.5
76%
94
2911541.11.2
53%
9ValenciaValencia3849
34%
1.3
4655-9
2.7
79%
42%
24%
9.9
45%
4.6
68%
24.2
66%
147
5446471.21.4
48%
10Real SociedadReal Sociedad3846
29%
1.2
5961-2
3.2
82%
58%
42%
10.1
53%
5.0
63%
26.6
76%
270
13254831.61.6
51%
11EspanyolEspanyol3846
32%
1.2
4355-12
2.6
76%
50%
24%
9.5
45%
5.2
70%
26.5
76%
0
0001.11.4
42%
12Athletic ClubAthletic Club3845
34%
1.2
4358-15
2.7
74%
47%
21%
9.6
50%
4.6
67%
24.3
66%
236
10357761.11.5
49%
13ElcheElche3843
26%
1.1
4957-8
2.8
79%
58%
39%
8.3
34%
4.6
71%
28.3
92%
127
3437561.31.5
58%
14AlavesAlaves3843
29%
1.1
4456-12
2.6
71%
50%
24%
10.1
53%
4.9
74%
28.4
95%
78
2622291.21.5
48%
15SevillaSevilla3843
32%
1.1
4660-14
2.8
79%
55%
26%
9.3
50%
5.2
68%
27.6
82%
163
6528701.21.6
51%
16OsasunaOsasuna3842
29%
1.1
4450-6
2.5
68%
50%
26%
8.6
32%
5.1
79%
25.1
82%
99
5113351.21.3
47%
17MallorcaMallorca3842
29%
1.1
4757-10
2.7
84%
63%
21%
10.0
58%
4.7
62%
24.6
74%
77
3123231.21.5
47%
18LevanteLevante3842
29%
1.1
4761-14
2.8
87%
45%
29%
10.2
47%
4.9
71%
25.3
76%
111
6815271.21.6
43%
19GironaGirona3841
24%
1.1
3955-16
2.5
79%
45%
16%
9.4
39%
4.4
50%
25.0
71%
199
8333841.01.4
51%
20OviedoOviedo3829
16%
0.8
2660-34
2.3
66%
39%
16%
9.5
47%
4.2
58%
24.1
63%
61
2611230.71.6
46%
Spain: La Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →

👥 17. Who played

Minutes played, then goals, assists, cards and match rating. Substitutes in grey.

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