PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Atmosfera vs Garliava Result & Analysis

Date: 07/10/2022
Time: 16:00
Final 2-3
Atmosfera
Atmosfera
Vs
45%
26%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Garliava
Garliava
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Atmosfera win✗ Miss
44.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Garliava win✓ Hit
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AtmosferaAtmosfera

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-722D17L21W21W31W44D12L12L22D05LH·NEP06/07A·BAB10/07A·TRA06/08H·FA 12/08H·BAN19/08A·ŽAL27/08H·PAN03/09A·ŠIL08/09H·NEV16/09A·DAI30/09
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.422.121.331.831.502.42
vs Stronger (22)1.502.231.331.831.702.70
vs Similar (2)0.501.00--0.501.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %4% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GarliavaGarliava

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L30W02L21W33D03L10W23L00D20WA·NEV06/07A·FA 09/07A·DAI05/08H·BE113/08A·EKR20/08H·BFA26/08A·MIN03/09H·NEP10/09A·TRA16/09H·BAB01/10
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.041.831.171.500.922.17
vs Stronger (21)0.951.901.201.700.732.09
vs Similar (3)1.671.331.000.503.003.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.7%
Under 1.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.5%
Under 2.5
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
36.1%
Under 3.5
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.5%
No
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
2-1
9.2%
1-2
7.4%
1-0
7.0%
2-0
6.8%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
5.9%
0-1
5.4%
Atmosfera goals ↓
Garliava goals →
01234
05.9%5.4%4.4%2.0%0.7%
17.0%12%7.4%3.3%1.1%
26.8%9.2%6.2%2.8%0.9%
33.9%5.2%3.5%1.6%0.5%
41.6%2.2%1.5%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Atmosfera goals (down), columns = Garliava goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Dainava
2.23
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.07
Šiauliai II
2.00
Nevėžis
1.93
Be1 NFA
1.90
Šilas
1.77
Babrungas
1.53
Ekranas
1.37
BFA
1.27
Žalgiris II
1.20
Panevėžys II
1.20
Minija
1.10
Garliava
1.10
Trakai II
1.07
FA Šiauliai II
1.04
Atmosfera
0.80
Banga II
0.67
Atmosfera is 0.30 points worse than Garliava in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 1.10).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dainava
2.30
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.20
BFA
1.80
Babrungas
1.73
Nevėžis
1.73
Šilas
1.70
Ekranas
1.60
Panevėžys II
1.57
Šiauliai II
1.50
Žalgiris II
1.47
Atmosfera
1.37
Trakai II
1.37
Be1 NFA
1.30
FA Šiauliai II
1.07
Garliava
1.03
Minija
0.90
Banga II
0.87
Atmosfera is 0.33 goals better than Garliava in terms of goals scored per game (1.37 vs 1.03).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Šiauliai II
0.50
Be1 NFA
0.63
Nevėžis
0.87
Dainava
1.03
Babrungas
1.13
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.20
Minija
1.30
Šilas
1.37
BFA
1.57
Žalgiris II
1.60
Trakai II
1.60
Garliava
1.67
Ekranas
1.70
FA Šiauliai II
1.89
Panevėžys II
2.10
Banga II
2.23
Atmosfera
2.23
Atmosfera is 0.57 goals worse than Garliava in terms of goals conceded per game (2.23 vs 1.67).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AtmosferaAtmosfera

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D03L20W10W31W22D11D00D12L04LH·NEP06/07A·BAB10/07A·TRA06/08H·FA 12/08H·BAN19/08A·ŽAL27/08H·PAN03/09A·ŠIL08/09H·NEV16/09A·DAI30/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.130.731.000.921.25
vs Stronger (21)0.861.190.731.001.001.40
vs Similar (2)0.500.50--0.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %35% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GarliavaGarliava

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L20W01L10W02L01L10W10W00D10WA·NEV06/07A·FA 09/07A·DAI05/08H·BE113/08A·EKR20/08H·BFA26/08A·MIN03/09H·NEP10/09A·TRA16/09H·BAB01/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.350.870.360.550.331.17
vs Stronger (20)0.400.850.440.560.361.09
vs Similar (3)0.001.000.000.500.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Atmosfera over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AtmosferaAtmosfera

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D14L01L11D00D22D01L12L10W01LH·NEP06/07A·BAB10/07A·TRA06/08H·FA 12/08H·BAN19/08A·ŽAL27/08H·PAN03/09A·ŠIL08/09H·NEV16/09A·DAI30/09
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.611.000.640.820.581.17
vs Stronger (21)0.671.050.640.820.701.30
vs Similar (2)0.000.50--0.000.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %35% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GarliavaGarliava

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W01L11D31W02L00D13L00D10WA·NEV06/07A·FA 09/07A·DAI05/08H·BE113/08A·EKR20/08H·BFA26/08A·MIN03/09H·NEP10/09A·TRA16/09H·BAB01/10
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.740.960.910.910.581.00
vs Stronger (20)0.601.050.891.110.361.00
vs Similar (3)1.670.331.000.003.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %39% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Atmosfera over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Atmosfera and Garliava have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Atmosfera and Garliava have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
Atmosfera and Garliava have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
ATM wins
1
Draws
0
GAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Atmosfera vs Garliava · H/A from ATM
DateH/AGameScore
03/06/22AGarliava Vs ATM1-1

AtmosferaAtmosfera

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/09/22ADainava Vs ATM5-0
16/09/22HATM Vs Nevėžis2-2
08/09/22AŠilas Vs ATM2-1
03/09/22HATM Vs Panevėžys II1-2
27/08/22AŽalgiris II Vs ATM4-4
19/08/22HATM Vs Banga II3-1
12/08/22HATM Vs FA Šiauliai II2-1
06/08/22ATrakai II Vs ATM1-2
10/07/22ABabrungas Vs ATM7-1
06/07/22HATM Vs Neptūną Klaipėda2-2

GarliavaGarliava

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/10/22HGAR Vs Babrungas2-0
16/09/22ATrakai II Vs GAR0-0
10/09/22HGAR Vs Neptūną Klaipėda2-3
03/09/22AMinija Vs GAR0-1
26/08/22HGAR Vs BFA0-3
20/08/22AEkranas Vs GAR3-3
13/08/22HGAR Vs Be1 NFA2-1
05/08/22ADainava Vs GAR2-0
09/07/22AFA Šiauliai II Vs GAR0-3
06/07/22ANevėžis Vs GAR3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Atmosfera
Atmosfera
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLDL0.88
HomeDWWLD0.83
AwayLWDLL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %21%17%25%
AVG goals3.543.173.92
Over 1.5 %83%83%83%
Over 2.5 %67%67%67%
Over 3.5 %38%33%42%
Scored1.421.331.50
Conceded2.121.832.42
BTTS67%67%67%
Clean Sheet4%0%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Garliava
Garliava
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDW0.96
HomeDWLLW1.17
AwayWLDWD0.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %25%33%17%
AVG goals2.882.673.08
Over 1.5 %79%83%75%
Over 2.5 %50%50%50%
Over 3.5 %33%25%42%
Scored1.041.170.92
Conceded1.831.502.17
BTTS42%50%33%
Clean Sheet25%25%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1DainavaDainava3067
70%
2.2
6931+38
3.3
90%
70%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.0
-
2Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda3062
63%
2.1
6636+30
3.4
90%
67%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.2
-
3NevėžisNevėžis3058
57%
1.9
5226+26
2.6
67%
43%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.9
-
4Be1 NFABe1 NFA3057
50%
1.9
3919+20
1.9
73%
27%
3%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.6
-
5ŠilasŠilas3053
53%
1.8
5141+10
3.1
80%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.4
-
6BabrungasBabrungas3046
43%
1.5
5234+18
2.9
80%
53%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.1
-
7EkranasEkranas3041
40%
1.4
4851-3
3.3
87%
53%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.7
-
8BFABFA3038
37%
1.3
5447+7
3.4
90%
70%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.6
-
9Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II3036
30%
1.2
4448-4
3.1
73%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.6
-
10Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3036
33%
1.2
4763-16
3.7
97%
80%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.1
-
11MinijaMinija3033
30%
1.1
2739-12
2.2
67%
37%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.3
-
12GarliavaGarliava3033
30%
1.1
3150-19
2.7
73%
43%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
13Trakai IITrakai II3032
23%
1.1
4148-7
3.0
77%
57%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
14FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II2829
32%
1.0
3053-23
3.0
82%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
15AtmosferaAtmosfera3024
20%
0.8
4167-26
3.6
87%
67%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.2
-
16Banga IIBanga II3020
17%
0.7
2667-41
3.1
73%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.2
-
17Šiauliai IIŠiauliai II24
50%
2.0
31+2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.5
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

← all matches