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Atmosfera vs Hegelmann II Result & Analysis

Date: 27/07/2025
Time: 12:00
Final 2-2
Atmosfera
Atmosfera
Vs
47%
26%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hegelmann II
Hegelmann II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Atmosfera win✗ Miss
46.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II win✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AtmosferaAtmosfera

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L24L11D01L11D10W01L50W01L31WH·BAN06/05H·BE110/05H·BAB17/05A·NEP23/05H·TAU31/05A·NEV13/06H·JON17/06H·EKR21/06A·BFA28/06A·KAU22/07
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.131.241.531.620.62
vs Stronger (24)1.291.291.071.791.600.60
vs Similar (6)1.830.502.000.331.670.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hegelmann IIHegelmann II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W11D01L34L05L12L42W02L10W10WH·PAN03/05A·FA 09/05H·MIN18/05A·ŽAL26/05H·TRA01/06H·BE113/06H·BAB17/06A·NEP22/06H·TAU27/06H·NEV21/07
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.671.531.330.932.00
vs Stronger (13)1.152.001.711.860.502.17
vs Similar (10)1.601.401.670.671.502.50
vs Weaker (7)0.861.430.501.501.001.40
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.7%
Under 1.5
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.5%
Under 2.5
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.1%
Under 3.5
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.6%
No
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
8.0%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
6.9%
0-0
6.6%
2-2 ✓
5.8%
0-1
5.6%
Atmosfera goals ↓
Hegelmann II goals →
01234
06.6%5.6%4.1%1.7%0.5%
18.0%12%6.9%2.8%0.9%
27.7%9.5%5.8%2.4%0.7%
34.3%5.3%3.2%1.3%0.4%
41.8%2.2%1.4%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Atmosfera goals (down), columns = Hegelmann II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.63
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.23
Tauras
2.07
Babrungas
1.93
BFA
1.83
Atmosfera
1.60
Jonava
1.40
Žalgiris II
1.40
Minija
1.20
Hegelmann II
1.03
Be1 NFA
1.00
Ekranas
0.97
FA Šiauliai II
0.94
Kauno Žalgiris II
0.90
Nevėžis
0.87
Panevėžys II
0.70
Sveikata
0.50
Atmosfera is 0.57 points better than Hegelmann II in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 1.03).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.90
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.27
Babrungas
2.13
Tauras
1.87
Atmosfera
1.73
Žalgiris II
1.67
BFA
1.57
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.43
Ekranas
1.23
Be1 NFA
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.17
Nevėžis
1.07
Sveikata
1.00
Panevėžys II
1.00
Minija
0.90
Jonava
0.87
Atmosfera is 0.57 goals better than Hegelmann II in terms of goals scored per game (1.73 vs 1.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.73
Tauras
0.73
Jonava
0.83
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.90
Atmosfera
1.13
BFA
1.20
Babrungas
1.43
Minija
1.53
Žalgiris II
1.60
Be1 NFA
1.70
Hegelmann II
1.70
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.90
Ekranas
1.93
Nevėžis
1.93
FA Šiauliai II
2.28
Panevėžys II
2.70
Sveikata
3.50
Atmosfera is 0.57 goals better than Hegelmann II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.13 vs 1.70).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AtmosferaAtmosfera

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L22D01L01L11D00D00D10W00D20WH·BAN06/05H·BE110/05H·BAB17/05A·NEP23/05H·TAU31/05A·NEV13/06H·JON17/06H·EKR21/06A·BFA28/06A·KAU22/07
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.530.710.760.770.23
vs Stronger (24)0.670.620.710.930.600.20
vs Similar (6)1.000.170.670.001.330.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hegelmann IIHegelmann II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D01L13L02L11D30W01L00D00DH·PAN03/05A·FA 09/05H·MIN18/05A·ŽAL26/05H·TRA01/06H·BE113/06H·BAB17/06A·NEP22/06H·TAU27/06H·NEV21/07
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.930.600.600.271.27
vs Stronger (13)0.380.920.710.570.001.33
vs Similar (10)0.601.000.670.670.501.50
vs Weaker (7)0.290.860.000.500.401.00
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Atmosfera over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AtmosferaAtmosfera

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D02L10W00D00D10W01L40W01L11DH·BAN06/05H·BE110/05H·BAB17/05A·NEP23/05H·TAU31/05A·NEV13/06H·JON17/06H·EKR21/06A·BFA28/06A·KAU22/07
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.600.530.760.850.38
vs Stronger (24)0.620.670.360.861.000.40
vs Similar (6)0.830.331.330.330.330.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hegelmann IIHegelmann II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D00D21W03L01L12L01L10W10WH·PAN03/05A·FA 09/05H·MIN18/05A·ŽAL26/05H·TRA01/06H·BE113/06H·BAB17/06A·NEP22/06H·TAU27/06H·NEV21/07
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.730.930.730.670.73
vs Stronger (13)0.771.081.001.290.500.83
vs Similar (10)1.000.401.000.001.001.00
vs Weaker (7)0.570.570.501.000.600.40
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Atmosfera over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (24)
€5m
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Atmosfera and Hegelmann II have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (8)
€2m
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Atmosfera and Hegelmann II have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (5)
€1m
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Atmosfera and Hegelmann II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (11)
€2m
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
Atmosfera and Hegelmann II have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
ATM wins
1
Draws
1
HI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Atmosfera vs Hegelmann II · H/A from ATM
DateH/AGameScore
16/03/25AHegelmann II Vs ATM1-1
31/08/24HATM Vs Hegelmann II2-1
07/04/24AHegelmann II Vs ATM3-0

AtmosferaAtmosfera

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/07/25AKauno Žalgiris II Vs ATM1-3
28/06/25ABFA Vs ATM1-0
21/06/25HATM Vs Ekranas5-0
17/06/25HATM Vs Jonava0-1
13/06/25ANevėžis Vs ATM0-1
31/05/25HATM Vs Tauras1-1
23/05/25ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs ATM1-0
17/05/25HATM Vs Babrungas1-1
10/05/25HATM Vs Be1 NFA2-4
06/05/25HATM Vs Banga0-2

Hegelmann IIHegelmann II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/07/25HHI Vs Nevėžis1-0
27/06/25HHI Vs Tauras1-0
22/06/25ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs HI2-0
17/06/25HHI Vs Babrungas4-2
13/06/25HHI Vs Be1 NFA1-2
01/06/25HHI Vs TransINVEST Vilnius0-5
26/05/25AŽalgiris II Vs HI4-3
18/05/25HHI Vs Minija0-1
09/05/25AFA Šiauliai II Vs HI1-1
03/05/25HHI Vs Panevėžys II2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Atmosfera
Atmosfera
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLW1.48
HomeLDDLW1.27
AwayLLWLW1.71
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%38%50%
AVG goals2.722.772.67
Over 1.5 %70%69%71%
Over 2.5 %50%50%50%
Over 3.5 %24%27%21%
Scored1.461.351.58
Conceded1.261.421.08
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet30%27%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Hegelmann II
Hegelmann II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWW1.15
HomeLLWWW1.62
AwayLDDLL0.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%50%14%
AVG goals3.072.833.32
Over 1.5 %87%75%100%
Over 2.5 %57%54%59%
Over 3.5 %35%29%41%
Scored1.221.331.09
Conceded1.851.502.23
BTTS50%38%64%
Clean Sheet22%38%5%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius3079
87%
2.6
8722+65
3.6
90%
77%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.90.7
-
2Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda3067
70%
2.2
6827+41
3.2
80%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.9
-
3TaurasTauras3062
60%
2.1
5622+34
2.6
73%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.7
-
4BabrungasBabrungas3058
57%
1.9
6443+21
3.6
83%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.4
-
5BFABFA3055
53%
1.8
4736+11
2.8
70%
53%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.2
-
6AtmosferaAtmosfera3048
47%
1.6
5234+18
2.9
70%
53%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.1
-
7Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II3042
37%
1.4
5048+2
3.3
83%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.6
-
8JonavaJonava3042
37%
1.4
2625+1
1.7
57%
23%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.90.8
-
9MinijaMinija3036
37%
1.2
2746-19
2.4
67%
47%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
10Hegelmann IIHegelmann II3031
27%
1.0
3551-16
2.9
80%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA3030
27%
1.0
3551-16
2.9
80%
63%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
12FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II3230
28%
0.9
4873-25
3.8
91%
78%
59%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.3
-
13EkranasEkranas3029
30%
1.0
3758-21
3.2
83%
60%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
14Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II3027
27%
0.9
4357-14
3.3
83%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.9
-
15NevėžisNevėžis3026
23%
0.9
3258-26
3.0
73%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
16Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3021
20%
0.7
3081-51
3.7
90%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.7
-
17SveikataSveikata21
0%
0.5
27-5
4.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.5
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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