Atromitos are favoured to win at home, with a 51% chance of triumph, a 27% draw probability and 22% for Panserraikos. The model projects an average of 2.6 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 26% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.9% probability, reflecting the balanced attack and defence of both sides. Atromitos, playing against a weaker opponent, average 2.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded at home, while Panserraikos, facing a stronger side away, manage only 0.86 goals scored and concede 2.57. Suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 96.9%, Over 19.5 fouls at 96.1%, Over 3.5 cards at 91.5%, Over 21.5 fouls at 91.0%, Over 23.5 fouls at 82.5%, Over 4.5 cards at 82.1%, Over 1.5 at 75.1% and Under 3.5 at 72.8%. The home side’s recent form shows a dip after two straight defeats, while the visitors come off a win.
Results analysis
After a tough run of two consecutive defeats, Atromitos’ home form has finally turned, extending a brief winning streak. The match finished 1-0 in favour of the home side, confirming the model’s prediction of a home win with a 51% probability. The model’s favourite was correct. Among the suggested selections, Over 19.5 fouls at 96.1% hit, while Under 3.5 at 72.8% also hit. The remaining picks - Over 2.5 cards (96.9%), Over 3.5 cards (91.5%), Over 4.5 cards (82.1%), Over 21.5 fouls (91.0%), Over 23.5 fouls (82.5%) and Over 1.5 (75.1%) - all missed. The final score of 1-0 matched the model’s most likely outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Atromitos winâś“ Hit
50.8%
Avg Implied 53.2% · @ 1.75
Edge
-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
27.1%
Avg Implied 26.8% · @ 3.47
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Panserraikos winâś— Miss
22.2%
Avg Implied 19.9% · @ 4.67
Edge
+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Atromitos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.27
0.93
1.43
1.50
1.12
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
1.82
0.80
1.60
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (14)
1.07
0.86
0.57
1.14
1.57
0.57
vs Weaker (5)
2.80
1.20
2.50
2.00
3.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
23% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Panserraikos) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panserraikos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.80
1.40
1.60
1.07
2.00
vs Stronger (16)
1.12
2.31
1.33
2.11
0.86
2.57
vs Similar (14)
1.36
1.21
1.50
0.83
1.25
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Atromitos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.1%
Under 1.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.0%
@ 2.16+5.4%
Under 2.5
51.0%
@ 1.67-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.2%
Under 3.5
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.2%
No
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
1-0 âś“
10.5%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
9.5%
0-0
8.3%
0-1
6.0%
1-2
5.9%
3-1
5.2%
Atromitos goals ↓
Panserraikos goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
6.0%
3.6%
1.2%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.9%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.5%
9.6%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
5.2%
5.2%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.1%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Atromitos goals (down), columns = Panserraikos goals (across).
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Olympiakos Piraeus
2.36
Panathinaikos
1.92
AEK Athens FC
1.75
Aris Thessalonikis
1.74
PAOK
1.72
Asteras Tripolis
1.55
Levadiakos
1.48
Panetolikos
1.40
Atromitos
1.37
OFI Crete
1.19
OFI
1.19
Panserraikos
1.12
Kallithea
1.00
Volos NFC
0.98
Athens Kallithea
0.94
Lamia
0.54
Atromitos is 0.25 points better than Panserraikos in terms of average points per game (1.37 vs 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PAOK
1.97
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.78
AEK Athens FC
1.53
Levadiakos
1.48
Panathinaikos
1.36
Aris Thessalonikis
1.32
OFI Crete
1.25
OFI
1.25
Panserraikos
1.24
Asteras Tripolis
1.24
Atromitos
1.21
Kallithea
1.00
Athens Kallithea
0.94
Volos NFC
0.93
Panetolikos
0.83
Lamia
0.56
Atromitos is 0.03 goals worse than Panserraikos in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.67
AEK Athens FC
0.81
Panetolikos
0.81
Aris Thessalonikis
1.00
Panathinaikos
1.00
Atromitos
1.08
Levadiakos
1.12
Asteras Tripolis
1.16
PAOK
1.19
Kallithea
1.44
OFI Crete
1.47
OFI
1.47
Athens Kallithea
1.49
Volos NFC
1.55
Panserraikos
1.69
Lamia
1.76
Atromitos is 0.61 goals better than Panserraikos in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.69).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
AEK Athens FC
65%
PAOK
58%
Olympiakos Piraeus
57%
Panathinaikos
57%
Aris Thessalonikis
54%
Levadiakos
49%
Panserraikos
49%
OFI
48%
Volos NFC
47%
Atromitos
45%
Asteras Tripolis
45%
Kallithea
45%
Panetolikos
43%
Lamia
41%
Atromitos is 3.6 percentage points worse than Panserraikos in terms of average possession (45% vs 49%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Atromitos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.87
0.29
0.93
0.69
0.81
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
1.18
0.40
1.00
0.17
1.33
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.64
0.14
0.71
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.80
0.50
1.50
2.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
33% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Panserraikos) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panserraikos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.73
0.93
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
1.19
0.67
1.22
0.43
1.14
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.50
0.83
0.50
0.62
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Atromitos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Atromitos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atromitos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atromitos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panserraikos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panserraikos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panserraikos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Atromitos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.64
0.50
0.81
0.31
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.64
0.40
0.60
0.50
0.67
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.21
0.43
0.43
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.40
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Panserraikos) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panserraikos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.93
0.67
0.67
0.53
1.20
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
1.12
0.67
0.89
0.43
1.43
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.71
0.67
0.33
0.62
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Atromitos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Atromitos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atromitos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atromitos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panserraikos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panserraikos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panserraikos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Over 4.5 cards
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Over 1.5
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Under 3.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (29)
€175m
PAN (34)
€109m
AAF (26)
€85m
PAO (32)
€82m
AT (27)
€41m
OFI (24)
€18m
LEV (24)
€16m
PAN (27)
€13m
AT (31)
€13m
ATR (21)
€12m
VN (25)
€10m
PAN (27)
€6m
KAL (27)
€5m
Atromitos's squad is €6m more valuable than Panserraikos's (€12m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (12)
€84m
PAN (13)
€46m
AAF (11)
€44m
PAO (11)
€30m
AT (13)
€22m
PAN (11)
€7m
OFI (6)
€6m
LEV (11)
€5m
AT (11)
€5m
VN (8)
€4m
ATR (7)
€3m
PAN (11)
€2m
KAL (9)
€2m
Atromitos's attack is €1m more valuable than Panserraikos's (€3m vs €2m).
đź§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (6)
€47m
PAO (7)
€28m
PAN (8)
€26m
AAF (5)
€16m
AT (5)
€7m
LEV (4)
€5m
OFI (5)
€3m
AT (4)
€2m
ATR (3)
€2m
PAN (5)
€2m
VN (5)
€2m
PAN (3)
€1m
KAL (4)
€1m
Atromitos's midfield is €2m more valuable than Panserraikos's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (11)
€44m
PAN (13)
€38m
AAF (10)
€26m
PAO (14)
€24m
AT (9)
€12m
OFI (13)
€8m
ATR (11)
€6m
AT (16)
€6m
VN (12)
€5m
LEV (9)
€5m
PAN (11)
€3m
KAL (14)
€3m
PAN (13)
€3m
Atromitos's defence is €3m more valuable than Panserraikos's (€6m vs €3m).
Greece: Super League 1 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 1 stats & trends →