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Auda vs Tukums Result & Analysis

Date: 21/04/2024
Time: 13:00
Final 2-0
Auda
Auda
Vs
58%
23%
19%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tukums
Tukums
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Auda are the clear favorites, with a 58% chance of triumph, a 23% chance of a draw and a 19% chance of a Tukums win. The model expects a total of 3.1 goals, most likely a 2-goal game, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 10.9%. Auda’s home form shows they average 1.8 goals scored and only 0.2 conceded against weaker opposition, while Tukums, playing away against stronger teams, manage just 0.44 goals scored and concede 3.22 on average. The model’s selection is Over 1.5, with an 82.2% probability. The recent form narrative: Auda come off a 1-1 draw, and Tukums are still reeling from three straight defeats. The match is likely to see Auda dominate, but the 1-1 scoreline remains the most probable outcome.

Results analysis

Auda’s recent form, coming off a draw, saw their run extend with a 2-0 victory over Tukums, confirming the model’s prediction of a home win. The model, favouring a home triumph with a 58% probability, was correct. The suggested pick Over 1.5, with an 82.2% chance, hit as well. The most likely scoreline of 2-0 materialised, aligning with the 23% probability for that result. The final score of 2-0 matched the actual outcome, and the model’s selection for the match outcome and the over-1.5 goal total both proved accurate.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Auda win✓ Hit
57.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tukums win✗ Miss
18.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AudaAuda

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W10W10W12L01L11D31W01L00D10WA·FS 28/10H·TUK05/11H·BFC11/11H·RĪG08/03A·RIG16/03A·GRO31/03H·VAL05/04A·FK 09/04A·FS 13/04H·BFC17/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.001.330.871.271.13
vs Stronger (6)0.502.171.002.670.001.67
vs Similar (13)1.150.921.140.571.171.33
vs Weaker (11)1.910.451.800.202.000.67
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TukumsTukums

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L01L00D20W32W13L20W00D05L21WA·FK 28/10A·AUD05/11H·FS 11/11A·FK 09/03A·FS 17/03A·BFC30/03H·GRO04/04H·MET08/04A·RĪG12/04H·RIG16/04
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.372.171.731.531.002.80
vs Stronger (17)1.182.882.002.500.443.22
vs Similar (13)1.621.231.430.431.832.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.2%
Under 1.5
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.4%
Under 2.5
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.0%
Under 3.5
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.9%
No
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
2-1
9.9%
2-0 ✓
9.3%
1-0
8.3%
3-1
6.6%
3-0
6.2%
0-0
5.6%
2-2
5.3%
Auda goals ↓
Tukums goals →
01234
05.6%4.0%2.7%1.0%0.3%
18.3%11%5.3%1.9%0.5%
29.3%9.9%5.3%1.9%0.5%
36.2%6.6%3.6%1.3%0.3%
43.1%3.3%1.8%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Auda goals (down), columns = Tukums goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.50
Riga
2.42
Valmiera / BSS
1.78
Auda
1.67
BFC Daugavpils
1.17
FK Liepaja
1.08
Metta / LU
1.00
Tukums
0.97
Grobiņa
0.81
FS Jelgava
0.69
Auda is 0.69 points better than Tukums in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 0.97).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.86
Riga
2.75
Valmiera / BSS
2.08
Auda
1.75
BFC Daugavpils
1.19
Tukums
1.06
FK Liepaja
1.03
Grobiņa
0.94
Metta / LU
0.94
FS Jelgava
0.78
Auda is 0.69 goals better than Tukums in terms of goals scored per game (1.75 vs 1.06).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga
0.64
Rīgas FS
0.69
Auda
0.94
Valmiera / BSS
1.08
FK Liepaja
1.56
BFC Daugavpils
1.67
Metta / LU
2.11
Grobiņa
2.17
Tukums
2.25
FS Jelgava
2.28
Auda is 1.31 goals better than Tukums in terms of goals conceded per game (0.94 vs 2.25).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AudaAuda

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D01L00D00D20W01L00D10WA·FS 28/10H·TUK05/11H·BFC11/11H·RĪG08/03A·RIG16/03A·GRO31/03H·VAL05/04A·FK 09/04A·FS 13/04H·BFC17/04
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.330.730.270.600.40
vs Stronger (6)0.000.330.000.330.000.33
vs Similar (13)0.460.460.570.290.330.67
vs Weaker (11)1.270.181.400.201.170.17
Clean sheet %73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TukumsTukums

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L00D00D21W01L10W00D03L00DA·FK 28/10A·AUD05/11H·FS 11/11A·FK 09/03A·FS 17/03A·BFC30/03H·GRO04/04H·MET08/04A·RĪG12/04H·RIG16/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.100.600.730.401.47
vs Stronger (17)0.291.530.621.250.001.78
vs Similar (13)0.770.540.570.141.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Auda over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AudaAuda

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D10W11D01L11D11D00D00D00DA·FS 28/10H·TUK05/11H·BFC11/11H·RĪG08/03A·RIG16/03A·GRO31/03H·VAL05/04A·FK 09/04A·FS 13/04H·BFC17/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.670.600.600.670.73
vs Stronger (6)0.501.831.002.330.001.33
vs Similar (13)0.690.460.570.290.830.67
vs Weaker (11)0.640.270.400.000.830.50
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TukumsTukums

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D20W11D12L10W00D02L21WA·FK 28/10A·AUD05/11H·FS 11/11A·FK 09/03A·FS 17/03A·BFC30/03H·GRO04/04H·MET08/04A·RĪG12/04H·RIG16/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.071.130.800.601.33
vs Stronger (17)0.881.351.381.250.441.44
vs Similar (13)0.850.690.860.290.831.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Auda over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
Auda's squad is €4m more valuable than Tukums's (€6m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
Auda's attack is €2m more valuable than Tukums's (€3m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
Auda and Tukums have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
Auda's defence is €2m more valuable than Tukums's (€3m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
AUD wins
2
Draws
3
TUK wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Auda vs Tukums · H/A from AUD
DateH/AGameScore
05/11/23HAUD Vs Tukums1-0
12/08/23ATukums Vs AUD2-2
06/06/23ATukums Vs AUD2-2
24/04/23HAUD Vs Tukums0-3
01/10/22ATukums Vs AUD1-0
18/07/22HAUD Vs Tukums3-0
10/05/22ATukums Vs AUD2-1
02/04/22HAUD Vs Tukums1-0

AudaAuda

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/04/24HAUD Vs BFC Daugavpils1-0
13/04/24AFS Jelgava Vs AUD0-0
09/04/24AFK Liepaja Vs AUD1-0
05/04/24HAUD Vs Valmiera / BSS3-1
31/03/24AGrobiņa Vs AUD1-1
16/03/24ARiga Vs AUD1-0
08/03/24HAUD Vs Rīgas FS1-2
11/11/23HAUD Vs BFC Daugavpils1-0
05/11/23HAUD Vs Tukums1-0
28/10/23AFS Jelgava Vs AUD0-2

TukumsTukums

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/04/24HTUK Vs Riga2-1
12/04/24ARīgas FS Vs TUK5-0
08/04/24HTUK Vs Metta / LU0-0
04/04/24HTUK Vs Grobiņa2-0
30/03/24ABFC Daugavpils Vs TUK3-1
17/03/24AFS Jelgava Vs TUK2-3
09/03/24AFK Liepaja Vs TUK0-2
11/11/23HTUK Vs FS Jelgava0-0
05/11/23AAuda Vs TUK1-0
28/10/23AFK Liepaja Vs TUK1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Auda
Auda
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLDW1.40
HomeWWLWW1.46
AwayWLDLD1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%42%35%
AVG goals2.242.332.15
Over 1.5 %68%62%73%
Over 2.5 %34%42%27%
Over 3.5 %20%25%15%
Scored1.101.081.12
Conceded1.141.251.04
BTTS36%38%35%
Clean Sheet38%38%38%
Corners13.0013.00-
Cards4.005.003.00
Tukums
Tukums
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDLW1.12
HomeLDWDW1.42
AwayLWWLL0.79
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%38%21%
AVG goals3.402.923.92
Over 1.5 %80%77%83%
Over 2.5 %58%50%67%
Over 3.5 %44%27%62%
Scored1.301.311.29
Conceded2.101.622.62
BTTS48%46%50%
Clean Sheet26%38%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS3690
81%
2.5
10325+78
3.6
92%
75%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.90.7
-
2RigaRiga3687
75%
2.4
9923+76
3.4
81%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7362.80.6
-
3Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS3664
53%
1.8
7539+36
3.2
78%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.1
-
4AudaAuda3660
50%
1.7
6334+29
2.7
75%
58%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.80.9
-
5BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3642
31%
1.2
4360-17
2.9
72%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.7
-
6FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3639
28%
1.1
3756-19
2.6
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.6
-
7Metta / LUMetta / LU3636
28%
1.0
3476-42
3.1
83%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.1
-
8TukumsTukums3635
25%
1.0
3881-43
3.3
81%
67%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.12.2
-
9GrobiņaGrobiņa3629
22%
0.8
3478-44
3.1
89%
61%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.92.2
-
10FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3625
17%
0.7
2882-54
3.1
75%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1010.82.3
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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