Auxerre are tipped to win, with a 51% chance of triumph against Angers, who have a 21% chance of victory and a 29% chance of a draw. The model expects 2.4 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 13.4% chance. Auxerre, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.22 goals scored and 0.78 conceded, while Angers, on the road, averages 0.67 goals scored and 0.89 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.3% with a 3% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (99.2% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.2% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.2% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.5% with a 5% edge), Under 5.5 (97.5% with a 4% edge), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.2% with a 5% edge). Auxerre’s recent form shows a return from a defeat, while Angers also come off a loss.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Angers overturned Auxerre’s recent form, ending a run of two straight defeats with a 1-3 victory. The pre-match favourite was Auxerre, given a 50% probability, but the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selections all hit except “Away under 2.5 goals,” which missed. “Under 7.5” reached 99.8%, “Under 6.5” 99.3%, “Away under 3.5 goals” 99.2%, “Away under 2.5 HT goals” 99.1%, “Away under 2.5 2H goals” 98.0%, “Under 5.5” 97.5%, and “Home under 2.5 HT goals” 97.3%. The only miss was “Away under 2.5 goals” at 95.7%. The final score of 1-3 confirmed an away win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Auxerre win✗ Miss
50.5%
Avg Implied 46.9% · @ 2.03
Edge
+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.09
Pinnacle
2.06
Dafabet
2.06
Superbet
2.05
Draw✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied 27.9% · @ 3.40
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.54
Marathonbet
3.48
Pinnacle
3.48
Betano
3.45
Dafabet
3.45
Angers win✓ Hit
20.8%
Avg Implied 25.2% · @ 3.77
Edge
-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.95
Pinnacle
3.92
Betfair
3.90
Betano
3.85
Unibet
3.85
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Auxerre
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.43
1.07
1.13
1.13
1.73
vs Stronger (12)
1.08
1.83
0.83
1.67
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.11
1.17
1.22
0.78
1.00
1.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Angers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Angers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.33
1.06
1.25
0.71
1.43
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
2.08
0.62
1.88
0.80
2.40
vs Similar (17)
1.06
0.76
1.50
0.62
0.67
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Auxerre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.6%
@ 1.33-1.4%
Under 1.5
30.4%
@ 3.24+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.34
Unibet
1.34
Betano
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.44
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Betano
3.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.1%
@ 2.03-4.9%
Under 2.5
57.9%
@ 1.80+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.11
Unibet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.09
Marathonbet
2.05
SBO
2.04
Under
Betfair
1.87
1xBet
1.84
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.4%
@ 3.50-5.4%
Under 3.5
78.6%
@ 1.28+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.85
Pinnacle
3.68
Superbet
3.55
10Bet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.31
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.3%
@ 1.81-5.1%
No
53.7%
@ 1.92+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.87
William Hil
1.85
Superbet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
No
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
1.95
Superbet
1.95
BetVictor
1.93
Betano
1.93
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%@ 5.99+6.0%
1-0
12.8%@ 6.53+6.0%
0-0
10.6%@ 8.76+5.5%
2-0
10.5%@ 9.00+5.5%
2-1
9.1%@ 8.03+3.6%
0-1
7.0%@ 9.68+2.4%
1-2
5.3%@ 11.60+1.5%
3-0
5.2%@ 16.38+2.5%
Auxerre goals ↓
Angers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.0%
3.6%
1.0%
0.2%
1
13%
13%
5.3%
1.6%
0.3%
2
10%
9.1%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
3
5.2%
4.5%
2.0%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.9%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Auxerre goals (down), columns = Angers goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Auxerre
1.00
Nice
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Auxerre is 0.06 points worse than Angers in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Auxerre is 0.15 goals better than Angers in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.85).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Auxerre is 0.12 goals better than Angers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Auxerre is 2.1 percentage points better than Angers in terms of average possession (44% vs 42%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Auxerre
For 4.5 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.5 · Against 11.3 · Total 26.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Angers
For 4.2 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 11.2 · Total 21.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Auxerre
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.9
9.8
4.6
5.2
4.0
25.7
25.3
26.0
vs Stronger (19)
9.8
10.1
9.5
5.7
6.9
4.7
25.4
24.2
26.5
vs Similar (31)
9.8
9.8
9.9
3.9
4.3
3.5
25.8
25.9
25.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
40%
52%
68%
76%
60%
72%
64%
80%
% under line
54%
60%
48%
32%
24%
40%
28%
36%
20%
This opponent (Angers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Angers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.0
9.1
3.1
3.6
2.6
22.7
24.4
20.9
vs Stronger (23)
9.4
8.9
10.0
3.0
3.5
2.4
21.3
22.5
19.6
vs Similar (27)
8.8
9.1
8.5
3.3
3.8
2.8
24.0
26.5
21.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
43%
36%
50%
44%
58%
29%
59%
76%
42%
% under line
57%
64%
50%
56%
42%
71%
41%
24%
58%
This opponent (Auxerre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.6
Rennes
10.4
Lens
10.3
Lyon
9.9
Auxerre
9.8
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Lille
9.5
Monaco
9.5
Paris FC
9.4
Toulouse
9.3
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Havre
9.1
Le Mans
9.1
Angers
9.0
Strasbourg
9.0
Marseille
9.0
Lorient
8.9
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.7
Lyon
4.7
Marseille
4.5
Le Mans
4.5
Toulouse
4.4
Lens
4.4
Lille
4.4
Rennes
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Lorient
4.1
Le Havre
4.1
Nice
4.1
Estac Troyes
4.0
Paris FC
4.0
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Estac Troyes
27.2
Le Mans
27.1
Le Havre
26.9
Auxerre
25.7
Toulouse
25.3
Lyon
25.3
Lens
25.0
Stade Brestois 29
24.7
Lille
24.0
Rennes
23.8
Nice
23.6
Strasbourg
23.6
Monaco
23.5
Marseille
23.3
Lorient
23.0
Angers
22.6
Paris FC
22.4
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
48.5%
@ 2.01+2.1%
Under 9.5
51.5%
@ 1.74-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
1.99
Unibet
1.97
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
1xBet
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.75
Unibet
1.72
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
57.6%
@ 1.72+3.3%
Under 3.5
42.4%
@ 2.04-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.66
Betano
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.21
Betano
2.20
Unibet
2.10
Superbet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
57.2%
@ 1.33-10.9%
Under 21.5
42.8%
@ 2.85+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.33
Under
1xBet
2.85
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Auxerre or Draw✗ Miss
81.1%
Avg Implied 74.7% · @ 1.26
Edge
+6.4%
50%
29%
21%
covers Auxerre + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Auxerre or Angers✓ Hit
70.5%
Avg Implied 72.7% · @ 1.29
Edge
-2.2%
50%
29%
21%
covers Auxerre + Angers
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
Superbet
1.33
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.30
Draw or Angers✓ Hit
48.4%
Avg Implied 52.6% · @ 1.79
Edge
-4.2%
50%
29%
21%
covers Draw + Angers
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.83
Unibet
1.81
1xBet
1.80
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Auxerre over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.1%
@ 1.21-0.7%
Under
23.9%
@ 4.02+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.29
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Auxerre over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
41.9%
@ 2.09-3.0%
Under
58.1%
@ 1.70+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.16
1xBet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
BetVictor
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.71
Auxerre over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.4%
@ 4.49-3.3%
Under
82.6%
@ 1.18+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
BetVictor
4.75
1xBet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.60
Pinnacle
4.59
Under
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Auxerre over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.7%
@ 9.71-3.9%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.03+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
10.00
Marathonbet
10.00
Unibet
10.00
1xBet
10.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
Angers over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
53.6%
@ 1.45-10.6%
Under
46.4%
@ 2.60+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.73
Bet365
2.62
Superbet
2.60
BetVictor
2.60
Angers over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
18.0%
@ 3.25-10.8%
Under
82.0%
@ 1.31+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.44
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
3.40
10Bet
3.30
1xBet
3.24
Under
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Angers over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
4.3%
@ 8.49-6.7%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.05+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
8.50
1xBet
8.50
Superbet
8.10
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Angers over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.8%
@ 20.33-3.9%
Under
99.2%
@ 1.01+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Auxerre, so a minus line means Auxerre give that many goals of a start and Angers receive them. At -1, Auxerre must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Auxerre win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Auxerre)Actual: Angers
Auxerre -2
10.3%
@ 8.25-0.6%
Draw -2
16.1%
@ 5.70+0.3%
Angers +2
73.5%
@ 1.23+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.00
Superbet
8.00
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.80
Superbet
5.75
Unibet
5.40
Away
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
Handicap -1 (Auxerre)Actual: Angers
Auxerre -1
26.5%
@ 3.67+1.8%
Draw -1
25.1%
@ 3.61+0.0%
Angers +1
48.4%
@ 1.80-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Unibet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.45
Away
10Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Unibet
1.80
Handicap +1 (Auxerre)Actual: Angers
Auxerre +1
81.1%
@ 1.25+9.2%
Draw +1
12.9%
@ 5.22-4.4%
Angers -1
6.0%
@ 8.32-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.40
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.10
Marathonbet
5.05
Away
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
8.50
Superbet
8.00
Handicap +2 (Auxerre)Actual: Draw
Auxerre +2
94.0%
@ 1.06+7.1%
Draw +2
4.6%
@ 10.50-4.1%
Angers -2
1.3%
@ 21.00-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Draw
Bet365
12.00
Betfair
11.00
10Bet
8.50
Away
Bet365
23.00
Betfair
21.00
10Bet
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Auxerre
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.40
0.60
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.50
0.17
0.67
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.61
0.56
0.56
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Angers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Angers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.70
0.31
0.75
0.21
0.64
vs Stronger (13)
0.15
1.31
0.12
1.38
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (17)
0.35
0.24
0.50
0.12
0.22
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Auxerre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
64.8%
@ 1.41-1.6%
Under 0.5
35.2%
@ 2.78+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Unibet
1.43
BetVictor
1.42
Under
Betfair
3.00
Pinnacle
2.95
William Hil
2.88
Superbet
2.87
10Bet
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
28.0%
@ 2.93-4.0%
Under 1.5
72.0%
@ 1.38+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.06
Unibet
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Betano
3.00
1xBet
2.98
Under
Superbet
1.41
William Hil
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Betano
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.4%
@ 7.49-3.1%
Under 2.5
90.6%
@ 1.07+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
Superbet
7.60
William Hil
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Under
Superbet
1.09
Betano
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Auxerre over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
48.0%
@ 1.90-1.0%
Under
52.0%
@ 1.83+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Unibet
1.91
Under
10Bet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Superbet
1.83
Betano
1.82
Marathonbet
1.79
Auxerre over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.8%
@ 5.48-2.0%
Under
85.2%
@ 1.11+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.85
1xBet
5.80
Unibet
5.60
Superbet
5.35
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Auxerre over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 14.12-4.0%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.01+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Angers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
33.1%
@ 2.53-3.7%
Under
66.9%
@ 1.47+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.64
Unibet
2.60
Betano
2.55
10Bet
2.55
1xBet
2.46
Under
Pinnacle
1.50
Superbet
1.49
1xBet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.48
Angers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.3%
@ 8.84-4.2%
Under
93.7%
@ 1.03+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
9.50
Marathonbet
9.10
1xBet
9.10
Superbet
8.50
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
Angers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
@ 24.50-3.1%
Under
99.1%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
35.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Auxerre
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.87
0.67
0.53
0.47
1.20
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.56
0.67
0.22
0.33
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Angers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Angers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (13)
0.54
0.77
0.50
0.50
0.60
1.20
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.53
1.00
0.50
0.44
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Auxerre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.2%
@ 1.26-0.1%
Under 0.5
25.8%
@ 3.65+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Under
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.66
1xBet
3.66
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
37.8%
@ 2.20-4.8%
Under 1.5
62.2%
@ 1.64+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.26
1xBet
2.26
William Hil
2.25
Superbet
2.25
Unibet
2.20
Under
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.66
Superbet
1.65
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.0%
@ 4.84-5.3%
Under 2.5
86.0%
@ 1.16+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Unibet
4.90
Under
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Auxerre over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
54.7%
@ 1.63-2.2%
Under
45.3%
@ 2.15+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.64
Superbet
1.64
Betano
1.62
Under
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.12
Superbet
2.12
Auxerre over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.1%
@ 4.02-5.0%
Under
81.9%
@ 1.21+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.15
Superbet
4.10
10Bet
3.90
Betano
3.80
Under
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Auxerre over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.3%
@ 10.38-4.7%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.03+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.02
Angers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
41.0%
@ 2.04-4.4%
Under
59.0%
@ 1.70+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.04
Under
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Superbet
1.69
Angers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
8.9%
@ 6.33-5.8%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.09+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.55
Marathonbet
6.55
Superbet
6.30
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Angers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 16.50-3.8%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.02+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.3%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.5%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.01
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
95.7%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
+6.7%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.7%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.3%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
94.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
10Bet
1.05
-
-
+7.1%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.7%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
92.8%
1.08
Betano
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.1%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
+5.8%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.6%
1.07
Superbet
1.09
Betano
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
86.0%
1.16
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.2%
1.11
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
82.6%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
82.0%
1.31
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.33
+10.8%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.9%
1.21
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
81.1%
1.26
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
+6.4%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
81.1%
1.25
Marathonbet
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Unibet
1.23
+9.2%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
78.6%
1.28
Pinnacle
1.31
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Bet365
1.30
+5.4%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
77.7%
1.26
Betano
1.32
Unibet
1.28
Superbet
1.19
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.9%
1.30
Superbet
1.34
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.27
-
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
76.1%
1.21
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.6%
1.25
Superbet
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
+1.4%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.2%
1.26
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
74.1%
1.59
1xBet
1.61
Superbet
1.57
-
-
-
+16.7%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
73.5%
1.23
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
72.0%
1.38
Superbet
1.41
William Hil
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Betano
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
+4.0%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
70.5%
1.29
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
Superbet
1.33
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.30
-2.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Auxerre · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lassine Sinayoko31%
Bryan Okoh15%
Danny Namaso10%
Francisco Sierralta9%
Oussama El Azzouzi9%
Kévin Danois9%
Sinaly Diomandé8%
Sékou Mara7%
Assane Dioussé6%
Marvin Senaya4%
Josué Casimir3%
Gideon Mensah0%
Donovan Léon0%
Elisha Owusu0%
Romain Faivre0%
Naouirou Ahamada0%
Clement Akpa0%
Théo De Percin0%
Lamine Sy0%
Fredrik Oppegård0%
Ibrahim Osman0%
Lasso Coulibaly0%
Ryan Rodin0%
Telli Siwe0%
Rudy Matondo0%
Tidiane Devernois0%
Mamoudou Cissokho0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Danny Namaso30%
Gideon Mensah26%
Lassine Sinayoko25%
Elisha Owusu24%
Rudy Matondo24%
Marvin Senaya23%
Assane Dioussé19%
Francisco Sierralta18%
Josué Casimir16%
Bryan Okoh15%
Sinaly Diomandé12%
Kévin Danois12%
Clement Akpa12%
Oussama El Azzouzi9%
Lamine Sy8%
Lasso Coulibaly6%
Fredrik Oppegård4%
Donovan Léon3%
Romain Faivre0%
Naouirou Ahamada0%
Sékou Mara0%
Théo De Percin0%
Ibrahim Osman0%
Ryan Rodin0%
Telli Siwe0%
Tidiane Devernois0%
Mamoudou Cissokho0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ibrahim Osman13%
Lassine Sinayoko12%
Danny Namaso10%
Romain Faivre10%
Sinaly Diomandé8%
Sékou Mara7%
Naouirou Ahamada7%
Gideon Mensah6%
Kévin Danois3%
Donovan Léon0%
Elisha Owusu0%
Assane Dioussé0%
Francisco Sierralta0%
Bryan Okoh0%
Josué Casimir0%
Clement Akpa0%
Marvin Senaya0%
Théo De Percin0%
Lamine Sy0%
Fredrik Oppegård0%
Oussama El Azzouzi0%
Lasso Coulibaly0%
Ryan Rodin0%
Telli Siwe0%
Rudy Matondo0%
Tidiane Devernois0%
Mamoudou Cissokho0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Lassine Sinayoko41%
Danny Namaso13%
Oussama El Azzouzi9%
Sékou Mara7%
Ibrahim Osman7%
Gideon Mensah0%
Donovan Léon0%
Elisha Owusu0%
Assane Dioussé0%
Francisco Sierralta0%
Romain Faivre0%
Bryan Okoh0%
Naouirou Ahamada0%
Sinaly Diomandé0%
Josué Casimir0%
Clement Akpa0%
Marvin Senaya0%
Théo De Percin0%
Lamine Sy0%
Fredrik Oppegård0%
Lasso Coulibaly0%
Kévin Danois0%
Ryan Rodin0%
Telli Siwe0%
Rudy Matondo0%
Tidiane Devernois0%
Mamoudou Cissokho0%
Angers · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sidiki Cherif20%
Jim Allevinah17%
Prosper Peter16%
Himad Abdelli15%
Goduine Koyalipou15%
Amine Sbai15%
Djibirin Harouna13%
Yassin Belkhdim7%
Lilian Raolisoa6%
Louis Mouton6%
Lanroy Machine4%
Ousmane Camara3%
Abdoulaye Bamba0%
Haris Belkebla0%
Carlens Arcus0%
Pierrick Capelle0%
Jordan Lefort0%
Hervé Koffi0%
Branco Van den Boomen0%
Florent Hanin0%
Melvin Zinga0%
Jacques Ekomié0%
Emmanuel Biumla0%
Oumar Pona0%
Justin-Noel Kalumba0%
Dan Sinaté0%
Marius Courcoul0%
Marius Louer0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Oumar Pona25%
Haris Belkebla24%
Carlens Arcus21%
Yassin Belkhdim21%
Pierrick Capelle17%
Sidiki Cherif15%
Abdoulaye Bamba14%
Branco Van den Boomen13%
Djibirin Harouna13%
Jacques Ekomié12%
Marius Louer11%
Lilian Raolisoa9%
Himad Abdelli8%
Amine Sbai7%
Ousmane Camara6%
Louis Mouton6%
Lanroy Machine4%
Hervé Koffi3%
Jordan Lefort3%
Goduine Koyalipou0%
Jim Allevinah0%
Florent Hanin0%
Melvin Zinga0%
Emmanuel Biumla0%
Justin-Noel Kalumba0%
Dan Sinaté0%
Marius Courcoul0%
Prosper Peter0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lilian Raolisoa12%
Carlens Arcus11%
Goduine Koyalipou8%
Yassin Belkhdim7%
Branco Van den Boomen7%
Djibirin Harouna7%
Pierrick Capelle6%
Jordan Lefort6%
Amine Sbai4%
Louis Mouton3%
Abdoulaye Bamba0%
Haris Belkebla0%
Himad Abdelli0%
Jim Allevinah0%
Hervé Koffi0%
Florent Hanin0%
Melvin Zinga0%
Ousmane Camara0%
Jacques Ekomié0%
Emmanuel Biumla0%
Oumar Pona0%
Lanroy Machine0%
Justin-Noel Kalumba0%
Dan Sinaté0%
Sidiki Cherif0%
Marius Courcoul0%
Marius Louer0%
Prosper Peter0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Goduine Koyalipou15%
Yassin Belkhdim11%
Himad Abdelli8%
Branco Van den Boomen7%
Prosper Peter6%
Louis Mouton6%
Sidiki Cherif5%
Lanroy Machine4%
Amine Sbai4%
Ousmane Camara3%
Abdoulaye Bamba0%
Haris Belkebla0%
Carlens Arcus0%
Pierrick Capelle0%
Jordan Lefort0%
Jim Allevinah0%
Hervé Koffi0%
Florent Hanin0%
Lilian Raolisoa0%
Melvin Zinga0%
Jacques Ekomié0%
Emmanuel Biumla0%
Oumar Pona0%
Justin-Noel Kalumba0%
Dan Sinaté0%
Marius Courcoul0%
Marius Louer0%
Djibirin Harouna0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Auxerre's squad is €11m more valuable than Angers's (€84m vs €73m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Auxerre's attack is €7m less valuable than Angers's (€23m vs €30m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Auxerre's midfield is €16m more valuable than Angers's (€28m vs €11m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Auxerre's defence is €1m more valuable than Angers's (€33m vs €32m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Lille
Monaco
Paris FC
Lyon
Rennes
Estac Troyes
Lens
Marseille
Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29
Paris Saint Germain
Le Mans
Le Havre
Lorient
Toulouse
Nice