This opponent (Moreirense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moreirense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.23
1.07
0.87
1.20
1.60
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.86
0.67
1.67
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
1.25
1.00
1.33
0.67
1.17
1.33
vs Weaker (11)
1.18
1.09
1.00
0.67
1.40
1.60
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Aves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.3%
Under 1.5
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.6%
Under 2.5
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.6%
Under 3.5
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.1%
No
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.2%
0-1 ✓
8.0%
0-0
8.0%
1-0
7.7%
0-2
6.3%
2-0
6.0%
Aves goals ↓
Moreirense goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
8.0%
6.3%
2.9%
1.0%
1
7.7%
13%
8.4%
3.8%
1.3%
2
6.0%
8.2%
5.6%
2.5%
0.9%
3
2.7%
3.6%
2.5%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.9%
1.2%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aves goals (down), columns = Moreirense goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Benfica
2.56
FC Porto
2.50
Sporting CP
2.18
SC Braga
1.97
Moreirense
1.53
Guimaraes
1.53
Rio Ave
1.32
Boavista
1.29
Belenenses
1.26
Santa Clara
1.24
Maritimo
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Aves
1.06
Setubal
1.06
Tondela
1.03
Chaves
0.94
Nacional
0.82
Feirense
0.59
Aves is 0.47 points worse than Moreirense in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.53).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benfica
3.03
FC Porto
2.18
Sporting CP
2.12
SC Braga
1.65
Rio Ave
1.47
Guimaraes
1.35
Portimonense
1.29
Santa Clara
1.26
Belenenses
1.24
Tondela
1.18
Moreirense
1.15
Aves
1.03
Chaves
1.00
Boavista
1.00
Nacional
0.97
Setubal
0.82
Feirense
0.79
Maritimo
0.76
Aves is 0.12 goals worse than Moreirense in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.59
Benfica
0.91
Sporting CP
0.97
Guimaraes
1.00
SC Braga
1.09
Setubal
1.15
Boavista
1.18
Maritimo
1.29
Moreirense
1.29
Santa Clara
1.32
Aves
1.44
Belenenses
1.50
Rio Ave
1.53
Tondela
1.59
Chaves
1.68
Portimonense
1.74
Feirense
1.88
Nacional
2.15
Aves is 0.15 goals worse than Moreirense in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
A
Aves
For 6.0 · Against 6.5 · Total 12.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.8 · Against 13.8 · Total 29.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Moreirense
For 5.3 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.6 · Against 16.9 · Total 33.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
A
Aves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.6
12.0
11.3
4.6
5.3
4.0
31.9
32.9
31.0
vs Stronger (31)
12.0
12.8
11.6
4.4
5.5
3.7
31.8
33.2
31.0
vs Similar (19)
11.0
11.2
10.6
4.9
5.1
4.7
32.0
32.7
30.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
70%
67%
73%
68%
79%
58%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
30%
33%
27%
32%
21%
42%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Moreirense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moreirense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
11.1
9.7
4.9
5.4
4.4
31.8
32.7
30.9
vs Stronger (13)
10.8
10.8
10.7
4.9
4.5
5.3
28.5
29.2
28.0
vs Similar (19)
10.3
11.2
9.6
4.3
5.0
3.8
30.4
30.8
30.2
vs Weaker (18)
10.2
11.1
8.5
5.5
6.1
4.3
35.7
35.8
35.5
% over line
56%
62%
50%
62%
69%
54%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
44%
38%
50%
38%
31%
46%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Aves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Tondela
11.7
Aves
11.6
Boavista
11.4
Sporting CP
11.4
Chaves
11.0
Santa Clara
10.9
Rio Ave
10.8
Nacional
10.6
SC Braga
10.5
Moreirense
10.4
Guimaraes
10.4
Portimonense
10.2
Benfica
10.1
Feirense
10.0
FC Porto
10.0
Maritimo
9.9
Setubal
9.8
Belenenses
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Rio Ave
6.2
Sporting CP
5.9
Setubal
5.8
Boavista
5.7
Feirense
5.3
Nacional
5.2
Tondela
5.2
Benfica
5.1
Portimonense
5.1
Santa Clara
5.0
Maritimo
5.0
Moreirense
4.9
Chaves
4.9
Aves
4.6
Belenenses
4.6
SC Braga
4.5
FC Porto
4.4
Guimaraes
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Setubal
37.0
Feirense
36.0
Rio Ave
35.1
Boavista
34.5
Tondela
32.4
FC Porto
32.4
Aves
31.9
Moreirense
31.8
Portimonense
31.6
Santa Clara
31.6
Guimaraes
31.5
Nacional
31.5
Sporting CP
31.2
Chaves
30.9
Maritimo
30.9
Belenenses
30.5
SC Braga
30.1
Benfica
29.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
64.4%
Under 9.5
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
70.5%
Under 3.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
97.0%
Under 21.5
3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
A
Aves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.53
0.73
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (20)
0.45
0.75
0.56
1.11
0.36
0.45
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.30
0.50
0.17
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moreirense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.47
0.33
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.29
0.00
0.67
1.00
1.75
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.42
0.67
0.17
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (11)
0.45
0.36
0.50
0.33
0.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Aves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
A
Aves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.67
0.60
0.40
1.00
vs Stronger (20)
0.35
0.80
0.22
0.78
0.45
0.82
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.80
1.33
0.33
0.25
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moreirense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.60
0.53
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.57
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.25
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.58
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.73
0.50
0.33
1.00
1.20
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Aves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Moreirense · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nile John33%
João Veloso33%
Kiko33%
André Ferreira0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nile John67%
Kiko67%
Guilherme Liberato33%
Gilberto Batista33%
Rodrigo Alonso33%
Leandro Santos33%
André Ferreira0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
João Veloso0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexandre Parsemain33%
João Veloso33%
André Ferreira0%
Nile John0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
Kiko0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
André Ferreira0%
Nile John0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
João Veloso0%
Kiko0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Moreirense
Benfica
FC Porto
Sporting CP
SC Braga
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
Boavista
Belenenses
Santa Clara
Portimonense
Maritimo
Tondela
Chaves
Nacional
Feirense