Ayr Utd vs Morton Result & Analysis

The match between Ayr Utd and Morton is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the margins are slim. The probabilities are 40% for Ayr, 29% for a draw and 31% for Morton, making the home side the favourite. On average the game should see 2.5 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at 27%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is a 1-1 draw, with a 13.9% chance. Ayr’s home form shows they score 0.75 goals per game and concede 1.67 against teams of similar strength, while Morton’s away form sees them net 1.3 and allow 1.6 against comparable opponents. Suggested picks include Under 25.5 fouls at 86.2%, Over 2.5 cards at 81.5%, Over 8.5 corners at 79.2%, Under 23.5 fouls at 75.0%, Under 3.5 goals at 74.7% (hit), Over 1.5 goals at 73.5% (miss) and Under 5.5 cards at 72.0%. All figures are presented as percentages, and every selection is listed with its probability.

The pre-match favourite, a home win, failed to materialise as Morton edged Ayr 1-0, ending the hosts’ recent run of draws and giving the visitors a win in their last five. The model’s call was wrong, with a 40% probability for a home victory. The final score of 0-1 confirmed an away win. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a 74.7% chance, while its Over 1.5 pick missed, despite a 73.5% probability. The most likely total of two goals was 27% probable, yet the match produced only one goal, a tidy outcome for the visitors.