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Ayr Utd vs Queen's Park Result & Analysis

Date: 04/11/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 2-2
Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
Vs
35%
28%
37%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Queen
Queen's Park
Scotland: Championship
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ayr Utd win✗ Miss
35.1%
Avg Implied 45.0% · @ 2.05
Edge
-10.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.8%
Avg Implied 25.9% · @ 3.57
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park win✗ Miss
37.2%
Avg Implied 29.1% · @ 3.17
Edge
+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W03L12L04L52W12L21W10W01L22DH·INV12/08H·DUN26/08A·ARB02/09H·PAR15/09A·QUE22/09H·RAI30/09A·AIR07/10A·DUN21/10H·MOR28/10A·PAR31/10
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.470.791.501.621.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)1.221.520.751.581.601.47
vs Weaker (3)1.331.001.001.002.001.00
Clean sheet %30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QueenQueen's Park

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W10W13L23L02L25L14L00D11D22DH·ARB12/08A·ARB19/08A·PAR26/08A·RAI02/09H·DUN16/09H·AYR22/09A·DUN30/09H·MOR07/10A·AIR20/10H·PAR27/10
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.831.291.711.501.94
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)1.411.961.231.771.572.14
vs Weaker (3)1.330.672.001.001.000.50
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%315%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.8%
Under 1.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.7%
@ 1.71-1.8%
Under 2.5
47.3%
@ 2.05+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.5%
Under 3.5
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.6%
No
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.2%
0-1
7.5%
0-0
7.4%
1-0
7.3%
0-2
6.2%
2-2 ✓
5.8%
Ayr Utd goals ↓
Queen's Park goals →
01234
07.4%7.5%6.2%2.9%1.0%
17.3%13%8.5%4.0%1.4%
25.8%8.2%5.8%2.7%1.0%
32.6%3.7%2.6%1.2%0.4%
40.9%1.3%0.9%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ayr Utd goals (down), columns = Queen's Park goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Dundee Utd
2.10
Raith Rvs
1.92
Raith Rovers
1.92
Partick
1.46
Airdrie United
1.40
Morton
1.35
Ayr
1.22
Ayr Utd
1.22
Queens Park
1.19
Queen's Park
1.19
Inverness CT
1.17
Dunfermline
1.12
Arbroath
0.65
Alloa Athletic
0.50
Montrose
0.50
Ayr Utd is 0.03 points better than Queen's Park in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.19).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Alloa Athletic
2.00
Dundee Utd
2.00
Partick
1.81
Raith Rvs
1.61
Raith Rovers
1.61
Ayr
1.47
Ayr Utd
1.47
Queens Park
1.39
Queen's Park
1.39
Airdrie United
1.21
Inverness CT
1.19
Morton
1.19
Dunfermline
1.12
Arbroath
0.92
Montrose
0.00
Ayr Utd is 0.08 goals better than Queen's Park in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.39).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Montrose
0.50
Dundee Utd
0.62
Morton
1.10
Inverness CT
1.15
Raith Rvs
1.17
Raith Rovers
1.17
Airdrie United
1.23
Dunfermline
1.35
Partick
1.54
Queens Park
1.56
Queen's Park
1.56
Ayr
1.69
Ayr Utd
1.69
Hamilton Academical
1.75
Alloa Athletic
2.50
Arbroath
2.54
Ayr Utd is 0.14 goals worse than Queen's Park in terms of goals conceded per game (1.69 vs 1.56).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

QueenQueen's Park

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (49)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (44)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (5)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QueenQueen's Park

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (49)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (44)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (5)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Queens Park
11.7
Arbroath
11.2
Morton
11.2
Dundee Utd
10.8
Dunfermline
10.8
Ayr
10.7
Montrose
10.6
Inverness CT
10.0
Partick
9.9
Airdrie United
9.9
Raith Rvs
9.8

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Raith Rvs
4.3
Montrose
4.0
Morton
4.0
Dundee Utd
3.8
Arbroath
3.7
Dunfermline
3.6
Partick
3.4
Ayr
3.2
Airdrie United
3.2
Queens Park
3.1
Inverness CT
3.0

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Montrose
22.7
Dundee Utd
22.5
Morton
21.8
Arbroath
21.1
Partick
20.2
Inverness CT
19.7
Raith Rvs
19.7
Dunfermline
19.5
Ayr
18.9
Queens Park
18.5
Airdrie United
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
61.6%
Under 9.5
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
49.7%
Under 3.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
36.3%
Under 21.5
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D11D01L41W02L10W10W00D11DH·INV12/08H·DUN26/08A·ARB02/09H·PAR15/09A·QUE22/09H·RAI30/09A·AIR07/10A·DUN21/10H·MOR28/10A·PAR31/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.500.430.501.000.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.700.520.330.501.000.53
vs Weaker (3)1.000.331.000.501.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QueenQueen's Park

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D12L01L00D14L11D00D01L01LH·ARB12/08A·ARB19/08A·PAR26/08A·RAI02/09H·DUN16/09H·AYR22/09A·DUN30/09H·MOR07/10A·AIR20/10H·PAR27/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.770.500.860.620.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.590.810.540.850.640.79
vs Weaker (3)0.330.330.001.000.500.00
Clean sheet %57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D03L01L03L11D10W11D00D01L11DH·INV12/08H·DUN26/08A·ARB02/09H·PAR15/09A·QUE22/09H·RAI30/09A·AIR07/10A·DUN21/10H·MOR28/10A·PAR31/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.970.361.000.620.94
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.521.000.421.080.600.93
vs Weaker (3)0.330.670.000.501.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QueenQueen's Park

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W01L22D02L11D03L00D10W21WH·ARB12/08A·ARB19/08A·PAR26/08A·RAI02/09H·DUN16/09H·AYR22/09A·DUN30/09H·MOR07/10A·AIR20/10H·PAR27/10
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.070.790.860.881.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.811.150.690.920.931.36
vs Weaker (3)1.000.332.000.000.500.50
Clean sheet %33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 25.5 fouls88.4%--------
Under 5.5 cards83.6%--------
Under 23.5 fouls78.2%--------
Over 1.577.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners73.1%--------
Over 2.5 cards70.7%--------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (22)
€11m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
Ayr Utd and Queen's Park have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (7)
€4m
DUN (9)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
Ayr Utd and Queen's Park have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (6)
€3m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Ayr Utd and Queen's Park have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (9)
€4m
DUN (13)
€2m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Ayr Utd and Queen's Park have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
3
AU wins
1
Draws
1
QP wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ayr Utd vs Queen's Park · H/A from AU
DateH/AGameScore
22/09/23AQueen's Park Vs AU2-5
21/04/23HAU Vs Queen's Park0-0
03/02/23AQueen's Park Vs AU2-0
08/10/22HAU Vs Queen's Park5-0
05/08/22AQueen's Park Vs AU2-3

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/10/23APartick Vs AU2-2
28/10/23HAU Vs Morton0-1
21/10/23ADunfermline Vs AU0-1
07/10/23AAirdrie United Vs AU1-2
30/09/23HAU Vs Raith Rovers1-2
22/09/23AQueen's Park Vs AU2-5
15/09/23HAU Vs Partick0-4
02/09/23AArbroath Vs AU2-1
26/08/23HAU Vs Dundee Utd0-3
12/08/23HAU Vs Inverness CT1-0

QueenQueen's Park

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/10/23HQP Vs Partick2-2
20/10/23AAirdrie United Vs QP1-1
07/10/23HQP Vs Morton0-0
30/09/23ADundee Utd Vs QP4-1
22/09/23HQP Vs Ayr Utd2-5
16/09/23HQP Vs Dunfermline0-2
02/09/23ARaith Rovers Vs QP3-2
26/08/23APartick Vs QP3-1
19/08/23AArbroath Vs QP0-1
12/08/23HQP Vs Arbroath2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLD1.45
HomeWLLLL1.29
AwayLWWWD1.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %41%33%48%
AVG goals2.982.583.36
Over 1.5 %80%67%92%
Over 2.5 %61%50%72%
Over 3.5 %39%33%44%
Scored1.531.251.80
Conceded1.451.331.56
BTTS53%38%68%
Clean Sheet27%33%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Queen
Queen's Park
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDDD1.43
HomeWLLDD1.62
AwayWLLLD1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %41%46%36%
AVG goals3.313.083.52
Over 1.5 %84%79%88%
Over 2.5 %63%58%68%
Over 3.5 %43%38%48%
Scored1.631.581.68
Conceded1.671.501.84
BTTS55%58%52%
Clean Sheet27%29%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Dundee UtdDundee Utd48101
62%
2.1
9630+66
2.6
73%
48%
29%
12.0
75%
4.8
58%
21.1
42%
11
4342.00.6
-
2PartickPartick4870
35%
1.5
8774+13
3.4
81%
71%
54%
10.8
67%
3.5
42%
18.7
17%
3
1111.81.5
-
3Raith RoversRaith Rovers3669
56%
1.9
5842+16
2.8
67%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1101.61.2
-
4
RR
Raith Rvs
3669
56%
1.9
5842+16
2.8
67%
56%
31%
10.5
64%
4.3
61%
20.1
33%
0
0001.61.2
-
5Airdrie UnitedAirdrie United4867
40%
1.4
5859-1
2.4
77%
46%
17%
8.8
50%
3.5
42%
20.1
42%
0
0001.21.2
-
6MortonMorton4865
35%
1.4
5753+4
2.3
65%
50%
23%
9.6
50%
5.6
83%
23.7
50%
1
0001.21.1
-
7Inverness CTInverness CT5261
31%
1.2
6260+2
2.3
62%
44%
23%
8.8
33%
3.2
50%
20.3
50%
1
0001.21.2
-
8DunfermlineDunfermline4854
27%
1.1
5465-11
2.5
77%
48%
19%
11.1
67%
3.3
42%
18.2
17%
4
2021.11.4
-
9
A
Ayr
3644
33%
1.2
5361-8
3.2
78%
69%
36%
10.5
50%
3.2
42%
19.8
39%
0
0001.51.7
-
10Ayr UtdAyr Utd3644
33%
1.2
5361-8
3.2
78%
69%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.7
-
11Queens ParkQueens Park3643
31%
1.2
5056-6
2.9
75%
61%
39%
9.4
42%
3.4
42%
18.8
22%
0
0001.41.6
-
12QueenQueen's Park3643
31%
1.2
5056-6
2.9
75%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.6
-
13ArbroathArbroath4831
17%
0.6
44122-78
3.5
90%
77%
44%
10.0
42%
2.4
33%
19.2
50%
1
0000.92.5
-
14Hamilton AcademicalHamilton Academical410
75%
2.5
107+3
4.2
100%
100%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.51.8
-
15Alloa AthleticAlloa Athletic21
0%
0.5
45-1
4.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.5
-
16MontroseMontrose21
0%
0.5
01-1
0.5
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.5
-
Scotland: Championship 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

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