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Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers Result & Analysis

Date: 24/02/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 1-2
Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
Vs
30%
30%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Raith Rovers
Raith Rovers
Scotland: Championship
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ayr Utd win✗ Miss
29.5%
Avg Implied 31.0% · @ 2.98
Edge
-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.7%
Avg Implied 28.2% · @ 3.28
Edge
+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers win✓ Hit
40.7%
Avg Implied 40.9% · @ 2.26
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W44D22D03L13L00D20W21W12L32WH·AIR16/12A·RAI22/12H·DUN30/12A·MOR02/01H·INV06/01A·ARB13/01H·ARB23/01A·QUE27/01H·DUN03/02A·AIR17/02
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.770.861.711.561.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.231.770.831.751.571.79
vs Weaker (4)1.251.751.001.501.502.00
Clean sheet %23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Raith RoversRaith Rovers

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-443W21W10W44D22D21W01L12L23L21WH·PAR08/12A·ARB13/12A·DUN16/12H·AYR22/12H·ARB30/12A·DUN02/01A·AIR06/01H·QUE13/01H·INV27/01H·DUN16/02
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.471.931.731.201.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.621.462.001.771.231.15
vs Weaker (4)1.251.501.501.501.001.50
Clean sheet %13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.3%
Under 1.5
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.0%
@ 1.86-6.1%
Under 2.5
56.0%
@ 1.87+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.9%
Under 3.5
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.5%
No
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
0-1
10.4%
0-0
10.0%
1-2 ✓
8.6%
1-0
8.3%
0-2
7.8%
2-1
7.1%
2-0
5.3%
Ayr Utd goals ↓
Raith Rovers goals →
01234
010%10%7.8%3.5%1.2%
18.3%14%8.6%3.8%1.3%
25.3%7.1%4.7%2.1%0.7%
32.0%2.6%1.7%0.8%0.3%
40.5%0.7%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ayr Utd goals (down), columns = Raith Rovers goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Dundee Utd
2.10
Raith Rvs
1.92
Raith Rovers
1.92
Partick
1.46
Airdrie United
1.40
Morton
1.35
Ayr
1.22
Ayr Utd
1.22
Queens Park
1.19
Queen's Park
1.19
Inverness CT
1.17
Dunfermline
1.12
Arbroath
0.65
Alloa Athletic
0.50
Montrose
0.50
Ayr Utd is 0.69 points worse than Raith Rovers in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.92).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Alloa Athletic
2.00
Dundee Utd
2.00
Partick
1.81
Raith Rvs
1.61
Raith Rovers
1.61
Ayr
1.47
Ayr Utd
1.47
Queens Park
1.39
Queen's Park
1.39
Airdrie United
1.21
Inverness CT
1.19
Morton
1.19
Dunfermline
1.12
Arbroath
0.92
Montrose
0.00
Ayr Utd is 0.14 goals worse than Raith Rovers in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.61).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Montrose
0.50
Dundee Utd
0.62
Morton
1.10
Inverness CT
1.15
Raith Rvs
1.17
Raith Rovers
1.17
Airdrie United
1.23
Dunfermline
1.35
Partick
1.54
Queens Park
1.56
Queen's Park
1.56
Ayr
1.69
Ayr Utd
1.69
Hamilton Academical
1.75
Alloa Athletic
2.50
Arbroath
2.54
Ayr Utd is 0.53 goals worse than Raith Rovers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.69 vs 1.17).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Raith RoversRaith Rovers

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (44)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (6)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Raith RoversRaith Rovers

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (44)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (6)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Arbroath
11.1
Dundee Utd
11.0
Morton
10.9
Dunfermline
10.7
Queens Park
10.4
Ayr
10.4
Raith Rvs
10.2
Montrose
10.1
Partick
10.0
Inverness CT
10.0
Airdrie United
9.9

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Raith Rvs
4.3
Montrose
4.2
Morton
4.1
Dundee Utd
3.9
Arbroath
3.6
Dunfermline
3.6
Partick
3.4
Ayr
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Queens Park
3.3
Inverness CT
2.9

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Morton
22.0
Montrose
21.9
Dundee Utd
21.9
Arbroath
21.0
Partick
20.3
Dunfermline
19.7
Raith Rvs
19.5
Inverness CT
19.4
Ayr
19.1
Airdrie United
18.8
Queens Park
18.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
57.4%
Under 9.5
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
51.4%
Under 3.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
36.7%
Under 21.5
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W12L12L01L01L00D00D10W10W11DH·AIR16/12A·RAI22/12H·DUN30/12A·MOR02/01H·INV06/01A·ARB13/01H·ARB23/01A·QUE27/01H·DUN03/02A·AIR17/02
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.670.430.570.750.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.620.620.420.580.790.64
vs Weaker (4)0.501.000.500.500.501.50
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Raith RoversRaith Rovers

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D00D21W10W11D01L11D13L11DH·PAR08/12A·ARB13/12A·DUN16/12H·AYR22/12H·ARB30/12A·DUN02/01A·AIR06/01H·QUE13/01H·INV27/01H·DUN16/02
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.570.930.530.530.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.810.461.000.380.620.54
vs Weaker (4)0.251.250.501.500.001.00
Clean sheet %57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D32W10W02L12L00D20W11D02L21WH·AIR16/12A·RAI22/12H·DUN30/12A·MOR02/01H·INV06/01A·ARB13/01H·ARB23/01A·QUE27/01H·DUN03/02A·AIR17/02
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.100.431.140.811.06
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.621.150.421.170.791.14
vs Weaker (4)0.750.750.501.001.000.50
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Raith RoversRaith Rovers

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-333D10W10W23L12L10W00D01L10W10WH·PAR08/12A·ARB13/12A·DUN16/12H·AYR22/12H·ARB30/12A·DUN02/01A·AIR06/01H·QUE13/01H·INV27/01H·DUN16/02
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.901.001.200.670.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.811.001.001.380.620.62
vs Weaker (4)1.000.251.000.001.000.50
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 25.5 fouls88.2%--------
Under 5.5 cards82.5%--------
Under 23.5 fouls77.9%--------
Under 3.577.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards72.1%--------
Over 1.571.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (22)
€11m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
Ayr Utd and Raith Rovers have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (7)
€4m
DUN (9)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
Ayr Utd and Raith Rovers have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (6)
€3m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Ayr Utd and Raith Rovers have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (9)
€4m
DUN (13)
€2m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Ayr Utd and Raith Rovers have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
2
AU wins
2
Draws
2
RR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers · H/A from AU
DateH/AGameScore
22/12/23ARaith Rovers Vs AU4-4
30/09/23HAU Vs Raith Rovers1-2
29/04/23HAU Vs Raith Rovers1-0
24/02/23ARaith Rovers Vs AU0-0
03/12/22HAU Vs Raith Rovers2-0
17/09/22ARaith Rovers Vs AU3-2

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/02/24AAirdrie United Vs AU2-3
03/02/24HAU Vs Dundee Utd1-2
27/01/24AQueen's Park Vs AU1-2
23/01/24HAU Vs Arbroath2-0
13/01/24AArbroath Vs AU0-0
06/01/24HAU Vs Inverness CT1-3
02/01/24AMorton Vs AU3-0
30/12/23HAU Vs Dunfermline2-2
22/12/23ARaith Rovers Vs AU4-4
16/12/23HAU Vs Airdrie United1-0

Raith RoversRaith Rovers

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/02/24HRR Vs Dundee Utd2-1
27/01/24HRR Vs Inverness CT2-3
13/01/24HRR Vs Queen's Park1-2
06/01/24AAirdrie United Vs RR1-0
02/01/24ADunfermline Vs RR1-2
30/12/23HRR Vs Arbroath2-2
22/12/23HRR Vs Ayr Utd4-4
16/12/23ADundee Utd Vs RR0-1
13/12/23AArbroath Vs RR1-2
08/12/23HRR Vs Partick4-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLW1.32
HomeWDLWL1.17
AwayDLDWW1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%30%41%
AVG goals2.902.433.30
Over 1.5 %78%70%85%
Over 2.5 %58%48%67%
Over 3.5 %36%26%44%
Scored1.361.001.67
Conceded1.541.431.63
BTTS50%39%59%
Clean Sheet28%35%22%
Corners---
Cards---
Raith Rovers
Raith Rovers
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLW1.56
HomeDDLLW1.64
AwayWWWWL1.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%40%44%
AVG goals2.943.602.28
Over 1.5 %76%88%64%
Over 2.5 %54%64%44%
Over 3.5 %32%48%16%
Scored1.542.041.04
Conceded1.401.561.24
BTTS64%80%48%
Clean Sheet18%20%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Dundee UtdDundee Utd48101
62%
2.1
9630+66
2.6
73%
48%
29%
12.0
75%
4.8
58%
21.1
42%
11
4342.00.6
-
2PartickPartick4870
35%
1.5
8774+13
3.4
81%
71%
54%
10.8
67%
3.5
42%
18.7
17%
3
1111.81.5
-
3Raith RoversRaith Rovers3669
56%
1.9
5842+16
2.8
67%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1101.61.2
-
4
RR
Raith Rvs
3669
56%
1.9
5842+16
2.8
67%
56%
31%
10.5
64%
4.3
61%
20.1
33%
0
0001.61.2
-
5Airdrie UnitedAirdrie United4867
40%
1.4
5859-1
2.4
77%
46%
17%
8.8
50%
3.5
42%
20.1
42%
0
0001.21.2
-
6MortonMorton4865
35%
1.4
5753+4
2.3
65%
50%
23%
9.6
50%
5.6
83%
23.7
50%
1
0001.21.1
-
7Inverness CTInverness CT5261
31%
1.2
6260+2
2.3
62%
44%
23%
8.8
33%
3.2
50%
20.3
50%
1
0001.21.2
-
8DunfermlineDunfermline4854
27%
1.1
5465-11
2.5
77%
48%
19%
11.1
67%
3.3
42%
18.2
17%
4
2021.11.4
-
9
A
Ayr
3644
33%
1.2
5361-8
3.2
78%
69%
36%
10.5
50%
3.2
42%
19.8
39%
0
0001.51.7
-
10Ayr UtdAyr Utd3644
33%
1.2
5361-8
3.2
78%
69%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.7
-
11Queens ParkQueens Park3643
31%
1.2
5056-6
2.9
75%
61%
39%
9.4
42%
3.4
42%
18.8
22%
0
0001.41.6
-
12QueenQueen's Park3643
31%
1.2
5056-6
2.9
75%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.6
-
13ArbroathArbroath4831
17%
0.6
44122-78
3.5
90%
77%
44%
10.0
42%
2.4
33%
19.2
50%
1
0000.92.5
-
14Hamilton AcademicalHamilton Academical410
75%
2.5
107+3
4.2
100%
100%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.51.8
-
15Alloa AthleticAlloa Athletic21
0%
0.5
45-1
4.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.5
-
16MontroseMontrose21
0%
0.5
01-1
0.5
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.5
-
Scotland: Championship 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

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